2014–2026 performance history

Air Force over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

Mountain WestHead coach: Troy CalhounView Air Force games →
Offense · 2026 estimate64.7/100

45.9 average through 1 game

66.9 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate19.5/100

62.7 average through 1 game

15.7 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

Air Force individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.Calhoun · ’14–’26Troy Calhoun, 2014–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Air Force vs. Nicholls · W 44–16; offense 31.5 percentile2014 Week 2: Air Force at Wyoming · L 13–17; offense 9.9 percentile2014 Week 3: Air Force at Georgia State · W 48–38; offense 62.8 percentile2014 Week 5: Air Force vs. Boise State · W 28–14; offense 42.8 percentile2014 Week 6: Air Force vs. Navy · W 30–21; offense 50.9 percentile2014 Week 7: Air Force at Utah State · L 16–34; offense 37.5 percentile2014 Week 8: Air Force vs. New Mexico · W 35–31; offense 31.8 percentile2014 Week 10: Air Force at Army · W 23–6; offense 30.4 percentile2014 Week 11: Air Force at UNLV · W 48–21; offense 76.4 percentile2014 Week 12: Air Force vs. Nevada · W 45–38; offense 76.0 percentile2014 Week 13: Air Force at San Diego State · L 14–30; offense 42.9 percentile2014 Week 14: Air Force vs. Colorado State · W 27–24; offense 44.5 percentile2014 Week 1: Air Force vs. Western Michigan · W 38–24; offense 59.4 percentile2015 Week 1: Air Force vs. Morgan State · W 63–7; offense 85.3 percentile2015 Week 2: Air Force vs. San José State · W 37–16; offense 49.8 percentile2015 Week 3: Air Force at Michigan State · L 21–35; offense 79.3 percentile2015 Week 5: Air Force at Navy · L 11–33; offense 13.0 percentile2015 Week 6: Air Force vs. Wyoming · W 31–17; offense 23.3 percentile2015 Week 7: Air Force at Colorado State · L 23–38; offense 59.2 percentile2015 Week 8: Air Force vs. Fresno State · W 42–14; offense 69.5 percentile2015 Week 9: Air Force at Hawai'i · W 58–7; offense 88.7 percentile2015 Week 10: Air Force vs. Army · W 20–3; offense 37.8 percentile2015 Week 11: Air Force vs. Utah State · W 35–28; offense 91.5 percentile2015 Week 12: Air Force at Boise State · W 37–30; offense 96.3 percentile2015 Week 13: Air Force at New Mexico · L 35–47; offense 67.4 percentile2015 Week 14: Air Force at San Diego State · L 24–27; offense 76.9 percentile2015 Week 1: Air Force vs. California · L 36–55; offense 64.0 percentile2016 Week 1: Air Force vs. Abilene Christian · W 37–21; offense 48.6 percentile2016 Week 2: Air Force vs. Georgia State · W 48–14; offense 95.2 percentile2016 Week 4: Air Force at Utah State · W 27–20; offense 38.9 percentile2016 Week 5: Air Force vs. Navy · W 28–14; offense 38.8 percentile2016 Week 6: Air Force at Wyoming · L 26–35; offense 16.6 percentile2016 Week 7: Air Force vs. New Mexico · L 40–45; offense 66.5 percentile2016 Week 8: Air Force vs. Hawai'i · L 27–34; offense 24.9 percentile2016 Week 9: Air Force at Fresno State · W 31–21; offense 43.0 percentile2016 Week 10: Air Force at Army · W 31–12; offense 94.6 percentile2016 Week 12: Air Force at San José State · W 41–38; offense 96.5 percentile2016 Week 13: Air Force vs. Boise State · W 27–20; offense 57.5 percentile2016 Week 1: Air Force vs. South Alabama · W 45–21; offense 74.0 percentile2017 Week 1: Air Force vs. VMI · W 62–0; offense 90.3 percentile2017 Week 3: Air Force at Michigan · L 13–29; offense 39.9 percentile2017 Week 4: Air Force vs. San Diego State · L 24–28; offense 22.9 percentile2017 Week 5: Air Force at New Mexico · L 38–56; offense 61.8 percentile2017 Week 6: Air Force at Navy · L 45–48; offense 98.0 percentile2017 Week 7: Air Force vs. UNLV · W 34–30; offense 36.1 percentile2017 Week 8: Air Force at Nevada · W 45–42; offense 87.6 percentile2017 Week 9: Air Force at Colorado State · W 45–28; offense 94.2 percentile2017 Week 10: Air Force vs. Army · L 0–21; offense 0.9 percentile2017 Week 11: Air Force vs. Wyoming · L 14–28; offense 39.7 percentile2017 Week 12: Air Force at Boise State · L 19–44; offense 60.8 percentile2017 Week 13: Air Force vs. Utah State · W 38–35; offense 67.2 percentile2018 Week 1: Air Force vs. Stony Brook · W 38–0; offense 13.2 percentile2018 Week 4: Air Force at Utah State · L 32–42; offense 57.0 percentile2018 Week 5: Air Force vs. Nevada · L 25–28; offense 16.5 percentile2018 Week 6: Air Force vs. Navy · W 35–7; offense 33.8 percentile2018 Week 7: Air Force at San Diego State · L 17–21; offense 28.4 percentile2018 Week 8: Air Force at UNLV · W 41–35; offense 95.7 percentile2018 Week 9: Air Force vs. Boise State · L 38–48; offense 95.3 percentile2018 Week 10: Air Force at Army · L 14–17; offense 44.5 percentile2018 Week 11: Air Force vs. New Mexico · W 42–24; offense 89.5 percentile2018 Week 12: Air Force at Wyoming · L 27–35; offense 94.1 percentile2018 Week 13: Air Force vs. Colorado State · W 27–19; offense 60.3 percentile2019 Week 1: Air Force vs. Colgate · W 48–7; offense 82.6 percentile2019 Week 3: Air Force at Colorado · W 30–23; offense 71.8 percentile2019 Week 4: Air Force at Boise State · L 19–30; offense 69.3 percentile2019 Week 5: Air Force vs. San José State · W 41–24; offense 90.1 percentile2019 Week 6: Air Force at Navy · L 25–34; offense 37.5 percentile2019 Week 7: Air Force vs. Fresno State · W 43–24; offense 89.7 percentile2019 Week 8: Air Force at Hawai'i · W 56–26; offense 95.4 percentile2019 Week 9: Air Force vs. Utah State · W 31–7; offense 84.3 percentile2019 Week 10: Air Force vs. Army · W 17–13; offense 57.0 percentile2019 Week 12: Air Force at Colorado State · W 38–21; offense 71.6 percentile2019 Week 13: Air Force at New Mexico · W 44–22; offense 99.4 percentile2019 Week 14: Air Force vs. Wyoming · W 20–6; offense 63.6 percentile2019 Week 1: Air Force vs. Washington State · W 31–21; offense 72.6 percentile2020 Week 5: Air Force vs. Navy · W 40–7; offense 69.2 percentile2020 Week 8: Air Force at San José State · L 6–17; offense 39.1 percentile2020 Week 9: Air Force vs. Boise State · L 30–49; offense 92.1 percentile2020 Week 12: Air Force vs. New Mexico · W 28–0; offense 71.1 percentile2020 Week 14: Air Force at Utah State · W 35–7; offense 95.9 percentile2020 Week 16: Air Force at Army · L 7–10; offense 75.3 percentile2021 Week 2: Air Force at Navy · W 23–3; offense 6.9 percentile2021 Week 3: Air Force vs. Utah State · L 45–49; offense 98.5 percentile2021 Week 4: Air Force vs. Florida Atlantic · W 31–7; offense 83.1 percentile2021 Week 5: Air Force at New Mexico · W 38–10; offense 95.6 percentile2021 Week 6: Air Force vs. Wyoming · W 24–14; offense 38.7 percentile2021 Week 7: Air Force at Boise State · W 24–17; offense 86.6 percentile2021 Week 8: Air Force vs. San Diego State · L 14–20; offense 51.1 percentile2021 Week 11: Air Force at Colorado State · W 35–21; offense 97.1 percentile2021 Week 12: Air Force at Nevada · W 41–39; offense 73.8 percentile2021 Week 13: Air Force vs. UNLV · W 48–14; offense 97.2 percentile2021 Week 1: Air Force vs. Louisville · W 31–28; offense 82.5 percentile2022 Week 1: Air Force vs. Northern Iowa · W 48–17; offense 93.6 percentile2022 Week 3: Air Force at Wyoming · L 14–17; offense 33.6 percentile2022 Week 4: Air Force vs. Nevada · W 48–20; offense 98.5 percentile2022 Week 5: Air Force vs. Navy · W 13–10; offense 40.0 percentile2022 Week 6: Air Force at Utah State · L 27–34; offense 73.1 percentile2022 Week 7: Air Force at UNLV · W 42–7; offense 89.8 percentile2022 Week 8: Air Force vs. Boise State · L 14–19; offense 57.2 percentile2022 Week 10: Air Force vs. Army · W 13–7; offense 42.7 percentile2022 Week 11: Air Force vs. New Mexico · W 35–3; offense 96.0 percentile2022 Week 12: Air Force vs. Colorado State · W 24–12; offense 91.5 percentile2022 Week 13: Air Force at San Diego State · W 13–3; offense 43.6 percentile2022 Week 1: Air Force vs. Baylor · W 30–15; offense 60.5 percentile2023 Week 1: Air Force vs. Robert Morris · W 42–7; offense 90.3 percentile2023 Week 2: Air Force vs. Sam Houston · W 13–3; offense 29.1 percentile2023 Week 3: Air Force vs. Utah State · W 39–21; offense 94.1 percentile2023 Week 4: Air Force at San José State · W 45–20; offense 92.5 percentile2023 Week 5: Air Force vs. San Diego State · W 49–10; offense 98.5 percentile2023 Week 7: Air Force vs. Wyoming · W 34–27; offense 97.1 percentile2023 Week 8: Air Force at Navy · W 17–6; offense 16.1 percentile2023 Week 9: Air Force at Colorado State · W 30–13; offense 65.3 percentile2023 Week 10: Air Force vs. Army · L 3–23; offense 14.2 percentile2023 Week 11: Air Force at Hawai'i · L 13–27; offense 34.3 percentile2023 Week 12: Air Force vs. UNLV · L 27–31; offense 41.0 percentile2023 Week 13: Air Force at Boise State · L 19–27; offense 35.0 percentile2023 Week 1: Air Force vs. James Madison · W 31–21; offense 93.1 percentile2024 Week 1: Air Force vs. Merrimack · W 21–6; offense 1.7 percentile2024 Week 2: Air Force vs. San José State · L 7–17; offense 2.3 percentile2024 Week 3: Air Force at Baylor · L 3–31; offense 5.4 percentile2024 Week 5: Air Force at Wyoming · L 19–31; offense 39.7 percentile2024 Week 6: Air Force vs. Navy · L 7–34; offense 7.4 percentile2024 Week 7: Air Force at New Mexico · L 37–52; offense 49.1 percentile2024 Week 8: Air Force vs. Colorado State · L 13–21; offense 12.9 percentile2024 Week 10: Air Force at Army · L 3–20; offense 21.1 percentile2024 Week 11: Air Force vs. Fresno State · W 36–28; offense 75.5 percentile2024 Week 12: Air Force vs. Oregon State · W 28–0; offense 39.9 percentile2024 Week 13: Air Force at Nevada · W 22–19; offense 41.9 percentile2024 Week 14: Air Force at San Diego State · W 31–20; offense 96.8 percentile2025 Week 1: Air Force vs. Bucknell · W 49–13; offense 82.2 percentile2025 Week 4: Air Force vs. Boise State · L 37–49; offense 83.1 percentile2025 Week 5: Air Force vs. Hawai'i · L 35–44; offense 89.1 percentile2025 Week 6: Air Force at Navy · L 31–34; offense 72.9 percentile2025 Week 7: Air Force at UNLV · L 48–51; offense 91.0 percentile2025 Week 10: Air Force vs. Army · L 17–20; offense 41.5 percentile2025 Week 11: Air Force at San José State · W 26–16; offense 41.3 percentile2025 Week 12: Air Force at UConn · L 16–26; offense 46.4 percentile2025 Week 13: Air Force vs. New Mexico · L 3–20; offense 10.9 percentile2025 Week 14: Air Force at Colorado State · W 42–21; offense 85.5 percentile2026 Week 1: Air Force vs. Duquesne · W 34–0; offense 45.9 percentile2014 offense season mean: 45.2 percentile2015 offense season mean: 67.5 percentile2016 offense season mean: 62.8 percentile2017 offense season mean: 60.2 percentile2018 offense season mean: 62.2 percentile2019 offense season mean: 80.5 percentile2020 offense season mean: 77.9 percentile2021 offense season mean: 80.8 percentile2022 offense season mean: 75.1 percentile2023 offense season mean: 69.5 percentile2024 offense season mean: 27.1 percentile2025 offense season mean: 66.9 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 64.7 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 45.9 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Air Force vs. Nicholls · W 44–16; defense 43.0 percentile2014 Week 2: Air Force at Wyoming · L 13–17; defense 83.7 percentile2014 Week 3: Air Force at Georgia State · W 48–38; defense 7.5 percentile2014 Week 5: Air Force vs. Boise State · W 28–14; defense 92.7 percentile2014 Week 6: Air Force vs. Navy · W 30–21; defense 79.8 percentile2014 Week 7: Air Force at Utah State · L 16–34; defense 36.9 percentile2014 Week 8: Air Force vs. New Mexico · W 35–31; defense 50.1 percentile2014 Week 10: Air Force at Army · W 23–6; defense 98.9 percentile2014 Week 11: Air Force at UNLV · W 48–21; defense 69.0 percentile2014 Week 12: Air Force vs. Nevada · W 45–38; defense 17.3 percentile2014 Week 13: Air Force at San Diego State · L 14–30; defense 52.9 percentile2014 Week 14: Air Force vs. Colorado State · W 27–24; defense 72.3 percentile2014 Week 1: Air Force vs. Western Michigan · W 38–24; defense 85.7 percentile2015 Week 1: Air Force vs. Morgan State · W 63–7; defense 58.0 percentile2015 Week 2: Air Force vs. San José State · W 37–16; defense 53.3 percentile2015 Week 3: Air Force at Michigan State · L 21–35; defense 54.6 percentile2015 Week 5: Air Force at Navy · L 11–33; defense 75.5 percentile2015 Week 6: Air Force vs. Wyoming · W 31–17; defense 81.9 percentile2015 Week 7: Air Force at Colorado State · L 23–38; defense 20.4 percentile2015 Week 8: Air Force vs. Fresno State · W 42–14; defense 70.8 percentile2015 Week 9: Air Force at Hawai'i · W 58–7; defense 96.5 percentile2015 Week 10: Air Force vs. Army · W 20–3; defense 94.7 percentile2015 Week 11: Air Force vs. Utah State · W 35–28; defense 39.7 percentile2015 Week 12: Air Force at Boise State · W 37–30; defense 80.0 percentile2015 Week 13: Air Force at New Mexico · L 35–47; defense 29.3 percentile2015 Week 14: Air Force at San Diego State · L 24–27; defense 45.1 percentile2015 Week 1: Air Force vs. California · L 36–55; defense 23.9 percentile2016 Week 1: Air Force vs. Abilene Christian · W 37–21; defense 31.4 percentile2016 Week 2: Air Force vs. Georgia State · W 48–14; defense 67.1 percentile2016 Week 4: Air Force at Utah State · W 27–20; defense 79.5 percentile2016 Week 5: Air Force vs. Navy · W 28–14; defense 97.7 percentile2016 Week 6: Air Force at Wyoming · L 26–35; defense 70.1 percentile2016 Week 7: Air Force vs. New Mexico · L 40–45; defense 31.1 percentile2016 Week 8: Air Force vs. Hawai'i · L 27–34; defense 75.5 percentile2016 Week 9: Air Force at Fresno State · W 31–21; defense 45.4 percentile2016 Week 10: Air Force at Army · W 31–12; defense 94.8 percentile2016 Week 12: Air Force at San José State · W 41–38; defense 16.1 percentile2016 Week 13: Air Force vs. Boise State · W 27–20; defense 85.9 percentile2016 Week 1: Air Force vs. South Alabama · W 45–21; defense 34.1 percentile2017 Week 1: Air Force vs. VMI · W 62–0; defense 74.2 percentile2017 Week 3: Air Force at Michigan · L 13–29; defense 50.8 percentile2017 Week 4: Air Force vs. San Diego State · L 24–28; defense 64.4 percentile2017 Week 5: Air Force at New Mexico · L 38–56; defense 1.6 percentile2017 Week 6: Air Force at Navy · L 45–48; defense 10.9 percentile2017 Week 7: Air Force vs. UNLV · W 34–30; defense 52.9 percentile2017 Week 8: Air Force at Nevada · W 45–42; defense 6.0 percentile2017 Week 9: Air Force at Colorado State · W 45–28; defense 15.1 percentile2017 Week 10: Air Force vs. Army · L 0–21; defense 26.2 percentile2017 Week 11: Air Force vs. Wyoming · L 14–28; defense 52.1 percentile2017 Week 12: Air Force at Boise State · L 19–44; defense 27.4 percentile2017 Week 13: Air Force vs. Utah State · W 38–35; defense 22.7 percentile2018 Week 1: Air Force vs. Stony Brook · W 38–0; defense 89.7 percentile2018 Week 4: Air Force at Utah State · L 32–42; defense 39.4 percentile2018 Week 5: Air Force vs. Nevada · L 25–28; defense 26.1 percentile2018 Week 6: Air Force vs. Navy · W 35–7; defense 97.2 percentile2018 Week 7: Air Force at San Diego State · L 17–21; defense 87.6 percentile2018 Week 8: Air Force at UNLV · W 41–35; defense 41.7 percentile2018 Week 9: Air Force vs. Boise State · L 38–48; defense 16.3 percentile2018 Week 10: Air Force at Army · L 14–17; defense 77.8 percentile2018 Week 11: Air Force vs. New Mexico · W 42–24; defense 29.6 percentile2018 Week 12: Air Force at Wyoming · L 27–35; defense 25.0 percentile2018 Week 13: Air Force vs. Colorado State · W 27–19; defense 10.5 percentile2019 Week 1: Air Force vs. Colgate · W 48–7; defense 67.6 percentile2019 Week 3: Air Force at Colorado · W 30–23; defense 46.6 percentile2019 Week 4: Air Force at Boise State · L 19–30; defense 39.3 percentile2019 Week 5: Air Force vs. San José State · W 41–24; defense 66.2 percentile2019 Week 6: Air Force at Navy · L 25–34; defense 84.2 percentile2019 Week 7: Air Force vs. Fresno State · W 43–24; defense 33.8 percentile2019 Week 8: Air Force at Hawai'i · W 56–26; defense 14.7 percentile2019 Week 9: Air Force vs. Utah State · W 31–7; defense 95.5 percentile2019 Week 10: Air Force vs. Army · W 17–13; defense 66.5 percentile2019 Week 12: Air Force at Colorado State · W 38–21; defense 51.0 percentile2019 Week 13: Air Force at New Mexico · W 44–22; defense 13.7 percentile2019 Week 14: Air Force vs. Wyoming · W 20–6; defense 93.1 percentile2019 Week 1: Air Force vs. Washington State · W 31–21; defense 53.7 percentile2020 Week 5: Air Force vs. Navy · W 40–7; defense 42.1 percentile2020 Week 8: Air Force at San José State · L 6–17; defense 81.2 percentile2020 Week 9: Air Force vs. Boise State · L 30–49; defense 0.4 percentile2020 Week 12: Air Force vs. New Mexico · W 28–0; defense 80.2 percentile2020 Week 14: Air Force at Utah State · W 35–7; defense 46.6 percentile2020 Week 16: Air Force at Army · L 7–10; defense 72.0 percentile2021 Week 2: Air Force at Navy · W 23–3; defense 99.9 percentile2021 Week 3: Air Force vs. Utah State · L 45–49; defense 7.7 percentile2021 Week 4: Air Force vs. Florida Atlantic · W 31–7; defense 70.9 percentile2021 Week 5: Air Force at New Mexico · W 38–10; defense 40.4 percentile2021 Week 6: Air Force vs. Wyoming · W 24–14; defense 70.2 percentile2021 Week 7: Air Force at Boise State · W 24–17; defense 30.8 percentile2021 Week 8: Air Force vs. San Diego State · L 14–20; defense 32.9 percentile2021 Week 11: Air Force at Colorado State · W 35–21; defense 45.4 percentile2021 Week 12: Air Force at Nevada · W 41–39; defense 47.3 percentile2021 Week 13: Air Force vs. UNLV · W 48–14; defense 57.9 percentile2021 Week 1: Air Force vs. Louisville · W 31–28; defense 62.7 percentile2022 Week 1: Air Force vs. Northern Iowa · W 48–17; defense 29.7 percentile2022 Week 3: Air Force at Wyoming · L 14–17; defense 42.5 percentile2022 Week 4: Air Force vs. Nevada · W 48–20; defense 13.9 percentile2022 Week 5: Air Force vs. Navy · W 13–10; defense 69.2 percentile2022 Week 6: Air Force at Utah State · L 27–34; defense 17.3 percentile2022 Week 7: Air Force at UNLV · W 42–7; defense 39.9 percentile2022 Week 8: Air Force vs. Boise State · L 14–19; defense 40.7 percentile2022 Week 10: Air Force vs. Army · W 13–7; defense 92.8 percentile2022 Week 11: Air Force vs. New Mexico · W 35–3; defense 54.3 percentile2022 Week 12: Air Force vs. Colorado State · W 24–12; defense 22.0 percentile2022 Week 13: Air Force at San Diego State · W 13–3; defense 71.7 percentile2022 Week 1: Air Force vs. Baylor · W 30–15; defense 98.9 percentile2023 Week 1: Air Force vs. Robert Morris · W 42–7; defense 70.3 percentile2023 Week 2: Air Force vs. Sam Houston · W 13–3; defense 93.1 percentile2023 Week 3: Air Force vs. Utah State · W 39–21; defense 35.0 percentile2023 Week 4: Air Force at San José State · W 45–20; defense 28.8 percentile2023 Week 5: Air Force vs. San Diego State · W 49–10; defense 62.0 percentile2023 Week 7: Air Force vs. Wyoming · W 34–27; defense 13.1 percentile2023 Week 8: Air Force at Navy · W 17–6; defense 99.8 percentile2023 Week 9: Air Force at Colorado State · W 30–13; defense 64.6 percentile2023 Week 10: Air Force vs. Army · L 3–23; defense 63.7 percentile2023 Week 11: Air Force at Hawai'i · L 13–27; defense 32.2 percentile2023 Week 12: Air Force vs. UNLV · L 27–31; defense 46.4 percentile2023 Week 13: Air Force at Boise State · L 19–27; defense 51.4 percentile2023 Week 1: Air Force vs. James Madison · W 31–21; defense 83.4 percentile2024 Week 1: Air Force vs. Merrimack · W 21–6; defense 57.4 percentile2024 Week 2: Air Force vs. San José State · L 7–17; defense 90.1 percentile2024 Week 3: Air Force at Baylor · L 3–31; defense 34.5 percentile2024 Week 5: Air Force at Wyoming · L 19–31; defense 21.5 percentile2024 Week 6: Air Force vs. Navy · L 7–34; defense 14.7 percentile2024 Week 7: Air Force at New Mexico · L 37–52; defense 10.9 percentile2024 Week 8: Air Force vs. Colorado State · L 13–21; defense 32.1 percentile2024 Week 10: Air Force at Army · L 3–20; defense 80.9 percentile2024 Week 11: Air Force vs. Fresno State · W 36–28; defense 48.5 percentile2024 Week 12: Air Force vs. Oregon State · W 28–0; defense 92.9 percentile2024 Week 13: Air Force at Nevada · W 22–19; defense 59.9 percentile2024 Week 14: Air Force at San Diego State · W 31–20; defense 32.3 percentile2025 Week 1: Air Force vs. Bucknell · W 49–13; defense 26.2 percentile2025 Week 4: Air Force vs. Boise State · L 37–49; defense 0.1 percentile2025 Week 5: Air Force vs. Hawai'i · L 35–44; defense 19.4 percentile2025 Week 6: Air Force at Navy · L 31–34; defense 30.5 percentile2025 Week 7: Air Force at UNLV · L 48–51; defense 13.0 percentile2025 Week 10: Air Force vs. Army · L 17–20; defense 46.8 percentile2025 Week 11: Air Force at San José State · W 26–16; defense 14.6 percentile2025 Week 12: Air Force at UConn · L 16–26; defense 10.6 percentile2025 Week 13: Air Force vs. New Mexico · L 3–20; defense 27.8 percentile2025 Week 14: Air Force at Colorado State · W 42–21; defense 17.8 percentile2026 Week 1: Air Force vs. Duquesne · W 34–0; defense 62.7 percentile2014 defense season mean: 64.7 percentile2015 defense season mean: 62.2 percentile2016 defense season mean: 65.2 percentile2017 defense season mean: 28.6 percentile2018 defense season mean: 52.0 percentile2019 defense season mean: 58.2 percentile2020 defense season mean: 45.7 percentile2021 defense season mean: 57.3 percentile2022 defense season mean: 53.0 percentile2023 defense season mean: 63.1 percentile2024 defense season mean: 48.8 percentile2025 defense season mean: 15.7 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 19.5 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 62.7 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateTroy Calhoun1
64.7 estimate45.9 games-only average
19.5 estimate62.7 games-only average
2025Troy Calhoun1066.915.7
2024Troy Calhoun1227.148.8
2023Troy Calhoun1369.563.1
2022Troy Calhoun1275.153.0
2021Troy Calhoun1180.857.3
2020Troy Calhoun677.945.7
2019Troy Calhoun1380.558.2
2018Troy Calhoun1162.252.0
2017Troy Calhoun1260.228.6
2016Troy Calhoun1262.865.2
2015Troy Calhoun1467.562.2
2014Troy Calhoun1345.264.7