2014–2026 program trends

How has each program actually played?

Follow average offense and defense game grades across seasons, and see where a head-coaching change fits into the trajectory.

139program histories
138current FBS teams
13seasons shown

Find a program

Offense and defense over time

Each game grade is converted to a normal-score Z, the season’s Z-scores are averaged, and that result is translated back to the 0–100 scale. The 2026 number uses 2025 as eight games of evidence.

139 matching programs

Mountain West

Air Force

Troy Calhoun

Offense
64.7
Defense
19.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mid-American

Akron

Joe Moorhead

Offense
24.0
Defense
30.0
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
SEC

Alabama

Kalen DeBoer

Offense
63.7
Defense
77.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Sun Belt

App State

Dowell Loggains

Offense
38.6
Defense
30.4
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big 12

Arizona

Brent Brennan

Offense
62.4
Defense
65.6
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big 12

Arizona State

Kenny Dillingham

Offense
56.0
Defense
64.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
SEC

Arkansas

Ryan Silverfield

Offense
69.3
Defense
20.8
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Sun Belt

Arkansas State

Butch Jones

Offense
36.7
Defense
39.7
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
American Athletic

Army

Jeff Monken

Offense
48.5
Defense
51.3
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
SEC

Auburn

Alex Golesh

Offense
59.9
Defense
70.4
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big 12

BYU

Kalani Sitake

Offense
75.3
Defense
68.0
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mid-American

Ball State

Mike Uremovich

Offense
12.7
Defense
25.8
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big 12

Baylor

Dave Aranda

Offense
54.2
Defense
37.7
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Pac-12

Boise State

Spencer Danielson

Offense
54.5
Defense
60.2
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
ACC

Boston College

Bill O'Brien

Offense
35.7
Defense
28.6
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mid-American

Bowling Green

Eddie George

Offense
21.7
Defense
39.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mid-American

Buffalo

Pete Lembo

Offense
21.0
Defense
46.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
ACC

California

Tosh Lupoi

Offense
28.2
Defense
29.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mid-American

Central Michigan

Matt Drinkall

Offense
33.8
Defense
39.0
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
American Athletic

Charlotte

Tim Albin

Offense
13.3
Defense
20.4
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big 12

Cincinnati

Scott Satterfield

Offense
72.5
Defense
42.1
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
ACC

Clemson

Dabo Swinney

Offense
43.0
Defense
51.8
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Sun Belt

Coastal Carolina

Ryan Beard

Offense
21.5
Defense
34.6
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big 12

Colorado

Deion Sanders

Offense
37.1
Defense
45.1
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Pac-12

Colorado State

Jim Mora

Offense
30.6
Defense
25.4
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Conference USA

Delaware

Ryan Carty

Offense
40.5
Defense
40.1
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
ACC

Duke

Manny Diaz

Offense
61.8
Defense
41.2
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
American Athletic

East Carolina

Blake Harrell

Offense
52.1
Defense
63.3
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mid-American

Eastern Michigan

Chris Creighton

Offense
31.1
Defense
22.8
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
SEC

Florida

Jon Sumrall

Offense
57.0
Defense
58.3
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
American Athletic

Florida Atlantic

Zach Kittley

Offense
47.2
Defense
24.3
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Conference USA

Florida International

Willie Simmons

Offense
30.2
Defense
46.4
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
ACC

Florida State

Mike Norvell

Offense
79.8
Defense
43.8
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Pac-12

Fresno State

Matt Entz

Offense
29.8
Defense
61.7
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
SEC

Georgia

Kirby Smart

Offense
76.2
Defense
82.4
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Sun Belt

Georgia Southern

Clay Helton

Offense
55.2
Defense
22.2
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Sun Belt

Georgia State

Dell McGee

Offense
35.3
Defense
22.6
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
ACC

Georgia Tech

Brent Key

Offense
69.3
Defense
37.8
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mountain West

Hawai'i

Timmy Chang

Offense
42.8
Defense
36.3
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big 12

Houston

Willie Fritz

Offense
58.4
Defense
45.4
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Sun Belt

Idaho

Paul Petrino

Offense
23.7
Defense
47.8
2017 season averageView history →
Big Ten

Illinois

Bret Bielema

Offense
63.7
Defense
46.8
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big Ten

Indiana

Curt Cignetti

Offense
90.2
Defense
89.0
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big Ten

Iowa

Kirk Ferentz

Offense
56.6
Defense
81.8
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big 12

Iowa State

Jimmy Rogers

Offense
45.5
Defense
49.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Conference USA

Jacksonville State

Charles Kelly

Offense
48.8
Defense
37.0
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Sun Belt

James Madison

Billy Napier

Offense
69.6
Defense
83.9
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big 12

Kansas

Lance Leipold

Offense
70.3
Defense
46.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big 12

Kansas State

Collin Klein

Offense
66.3
Defense
63.2
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Conference USA

Kennesaw State

Jerry Mack

Offense
59.1
Defense
49.7
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mid-American

Kent State

Mark Carney

Offense
24.6
Defense
17.3
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
SEC

Kentucky

Will Stein

Offense
48.3
Defense
45.1
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
SEC

LSU

Lane Kiffin

Offense
44.0
Defense
79.8
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Conference USA

Liberty

Jamey Chadwell

Offense
48.3
Defense
37.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Sun Belt

Louisiana

Michael Desormeaux

Offense
35.6
Defense
29.4
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Sun Belt

Louisiana Tech

Sonny Cumbie

Offense
34.3
Defense
52.0
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
ACC

Louisville

Jeff Brohm

Offense
66.5
Defense
63.9
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Sun Belt

Marshall

Tony Gibson

Offense
29.0
Defense
40.8
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big Ten

Maryland

Mike Locksley

Offense
31.6
Defense
53.4
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mid-American

Massachusetts

Joe Harasymiak

Offense
10.8
Defense
14.9
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
American Athletic

Memphis

Charles Huff

Offense
63.9
Defense
61.1
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
ACC

Miami

Mario Cristobal

Offense
79.3
Defense
84.3
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mid-American

Miami (OH)

Chuck Martin

Offense
46.7
Defense
46.6
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big Ten

Michigan

Kyle Whittingham

Offense
69.6
Defense
71.0
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big Ten

Michigan State

Pat Fitzgerald

Offense
45.7
Defense
42.6
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Conference USA

Middle Tennessee

Derek Mason

Offense
30.4
Defense
27.4
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big Ten

Minnesota

P.J. Fleck

Offense
24.9
Defense
40.6
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
SEC

Mississippi State

Jeff Lebby

Offense
75.3
Defense
44.4
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
SEC

Missouri

Eli Drinkwitz

Offense
60.5
Defense
75.1
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Conference USA

Missouri State

Casey Woods

Offense
44.7
Defense
28.8
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
ACC

NC State

Dave Doeren

Offense
66.1
Defense
43.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
American Athletic

Navy

Brian Newberry

Offense
77.9
Defense
43.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big Ten

Nebraska

Matt Rhule

Offense
62.7
Defense
43.6
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mountain West

Nevada

Jeff Choate

Offense
35.3
Defense
43.3
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mountain West

New Mexico

Jason Eck

Offense
50.3
Defense
57.2
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Conference USA

New Mexico State

Tony Sanchez

Offense
25.7
Defense
38.6
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
ACC

North Carolina

Bill Belichick

Offense
35.2
Defense
45.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mountain West

North Dakota State

Tim Polasek

Offense
50.0
Defense
54.4
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
American Athletic

North Texas

Neal Brown

Offense
87.2
Defense
49.1
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mountain West

Northern Illinois

Rob Harley

Offense
18.6
Defense
32.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big Ten

Northwestern

David Braun

Offense
40.1
Defense
42.3
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
FBS Independents

Notre Dame

Marcus Freeman

Offense
81.4
Defense
80.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mid-American

Ohio

John Hauser

Offense
62.0
Defense
30.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big Ten

Ohio State

Ryan Day

Offense
84.6
Defense
93.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
SEC

Oklahoma

Brent Venables

Offense
47.1
Defense
92.3
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big 12

Oklahoma State

Eric Morris

Offense
22.5
Defense
41.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Sun Belt

Old Dominion

Ricky Rahne

Offense
54.5
Defense
73.0
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
SEC

Ole Miss

Pete Golding

Offense
77.0
Defense
55.2
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big Ten

Oregon

Dan Lanning

Offense
83.5
Defense
73.1
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Pac-12

Oregon State

JaMarcus Shephard

Offense
23.3
Defense
36.0
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big Ten

Penn State

Matt Campbell

Offense
63.1
Defense
70.2
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
ACC

Pittsburgh

Pat Narduzzi

Offense
58.6
Defense
72.3
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big Ten

Purdue

Barry Odom

Offense
43.8
Defense
26.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
American Athletic

Rice

Scott Abell

Offense
13.9
Defense
40.0
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big Ten

Rutgers

Greg Schiano

Offense
42.2
Defense
12.7
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
ACC

SMU

Rhett Lashlee

Offense
64.1
Defense
67.0
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mid-American

Sacramento State

Alonzo Carter

Offense
39.1
Defense
53.0
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Conference USA

Sam Houston

Phil Longo

Offense
17.2
Defense
17.4
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Pac-12

San Diego State

Sean Lewis

Offense
47.2
Defense
70.6
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mountain West

San José State

Ken Niumatalolo

Offense
45.3
Defense
38.0
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Sun Belt

South Alabama

Major Applewhite

Offense
44.8
Defense
22.9
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
SEC

South Carolina

Shane Beamer

Offense
47.6
Defense
64.3
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
American Athletic

South Florida

Brian Hartline

Offense
70.9
Defense
68.6
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Sun Belt

Southern Miss

Blake Anderson

Offense
45.5
Defense
40.9
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
ACC

Stanford

Tavita Pritchard

Offense
30.2
Defense
48.4
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
ACC

Syracuse

Fran Brown

Offense
24.7
Defense
40.6
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big 12

TCU

Sonny Dykes

Offense
53.0
Defense
50.8
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
American Athletic

Temple

K.C. Keeler

Offense
34.7
Defense
28.0
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
SEC

Tennessee

Josh Heupel

Offense
77.9
Defense
42.4
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
SEC

Texas

Steve Sarkisian

Offense
63.1
Defense
83.3
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
SEC

Texas A&M

Mike Elko

Offense
74.8
Defense
74.1
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Pac-12

Texas State

G.J. Kinne

Offense
73.6
Defense
40.8
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big 12

Texas Tech

Joey McGuire

Offense
65.0
Defense
90.1
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mid-American

Toledo

Mike Jacobs

Offense
55.9
Defense
73.3
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Sun Belt

Troy

Gerad Parker

Offense
20.7
Defense
51.8
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
American Athletic

Tulane

Will Hall

Offense
54.1
Defense
57.0
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
American Athletic

Tulsa

Tre Lamb

Offense
30.1
Defense
42.4
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
American Athletic

UAB

Alex Mortensen

Offense
49.1
Defense
16.1
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big 12

UCF

Scott Frost

Offense
45.2
Defense
52.9
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big Ten

UCLA

Bob Chesney

Offense
44.8
Defense
31.4
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
FBS Independents

UConn

Jason Candle

Offense
57.1
Defense
23.8
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Sun Belt

UL Monroe

Bryant Vincent

Offense
17.4
Defense
26.3
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mountain West

UNLV

Dan Mullen

Offense
63.2
Defense
37.1
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big Ten

USC

Lincoln Riley

Offense
84.1
Defense
59.0
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mountain West

UTEP

Scotty Walden

Offense
21.3
Defense
48.7
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
American Athletic

UTSA

Jeff Traylor

Offense
54.0
Defense
43.9
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big 12

Utah

Morgan Scalley

Offense
88.6
Defense
58.4
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Pac-12

Utah State

Bronco Mendenhall

Offense
45.1
Defense
44.3
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
SEC

Vanderbilt

Clark Lea

Offense
85.0
Defense
45.7
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
ACC

Virginia

Tony Elliott

Offense
57.4
Defense
69.1
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
ACC

Virginia Tech

James Franklin

Offense
55.1
Defense
42.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
ACC

Wake Forest

Jake Dickert

Offense
52.4
Defense
70.7
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big Ten

Washington

Jedd Fisch

Offense
62.5
Defense
66.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Pac-12

Washington State

Kirby Moore

Offense
40.4
Defense
59.5
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big 12

West Virginia

Rich Rodriguez

Offense
29.6
Defense
47.7
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Conference USA

Western Kentucky

Tyson Helton

Offense
42.2
Defense
36.6
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mid-American

Western Michigan

Lance Taylor

Offense
46.9
Defense
66.1
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Big Ten

Wisconsin

Luke Fickell

Offense
28.2
Defense
71.2
2026 Bayesian estimateView history →
Mountain West

Wyoming

Jay Sawvel

Offense
12.3
Defense
47.9