2014–2026 performance history

Texas Tech over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

Big 12Head coach: Joey McGuireView Texas Tech games →
Offense · 2026 estimate65.0/100

28.2 average through 1 game

69.4 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate90.1/100

49.5 average through 1 game

92.6 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

Texas Tech individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.Kingsbury · ’14–’18Kliff Kingsbury, 2014–2018Wells · ’19–’21Matt Wells, 2019–2021McGuire · ’22–’26Joey McGuire, 2022–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Central Arkansas · W 42–35; offense 57.9 percentile2014 Week 2: Texas Tech at UTEP · W 30–26; offense 87.2 percentile2014 Week 3: Texas Tech vs. Arkansas · L 28–49; offense 75.8 percentile2014 Week 5: Texas Tech at Oklahoma State · L 35–45; offense 67.3 percentile2014 Week 6: Texas Tech at Kansas State · L 13–45; offense 57.8 percentile2014 Week 7: Texas Tech vs. West Virginia · L 34–37; offense 71.9 percentile2014 Week 8: Texas Tech vs. Kansas · W 34–21; offense 65.8 percentile2014 Week 9: Texas Tech at TCU · L 27–82; offense 76.1 percentile2014 Week 10: Texas Tech vs. Texas · L 13–34; offense 29.3 percentile2014 Week 12: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma · L 30–42; offense 84.9 percentile2014 Week 13: Texas Tech at Iowa State · W 34–31; offense 72.8 percentile2014 Week 14: Texas Tech vs. Baylor · L 46–48; offense 93.8 percentile2015 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Sam Houston · W 59–45; offense 70.4 percentile2015 Week 2: Texas Tech vs. UTEP · W 69–20; offense 98.2 percentile2015 Week 3: Texas Tech at Arkansas · W 35–24; offense 98.0 percentile2015 Week 4: Texas Tech vs. TCU · L 52–55; offense 96.8 percentile2015 Week 5: Texas Tech vs. Baylor · L 35–63; offense 69.0 percentile2015 Week 6: Texas Tech vs. Iowa State · W 66–31; offense 99.4 percentile2015 Week 7: Texas Tech at Kansas · W 30–20; offense 24.7 percentile2015 Week 8: Texas Tech at Oklahoma · L 27–63; offense 90.3 percentile2015 Week 9: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State · L 53–70; offense 75.0 percentile2015 Week 10: Texas Tech at West Virginia · L 26–31; offense 68.9 percentile2015 Week 11: Texas Tech vs. Kansas State · W 59–44; offense 95.0 percentile2015 Week 13: Texas Tech at Texas · W 48–45; offense 76.6 percentile2015 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. LSU · L 27–56; offense 41.5 percentile2016 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Stephen F. Austin · W 69–17; offense 70.0 percentile2016 Week 2: Texas Tech at Arizona State · L 55–68; offense 88.4 percentile2016 Week 3: Texas Tech vs. Louisiana Tech · W 59–45; offense 97.2 percentile2016 Week 5: Texas Tech vs. Kansas · W 55–19; offense 69.9 percentile2016 Week 6: Texas Tech at Kansas State · L 38–44; offense 60.9 percentile2016 Week 7: Texas Tech vs. West Virginia · L 17–48; offense 25.5 percentile2016 Week 8: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma · L 59–66; offense 99.2 percentile2016 Week 9: Texas Tech at TCU · W 27–24; offense 30.7 percentile2016 Week 10: Texas Tech vs. Texas · L 37–45; offense 49.2 percentile2016 Week 11: Texas Tech at Oklahoma State · L 44–45; offense 67.5 percentile2016 Week 12: Texas Tech at Iowa State · L 10–66; offense 6.9 percentile2016 Week 13: Texas Tech vs. Baylor · W 54–35; offense 84.8 percentile2017 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Eastern Washington · W 56–10; offense 70.3 percentile2017 Week 3: Texas Tech vs. Arizona State · W 52–45; offense 91.2 percentile2017 Week 4: Texas Tech at Houston · W 27–24; offense 49.8 percentile2017 Week 5: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State · L 34–41; offense 35.6 percentile2017 Week 6: Texas Tech at Kansas · W 65–19; offense 87.5 percentile2017 Week 7: Texas Tech at West Virginia · L 35–46; offense 86.8 percentile2017 Week 8: Texas Tech vs. Iowa State · L 13–31; offense 44.6 percentile2017 Week 9: Texas Tech at Oklahoma · L 27–49; offense 72.4 percentile2017 Week 11: Texas Tech vs. Baylor · W 38–24; offense 36.8 percentile2017 Week 12: Texas Tech vs. TCU · L 3–27; offense 36.4 percentile2017 Week 13: Texas Tech at Texas · W 27–23; offense 46.3 percentile2017 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. South Florida · L 34–38; offense 90.0 percentile2018 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss · L 27–47; offense 17.1 percentile2018 Week 2: Texas Tech vs. Lamar · W 77–0; offense 60.1 percentile2018 Week 3: Texas Tech vs. Houston · W 63–49; offense 61.4 percentile2018 Week 4: Texas Tech at Oklahoma State · W 41–17; offense 87.3 percentile2018 Week 5: Texas Tech vs. West Virginia · L 34–42; offense 59.1 percentile2018 Week 7: Texas Tech at TCU · W 17–14; offense 27.6 percentile2018 Week 8: Texas Tech vs. Kansas · W 48–16; offense 55.7 percentile2018 Week 9: Texas Tech at Iowa State · L 31–40; offense 35.9 percentile2018 Week 10: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma · L 46–51; offense 44.9 percentile2018 Week 11: Texas Tech vs. Texas · L 34–41; offense 92.4 percentile2018 Week 12: Texas Tech at Kansas State · L 6–21; offense 1.7 percentile2018 Week 13: Texas Tech vs. Baylor · L 24–35; offense 53.5 percentile2019 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Montana State · W 45–10; offense 53.7 percentile2019 Week 2: Texas Tech vs. UTEP · W 38–3; offense 52.2 percentile2019 Week 3: Texas Tech at Arizona · L 14–28; offense 8.5 percentile2019 Week 5: Texas Tech at Oklahoma · L 16–55; offense 25.9 percentile2019 Week 6: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State · W 45–35; offense 53.7 percentile2019 Week 7: Texas Tech at Baylor · L 30–33; offense 68.8 percentile2019 Week 8: Texas Tech vs. Iowa State · L 24–34; offense 46.4 percentile2019 Week 9: Texas Tech at Kansas · L 34–37; offense 60.2 percentile2019 Week 11: Texas Tech at West Virginia · W 38–17; offense 61.1 percentile2019 Week 12: Texas Tech vs. TCU · L 31–33; offense 91.0 percentile2019 Week 13: Texas Tech vs. Kansas State · L 27–30; offense 68.4 percentile2019 Week 14: Texas Tech at Texas · L 24–49; offense 50.6 percentile2020 Week 2: Texas Tech vs. Houston Christian · W 35–33; offense 28.8 percentile2020 Week 4: Texas Tech vs. Texas · L 56–63; offense 69.5 percentile2020 Week 5: Texas Tech at Kansas State · L 21–31; offense 63.7 percentile2020 Week 6: Texas Tech at Iowa State · L 15–31; offense 18.2 percentile2020 Week 8: Texas Tech vs. West Virginia · W 34–27; offense 78.6 percentile2020 Week 9: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma · L 28–62; offense 59.1 percentile2020 Week 10: Texas Tech at TCU · L 18–34; offense 36.4 percentile2020 Week 11: Texas Tech vs. Baylor · W 24–23; offense 29.7 percentile2020 Week 13: Texas Tech at Oklahoma State · L 44–50; offense 83.8 percentile2020 Week 14: Texas Tech vs. Kansas · W 16–13; offense 21.1 percentile2021 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Houston · W 38–21; offense 91.7 percentile2021 Week 3: Texas Tech vs. Florida International · W 54–21; offense 81.5 percentile2021 Week 4: Texas Tech at Texas · L 35–70; offense 63.6 percentile2021 Week 5: Texas Tech at West Virginia · W 23–20; offense 39.0 percentile2021 Week 6: Texas Tech vs. TCU · L 31–52; offense 56.6 percentile2021 Week 7: Texas Tech at Kansas · W 41–14; offense 78.6 percentile2021 Week 8: Texas Tech vs. Kansas State · L 24–25; offense 29.9 percentile2021 Week 9: Texas Tech at Oklahoma · L 21–52; offense 50.7 percentile2021 Week 11: Texas Tech vs. Iowa State · W 41–38; offense 91.3 percentile2021 Week 12: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State · L 0–23; offense 0.5 percentile2021 Week 13: Texas Tech at Baylor · L 24–27; offense 94.1 percentile2021 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Mississippi State · W 34–7; offense 89.1 percentile2022 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Murray State · W 63–10; offense 78.6 percentile2022 Week 2: Texas Tech vs. Houston · W 33–30; offense 25.0 percentile2022 Week 3: Texas Tech at NC State · L 14–27; offense 36.7 percentile2022 Week 4: Texas Tech vs. Texas · W 37–34; offense 54.0 percentile2022 Week 5: Texas Tech at Kansas State · L 28–37; offense 55.2 percentile2022 Week 6: Texas Tech at Oklahoma State · L 31–41; offense 71.9 percentile2022 Week 8: Texas Tech vs. West Virginia · W 48–10; offense 67.8 percentile2022 Week 9: Texas Tech vs. Baylor · L 17–45; offense 49.6 percentile2022 Week 10: Texas Tech at TCU · L 24–34; offense 20.2 percentile2022 Week 11: Texas Tech vs. Kansas · W 43–28; offense 57.7 percentile2022 Week 12: Texas Tech at Iowa State · W 14–10; offense 22.0 percentile2022 Week 13: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma · W 51–48; offense 63.2 percentile2022 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss · W 42–25; offense 67.0 percentile2023 Week 1: Texas Tech at Wyoming · L 33–35; offense 43.1 percentile2023 Week 2: Texas Tech vs. Oregon · L 30–38; offense 91.4 percentile2023 Week 3: Texas Tech vs. Tarleton State · W 41–3; offense 24.3 percentile2023 Week 4: Texas Tech at West Virginia · L 13–20; offense 24.6 percentile2023 Week 5: Texas Tech vs. Houston · W 49–28; offense 79.0 percentile2023 Week 6: Texas Tech at Baylor · W 39–14; offense 66.4 percentile2023 Week 7: Texas Tech vs. Kansas State · L 21–38; offense 58.3 percentile2023 Week 8: Texas Tech at BYU · L 14–27; offense 28.3 percentile2023 Week 10: Texas Tech vs. TCU · W 35–28; offense 49.9 percentile2023 Week 11: Texas Tech at Kansas · W 16–13; offense 13.4 percentile2023 Week 12: Texas Tech vs. UCF · W 24–23; offense 74.7 percentile2023 Week 13: Texas Tech at Texas · L 7–57; offense 28.6 percentile2023 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. California · W 34–14; offense 39.5 percentile2024 Week 2: Texas Tech at Washington State · L 16–37; offense 36.3 percentile2024 Week 3: Texas Tech vs. North Texas · W 66–21; offense 86.3 percentile2024 Week 4: Texas Tech vs. Arizona State · W 30–22; offense 47.2 percentile2024 Week 5: Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati · W 44–41; offense 83.7 percentile2024 Week 6: Texas Tech at Arizona · W 28–22; offense 29.1 percentile2024 Week 8: Texas Tech vs. Baylor · L 35–59; offense 46.7 percentile2024 Week 9: Texas Tech at TCU · L 34–35; offense 57.5 percentile2024 Week 10: Texas Tech at Iowa State · W 23–22; offense 56.9 percentile2024 Week 11: Texas Tech vs. Colorado · L 27–41; offense 39.8 percentile2024 Week 13: Texas Tech at Oklahoma State · W 56–48; offense 54.9 percentile2024 Week 14: Texas Tech vs. West Virginia · W 52–15; offense 91.5 percentile2024 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Arkansas · L 26–39; offense 69.7 percentile2025 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff · W 67–7; offense 98.9 percentile2025 Week 2: Texas Tech vs. Kent State · W 62–14; offense 79.8 percentile2025 Week 3: Texas Tech vs. Oregon State · W 45–14; offense 86.3 percentile2025 Week 4: Texas Tech at Utah · W 34–10; offense 63.7 percentile2025 Week 6: Texas Tech at Houston · W 35–11; offense 84.8 percentile2025 Week 7: Texas Tech vs. Kansas · W 42–17; offense 81.3 percentile2025 Week 8: Texas Tech at Arizona State · L 22–26; offense 31.0 percentile2025 Week 9: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State · W 42–0; offense 35.5 percentile2025 Week 10: Texas Tech at Kansas State · W 43–20; offense 60.2 percentile2025 Week 11: Texas Tech vs. BYU · W 29–7; offense 43.6 percentile2025 Week 12: Texas Tech vs. UCF · W 48–9; offense 94.8 percentile2025 Week 14: Texas Tech at West Virginia · W 49–0; offense 82.1 percentile2025 Week 15: Texas Tech vs. BYU · W 34–7; offense 64.0 percentile2025 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Oregon · L 0–23; offense 6.2 percentile2026 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Abilene Christian · W 33–10; offense 28.2 percentile2014 offense season mean: 72.0 percentile2015 offense season mean: 85.0 percentile2016 offense season mean: 68.1 percentile2017 offense season mean: 65.4 percentile2018 offense season mean: 48.0 percentile2019 offense season mean: 53.3 percentile2020 offense season mean: 48.9 percentile2021 offense season mean: 64.2 percentile2022 offense season mean: 51.2 percentile2023 offense season mean: 48.1 percentile2024 offense season mean: 60.3 percentile2025 offense season mean: 69.4 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 65.0 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 28.2 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Central Arkansas · W 42–35; defense 11.2 percentile2014 Week 2: Texas Tech at UTEP · W 30–26; defense 47.4 percentile2014 Week 3: Texas Tech vs. Arkansas · L 28–49; defense 0.2 percentile2014 Week 5: Texas Tech at Oklahoma State · L 35–45; defense 9.9 percentile2014 Week 6: Texas Tech at Kansas State · L 13–45; defense 30.5 percentile2014 Week 7: Texas Tech vs. West Virginia · L 34–37; defense 17.6 percentile2014 Week 8: Texas Tech vs. Kansas · W 34–21; defense 36.4 percentile2014 Week 9: Texas Tech at TCU · L 27–82; defense 5.0 percentile2014 Week 10: Texas Tech vs. Texas · L 13–34; defense 14.6 percentile2014 Week 12: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma · L 30–42; defense 3.8 percentile2014 Week 13: Texas Tech at Iowa State · W 34–31; defense 10.4 percentile2014 Week 14: Texas Tech vs. Baylor · L 46–48; defense 54.5 percentile2015 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Sam Houston · W 59–45; defense 0.6 percentile2015 Week 2: Texas Tech vs. UTEP · W 69–20; defense 46.7 percentile2015 Week 3: Texas Tech at Arkansas · W 35–24; defense 19.5 percentile2015 Week 4: Texas Tech vs. TCU · L 52–55; defense 15.1 percentile2015 Week 5: Texas Tech vs. Baylor · L 35–63; defense 10.1 percentile2015 Week 6: Texas Tech vs. Iowa State · W 66–31; defense 21.4 percentile2015 Week 7: Texas Tech at Kansas · W 30–20; defense 33.5 percentile2015 Week 8: Texas Tech at Oklahoma · L 27–63; defense 2.7 percentile2015 Week 9: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State · L 53–70; defense 13.7 percentile2015 Week 10: Texas Tech at West Virginia · L 26–31; defense 37.6 percentile2015 Week 11: Texas Tech vs. Kansas State · W 59–44; defense 29.5 percentile2015 Week 13: Texas Tech at Texas · W 48–45; defense 29.7 percentile2015 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. LSU · L 27–56; defense 2.2 percentile2016 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Stephen F. Austin · W 69–17; defense 59.8 percentile2016 Week 2: Texas Tech at Arizona State · L 55–68; defense 3.2 percentile2016 Week 3: Texas Tech vs. Louisiana Tech · W 59–45; defense 20.9 percentile2016 Week 5: Texas Tech vs. Kansas · W 55–19; defense 69.3 percentile2016 Week 6: Texas Tech at Kansas State · L 38–44; defense 43.9 percentile2016 Week 7: Texas Tech vs. West Virginia · L 17–48; defense 1.5 percentile2016 Week 8: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma · L 59–66; defense 6.5 percentile2016 Week 9: Texas Tech at TCU · W 27–24; defense 69.6 percentile2016 Week 10: Texas Tech vs. Texas · L 37–45; defense 8.4 percentile2016 Week 11: Texas Tech at Oklahoma State · L 44–45; defense 9.9 percentile2016 Week 12: Texas Tech at Iowa State · L 10–66; defense 1.4 percentile2016 Week 13: Texas Tech vs. Baylor · W 54–35; defense 58.3 percentile2017 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Eastern Washington · W 56–10; defense 45.9 percentile2017 Week 3: Texas Tech vs. Arizona State · W 52–45; defense 19.2 percentile2017 Week 4: Texas Tech at Houston · W 27–24; defense 91.2 percentile2017 Week 5: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State · L 34–41; defense 15.6 percentile2017 Week 6: Texas Tech at Kansas · W 65–19; defense 52.7 percentile2017 Week 7: Texas Tech at West Virginia · L 35–46; defense 40.8 percentile2017 Week 8: Texas Tech vs. Iowa State · L 13–31; defense 18.7 percentile2017 Week 9: Texas Tech at Oklahoma · L 27–49; defense 18.9 percentile2017 Week 11: Texas Tech vs. Baylor · W 38–24; defense 27.5 percentile2017 Week 12: Texas Tech vs. TCU · L 3–27; defense 86.3 percentile2017 Week 13: Texas Tech at Texas · W 27–23; defense 64.7 percentile2017 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. South Florida · L 34–38; defense 33.7 percentile2018 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss · L 27–47; defense 17.0 percentile2018 Week 2: Texas Tech vs. Lamar · W 77–0; defense 82.9 percentile2018 Week 3: Texas Tech vs. Houston · W 63–49; defense 51.1 percentile2018 Week 4: Texas Tech at Oklahoma State · W 41–17; defense 72.7 percentile2018 Week 5: Texas Tech vs. West Virginia · L 34–42; defense 36.7 percentile2018 Week 7: Texas Tech at TCU · W 17–14; defense 75.1 percentile2018 Week 8: Texas Tech vs. Kansas · W 48–16; defense 78.8 percentile2018 Week 9: Texas Tech at Iowa State · L 31–40; defense 62.4 percentile2018 Week 10: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma · L 46–51; defense 27.9 percentile2018 Week 11: Texas Tech vs. Texas · L 34–41; defense 11.1 percentile2018 Week 12: Texas Tech at Kansas State · L 6–21; defense 66.7 percentile2018 Week 13: Texas Tech vs. Baylor · L 24–35; defense 14.0 percentile2019 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Montana State · W 45–10; defense 51.7 percentile2019 Week 2: Texas Tech vs. UTEP · W 38–3; defense 96.0 percentile2019 Week 3: Texas Tech at Arizona · L 14–28; defense 33.0 percentile2019 Week 5: Texas Tech at Oklahoma · L 16–55; defense 25.1 percentile2019 Week 6: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State · W 45–35; defense 65.0 percentile2019 Week 7: Texas Tech at Baylor · L 30–33; defense 38.2 percentile2019 Week 8: Texas Tech vs. Iowa State · L 24–34; defense 34.3 percentile2019 Week 9: Texas Tech at Kansas · L 34–37; defense 25.2 percentile2019 Week 11: Texas Tech at West Virginia · W 38–17; defense 57.5 percentile2019 Week 12: Texas Tech vs. TCU · L 31–33; defense 25.9 percentile2019 Week 13: Texas Tech vs. Kansas State · L 27–30; defense 64.9 percentile2019 Week 14: Texas Tech at Texas · L 24–49; defense 15.5 percentile2020 Week 2: Texas Tech vs. Houston Christian · W 35–33; defense 24.9 percentile2020 Week 4: Texas Tech vs. Texas · L 56–63; defense 65.7 percentile2020 Week 5: Texas Tech at Kansas State · L 21–31; defense 15.1 percentile2020 Week 6: Texas Tech at Iowa State · L 15–31; defense 31.5 percentile2020 Week 8: Texas Tech vs. West Virginia · W 34–27; defense 23.1 percentile2020 Week 9: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma · L 28–62; defense 14.7 percentile2020 Week 10: Texas Tech at TCU · L 18–34; defense 68.9 percentile2020 Week 11: Texas Tech vs. Baylor · W 24–23; defense 33.8 percentile2020 Week 13: Texas Tech at Oklahoma State · L 44–50; defense 15.5 percentile2020 Week 14: Texas Tech vs. Kansas · W 16–13; defense 84.1 percentile2021 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Houston · W 38–21; defense 92.6 percentile2021 Week 3: Texas Tech vs. Florida International · W 54–21; defense 63.6 percentile2021 Week 4: Texas Tech at Texas · L 35–70; defense 1.1 percentile2021 Week 5: Texas Tech at West Virginia · W 23–20; defense 21.6 percentile2021 Week 6: Texas Tech vs. TCU · L 31–52; defense 13.8 percentile2021 Week 7: Texas Tech at Kansas · W 41–14; defense 66.7 percentile2021 Week 8: Texas Tech vs. Kansas State · L 24–25; defense 54.7 percentile2021 Week 9: Texas Tech at Oklahoma · L 21–52; defense 4.0 percentile2021 Week 11: Texas Tech vs. Iowa State · W 41–38; defense 40.5 percentile2021 Week 12: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State · L 0–23; defense 54.2 percentile2021 Week 13: Texas Tech at Baylor · L 24–27; defense 51.3 percentile2021 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Mississippi State · W 34–7; defense 87.7 percentile2022 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Murray State · W 63–10; defense 65.1 percentile2022 Week 2: Texas Tech vs. Houston · W 33–30; defense 90.2 percentile2022 Week 3: Texas Tech at NC State · L 14–27; defense 62.3 percentile2022 Week 4: Texas Tech vs. Texas · W 37–34; defense 47.0 percentile2022 Week 5: Texas Tech at Kansas State · L 28–37; defense 22.1 percentile2022 Week 6: Texas Tech at Oklahoma State · L 31–41; defense 16.4 percentile2022 Week 8: Texas Tech vs. West Virginia · W 48–10; defense 91.8 percentile2022 Week 9: Texas Tech vs. Baylor · L 17–45; defense 55.3 percentile2022 Week 10: Texas Tech at TCU · L 24–34; defense 77.1 percentile2022 Week 11: Texas Tech vs. Kansas · W 43–28; defense 29.1 percentile2022 Week 12: Texas Tech at Iowa State · W 14–10; defense 83.3 percentile2022 Week 13: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma · W 51–48; defense 21.3 percentile2022 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss · W 42–25; defense 73.9 percentile2023 Week 1: Texas Tech at Wyoming · L 33–35; defense 82.5 percentile2023 Week 2: Texas Tech vs. Oregon · L 30–38; defense 87.3 percentile2023 Week 3: Texas Tech vs. Tarleton State · W 41–3; defense 45.7 percentile2023 Week 4: Texas Tech at West Virginia · L 13–20; defense 95.9 percentile2023 Week 5: Texas Tech vs. Houston · W 49–28; defense 9.4 percentile2023 Week 6: Texas Tech at Baylor · W 39–14; defense 91.3 percentile2023 Week 7: Texas Tech vs. Kansas State · L 21–38; defense 22.6 percentile2023 Week 8: Texas Tech at BYU · L 14–27; defense 43.2 percentile2023 Week 10: Texas Tech vs. TCU · W 35–28; defense 62.8 percentile2023 Week 11: Texas Tech at Kansas · W 16–13; defense 86.3 percentile2023 Week 12: Texas Tech vs. UCF · W 24–23; defense 38.3 percentile2023 Week 13: Texas Tech at Texas · L 7–57; defense 35.2 percentile2023 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. California · W 34–14; defense 91.6 percentile2024 Week 2: Texas Tech at Washington State · L 16–37; defense 59.5 percentile2024 Week 3: Texas Tech vs. North Texas · W 66–21; defense 78.3 percentile2024 Week 4: Texas Tech vs. Arizona State · W 30–22; defense 86.1 percentile2024 Week 5: Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati · W 44–41; defense 18.0 percentile2024 Week 6: Texas Tech at Arizona · W 28–22; defense 68.0 percentile2024 Week 8: Texas Tech vs. Baylor · L 35–59; defense 5.2 percentile2024 Week 9: Texas Tech at TCU · L 34–35; defense 32.1 percentile2024 Week 10: Texas Tech at Iowa State · W 23–22; defense 82.2 percentile2024 Week 11: Texas Tech vs. Colorado · L 27–41; defense 79.3 percentile2024 Week 13: Texas Tech at Oklahoma State · W 56–48; defense 34.0 percentile2024 Week 14: Texas Tech vs. West Virginia · W 52–15; defense 66.7 percentile2024 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Arkansas · L 26–39; defense 29.8 percentile2025 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff · W 67–7; defense 80.0 percentile2025 Week 2: Texas Tech vs. Kent State · W 62–14; defense 96.9 percentile2025 Week 3: Texas Tech vs. Oregon State · W 45–14; defense 87.2 percentile2025 Week 4: Texas Tech at Utah · W 34–10; defense 99.3 percentile2025 Week 6: Texas Tech at Houston · W 35–11; defense 91.2 percentile2025 Week 7: Texas Tech vs. Kansas · W 42–17; defense 87.5 percentile2025 Week 8: Texas Tech at Arizona State · L 22–26; defense 77.8 percentile2025 Week 9: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State · W 42–0; defense 86.9 percentile2025 Week 10: Texas Tech at Kansas State · W 43–20; defense 72.8 percentile2025 Week 11: Texas Tech vs. BYU · W 29–7; defense 98.7 percentile2025 Week 12: Texas Tech vs. UCF · W 48–9; defense 81.7 percentile2025 Week 14: Texas Tech at West Virginia · W 49–0; defense 96.9 percentile2025 Week 15: Texas Tech vs. BYU · W 34–7; defense 91.8 percentile2025 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Oregon · L 0–23; defense 99.5 percentile2026 Week 1: Texas Tech vs. Abilene Christian · W 33–10; defense 49.5 percentile2014 defense season mean: 14.2 percentile2015 defense season mean: 15.2 percentile2016 defense season mean: 20.5 percentile2017 defense season mean: 43.0 percentile2018 defense season mean: 48.8 percentile2019 defense season mean: 45.4 percentile2020 defense season mean: 36.3 percentile2021 defense season mean: 41.7 percentile2022 defense season mean: 58.2 percentile2023 defense season mean: 64.8 percentile2024 defense season mean: 52.6 percentile2025 defense season mean: 92.6 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 90.1 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 49.5 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2019Matt Wells
2021Matt Wells / Sonny Cumbie
2022Joey McGuire

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateJoey McGuire1
65.0 estimate28.2 games-only average
90.1 estimate49.5 games-only average
2025Joey McGuire1469.492.6
2024Joey McGuire1260.352.6
2023Joey McGuire1348.164.8
2022Joey McGuireCoaching change1351.258.2
2021Matt Wells / Sonny CumbieCoaching change1264.241.7
2020Matt Wells1048.936.3
2019Matt WellsCoaching change1253.345.4
2018Kliff Kingsbury1248.048.8
2017Kliff Kingsbury1265.443.0
2016Kliff Kingsbury1268.120.5
2015Kliff Kingsbury1385.015.2
2014Kliff Kingsbury1272.014.2