Recommendation · DraftKings
Ohio State −49.5
- Best book
- DraftKings · −49.5
- Consensus line
- −50.25
- All-Takes line
- −58.01
Evidence gate: intentional model departure. Neither team changed head coaches, so an intentional pre-pace production-model departure is sufficient. The pace adjustment changes the forecast, not whether a bet exists.
Core football model+7.0Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check0.0An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production+0.8Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions0.0Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price+0.8DraftKings has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets22–8
73.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2023Alabama −39.5 vs. Middle Tennessee
+7.6Covered by 9.5 2019Texas A&M −33.25 vs. Texas State
+7.0Covered by 0.8 2022Minnesota −36 vs. New Mexico State
+5.1Covered by 2.0 2017Oklahoma −43.17 vs. UTEP
+3.4Covered by 5.8 2017Clemson −38.17 vs. Kent State
+3.8Covered by 14.8 2022Tennessee −36.25 vs. Ball State
+6.2Covered by 12.8 2025Ole Miss −38.5 vs. Georgia State
+3.1Covered by 17.5 2023Texas −35 vs. Rice
+6.9Missed by 8.0 2018Ohio State −40 vs. Oregon State
+3.3Covered by 6.0 2023Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0 2019Alabama −33.75 vs. Duke
+5.6Covered by 5.3 2024Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0 2022Alabama −42.12 vs. Utah State
+1.8Covered by 12.9 2025Penn State −45.5 vs. Nevada
+1.2Missed by 10.5 2021Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3 2021Tennessee −37.30 vs. Bowling Green
+6.2Missed by 5.3 2023Tennessee −28 vs. Virginia
+6.0Covered by 8.0 2019Michigan −35.62 vs. Middle Tennessee
+2.4Missed by 16.6 2021Texas A&M −29.5 vs. Kent State
+3.9Covered by 1.5 2024Oklahoma −42.5 vs. Temple
+0.5Covered by 5.5 2023Texas A&M −38 vs. New Mexico
+7.2Covered by 4.0 2021Auburn −37.30 vs. Akron
+5.0Covered by 12.7 2024Georgia Tech −20.5 vs. Georgia State
+7.5Covered by 2.5 2021Oklahoma −31.25 vs. Tulane
+2.0Missed by 26.3 2021Wake Forest −32.5 vs. Old Dominion
+1.0Missed by 0.5 2021Pittsburgh −37.60 vs. Massachusetts
+0.2Covered by 6.4 2018Alabama −23.75 vs. Louisville
+4.8Covered by 13.3 2017Memphis −27.17 vs. UL Monroe
+2.0Missed by 19.2 2022Maryland −24 vs. Buffalo
+3.6Missed by 3.0 2022Texas −37.38 vs. UL Monroe
+7.4Covered by 4.6 Recommendation · Bovada
Florida Atlantic +26.5
- Best book
- Bovada · +26.5
- Consensus line
- +26
- All-Takes line
- +18.47
Evidence floor: 2.00 points. A 2.00-point evidence floor applies because at least one team changed head coaches. The coaching signal can cause an abstention; it never flips the model's side. The new pace adjustment is shown in the forecast but does not create a bet.
Core football model+5.6Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check+1.9An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production0.0Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions0.0Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price+0.5Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets19–11
63.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2023Colorado +20.5 at TCU
+3.9Covered by 23.5 2022UConn +23.75 at Utah State
+2.9Covered by 12.8 2019Vanderbilt +22.62 vs. Georgia
+6.3Missed by 1.4 2018Kent State +18.12 at Illinois
+3.7Covered by 11.1 2019Florida Atlantic +27.62 at Ohio State
+3.5Covered by 3.6 2019Kent State +24.5 at Arizona State
+2.8Covered by 1.5 2018Army +13.88 at Duke
+4.6Missed by 6.1 2024Western Michigan +24 at Wisconsin
+2.8Covered by 10.0 2025Jacksonville State +16.5 at UCF
+3.0Covered by 9.5 2023San José State +30.5 at USC
+3.3Covered by 2.5 2022Hawai'i +16.5 vs. Western Kentucky
+7.0Missed by 15.5 2017Rutgers +28 vs. Washington
+4.4Covered by 12.0 2018Massachusetts +20.38 at Boston College
+2.5Missed by 13.6 2023Utah State +23.5 at Iowa
+4.4Covered by 13.5 2022Memphis +17 at Mississippi State
+2.8Missed by 9.0 2025Western Michigan +18.5 at Michigan State
+2.9Covered by 1.5 2024Nevada +27 vs. SMU
+3.0Covered by 22.0 2021New Mexico State +31.20 at San Diego State
+2.2Covered by 13.2 2022Bowling Green +24 at UCLA
+2.3Missed by 4.0 2019Louisville +19.25 vs. Notre Dame
+3.1Covered by 1.3 2021Hawai'i +17.60 at UCLA
+3.1Missed by 16.4 2023Louisiana Tech +20 at SMU
+2.7Missed by 4.0 2018Rice +25.88 vs. Houston
+2.3Covered by 7.9 2024Old Dominion +20 at South Carolina
+2.5Covered by 16.0 2017San José State +21 vs. South Florida
+3.4Covered by 1.0 2017Rice +31.17 vs. Stanford
+5.0Missed by 23.8 2019Louisiana +19 vs. Mississippi State
+3.4Covered by 9.0 2017Nevada +24 at Northwestern
+4.1Covered by 13.0 2021Miami +19.5 vs. Alabama
+3.9Missed by 11.5 2019Massachusetts +16.67 at Rutgers
+2.3Missed by 10.3 Recommendation · DraftKings
Nevada +4
- Best book
- DraftKings · +4
- Consensus line
- +3.25
- All-Takes line
- −4.60
Evidence gate: intentional model departure. Neither team changed head coaches, so an intentional pre-pace production-model departure is sufficient. The pace adjustment changes the forecast, not whether a bet exists.
Core football model+7.0Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check+0.0An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production0.0Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions+0.8Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price+0.8DraftKings has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets16–14
53.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2022Nevada +2 vs. Texas State
+6.9Covered by 26.0 2023Jacksonville State +1.17 vs. UTEP
+5.9Covered by 4.2 2022Arizona +6.25 at San Diego State
+4.1Covered by 24.3 2022Hawai'i +16.5 vs. Western Kentucky
+7.0Missed by 15.5 2024Georgia Tech +11.5 vs. Florida State
+5.8Covered by 14.5 2019SMU +1.75 at Arkansas State
+4.0Covered by 8.8 2018LSU +3.12 vs. Miami
+5.1Covered by 19.1 2025UTEP +3.5 at Utah State
+3.5Missed by 8.5 2024West Virginia +10 vs. Penn State
+2.9Missed by 12.0 2023Northern Illinois +8.5 at Boston College
+3.0Covered by 11.5 2018Army +13.88 at Duke
+4.6Missed by 6.1 2022East Carolina +12.5 vs. NC State
+2.8Covered by 11.5 2023North Texas +6.5 vs. California
+2.1Missed by 30.5 2022Florida State +4.5 vs. LSU
+3.3Covered by 5.5 2019Vanderbilt +22.62 vs. Georgia
+6.3Missed by 1.4 2022Army +1.5 at Coastal Carolina
+3.2Missed by 8.5 2024Sam Houston +10.5 at Rice
+6.0Covered by 30.5 2018Northwestern +1 at Purdue
+2.6Covered by 5.0 2022Temple +9.5 at Duke
+2.4Missed by 20.5 2021Army +2.5 at Georgia State
+4.0Covered by 35.5 2021West Virginia −2.5 at Maryland
+4.3Missed by 8.5 2023Florida International +10 at Louisiana Tech
+5.5Covered by 5.0 2025Notre Dame −2.5 at Miami
+4.8Missed by 5.5 2019Louisville +19.25 vs. Notre Dame
+3.1Covered by 1.3 2025Stanford +1.5 at Hawai'i
+4.0Missed by 1.5 2022Utah −2.5 at Florida
+3.9Missed by 5.5 2017California +12.5 at North Carolina
+2.7Covered by 17.5 2017Florida Atlantic +8.67 vs. Navy
+2.3Missed by 14.3 2025Sam Houston +13.5 vs. UNLV
+3.8Missed by 3.5 2018Maryland +12.62 vs. Texas
+2.6Covered by 17.6 Recommendation · Bovada
Florida State +2.5
- Best book
- Bovada · +2.5
- Consensus line
- +2.5
- All-Takes line
- −5.67
Evidence gate: intentional model departure. Neither team changed head coaches, so an intentional pre-pace production-model departure is sufficient. The pace adjustment changes the forecast, not whether a bet exists.
Core football model+7.0Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check0.0An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production+0.5Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions+0.7Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price0.0Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets16–14
53.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2022Nevada +2 vs. Texas State
+6.9Covered by 26.0 2023Jacksonville State +1.17 vs. UTEP
+5.9Covered by 4.2 2022Arizona +6.25 at San Diego State
+4.1Covered by 24.3 2018LSU +3.12 vs. Miami
+5.1Covered by 19.1 2022Hawai'i +16.5 vs. Western Kentucky
+7.0Missed by 15.5 2024Georgia Tech +11.5 vs. Florida State
+5.8Covered by 14.5 2019SMU +1.75 at Arkansas State
+4.0Covered by 8.8 2025UTEP +3.5 at Utah State
+3.5Missed by 8.5 2024Sam Houston +10.5 at Rice
+6.0Covered by 30.5 2023Northern Illinois +8.5 at Boston College
+3.0Covered by 11.5 2024West Virginia +10 vs. Penn State
+2.9Missed by 12.0 2018Army +13.88 at Duke
+4.6Missed by 6.1 2022Army +1.5 at Coastal Carolina
+3.2Missed by 8.5 2021Army +2.5 at Georgia State
+4.0Covered by 35.5 2022East Carolina +12.5 vs. NC State
+2.8Covered by 11.5 2023Florida International +10 at Louisiana Tech
+5.5Covered by 5.0 2023North Texas +6.5 vs. California
+2.1Missed by 30.5 2022Florida State +4.5 vs. LSU
+3.3Covered by 5.5 2019Vanderbilt +22.62 vs. Georgia
+6.3Missed by 1.4 2025Stanford +1.5 at Hawai'i
+4.0Missed by 1.5 2018Northwestern +1 at Purdue
+2.6Covered by 5.0 2021West Virginia −2.5 at Maryland
+4.3Missed by 8.5 2022Temple +9.5 at Duke
+2.4Missed by 20.5 2025Notre Dame −2.5 at Miami
+4.8Missed by 5.5 2022Utah −2.5 at Florida
+3.9Missed by 5.5 2017Alabama −7.33 vs. Florida State
+7.6Covered by 9.7 2017California +12.5 at North Carolina
+2.7Covered by 17.5 2019Louisville +19.25 vs. Notre Dame
+3.1Covered by 1.3 2025Sam Houston +13.5 vs. UNLV
+3.8Missed by 3.5 2017Florida Atlantic +8.67 vs. Navy
+2.3Missed by 14.3 Recommendation · DraftKings
South Carolina −34.5
- Best book
- DraftKings · −34.5
- Consensus line
- −35.5
- All-Takes line
- −41.73
Evidence gate: intentional model departure. Neither team changed head coaches, so an intentional pre-pace production-model departure is sufficient. The pace adjustment changes the forecast, not whether a bet exists.
Core football model+5.1Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check0.0An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production+1.2Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions0.0Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price+1.0DraftKings has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets22–8
73.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2022Minnesota −36 vs. New Mexico State
+5.1Covered by 2.0 2019Texas A&M −33.25 vs. Texas State
+7.0Covered by 0.8 2023Alabama −39.5 vs. Middle Tennessee
+7.6Covered by 9.5 2017Clemson −38.17 vs. Kent State
+3.8Covered by 14.8 2023Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0 2023Texas −35 vs. Rice
+6.9Missed by 8.0 2024Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0 2021Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3 2025Ole Miss −38.5 vs. Georgia State
+3.1Covered by 17.5 2019Alabama −33.75 vs. Duke
+5.6Covered by 5.3 2022Tennessee −36.25 vs. Ball State
+6.2Covered by 12.8 2017Oklahoma −43.17 vs. UTEP
+3.4Covered by 5.8 2018Ohio State −40 vs. Oregon State
+3.3Covered by 6.0 2023Tennessee −28 vs. Virginia
+6.0Covered by 8.0 2021Texas A&M −29.5 vs. Kent State
+3.9Covered by 1.5 2024Georgia Tech −20.5 vs. Georgia State
+7.5Covered by 2.5 2019Michigan −35.62 vs. Middle Tennessee
+2.4Missed by 16.6 2021Tennessee −37.30 vs. Bowling Green
+6.2Missed by 5.3 2019Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6 2021Auburn −37.30 vs. Akron
+5.0Covered by 12.7 2017Memphis −27.17 vs. UL Monroe
+2.0Missed by 19.2 2022Alabama −42.12 vs. Utah State
+1.8Covered by 12.9 2022Maryland −24 vs. Buffalo
+3.6Missed by 3.0 2018Alabama −23.75 vs. Louisville
+4.8Covered by 13.3 2022Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3 2023Texas A&M −38 vs. New Mexico
+7.2Covered by 4.0 2021Oklahoma −31.25 vs. Tulane
+2.0Missed by 26.3 2025Purdue −16.5 vs. Ball State
+4.5Covered by 14.5 2021Wake Forest −32.5 vs. Old Dominion
+1.0Missed by 0.5 2025Penn State −45.5 vs. Nevada
+1.2Missed by 10.5 Recommendation · DraftKings
Jacksonville State +10
- Best book
- DraftKings · +10
- Consensus line
- +8.5
- All-Takes line
- +2.68
Evidence floor: 2.00 points. A 2.00-point evidence floor applies because at least one team changed head coaches. The coaching signal can cause an abstention; it never flips the model's side. The new pace adjustment is shown in the forecast but does not create a bet.
Core football model+2.8Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check+2.5An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production0.0Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions+0.4Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price+1.5DraftKings has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets18–12
60.0% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2018Army +13.88 at Duke
+4.6Missed by 6.1 2025Jacksonville State +16.5 at UCF
+3.0Covered by 9.5 2021East Carolina +9.20 at App State
+2.2Missed by 4.8 2025Stanford +1.5 at Hawai'i
+4.0Missed by 1.5 2023Jacksonville State +1.17 vs. UTEP
+5.9Covered by 4.2 2022North Carolina +3 at App State
+3.1Covered by 5.0 2025Toledo +10 at Kentucky
+1.5Covered by 2.0 2019SMU +1.75 at Arkansas State
+4.0Covered by 8.8 2020South Alabama +12.40 at Southern Miss
+3.0Covered by 23.4 2025Northwestern +6.5 at Tulane
+1.7Missed by 13.5 2022Arizona +6.25 at San Diego State
+4.1Covered by 24.3 2025Western Michigan +18.5 at Michigan State
+2.9Covered by 1.5 2018Troy +9.12 vs. Boise State
+1.3Missed by 26.9 2022West Virginia +7.5 at Pittsburgh
+4.3Covered by 0.5 2024West Virginia +10 vs. Penn State
+2.9Missed by 12.0 2023Northern Illinois +8.5 at Boston College
+3.0Covered by 11.5 2019Fresno State +14.12 at USC
+2.9Covered by 6.1 2024Nevada +15.5 at Troy
+2.1Covered by 17.5 2025UTEP +3.5 at Utah State
+3.5Missed by 8.5 2022Nevada +2 vs. Texas State
+6.9Covered by 26.0 2022Temple +9.5 at Duke
+2.4Missed by 20.5 2018Kent State +18.12 at Illinois
+3.7Covered by 11.1 2025Rice +14.5 at Louisiana
+4.4Covered by 16.5 2018Texas State +16.5 at Rutgers
+1.0Missed by 11.5 2022East Carolina +12.5 vs. NC State
+2.8Covered by 11.5 2024Boston College +16.5 at Florida State
+3.7Covered by 31.5 2018Tennessee +9.88 vs. West Virginia
+3.5Missed by 16.1 2022Memphis +17 at Mississippi State
+2.8Missed by 9.0 2017Arkansas State +14.5 at Nebraska
+2.5Covered by 7.5 2022Army +1.5 at Coastal Carolina
+3.2Missed by 8.5 Recommendation · Bovada
Oklahoma −40.5
- Best book
- Bovada · −40.5
- Consensus line
- −40.5
- All-Takes line
- −47.28
Evidence gate: intentional model departure. Neither team changed head coaches, so an intentional pre-pace production-model departure is sufficient. The pace adjustment changes the forecast, not whether a bet exists.
Core football model+5.6Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check0.0An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production+1.1Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions0.0Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price0.0Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets23–7
76.7% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2022Minnesota −36 vs. New Mexico State
+5.1Covered by 2.0 2023Alabama −39.5 vs. Middle Tennessee
+7.6Covered by 9.5 2019Texas A&M −33.25 vs. Texas State
+7.0Covered by 0.8 2017Clemson −38.17 vs. Kent State
+3.8Covered by 14.8 2023Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0 2023Texas −35 vs. Rice
+6.9Missed by 8.0 2024Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0 2017Oklahoma −43.17 vs. UTEP
+3.4Covered by 5.8 2025Ole Miss −38.5 vs. Georgia State
+3.1Covered by 17.5 2019Alabama −33.75 vs. Duke
+5.6Covered by 5.3 2022Tennessee −36.25 vs. Ball State
+6.2Covered by 12.8 2018Ohio State −40 vs. Oregon State
+3.3Covered by 6.0 2021Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3 2023Tennessee −28 vs. Virginia
+6.0Covered by 8.0 2021Tennessee −37.30 vs. Bowling Green
+6.2Missed by 5.3 2019Michigan −35.62 vs. Middle Tennessee
+2.4Missed by 16.6 2023Texas A&M −38 vs. New Mexico
+7.2Covered by 4.0 2021Auburn −37.30 vs. Akron
+5.0Covered by 12.7 2025Penn State −45.5 vs. Nevada
+1.2Missed by 10.5 2022Alabama −42.12 vs. Utah State
+1.8Covered by 12.9 2024Georgia Tech −20.5 vs. Georgia State
+7.5Covered by 2.5 2021Texas A&M −29.5 vs. Kent State
+3.9Covered by 1.5 2024Oklahoma −42.5 vs. Temple
+0.5Covered by 5.5 2018Alabama −23.75 vs. Louisville
+4.8Covered by 13.3 2017Memphis −27.17 vs. UL Monroe
+2.0Missed by 19.2 2021Wake Forest −32.5 vs. Old Dominion
+1.0Missed by 0.5 2021Kentucky −31.10 vs. UL Monroe
+5.2Covered by 3.9 2019Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6 2021Oklahoma −31.25 vs. Tulane
+2.0Missed by 26.3 2022Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3 Recommendation · Bovada
Hawai'i +5.5
- Best book
- Bovada · +5.5
- Consensus line
- +4.25
- All-Takes line
- −1.64
Evidence floor: 2.00 points. A 2.00-point evidence floor applies because at least one team changed head coaches. The coaching signal can cause an abstention; it never flips the model's side. The new pace adjustment is shown in the forecast but does not create a bet.
Core football model+4.1Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check0.0An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production+1.0Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions+0.7Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price+1.3Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets21–9
70.0% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2021Army +2.5 at Georgia State
+4.0Covered by 35.5 2022Arizona +6.25 at San Diego State
+4.1Covered by 24.3 2022Army +1.5 at Coastal Carolina
+3.2Missed by 8.5 2024Sam Houston +10.5 at Rice
+6.0Covered by 30.5 2023Northern Illinois +8.5 at Boston College
+3.0Covered by 11.5 2025Stanford +1.5 at Hawai'i
+4.0Missed by 1.5 2019SMU +1.75 at Arkansas State
+4.0Covered by 8.8 2025UTEP +3.5 at Utah State
+3.5Missed by 8.5 2025Rice +14.5 at Louisiana
+4.4Covered by 16.5 2022Nevada +2 vs. Texas State
+6.9Covered by 26.0 2022Temple +9.5 at Duke
+2.4Missed by 20.5 2018Army +13.88 at Duke
+4.6Missed by 6.1 2025LSU +3.5 at Clemson
+2.3Covered by 10.5 2023Florida International +10 at Louisiana Tech
+5.5Covered by 5.0 2025California +3 at Oregon State
+2.5Covered by 22.0 2022Rutgers +9 at Boston College
+5.3Covered by 10.0 2018San Diego State +13.75 at Stanford
+2.6Missed by 7.3 2018Northwestern +1 at Purdue
+2.6Covered by 5.0 2022West Virginia +7.5 at Pittsburgh
+4.3Covered by 0.5 2024Eastern Michigan +2.5 at Massachusetts
+1.9Covered by 16.5 2019Fresno State +14.12 at USC
+2.9Covered by 6.1 2017Ball State +5.33 at Illinois
+4.7Covered by 2.3 2017California +12.5 at North Carolina
+2.7Covered by 17.5 2018LSU +3.12 vs. Miami
+5.1Covered by 19.1 2017App State +12.5 at Georgia
+3.4Missed by 8.5 2024West Virginia +10 vs. Penn State
+2.9Missed by 12.0 2017Arkansas State +14.5 at Nebraska
+2.5Covered by 7.5 2023Jacksonville State +1.17 vs. UTEP
+5.9Covered by 4.2 2024Coastal Carolina +3.5 at Jacksonville State
+1.5Covered by 31.5 2017Bowling Green +17.17 at Michigan State
+3.8Missed by 7.8 Recommendation · Bovada
Memphis +5.5
- Best book
- Bovada · +5.5
- Consensus line
- +4.25
- All-Takes line
- −0.87
Evidence floor: 2.00 points. A 2.00-point evidence floor applies because at least one team changed head coaches. The coaching signal can cause an abstention; it never flips the model's side. The new pace adjustment is shown in the forecast but does not create a bet.
Core football model+4.1Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check0.0An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production+0.8Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions+0.2Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price+1.3Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets18–12
60.0% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2025UTEP +3.5 at Utah State
+3.5Missed by 8.5 2019SMU +1.75 at Arkansas State
+4.0Covered by 8.8 2022Army +1.5 at Coastal Carolina
+3.2Missed by 8.5 2023Northern Illinois +8.5 at Boston College
+3.0Covered by 11.5 2025LSU +3.5 at Clemson
+2.3Covered by 10.5 2022Arizona +6.25 at San Diego State
+4.1Covered by 24.3 2021Army +2.5 at Georgia State
+4.0Covered by 35.5 2017California +12.5 at North Carolina
+2.7Covered by 17.5 2022Temple +9.5 at Duke
+2.4Missed by 20.5 2025Stanford +1.5 at Hawai'i
+4.0Missed by 1.5 2023Florida International +10 at Louisiana Tech
+5.5Covered by 5.0 2018SMU +3.5 at North Texas
+3.2Missed by 19.5 2017Troy +10.5 at Boise State
+1.9Missed by 0.5 2024Coastal Carolina +3.5 at Jacksonville State
+1.5Covered by 31.5 2019Florida International +3 at Tulane
+1.4Missed by 25.0 2024Sam Houston +10.5 at Rice
+6.0Covered by 30.5 2018Northwestern +1 at Purdue
+2.6Covered by 5.0 2022Nevada +2 vs. Texas State
+6.9Covered by 26.0 2023North Texas +6.5 vs. California
+2.1Missed by 30.5 2018Cincinnati +14.25 at UCLA
+4.5Covered by 23.3 2017Arkansas State +14.5 at Nebraska
+2.5Covered by 7.5 2024North Carolina +2.5 at Minnesota
+1.3Covered by 4.5 2018Kent State +18.12 at Illinois
+3.7Covered by 11.1 2020South Alabama +12.40 at Southern Miss
+3.0Covered by 23.4 2022Boise State +1.62 at Oregon State
+1.1Missed by 15.4 2024West Virginia +10 vs. Penn State
+2.9Missed by 12.0 2018San Diego State +13.75 at Stanford
+2.6Missed by 7.3 2022Georgia State +12.5 at South Carolina
+1.6Missed by 8.5 2017Texas A&M +6.33 at UCLA
+1.0Covered by 5.3 2024Eastern Michigan +2.5 at Massachusetts
+1.9Covered by 16.5 Recommendation · DraftKings
Auburn −6.5
- Best book
- DraftKings · −6.5
- Consensus line
- −6.75
- All-Takes line
- −12.93
Evidence floor: 2.00 points. A 2.00-point evidence floor applies because at least one team changed head coaches. The coaching signal can cause an abstention; it never flips the model's side. The new pace adjustment is shown in the forecast but does not create a bet.
Core football model+5.6Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check0.0An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production0.0Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions+0.6Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price+0.3DraftKings has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets21–9
70.0% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2021Kansas State −3.20 vs. Stanford
+4.2Covered by 13.8 2024LSU −4 vs. USC
+5.3Missed by 11.0 2025Tennessee −13.5 vs. Syracuse
+5.6Covered by 5.5 2019Colorado −12.62 vs. Colorado State
+4.1Covered by 8.4 2022Georgia −16 vs. Oregon
+7.0Covered by 30.0 2024Georgia −14 vs. Clemson
+6.3Covered by 17.0 2017Colorado −3 vs. Colorado State
+3.7Covered by 11.0 2017Alabama −7.33 vs. Florida State
+7.6Covered by 9.7 2017LSU −14.67 vs. BYU
+4.4Covered by 12.3 2018Auburn −1.5 vs. Washington
+4.0Covered by 3.5 2025Kansas State −3.5 vs. Iowa State
+5.2Missed by 6.5 2018Alabama −23.75 vs. Louisville
+4.8Covered by 13.3 2021West Virginia −2.5 at Maryland
+4.3Missed by 8.5 2019Florida −7 vs. Miami
+3.1Missed by 3.0 2017Colorado State −3.5 vs. Oregon State
+3.9Covered by 27.5 2022Utah −2.5 at Florida
+3.9Missed by 5.5 2025Notre Dame −2.5 at Miami
+4.8Missed by 5.5 2025South Carolina −8.5 vs. Virginia Tech
+2.4Covered by 4.5 2019Auburn −3.62 vs. Oregon
+1.0Covered by 2.4 2025TCU −3 at North Carolina
+3.2Covered by 31.0 2023Notre Dame −20 vs. Navy
+3.3Covered by 19.0 2024Georgia Tech −20.5 vs. Georgia State
+7.5Covered by 2.5 2017Virginia Tech −4.67 vs. West Virginia
+1.9Covered by 2.3 2019Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6 2024Northwestern −4 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.5Covered by 3.0 2018Wyoming −5 at New Mexico State
+3.2Covered by 17.0 2021Notre Dame −7.30 at Florida State
+2.9Missed by 4.3 2021Duke −6.40 at Charlotte
+2.9Missed by 9.4 2023Tennessee −28 vs. Virginia
+6.0Covered by 8.0 2022Florida Atlantic −6 at Ohio
+2.8Missed by 9.0 Recommendation · DraftKings
TCU −6.5
- Best book
- DraftKings · −6.5
- Consensus line
- −7
- All-Takes line
- −12.97
Evidence gate: intentional model departure. Neither team changed head coaches, so an intentional pre-pace production-model departure is sufficient. The pace adjustment changes the forecast, not whether a bet exists.
Core football model+5.3Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check0.0An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production0.0Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions+0.6Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price+0.5DraftKings has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets22–8
73.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2025Tennessee −13.5 vs. Syracuse
+5.6Covered by 5.5 2024Georgia −14 vs. Clemson
+6.3Covered by 17.0 2021Kansas State −3.20 vs. Stanford
+4.2Covered by 13.8 2017LSU −14.67 vs. BYU
+4.4Covered by 12.3 2019Colorado −12.62 vs. Colorado State
+4.1Covered by 8.4 2022Georgia −16 vs. Oregon
+7.0Covered by 30.0 2017Alabama −7.33 vs. Florida State
+7.6Covered by 9.7 2018Auburn −1.5 vs. Washington
+4.0Covered by 3.5 2019Florida −7 vs. Miami
+3.1Missed by 3.0 2025Kansas State −3.5 vs. Iowa State
+5.2Missed by 6.5 2024Northwestern −4 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.5Covered by 3.0 2024LSU −4 vs. USC
+5.3Missed by 11.0 2025South Carolina −8.5 vs. Virginia Tech
+2.4Covered by 4.5 2023Notre Dame −20 vs. Navy
+3.3Covered by 19.0 2022Utah −2.5 at Florida
+3.9Missed by 5.5 2025Notre Dame −2.5 at Miami
+4.8Missed by 5.5 2018Wyoming −5 at New Mexico State
+3.2Covered by 17.0 2021West Virginia −2.5 at Maryland
+4.3Missed by 8.5 2019Auburn −3.62 vs. Oregon
+1.0Covered by 2.4 2017Colorado −3 vs. Colorado State
+3.7Covered by 11.0 2024James Madison −7.5 at Charlotte
+2.6Covered by 15.5 2025Alabama −13.5 at Florida State
+3.0Missed by 27.5 2018LSU +3.12 vs. Miami
+5.1Covered by 19.1 2019Utah −6.12 at BYU
+3.8Covered by 11.9 2017Virginia Tech −4.67 vs. West Virginia
+1.9Covered by 2.3 2018Alabama −23.75 vs. Louisville
+4.8Covered by 13.3 2022Florida Atlantic −6 at Ohio
+2.8Missed by 9.0 2025TCU −3 at North Carolina
+3.2Covered by 31.0 2022Illinois −14 vs. Wyoming
+2.9Covered by 18.0 2018Iowa −9.25 vs. Northern Illinois
+1.8Covered by 16.8 Recommendation · DraftKings
Texas A&M −38.5
- Best book
- DraftKings · −38.5
- Consensus line
- −39
- All-Takes line
- −44.15
Evidence floor: 2.00 points. A 2.00-point evidence floor applies because at least one team changed head coaches. The coaching signal can cause an abstention; it never flips the model's side. The new pace adjustment is shown in the forecast but does not create a bet.
Core football model+4.1Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check0.0An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production+1.1Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions0.0Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price+0.5DraftKings has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets21–9
70.0% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2017Clemson −38.17 vs. Kent State
+3.8Covered by 14.8 2022Minnesota −36 vs. New Mexico State
+5.1Covered by 2.0 2023Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0 2024Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0 2025Ole Miss −38.5 vs. Georgia State
+3.1Covered by 17.5 2023Alabama −39.5 vs. Middle Tennessee
+7.6Covered by 9.5 2017Oklahoma −43.17 vs. UTEP
+3.4Covered by 5.8 2023Texas −35 vs. Rice
+6.9Missed by 8.0 2018Ohio State −40 vs. Oregon State
+3.3Covered by 6.0 2019Texas A&M −33.25 vs. Texas State
+7.0Covered by 0.8 2021Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3 2019Michigan −35.62 vs. Middle Tennessee
+2.4Missed by 16.6 2019Alabama −33.75 vs. Duke
+5.6Covered by 5.3 2022Alabama −42.12 vs. Utah State
+1.8Covered by 12.9 2025Penn State −45.5 vs. Nevada
+1.2Missed by 10.5 2022Tennessee −36.25 vs. Ball State
+6.2Covered by 12.8 2021Texas A&M −29.5 vs. Kent State
+3.9Covered by 1.5 2024Oklahoma −42.5 vs. Temple
+0.5Covered by 5.5 2021Wake Forest −32.5 vs. Old Dominion
+1.0Missed by 0.5 2021Pittsburgh −37.60 vs. Massachusetts
+0.2Covered by 6.4 2021Auburn −37.30 vs. Akron
+5.0Covered by 12.7 2017Memphis −27.17 vs. UL Monroe
+2.0Missed by 19.2 2021Oklahoma −31.25 vs. Tulane
+2.0Missed by 26.3 2017Wisconsin −27.33 vs. Utah State
+0.9Covered by 21.7 2023Tennessee −28 vs. Virginia
+6.0Covered by 8.0 2021Tennessee −37.30 vs. Bowling Green
+6.2Missed by 5.3 2024Kentucky −25.5 vs. Southern Miss
+0.9Covered by 5.5 2022Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3 2022Maryland −24 vs. Buffalo
+3.6Missed by 3.0 2019Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0 Recommendation · Bovada
Notre Dame −20.5
- Best book
- Bovada · −20.5
- Consensus line
- −20.5
- All-Takes line
- −26.14
Evidence gate: intentional model departure. Neither team changed head coaches, so an intentional pre-pace production-model departure is sufficient. The pace adjustment changes the forecast, not whether a bet exists.
Core football model+5.1Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check+0.5An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production0.0Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions0.0Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price0.0Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets26–4
86.7% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2017LSU −14.67 vs. BYU
+4.4Covered by 12.3 2024Georgia −14 vs. Clemson
+6.3Covered by 17.0 2025Tennessee −13.5 vs. Syracuse
+5.6Covered by 5.5 2023Notre Dame −20 vs. Navy
+3.3Covered by 19.0 2022Georgia −16 vs. Oregon
+7.0Covered by 30.0 2023Tennessee −28 vs. Virginia
+6.0Covered by 8.0 2019Colorado −12.62 vs. Colorado State
+4.1Covered by 8.4 2018Alabama −23.75 vs. Louisville
+4.8Covered by 13.3 2019Alabama −33.75 vs. Duke
+5.6Covered by 5.3 2024Georgia Tech −20.5 vs. Georgia State
+7.5Covered by 2.5 2019Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6 2022Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3 2017Alabama −7.33 vs. Florida State
+7.6Covered by 9.7 2025Purdue −16.5 vs. Ball State
+4.5Covered by 14.5 2019Florida −7 vs. Miami
+3.1Missed by 3.0 2021Kansas State −3.20 vs. Stanford
+4.2Covered by 13.8 2021Cincinnati −22.30 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.2Covered by 12.7 2025Alabama −13.5 at Florida State
+3.0Missed by 27.5 2022Illinois −14 vs. Wyoming
+2.9Covered by 18.0 2019Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0 2021Arkansas −19.60 vs. Rice
+2.8Covered by 1.4 2025South Carolina −8.5 vs. Virginia Tech
+2.4Covered by 4.5 2024Maryland −20.5 vs. UConn
+1.4Covered by 22.5 2022Minnesota −36 vs. New Mexico State
+5.1Covered by 2.0 2024Syracuse −17.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 1.5 2024Northwestern −4 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.5Covered by 3.0 2019Texas A&M −33.25 vs. Texas State
+7.0Covered by 0.8 2018Auburn −1.5 vs. Washington
+4.0Covered by 3.5 2024Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0 2023Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0 Recommendation · DraftKings
Miami −21.5
- Best book
- DraftKings · −21.5
- Consensus line
- −22.5
- All-Takes line
- −26.94
Evidence floor: 2.00 points. A 2.00-point evidence floor applies because at least one team changed head coaches. The coaching signal can cause an abstention; it never flips the model's side. The new pace adjustment is shown in the forecast but does not create a bet.
Core football model+2.8Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check0.0An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production+1.7Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions0.0Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price+1.0DraftKings has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets18–12
60.0% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2025Purdue −16.5 vs. Ball State
+4.5Covered by 14.5 2024Syracuse −17.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 1.5 2021Mississippi State −20.90 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.9Missed by 19.9 2021Baylor −13.60 at Texas State
+5.3Missed by 4.6 2025Arizona −13.5 vs. Hawai'i
+3.5Covered by 20.5 2025Minnesota −16.5 vs. Buffalo
+2.4Missed by 3.5 2025Kansas −14 vs. Fresno State
+2.3Covered by 10.0 2025Texas State −14 vs. Eastern Michigan
+4.5Covered by 11.0 2021NC State −19.70 vs. South Florida
+2.7Covered by 25.3 2025Wisconsin −17.5 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.0Missed by 0.5 2022Illinois −14 vs. Wyoming
+2.9Covered by 18.0 2024Virginia Tech −13.5 at Vanderbilt
+1.7Missed by 20.5 2025Alabama −13.5 at Florida State
+3.0Missed by 27.5 2024Michigan State −11.5 vs. Florida Atlantic
+2.6Missed by 5.5 2019Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6 2024Pittsburgh −23.5 vs. Kent State
+1.2Covered by 7.5 2025Rutgers −11.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 8.5 2021Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3 2019Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0 2025Washington −20.5 vs. Colorado State
+0.9Missed by 3.5 2025Mississippi State −11.5 at Southern Miss
+2.2Covered by 5.5 2021Cincinnati −22.30 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.2Covered by 12.7 2022Kentucky −15.5 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.4Covered by 8.5 2022Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3 2024Maryland −20.5 vs. UConn
+1.4Covered by 22.5 2019Utah −6.12 at BYU
+3.8Covered by 11.9 2024Indiana −20.5 vs. Florida International
+5.0Covered by 3.5 2024Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0 2024Kentucky −25.5 vs. Southern Miss
+0.9Covered by 5.5 2025Texas A&M −21.5 vs. UTSA
+4.8Missed by 3.5 Recommendation · Bovada
Boise State +24.5
- Best book
- Bovada · +24.5
- Consensus line
- +24.5
- All-Takes line
- +19.36
Evidence gate: intentional model departure. Neither team changed head coaches, so an intentional pre-pace production-model departure is sufficient. The pace adjustment changes the forecast, not whether a bet exists.
Core football model+2.4Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check+2.2An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production+0.5Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions0.0Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price0.0Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets23–7
76.7% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2022UConn +23.75 at Utah State
+2.9Covered by 12.8 2025Jacksonville State +16.5 at UCF
+3.0Covered by 9.5 2025Western Michigan +18.5 at Michigan State
+2.9Covered by 1.5 2021New Mexico State +31.20 at San Diego State
+2.2Covered by 13.2 2018Kent State +18.12 at Illinois
+3.7Covered by 11.1 2022Bowling Green +24 at UCLA
+2.3Missed by 4.0 2019Kent State +24.5 at Arizona State
+2.8Covered by 1.5 2024Kennesaw State +24 at UTSA
+2.2Covered by 12.0 2018Army +13.88 at Duke
+4.6Missed by 6.1 2023Colorado +20.5 at TCU
+3.9Covered by 23.5 2019Florida Atlantic +27.62 at Ohio State
+3.5Covered by 3.6 2018New Mexico State +21.5 at Minnesota
+1.5Missed by 16.5 2024Boston College +16.5 at Florida State
+3.7Covered by 31.5 2020South Alabama +12.40 at Southern Miss
+3.0Covered by 23.4 2022Memphis +17 at Mississippi State
+2.8Missed by 9.0 2024Western Michigan +24 at Wisconsin
+2.8Covered by 10.0 2018Massachusetts +20.38 at Boston College
+2.5Missed by 13.6 2024Old Dominion +20 at South Carolina
+2.5Covered by 16.0 2019Fresno State +14.12 at USC
+2.9Covered by 6.1 2018Utah State +23.5 at Michigan State
+2.6Covered by 16.5 2024Nevada +15.5 at Troy
+2.1Covered by 17.5 2018Hawai'i +17.12 at Colorado State
+3.2Covered by 26.1 2018Rice +25.88 vs. Houston
+2.3Covered by 7.9 2018Texas State +16.5 at Rutgers
+1.0Missed by 11.5 2023Utah State +23.5 at Iowa
+4.4Covered by 13.5 2019Miami (OH) +24.25 at Iowa
+1.2Covered by 0.3 2019Georgia Southern +27.12 at LSU
+2.1Missed by 24.9 2017Rutgers +28 vs. Washington
+4.4Covered by 12.0 2018Central Michigan +17.5 at Kentucky
+1.3Covered by 2.5 2025Rice +14.5 at Louisiana
+4.4Covered by 16.5 Recommendation · DraftKings
Wyoming +4
- Best book
- DraftKings · +4
- Consensus line
- +3.75
- All-Takes line
- −1.09
Evidence floor: 2.00 points. A 2.00-point evidence floor applies because at least one team changed head coaches. The coaching signal can cause an abstention; it never flips the model's side. The new pace adjustment is shown in the forecast but does not create a bet.
Core football model+3.1Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check+1.2An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production0.0Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions+0.6Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price+0.3DraftKings has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets18–12
60.0% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2022Arizona +6.25 at San Diego State
+4.1Covered by 24.3 2019SMU +1.75 at Arkansas State
+4.0Covered by 8.8 2018Army +13.88 at Duke
+4.6Missed by 6.1 2025Stanford +1.5 at Hawai'i
+4.0Missed by 1.5 2023Northern Illinois +8.5 at Boston College
+3.0Covered by 11.5 2025UTEP +3.5 at Utah State
+3.5Missed by 8.5 2025Northwestern +6.5 at Tulane
+1.7Missed by 13.5 2022Temple +9.5 at Duke
+2.4Missed by 20.5 2022Army +1.5 at Coastal Carolina
+3.2Missed by 8.5 2023Jacksonville State +1.17 vs. UTEP
+5.9Covered by 4.2 2025Toledo +10 at Kentucky
+1.5Covered by 2.0 2024West Virginia +10 vs. Penn State
+2.9Missed by 12.0 2021East Carolina +9.20 at App State
+2.2Missed by 4.8 2018Northwestern +1 at Purdue
+2.6Covered by 5.0 2024North Carolina +2.5 at Minnesota
+1.3Covered by 4.5 2025Jacksonville State +16.5 at UCF
+3.0Covered by 9.5 2022Nevada +2 vs. Texas State
+6.9Covered by 26.0 2022North Carolina +3 at App State
+3.1Covered by 5.0 2022East Carolina +12.5 vs. NC State
+2.8Covered by 11.5 2021Army +2.5 at Georgia State
+4.0Covered by 35.5 2023North Texas +6.5 vs. California
+2.1Missed by 30.5 2020South Alabama +12.40 at Southern Miss
+3.0Covered by 23.4 2022Boise State +1.62 at Oregon State
+1.1Missed by 15.4 2017Wyoming +12.17 at Iowa
+1.6Missed by 8.8 2019Fresno State +14.12 at USC
+2.9Covered by 6.1 2025LSU +3.5 at Clemson
+2.3Covered by 10.5 2017Arkansas State +14.5 at Nebraska
+2.5Covered by 7.5 2025California +3 at Oregon State
+2.5Covered by 22.0 2018Troy +9.12 vs. Boise State
+1.3Missed by 26.9 2024Coastal Carolina +3.5 at Jacksonville State
+1.5Covered by 31.5 Recommendation · Bovada
Michigan State −10.5
- Best book
- Bovada · −10.5
- Consensus line
- −10.5
- All-Takes line
- −14.89
Evidence floor: 2.00 points. A 2.00-point evidence floor applies because at least one team changed head coaches. The coaching signal can cause an abstention; it never flips the model's side. The new pace adjustment is shown in the forecast but does not create a bet.
Core football model+3.5Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check+0.9An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production0.0Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions0.0Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price0.0Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets20–10
66.7% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2018Iowa −9.25 vs. Northern Illinois
+1.8Covered by 16.8 2025Alabama −13.5 at Florida State
+3.0Missed by 27.5 2022Florida Atlantic −6 at Ohio
+2.8Missed by 9.0 2025Rutgers −11.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 8.5 2025Notre Dame −2.5 at Miami
+4.8Missed by 5.5 2022Illinois −14 vs. Wyoming
+2.9Covered by 18.0 2024James Madison −7.5 at Charlotte
+2.6Covered by 15.5 2018Wyoming −5 at New Mexico State
+3.2Covered by 17.0 2019Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6 2025Purdue −16.5 vs. Ball State
+4.5Covered by 14.5 2021Rutgers −14.20 vs. Temple
+1.5Covered by 32.8 2021Arkansas −19.60 vs. Rice
+2.8Covered by 1.4 2022Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3 2019Stanford −6.5 vs. Northwestern
+1.1Covered by 3.5 2022Utah −2.5 at Florida
+3.9Missed by 5.5 2019Utah −6.12 at BYU
+3.8Covered by 11.9 2025TCU −3 at North Carolina
+3.2Covered by 31.0 2022Arkansas −6.62 vs. Cincinnati
+1.5Covered by 0.4 2022Vanderbilt −9.25 at Hawai'i
+2.0Covered by 43.8 2017Colorado State −3.5 vs. Oregon State
+3.9Covered by 27.5 2025Wyoming −8.5 at Akron
+1.6Covered by 1.5 2025Ohio State −3 vs. Texas
+1.4Covered by 4.0 2022Kentucky −15.5 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.4Covered by 8.5 2021Duke −6.40 at Charlotte
+2.9Missed by 9.4 2021Notre Dame −7.30 at Florida State
+2.9Missed by 4.3 2024Virginia Tech −13.5 at Vanderbilt
+1.7Missed by 20.5 2021Cincinnati −22.30 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.2Covered by 12.7 2024Michigan State −11.5 vs. Florida Atlantic
+2.6Missed by 5.5 2021West Virginia −2.5 at Maryland
+4.3Missed by 8.5 2025Utah −6.5 at UCLA
+1.3Covered by 26.5 Recommendation · Bovada
North Texas +41
- Best book
- Bovada · +41
- Consensus line
- +40.75
- All-Takes line
- +36.72
Evidence floor: 2.00 points. A 2.00-point evidence floor applies because at least one team changed head coaches. The coaching signal can cause an abstention; it never flips the model's side. The new pace adjustment is shown in the forecast but does not create a bet.
Core football model+3.3Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check+0.8An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production0.0Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions0.0Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price+0.3Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets21–9
70.0% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2024Akron +50.5 at Ohio State
+2.8Covered by 4.5 2017Georgia Southern +34.33 at Auburn
+1.8Covered by 0.3 2024Colorado State +35.5 at Texas
+1.4Missed by 16.5 2021New Mexico State +31.20 at San Diego State
+2.2Covered by 13.2 2023San José State +30.5 at USC
+3.3Covered by 2.5 2019New Mexico State +32.88 at Washington State
+1.5Missed by 18.1 2018Coastal Carolina +30.75 at South Carolina
+2.4Missed by 3.3 2019South Alabama +35.5 at Nebraska
+1.1Covered by 21.5 2024Nevada +27 vs. SMU
+3.0Covered by 22.0 2019Florida Atlantic +27.62 at Ohio State
+3.5Covered by 3.6 2017Rutgers +28 vs. Washington
+4.4Covered by 12.0 2024Western Michigan +24 at Wisconsin
+2.8Covered by 10.0 2018Rice +25.88 vs. Houston
+2.3Covered by 7.9 2019Kent State +24.5 at Arizona State
+2.8Covered by 1.5 2022UConn +23.75 at Utah State
+2.9Covered by 12.8 2017Akron +29.83 at Penn State
+2.6Missed by 22.2 2019Georgia Southern +27.12 at LSU
+2.1Missed by 24.9 2022Bowling Green +24 at UCLA
+2.3Missed by 4.0 2017Rice +31.17 vs. Stanford
+5.0Missed by 23.8 2024Kennesaw State +24 at UTSA
+2.2Covered by 12.0 2019Miami (OH) +24.25 at Iowa
+1.2Covered by 0.3 2023Colorado +20.5 at TCU
+3.9Covered by 23.5 2023Utah State +23.5 at Iowa
+4.4Covered by 13.5 2022Colorado State +31 at Michigan
+4.9Missed by 13.0 2018Utah State +23.5 at Michigan State
+2.6Covered by 16.5 2025Old Dominion +23.5 at Indiana
+0.5Covered by 10.5 2018Massachusetts +20.38 at Boston College
+2.5Missed by 13.6 2018UNLV +24.62 at USC
+1.7Covered by 2.6 2024Old Dominion +20 at South Carolina
+2.5Covered by 16.0 2021Florida Atlantic +23.5 at Florida
+0.2Covered by 2.5 Recommendation · Bovada
Texas −30.5
- Best book
- Bovada · −30.5
- Consensus line
- −30.5
- All-Takes line
- −34.33
Evidence gate: intentional model departure. Neither team changed head coaches, so an intentional pre-pace production-model departure is sufficient. The pace adjustment changes the forecast, not whether a bet exists.
Core football model+3.6Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check0.0An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production+0.3Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions0.0Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price0.0Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets22–8
73.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2024Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0 2021Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3 2017Memphis −27.17 vs. UL Monroe
+2.0Missed by 19.2 2023Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0 2025Ole Miss −38.5 vs. Georgia State
+3.1Covered by 17.5 2021Texas A&M −29.5 vs. Kent State
+3.9Covered by 1.5 2022Maryland −24 vs. Buffalo
+3.6Missed by 3.0 2022Minnesota −36 vs. New Mexico State
+5.1Covered by 2.0 2017Clemson −38.17 vs. Kent State
+3.8Covered by 14.8 2021Oklahoma −31.25 vs. Tulane
+2.0Missed by 26.3 2018Ohio State −40 vs. Oregon State
+3.3Covered by 6.0 2021Wake Forest −32.5 vs. Old Dominion
+1.0Missed by 0.5 2019Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6 2022Washington −23.62 vs. Kent State
+2.3Covered by 1.4 2019Michigan −35.62 vs. Middle Tennessee
+2.4Missed by 16.6 2017Oklahoma −43.17 vs. UTEP
+3.4Covered by 5.8 2022Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3 2019Texas A&M −33.25 vs. Texas State
+7.0Covered by 0.8 2017Wisconsin −27.33 vs. Utah State
+0.9Covered by 21.7 2022Tennessee −36.25 vs. Ball State
+6.2Covered by 12.8 2022Missouri −20.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.8Covered by 7.6 2022Alabama −42.12 vs. Utah State
+1.8Covered by 12.9 2024Pittsburgh −23.5 vs. Kent State
+1.2Covered by 7.5 2018Penn State −24.5 vs. App State
+1.3Missed by 17.5 2024Kentucky −25.5 vs. Southern Miss
+0.9Covered by 5.5 2018Alabama −23.75 vs. Louisville
+4.8Covered by 13.3 2019Alabama −33.75 vs. Duke
+5.6Covered by 5.3 2021Cincinnati −22.30 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.2Covered by 12.7 2019Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0 2022Ohio State −17 vs. Notre Dame
+1.5Missed by 6.0 Recommendation · Bovada
Colorado +7
- Best book
- Bovada · +7
- Consensus line
- +7
- All-Takes line
- +2.86
Evidence gate: intentional model departure. Neither team changed head coaches, so an intentional pre-pace production-model departure is sufficient. The pace adjustment changes the forecast, not whether a bet exists.
Core football model+3.7Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check0.0An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production0.0Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions+0.4Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price0.0Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets14–16
46.7% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2023Northern Illinois +8.5 at Boston College
+3.0Covered by 11.5 2022Arizona +6.25 at San Diego State
+4.1Covered by 24.3 2022Temple +9.5 at Duke
+2.4Missed by 20.5 2025UTEP +3.5 at Utah State
+3.5Missed by 8.5 2019SMU +1.75 at Arkansas State
+4.0Covered by 8.8 2018Army +13.88 at Duke
+4.6Missed by 6.1 2024West Virginia +10 vs. Penn State
+2.9Missed by 12.0 2017California +12.5 at North Carolina
+2.7Covered by 17.5 2017Arkansas State +14.5 at Nebraska
+2.5Covered by 7.5 2017Wyoming +12.17 at Iowa
+1.6Missed by 8.8 2022East Carolina +12.5 vs. NC State
+2.8Covered by 11.5 2024North Carolina +2.5 at Minnesota
+1.3Covered by 4.5 2018Northwestern +1 at Purdue
+2.6Covered by 5.0 2017Troy +10.5 at Boise State
+1.9Missed by 0.5 2022Army +1.5 at Coastal Carolina
+3.2Missed by 8.5 2023North Texas +6.5 vs. California
+2.1Missed by 30.5 2019Massachusetts +16.67 at Rutgers
+2.3Missed by 10.3 2025Northwestern +6.5 at Tulane
+1.7Missed by 13.5 2019Florida International +3 at Tulane
+1.4Missed by 25.0 2022Georgia State +12.5 at South Carolina
+1.6Missed by 8.5 2018San Diego State +13.75 at Stanford
+2.6Missed by 7.3 2025LSU +3.5 at Clemson
+2.3Covered by 10.5 2022Boise State +1.62 at Oregon State
+1.1Missed by 15.4 2022Memphis +17 at Mississippi State
+2.8Missed by 9.0 2025Toledo +10 at Kentucky
+1.5Covered by 2.0 2024Coastal Carolina +3.5 at Jacksonville State
+1.5Covered by 31.5 2021Central Michigan +13.80 at Missouri
+1.7Covered by 3.8 2025Jacksonville State +16.5 at UCF
+3.0Covered by 9.5 2017Charlotte +14 at Eastern Michigan
+1.4Missed by 3.0 2025Western Michigan +18.5 at Michigan State
+2.9Covered by 1.5 Recommendation · Bovada
Michigan −26.5
- Best book
- Bovada · −26.5
- Consensus line
- −26.5
- All-Takes line
- −30.21
Evidence floor: 2.00 points. A 2.00-point evidence floor applies because at least one team changed head coaches. The coaching signal can cause an abstention; it never flips the model's side. The new pace adjustment is shown in the forecast but does not create a bet.
Core football model+3.1Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check0.0An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production+0.6Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions0.0Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price0.0Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets18–12
60.0% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2019Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0 2023Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0 2021Cincinnati −22.30 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.2Covered by 12.7 2019Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6 2024Kentucky −25.5 vs. Southern Miss
+0.9Covered by 5.5 2024Maryland −20.5 vs. UConn
+1.4Covered by 22.5 2017Wisconsin −27.33 vs. Utah State
+0.9Covered by 21.7 2024Syracuse −17.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 1.5 2022Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3 2024Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0 2024Pittsburgh −23.5 vs. Kent State
+1.2Covered by 7.5 2025Purdue −16.5 vs. Ball State
+4.5Covered by 14.5 2017Clemson −38.17 vs. Kent State
+3.8Covered by 14.8 2022Minnesota −36 vs. New Mexico State
+5.1Covered by 2.0 2025Washington −20.5 vs. Colorado State
+0.9Missed by 3.5 2018Penn State −24.5 vs. App State
+1.3Missed by 17.5 2022Illinois −14 vs. Wyoming
+2.9Covered by 18.0 2019Michigan State −23.12 vs. Tulsa
+1.4Missed by 2.1 2025Minnesota −16.5 vs. Buffalo
+2.4Missed by 3.5 2021Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3 2025Wisconsin −17.5 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.0Missed by 0.5 2021Arkansas −19.60 vs. Rice
+2.8Covered by 1.4 2017Memphis −27.17 vs. UL Monroe
+2.0Missed by 19.2 2021Mississippi State −20.90 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.9Missed by 19.9 2025Kansas −14 vs. Fresno State
+2.3Covered by 10.0 2021NC State −19.70 vs. South Florida
+2.7Covered by 25.3 2019Michigan −35.62 vs. Middle Tennessee
+2.4Missed by 16.6 2025Alabama −13.5 at Florida State
+3.0Missed by 27.5 2022Ohio State −17 vs. Notre Dame
+1.5Missed by 6.0 2022Washington −23.62 vs. Kent State
+2.3Covered by 1.4 Recommendation · DraftKings
Nebraska −23.5
- Best book
- DraftKings · −23.5
- Consensus line
- −23.75
- All-Takes line
- −26.97
Evidence gate: intentional model departure. Neither team changed head coaches, so an intentional pre-pace production-model departure is sufficient. The pace adjustment changes the forecast, not whether a bet exists.
Core football model+3.2Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check0.0An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production0.0Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions0.0Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price+0.3DraftKings has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets19–11
63.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2019Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0 2024Maryland −20.5 vs. UConn
+1.4Covered by 22.5 2019Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6 2021Cincinnati −22.30 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.2Covered by 12.7 2024Kentucky −25.5 vs. Southern Miss
+0.9Covered by 5.5 2022Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3 2017Wisconsin −27.33 vs. Utah State
+0.9Covered by 21.7 2018Penn State −24.5 vs. App State
+1.3Missed by 17.5 2025Washington −20.5 vs. Colorado State
+0.9Missed by 3.5 2023Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0 2022Illinois −14 vs. Wyoming
+2.9Covered by 18.0 2019Michigan State −23.12 vs. Tulsa
+1.4Missed by 2.1 2024Pittsburgh −23.5 vs. Kent State
+1.2Covered by 7.5 2024Syracuse −17.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 1.5 2021Arkansas −19.60 vs. Rice
+2.8Covered by 1.4 2024Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0 2025Alabama −13.5 at Florida State
+3.0Missed by 27.5 2022Ohio State −17 vs. Notre Dame
+1.5Missed by 6.0 2025Purdue −16.5 vs. Ball State
+4.5Covered by 14.5 2025Minnesota −16.5 vs. Buffalo
+2.4Missed by 3.5 2022Minnesota −36 vs. New Mexico State
+5.1Covered by 2.0 2017Memphis −27.17 vs. UL Monroe
+2.0Missed by 19.2 2023Notre Dame −20 vs. Navy
+3.3Covered by 19.0 2017Clemson −38.17 vs. Kent State
+3.8Covered by 14.8 2025Wisconsin −17.5 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.0Missed by 0.5 2022Washington −23.62 vs. Kent State
+2.3Covered by 1.4 2025Kansas −14 vs. Fresno State
+2.3Covered by 10.0 2021Rutgers −14.20 vs. Temple
+1.5Covered by 32.8 2018Iowa −9.25 vs. Northern Illinois
+1.8Covered by 16.8 2024Virginia Tech −13.5 at Vanderbilt
+1.7Missed by 20.5 Recommendation · Bovada
Florida International +12.5
- Best book
- Bovada · +12.5
- Consensus line
- +12.5
- All-Takes line
- +9.38
Evidence floor: 2.00 points. A 2.00-point evidence floor applies because at least one team changed head coaches. The coaching signal can cause an abstention; it never flips the model's side. The new pace adjustment is shown in the forecast but does not create a bet.
Core football model+3.0Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check+0.0An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production0.0Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions+0.1Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price0.0Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets13–16–1
44.8% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2019Massachusetts +16.67 at Rutgers
+2.3Missed by 10.3 2022Temple +9.5 at Duke
+2.4Missed by 20.5 2017California +12.5 at North Carolina
+2.7Covered by 17.5 2023Northern Illinois +8.5 at Boston College
+3.0Covered by 11.5 2022Memphis +17 at Mississippi State
+2.8Missed by 9.0 2017Arkansas State +14.5 at Nebraska
+2.5Covered by 7.5 2017Troy +10.5 at Boise State
+1.9Missed by 0.5 2017Wyoming +12.17 at Iowa
+1.6Missed by 8.8 2021Central Michigan +13.80 at Missouri
+1.7Covered by 3.8 2017Charlotte +14 at Eastern Michigan
+1.4Missed by 3.0 2022Georgia State +12.5 at South Carolina
+1.6Missed by 8.5 2018Kent State +18.12 at Illinois
+3.7Covered by 11.1 2024Old Dominion +20 at South Carolina
+2.5Covered by 16.0 2022East Carolina +12.5 vs. NC State
+2.8Covered by 11.5 2025Western Michigan +18.5 at Michigan State
+2.9Covered by 1.5 2025Jacksonville State +16.5 at UCF
+3.0Covered by 9.5 2025UTEP +3.5 at Utah State
+3.5Missed by 8.5 2021San José State +14 at USC
+0.9Missed by 9.0 2024West Virginia +10 vs. Penn State
+2.9Missed by 12.0 2022Arizona +6.25 at San Diego State
+4.1Covered by 24.3 2023Colorado +20.5 at TCU
+3.9Covered by 23.5 2019Louisville +19.25 vs. Notre Dame
+3.1Covered by 1.3 2018San Diego State +13.75 at Stanford
+2.6Missed by 7.3 2025Coastal Carolina +12.5 at Virginia
+0.3Missed by 28.5 2018Army +13.88 at Duke
+4.6Missed by 6.1 2023North Texas +6.5 vs. California
+2.1Missed by 30.5 2018North Carolina +7 at California
+0.7Push 2018Central Michigan +17.5 at Kentucky
+1.3Covered by 2.5 2018Massachusetts +20.38 at Boston College
+2.5Missed by 13.6 2021Hawai'i +17.60 at UCLA
+3.1Missed by 16.4 Recommendation · Bovada
Illinois −27.5
- Best book
- Bovada · −27.5
- Consensus line
- −27.5
- All-Takes line
- −30.15
Evidence gate: intentional model departure. Neither team changed head coaches, so an intentional pre-pace production-model departure is sufficient. The pace adjustment changes the forecast, not whether a bet exists.
Core football model+2.6Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
2026 roster check0.0An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Year-over-year production0.0Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Expected possessions0.0Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
Best-book price0.0Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
Verified injuriesPendingNo current-game injury adjustment is applied until verified pregame availability is supplied.
30 closest historical Week 1 bets19–11
63.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Inspect all 30 historical matches +
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
YearHistorical recommendationEdgeResult
2017Memphis −27.17 vs. UL Monroe
+2.0Missed by 19.2 2024Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0 2017Wisconsin −27.33 vs. Utah State
+0.9Covered by 21.7 2019Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6 2021Wake Forest −32.5 vs. Old Dominion
+1.0Missed by 0.5 2024Kentucky −25.5 vs. Southern Miss
+0.9Covered by 5.5 2023Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0 2022Washington −23.62 vs. Kent State
+2.3Covered by 1.4 2018Penn State −24.5 vs. App State
+1.3Missed by 17.5 2024Pittsburgh −23.5 vs. Kent State
+1.2Covered by 7.5 2021Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3 2022Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3 2022Maryland −24 vs. Buffalo
+3.6Missed by 3.0 2019Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0 2021Cincinnati −22.30 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.2Covered by 12.7 2021Oklahoma −31.25 vs. Tulane
+2.0Missed by 26.3 2021Texas A&M −29.5 vs. Kent State
+3.9Covered by 1.5 2022Ohio State −17 vs. Notre Dame
+1.5Missed by 6.0 2025Ole Miss −38.5 vs. Georgia State
+3.1Covered by 17.5 2022Missouri −20.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.8Covered by 7.6 2025Washington −20.5 vs. Colorado State
+0.9Missed by 3.5 2019Michigan −35.62 vs. Middle Tennessee
+2.4Missed by 16.6 2017Clemson −38.17 vs. Kent State
+3.8Covered by 14.8 2024Maryland −20.5 vs. UConn
+1.4Covered by 22.5 2022Minnesota −36 vs. New Mexico State
+5.1Covered by 2.0 2019Michigan State −23.12 vs. Tulsa
+1.4Missed by 2.1 2018Ohio State −40 vs. Oregon State
+3.3Covered by 6.0 2021Pittsburgh −37.60 vs. Massachusetts
+0.2Covered by 6.4 2017Arizona State −24.67 vs. New Mexico State
+0.2Missed by 18.7 2021NC State −19.70 vs. South Florida
+2.7Covered by 25.3