2014–2026 performance history

San José State over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

Mountain WestHead coach: Ken NiumataloloView San José State games →
Offense · 2026 estimate45.3/100

27.7 average through 2 games

50.0 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate38.0/100

67.0 average through 2 games

31.2 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

San José State individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.Caragher · ’14–’16Ron Caragher, 2014–2016Brennan · ’17–’23Brent Brennan, 2017–2023Niumatalolo · ’24–’26Ken Niumatalolo, 2024–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: San José State vs. North Dakota · W 42–10; offense 37.8 percentile2014 Week 2: San José State at Auburn · L 13–59; offense 11.1 percentile2014 Week 4: San José State at Minnesota · L 7–24; offense 20.9 percentile2014 Week 5: San José State vs. Nevada · L 10–21; offense 18.7 percentile2014 Week 6: San José State vs. UNLV · W 33–10; offense 44.9 percentile2014 Week 8: San José State at Wyoming · W 27–20; offense 26.3 percentile2014 Week 9: San José State at Navy · L 31–41; offense 48.7 percentile2014 Week 11: San José State at Fresno State · L 24–38; offense 38.3 percentile2014 Week 12: San José State vs. Hawai'i · L 0–13; offense 32.1 percentile2014 Week 13: San José State at Utah State · L 7–41; offense 22.1 percentile2014 Week 14: San José State at San Diego State · L 7–38; offense 16.1 percentile2015 Week 1: San José State vs. New Hampshire · W 43–13; offense 69.2 percentile2015 Week 2: San José State at Air Force · L 16–37; offense 56.4 percentile2015 Week 3: San José State at Oregon State · L 21–35; offense 0.9 percentile2015 Week 4: San José State vs. Fresno State · W 49–23; offense 89.9 percentile2015 Week 5: San José State at Auburn · L 21–35; offense 72.8 percentile2015 Week 6: San José State at UNLV · W 33–27; offense 38.8 percentile2015 Week 7: San José State vs. San Diego State · L 7–30; offense 17.3 percentile2015 Week 8: San José State vs. New Mexico · W 31–21; offense 66.1 percentile2015 Week 10: San José State vs. BYU · L 16–17; offense 16.6 percentile2015 Week 11: San José State at Nevada · L 34–37; offense 75.4 percentile2015 Week 12: San José State at Hawai'i · W 42–23; offense 94.8 percentile2015 Week 13: San José State vs. Boise State · L 23–40; offense 89.6 percentile2015 Week 1: San José State vs. Georgia State · W 27–16; offense 25.7 percentile2016 Week 1: San José State at Tulsa · L 10–45; offense 16.3 percentile2016 Week 2: San José State vs. Portland State · W 66–35; offense 52.2 percentile2016 Week 3: San José State vs. Utah · L 17–34; offense 19.2 percentile2016 Week 4: San José State at Iowa State · L 10–44; offense 27.3 percentile2016 Week 5: San José State at New Mexico · L 41–48; offense 50.3 percentile2016 Week 6: San José State vs. Hawai'i · L 17–34; offense 8.1 percentile2016 Week 7: San José State vs. Nevada · W 14–10; offense 1.4 percentile2016 Week 8: San José State at San Diego State · L 3–42; offense 14.7 percentile2016 Week 9: San José State vs. UNLV · W 30–24; offense 17.1 percentile2016 Week 10: San José State at Boise State · L 31–45; offense 91.6 percentile2016 Week 12: San José State vs. Air Force · L 38–41; offense 89.6 percentile2016 Week 13: San José State at Fresno State · W 16–14; offense 13.7 percentile2017 Week 1: San José State vs. South Florida · L 22–42; offense 25.8 percentile2017 Week 1: San José State vs. Cal Poly · W 34–13; offense 10.8 percentile2017 Week 2: San José State at Texas · L 0–56; offense 3.4 percentile2017 Week 3: San José State at Utah · L 16–54; offense 5.0 percentile2017 Week 4: San José State vs. Utah State · L 10–61; offense 2.8 percentile2017 Week 5: San José State at UNLV · L 13–41; offense 30.2 percentile2017 Week 6: San José State vs. Fresno State · L 10–27; offense 22.7 percentile2017 Week 7: San José State at Hawai'i · L 26–37; offense 43.3 percentile2017 Week 9: San José State at BYU · L 20–41; offense 21.4 percentile2017 Week 10: San José State vs. San Diego State · L 7–52; offense 19.4 percentile2017 Week 12: San José State at Colorado State · L 14–42; offense 9.6 percentile2017 Week 13: San José State vs. Wyoming · W 20–17; offense 20.7 percentile2018 Week 1: San José State vs. UC Davis · L 38–44; offense 8.6 percentile2018 Week 2: San José State at Washington State · L 0–31; offense 0.8 percentile2018 Week 3: San José State at Oregon · L 22–35; offense 10.2 percentile2018 Week 5: San José State vs. Hawai'i · L 41–44; offense 30.9 percentile2018 Week 6: San José State vs. Colorado State · L 30–42; offense 2.4 percentile2018 Week 7: San José State vs. Army · L 3–52; offense 8.3 percentile2018 Week 8: San José State at San Diego State · L 13–16; offense 25.3 percentile2018 Week 9: San José State vs. UNLV · W 50–37; offense 65.8 percentile2018 Week 10: San José State at Wyoming · L 9–24; offense 13.3 percentile2018 Week 11: San José State at Utah State · L 24–62; offense 26.6 percentile2018 Week 12: San José State vs. Nevada · L 12–21; offense 9.0 percentile2018 Week 13: San José State at Fresno State · L 13–31; offense 47.8 percentile2019 Week 1: San José State vs. Northern Colorado · W 35–18; offense 36.3 percentile2019 Week 2: San José State vs. Tulsa · L 16–34; offense 14.7 percentile2019 Week 4: San José State at Arkansas · W 31–24; offense 23.8 percentile2019 Week 5: San José State at Air Force · L 24–41; offense 38.7 percentile2019 Week 6: San José State vs. New Mexico · W 32–21; offense 15.2 percentile2019 Week 7: San José State at Nevada · L 38–41; offense 46.5 percentile2019 Week 8: San José State vs. San Diego State · L 17–27; offense 62.3 percentile2019 Week 9: San José State at Army · W 34–29; offense 91.9 percentile2019 Week 10: San José State vs. Boise State · L 42–52; offense 78.5 percentile2019 Week 11: San José State at Hawai'i · L 40–42; offense 89.3 percentile2019 Week 13: San José State at UNLV · L 35–38; offense 63.3 percentile2019 Week 14: San José State vs. Fresno State · W 17–16; offense 11.2 percentile2020 Week 8: San José State vs. Air Force · W 17–6; offense 23.0 percentile2020 Week 10: San José State at San Diego State · W 28–17; offense 66.0 percentile2020 Week 11: San José State vs. UNLV · W 34–17; offense 82.4 percentile2020 Week 15: San José State vs. Nevada · W 30–20; offense 73.0 percentile2020 Week 16: San José State vs. Boise State · W 34–20; offense 49.4 percentile2020 Week 1: San José State vs. Ball State · L 13–34; offense 10.5 percentile2021 Week 3: San José State at Hawai'i · W 17–13; offense 2.9 percentile2021 Week 4: San José State at Western Michigan · L 3–23; offense 2.0 percentile2021 Week 5: San José State vs. New Mexico State · W 37–31; offense 69.4 percentile2021 Week 6: San José State at Colorado State · L 14–32; offense 43.7 percentile2021 Week 8: San José State at UNLV · W 27–20; offense 64.3 percentile2021 Week 9: San José State vs. Wyoming · W 27–21; offense 59.4 percentile2021 Week 10: San José State at Nevada · L 24–27; offense 80.6 percentile2021 Week 11: San José State vs. Utah State · L 17–48; offense 0.7 percentile2021 Week 13: San José State vs. Fresno State · L 9–40; offense 18.8 percentile2022 Week 1: San José State vs. Portland State · W 21–17; offense 1.0 percentile2022 Week 2: San José State at Auburn · L 16–24; offense 10.7 percentile2022 Week 5: San José State at Wyoming · W 33–16; offense 59.2 percentile2022 Week 6: San José State vs. UNLV · W 40–7; offense 91.3 percentile2022 Week 7: San José State at Fresno State · L 10–17; offense 19.1 percentile2022 Week 9: San José State vs. Nevada · W 35–28; offense 36.5 percentile2022 Week 11: San José State at San Diego State · L 27–43; offense 75.2 percentile2022 Week 12: San José State at Utah State · L 31–35; offense 55.7 percentile2022 Week 13: San José State vs. Hawai'i · W 27–14; offense 46.5 percentile2022 Week 1: San José State vs. Eastern Michigan · L 27–41; offense 56.8 percentile2023 Week 1: San José State at USC · L 28–56; offense 40.3 percentile2023 Week 1: San José State vs. Oregon State · L 17–42; offense 4.5 percentile2023 Week 2: San José State vs. Cal Poly · W 59–3; offense 71.9 percentile2023 Week 3: San José State at Toledo · L 17–21; offense 26.6 percentile2023 Week 4: San José State vs. Air Force · L 20–45; offense 88.8 percentile2023 Week 6: San José State at Boise State · L 27–35; offense 57.6 percentile2023 Week 7: San José State at New Mexico · W 52–24; offense 80.2 percentile2023 Week 8: San José State vs. Utah State · W 42–21; offense 70.5 percentile2023 Week 9: San José State at Hawai'i · W 35–0; offense 75.6 percentile2023 Week 11: San José State vs. Fresno State · W 42–18; offense 94.4 percentile2023 Week 12: San José State vs. San Diego State · W 24–13; offense 69.0 percentile2023 Week 13: San José State at UNLV · W 37–31; offense 89.5 percentile2023 Week 1: San José State vs. Coastal Carolina · L 14–24; offense 60.0 percentile2024 Week 1: San José State vs. Sacramento State · W 42–24; offense 10.7 percentile2024 Week 2: San José State at Air Force · W 17–7; offense 8.5 percentile2024 Week 3: San José State vs. Kennesaw State · W 31–10; offense 49.3 percentile2024 Week 4: San José State at Washington State · L 52–54; offense 58.1 percentile2024 Week 6: San José State vs. Nevada · W 35–31; offense 64.8 percentile2024 Week 7: San José State at Colorado State · L 24–31; offense 68.6 percentile2024 Week 8: San José State vs. Wyoming · W 24–14; offense 72.7 percentile2024 Week 9: San José State at Fresno State · L 10–33; offense 69.3 percentile2024 Week 11: San José State at Oregon State · W 24–13; offense 50.8 percentile2024 Week 12: San José State vs. Boise State · L 21–42; offense 64.9 percentile2024 Week 13: San José State vs. UNLV · L 16–27; offense 0.6 percentile2024 Week 14: San José State vs. Stanford · W 34–31; offense 63.8 percentile2024 Week 1: San José State vs. South Florida · L 39–41; offense 36.2 percentile2025 Week 1: San José State vs. Central Michigan · L 14–16; offense 19.2 percentile2025 Week 2: San José State at Texas · L 7–38; offense 14.2 percentile2025 Week 4: San José State vs. Idaho · W 31–28; offense 77.4 percentile2025 Week 5: San José State at Stanford · L 29–30; offense 57.4 percentile2025 Week 6: San José State vs. New Mexico · W 35–28; offense 96.1 percentile2025 Week 7: San José State at Wyoming · L 28–35; offense 29.2 percentile2025 Week 10: San José State vs. Hawai'i · W 45–38; offense 90.6 percentile2025 Week 11: San José State vs. Air Force · L 16–26; offense 49.0 percentile2025 Week 12: San José State at Nevada · L 10–55; offense 42.5 percentile2025 Week 13: San José State at San Diego State · L 3–25; offense 35.8 percentile2025 Week 14: San José State vs. Fresno State · L 14–41; offense 16.9 percentile2026 Week 1: San José State at USC · L 26–42; offense 26.4 percentile2026 Week 1: San José State at Eastern Michigan · W 27–21; offense 29.1 percentile2014 offense season mean: 27.6 percentile2015 offense season mean: 54.0 percentile2016 offense season mean: 29.5 percentile2017 offense season mean: 14.9 percentile2018 offense season mean: 15.3 percentile2019 offense season mean: 47.9 percentile2020 offense season mean: 49.7 percentile2021 offense season mean: 27.1 percentile2022 offense season mean: 41.0 percentile2023 offense season mean: 65.2 percentile2024 offense season mean: 42.1 percentile2025 offense season mean: 50.0 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 45.3 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 27.7 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: San José State vs. North Dakota · W 42–10; defense 45.6 percentile2014 Week 2: San José State at Auburn · L 13–59; defense 13.1 percentile2014 Week 4: San José State at Minnesota · L 7–24; defense 45.3 percentile2014 Week 5: San José State vs. Nevada · L 10–21; defense 74.1 percentile2014 Week 6: San José State vs. UNLV · W 33–10; defense 95.7 percentile2014 Week 8: San José State at Wyoming · W 27–20; defense 61.4 percentile2014 Week 9: San José State at Navy · L 31–41; defense 13.5 percentile2014 Week 11: San José State at Fresno State · L 24–38; defense 33.9 percentile2014 Week 12: San José State vs. Hawai'i · L 0–13; defense 74.9 percentile2014 Week 13: San José State at Utah State · L 7–41; defense 10.9 percentile2014 Week 14: San José State at San Diego State · L 7–38; defense 23.3 percentile2015 Week 1: San José State vs. New Hampshire · W 43–13; defense 34.6 percentile2015 Week 2: San José State at Air Force · L 16–37; defense 56.9 percentile2015 Week 3: San José State at Oregon State · L 21–35; defense 11.2 percentile2015 Week 4: San José State vs. Fresno State · W 49–23; defense 42.9 percentile2015 Week 5: San José State at Auburn · L 21–35; defense 24.4 percentile2015 Week 6: San José State at UNLV · W 33–27; defense 20.6 percentile2015 Week 7: San José State vs. San Diego State · L 7–30; defense 22.7 percentile2015 Week 8: San José State vs. New Mexico · W 31–21; defense 30.0 percentile2015 Week 10: San José State vs. BYU · L 16–17; defense 39.3 percentile2015 Week 11: San José State at Nevada · L 34–37; defense 26.0 percentile2015 Week 12: San José State at Hawai'i · W 42–23; defense 12.2 percentile2015 Week 13: San José State vs. Boise State · L 23–40; defense 4.2 percentile2015 Week 1: San José State vs. Georgia State · W 27–16; defense 86.8 percentile2016 Week 1: San José State at Tulsa · L 10–45; defense 32.9 percentile2016 Week 2: San José State vs. Portland State · W 66–35; defense 7.3 percentile2016 Week 3: San José State vs. Utah · L 17–34; defense 43.5 percentile2016 Week 4: San José State at Iowa State · L 10–44; defense 5.0 percentile2016 Week 5: San José State at New Mexico · L 41–48; defense 32.8 percentile2016 Week 6: San José State vs. Hawai'i · L 17–34; defense 43.0 percentile2016 Week 7: San José State vs. Nevada · W 14–10; defense 87.7 percentile2016 Week 8: San José State at San Diego State · L 3–42; defense 7.9 percentile2016 Week 9: San José State vs. UNLV · W 30–24; defense 45.1 percentile2016 Week 10: San José State at Boise State · L 31–45; defense 13.0 percentile2016 Week 12: San José State vs. Air Force · L 38–41; defense 3.8 percentile2016 Week 13: San José State at Fresno State · W 16–14; defense 88.8 percentile2017 Week 1: San José State vs. South Florida · L 22–42; defense 80.0 percentile2017 Week 1: San José State vs. Cal Poly · W 34–13; defense 37.6 percentile2017 Week 2: San José State at Texas · L 0–56; defense 1.8 percentile2017 Week 3: San José State at Utah · L 16–54; defense 22.7 percentile2017 Week 4: San José State vs. Utah State · L 10–61; defense 2.3 percentile2017 Week 5: San José State at UNLV · L 13–41; defense 1.0 percentile2017 Week 6: San José State vs. Fresno State · L 10–27; defense 45.5 percentile2017 Week 7: San José State at Hawai'i · L 26–37; defense 17.0 percentile2017 Week 9: San José State at BYU · L 20–41; defense 9.3 percentile2017 Week 10: San José State vs. San Diego State · L 7–52; defense 0.1 percentile2017 Week 12: San José State at Colorado State · L 14–42; defense 12.7 percentile2017 Week 13: San José State vs. Wyoming · W 20–17; defense 73.7 percentile2018 Week 1: San José State vs. UC Davis · L 38–44; defense 8.8 percentile2018 Week 2: San José State at Washington State · L 0–31; defense 53.0 percentile2018 Week 3: San José State at Oregon · L 22–35; defense 55.5 percentile2018 Week 5: San José State vs. Hawai'i · L 41–44; defense 43.6 percentile2018 Week 6: San José State vs. Colorado State · L 30–42; defense 28.7 percentile2018 Week 7: San José State vs. Army · L 3–52; defense 14.2 percentile2018 Week 8: San José State at San Diego State · L 13–16; defense 55.4 percentile2018 Week 9: San José State vs. UNLV · W 50–37; defense 25.2 percentile2018 Week 10: San José State at Wyoming · L 9–24; defense 16.8 percentile2018 Week 11: San José State at Utah State · L 24–62; defense 8.9 percentile2018 Week 12: San José State vs. Nevada · L 12–21; defense 52.4 percentile2018 Week 13: San José State at Fresno State · L 13–31; defense 38.4 percentile2019 Week 1: San José State vs. Northern Colorado · W 35–18; defense 23.1 percentile2019 Week 2: San José State vs. Tulsa · L 16–34; defense 3.3 percentile2019 Week 4: San José State at Arkansas · W 31–24; defense 37.7 percentile2019 Week 5: San José State at Air Force · L 24–41; defense 17.2 percentile2019 Week 6: San José State vs. New Mexico · W 32–21; defense 39.6 percentile2019 Week 7: San José State at Nevada · L 38–41; defense 37.0 percentile2019 Week 8: San José State vs. San Diego State · L 17–27; defense 26.7 percentile2019 Week 9: San José State at Army · W 34–29; defense 23.8 percentile2019 Week 10: San José State vs. Boise State · L 42–52; defense 10.0 percentile2019 Week 11: San José State at Hawai'i · L 40–42; defense 12.4 percentile2019 Week 13: San José State at UNLV · L 35–38; defense 13.5 percentile2019 Week 14: San José State vs. Fresno State · W 17–16; defense 90.4 percentile2020 Week 8: San José State vs. Air Force · W 17–6; defense 89.9 percentile2020 Week 10: San José State at San Diego State · W 28–17; defense 46.4 percentile2020 Week 11: San José State vs. UNLV · W 34–17; defense 63.2 percentile2020 Week 15: San José State vs. Nevada · W 30–20; defense 49.4 percentile2020 Week 16: San José State vs. Boise State · W 34–20; defense 99.6 percentile2020 Week 1: San José State vs. Ball State · L 13–34; defense 53.1 percentile2021 Week 3: San José State at Hawai'i · W 17–13; defense 83.6 percentile2021 Week 4: San José State at Western Michigan · L 3–23; defense 80.4 percentile2021 Week 5: San José State vs. New Mexico State · W 37–31; defense 20.1 percentile2021 Week 6: San José State at Colorado State · L 14–32; defense 23.1 percentile2021 Week 8: San José State at UNLV · W 27–20; defense 43.1 percentile2021 Week 9: San José State vs. Wyoming · W 27–21; defense 55.6 percentile2021 Week 10: San José State at Nevada · L 24–27; defense 81.9 percentile2021 Week 11: San José State vs. Utah State · L 17–48; defense 38.8 percentile2021 Week 13: San José State vs. Fresno State · L 9–40; defense 14.6 percentile2022 Week 1: San José State vs. Portland State · W 21–17; defense 27.6 percentile2022 Week 2: San José State at Auburn · L 16–24; defense 13.3 percentile2022 Week 5: San José State at Wyoming · W 33–16; defense 64.9 percentile2022 Week 6: San José State vs. UNLV · W 40–7; defense 95.9 percentile2022 Week 7: San José State at Fresno State · L 10–17; defense 96.6 percentile2022 Week 9: San José State vs. Nevada · W 35–28; defense 53.3 percentile2022 Week 11: San José State at San Diego State · L 27–43; defense 2.7 percentile2022 Week 12: San José State at Utah State · L 31–35; defense 19.7 percentile2022 Week 13: San José State vs. Hawai'i · W 27–14; defense 89.4 percentile2022 Week 1: San José State vs. Eastern Michigan · L 27–41; defense 25.1 percentile2023 Week 1: San José State at USC · L 28–56; defense 53.1 percentile2023 Week 1: San José State vs. Oregon State · L 17–42; defense 2.9 percentile2023 Week 2: San José State vs. Cal Poly · W 59–3; defense 77.0 percentile2023 Week 3: San José State at Toledo · L 17–21; defense 55.2 percentile2023 Week 4: San José State vs. Air Force · L 20–45; defense 8.4 percentile2023 Week 6: San José State at Boise State · L 27–35; defense 24.5 percentile2023 Week 7: San José State at New Mexico · W 52–24; defense 74.0 percentile2023 Week 8: San José State vs. Utah State · W 42–21; defense 84.6 percentile2023 Week 9: San José State at Hawai'i · W 35–0; defense 84.5 percentile2023 Week 11: San José State vs. Fresno State · W 42–18; defense 47.8 percentile2023 Week 12: San José State vs. San Diego State · W 24–13; defense 51.9 percentile2023 Week 13: San José State at UNLV · W 37–31; defense 36.6 percentile2023 Week 1: San José State vs. Coastal Carolina · L 14–24; defense 48.1 percentile2024 Week 1: San José State vs. Sacramento State · W 42–24; defense 32.5 percentile2024 Week 2: San José State at Air Force · W 17–7; defense 99.1 percentile2024 Week 3: San José State vs. Kennesaw State · W 31–10; defense 84.2 percentile2024 Week 4: San José State at Washington State · L 52–54; defense 23.1 percentile2024 Week 6: San José State vs. Nevada · W 35–31; defense 8.6 percentile2024 Week 7: San José State at Colorado State · L 24–31; defense 5.4 percentile2024 Week 8: San José State vs. Wyoming · W 24–14; defense 90.8 percentile2024 Week 9: San José State at Fresno State · L 10–33; defense 19.6 percentile2024 Week 11: San José State at Oregon State · W 24–13; defense 63.7 percentile2024 Week 12: San José State vs. Boise State · L 21–42; defense 29.3 percentile2024 Week 13: San José State vs. UNLV · L 16–27; defense 78.0 percentile2024 Week 14: San José State vs. Stanford · W 34–31; defense 33.6 percentile2024 Week 1: San José State vs. South Florida · L 39–41; defense 82.8 percentile2025 Week 1: San José State vs. Central Michigan · L 14–16; defense 59.1 percentile2025 Week 2: San José State at Texas · L 7–38; defense 35.5 percentile2025 Week 4: San José State vs. Idaho · W 31–28; defense 5.0 percentile2025 Week 5: San José State at Stanford · L 29–30; defense 41.6 percentile2025 Week 6: San José State vs. New Mexico · W 35–28; defense 24.7 percentile2025 Week 7: San José State at Wyoming · L 28–35; defense 37.9 percentile2025 Week 10: San José State vs. Hawai'i · W 45–38; defense 13.6 percentile2025 Week 11: San José State vs. Air Force · L 16–26; defense 76.6 percentile2025 Week 12: San José State at Nevada · L 10–55; defense 2.8 percentile2025 Week 13: San José State at San Diego State · L 3–25; defense 61.7 percentile2025 Week 14: San José State vs. Fresno State · L 14–41; defense 33.7 percentile2026 Week 1: San José State at USC · L 26–42; defense 22.3 percentile2026 Week 1: San José State at Eastern Michigan · W 27–21; defense 95.0 percentile2014 defense season mean: 44.6 percentile2015 defense season mean: 29.3 percentile2016 defense season mean: 29.7 percentile2017 defense season mean: 14.8 percentile2018 defense season mean: 30.8 percentile2019 defense season mean: 25.3 percentile2020 defense season mean: 76.1 percentile2021 defense season mean: 49.1 percentile2022 defense season mean: 50.5 percentile2023 defense season mean: 47.8 percentile2024 defense season mean: 52.4 percentile2025 defense season mean: 31.2 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 38.0 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 67.0 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2017Brent Brennan
2024Ken Niumatalolo

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateKen Niumatalolo2
45.3 estimate27.7 games-only average
38.0 estimate67.0 games-only average
2025Ken Niumatalolo1150.031.2
2024Ken NiumataloloCoaching change1342.152.4
2023Brent Brennan1365.247.8
2022Brent Brennan1041.050.5
2021Brent Brennan927.149.1
2020Brent Brennan649.776.1
2019Brent Brennan1247.925.3
2018Brent Brennan1215.330.8
2017Brent BrennanCoaching change1214.914.8
2016Ron Caragher1229.529.7
2015Ron Caragher1354.029.3
2014Ron Caragher1127.644.6