2014–2026 performance history

Virginia over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

ACCHead coach: Tony ElliottView Virginia games →
Offense · 2026 estimate57.4/100

64.9 average through 2 games

55.4 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate69.1/100

73.0 average through 2 games

68.0 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

Virginia individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.London · ’14–’15Mike London, 2014–2015Mendenhall · ’16–’21Bronco Mendenhall, 2016–2021Elliott · ’22–’26Tony Elliott, 2022–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Virginia vs. UCLA · L 20–28; offense 29.9 percentile2014 Week 2: Virginia vs. Richmond · W 45–13; offense 43.9 percentile2014 Week 3: Virginia vs. Louisville · W 23–21; offense 34.9 percentile2014 Week 4: Virginia at BYU · L 33–41; offense 56.3 percentile2014 Week 5: Virginia vs. Kent State · W 45–13; offense 82.8 percentile2014 Week 6: Virginia vs. Pittsburgh · W 24–19; offense 45.4 percentile2014 Week 8: Virginia at Duke · L 13–20; offense 48.4 percentile2014 Week 9: Virginia vs. North Carolina · L 27–28; offense 21.1 percentile2014 Week 10: Virginia at Georgia Tech · L 10–35; offense 5.8 percentile2014 Week 11: Virginia at Florida State · L 20–34; offense 15.5 percentile2014 Week 13: Virginia vs. Miami · W 30–13; offense 50.4 percentile2014 Week 14: Virginia at Virginia Tech · L 20–24; offense 8.4 percentile2015 Week 1: Virginia at UCLA · L 16–34; offense 32.8 percentile2015 Week 2: Virginia vs. Notre Dame · L 27–34; offense 62.3 percentile2015 Week 3: Virginia vs. William & Mary · W 35–29; offense 27.1 percentile2015 Week 4: Virginia vs. Boise State · L 14–56; offense 24.4 percentile2015 Week 6: Virginia at Pittsburgh · L 19–26; offense 35.1 percentile2015 Week 7: Virginia vs. Syracuse · W 44–38; offense 28.1 percentile2015 Week 8: Virginia at North Carolina · L 13–26; offense 41.8 percentile2015 Week 9: Virginia vs. Georgia Tech · W 27–21; offense 61.5 percentile2015 Week 10: Virginia at Miami · L 21–27; offense 24.1 percentile2015 Week 11: Virginia at Louisville · L 31–38; offense 51.8 percentile2015 Week 12: Virginia vs. Duke · W 42–34; offense 87.3 percentile2015 Week 13: Virginia vs. Virginia Tech · L 20–23; offense 49.7 percentile2016 Week 1: Virginia vs. Richmond · L 20–37; offense 2.8 percentile2016 Week 2: Virginia at Oregon · L 26–44; offense 36.6 percentile2016 Week 3: Virginia at UConn · L 10–13; offense 22.3 percentile2016 Week 4: Virginia vs. Central Michigan · W 49–35; offense 87.3 percentile2016 Week 5: Virginia at Duke · W 34–20; offense 22.7 percentile2016 Week 7: Virginia vs. Pittsburgh · L 31–45; offense 48.3 percentile2016 Week 8: Virginia vs. North Carolina · L 14–35; offense 2.1 percentile2016 Week 9: Virginia vs. Louisville · L 25–32; offense 51.8 percentile2016 Week 10: Virginia at Wake Forest · L 20–27; offense 33.4 percentile2016 Week 11: Virginia vs. Miami · L 14–34; offense 23.6 percentile2016 Week 12: Virginia at Georgia Tech · L 17–31; offense 42.5 percentile2016 Week 13: Virginia at Virginia Tech · L 10–52; offense 11.3 percentile2017 Week 1: Virginia vs. William & Mary · W 28–10; offense 6.3 percentile2017 Week 2: Virginia vs. Indiana · L 17–34; offense 14.4 percentile2017 Week 3: Virginia vs. UConn · W 38–18; offense 96.9 percentile2017 Week 4: Virginia at Boise State · W 42–23; offense 86.6 percentile2017 Week 6: Virginia vs. Duke · W 28–21; offense 25.2 percentile2017 Week 7: Virginia at North Carolina · W 20–14; offense 31.3 percentile2017 Week 8: Virginia vs. Boston College · L 10–41; offense 43.3 percentile2017 Week 9: Virginia at Pittsburgh · L 14–31; offense 29.3 percentile2017 Week 10: Virginia vs. Georgia Tech · W 40–36; offense 26.9 percentile2017 Week 11: Virginia at Louisville · L 21–38; offense 36.0 percentile2017 Week 12: Virginia at Miami · L 28–44; offense 61.0 percentile2017 Week 13: Virginia vs. Virginia Tech · L 0–10; offense 2.4 percentile2017 Week 1: Virginia at Navy · L 7–49; offense 0.4 percentile2018 Week 1: Virginia vs. Richmond · W 42–13; offense 72.6 percentile2018 Week 2: Virginia at Indiana · L 16–20; offense 14.9 percentile2018 Week 3: Virginia vs. Ohio · W 45–31; offense 94.3 percentile2018 Week 4: Virginia vs. Louisville · W 27–3; offense 29.3 percentile2018 Week 5: Virginia at NC State · L 21–35; offense 45.6 percentile2018 Week 7: Virginia vs. Miami · W 16–13; offense 41.0 percentile2018 Week 8: Virginia at Duke · W 28–14; offense 36.1 percentile2018 Week 9: Virginia vs. North Carolina · W 31–21; offense 62.6 percentile2018 Week 10: Virginia vs. Pittsburgh · L 13–23; offense 19.7 percentile2018 Week 11: Virginia vs. Liberty · W 45–24; offense 96.3 percentile2018 Week 12: Virginia at Georgia Tech · L 27–30; offense 82.8 percentile2018 Week 13: Virginia at Virginia Tech · L 31–34; offense 47.9 percentile2018 Week 1: Virginia vs. South Carolina · W 28–0; offense 68.0 percentile2019 Week 1: Virginia at Pittsburgh · W 30–14; offense 78.0 percentile2019 Week 2: Virginia vs. William & Mary · W 52–17; offense 75.8 percentile2019 Week 3: Virginia vs. Florida State · W 31–24; offense 71.2 percentile2019 Week 4: Virginia vs. Old Dominion · W 28–17; offense 15.1 percentile2019 Week 5: Virginia at Notre Dame · L 20–35; offense 50.2 percentile2019 Week 7: Virginia at Miami · L 9–17; offense 43.0 percentile2019 Week 8: Virginia vs. Duke · W 48–14; offense 64.5 percentile2019 Week 9: Virginia at Louisville · L 21–28; offense 17.1 percentile2019 Week 10: Virginia at North Carolina · W 38–31; offense 91.4 percentile2019 Week 11: Virginia vs. Georgia Tech · W 33–28; offense 58.0 percentile2019 Week 13: Virginia vs. Liberty · W 55–27; offense 89.4 percentile2019 Week 14: Virginia vs. Virginia Tech · W 39–30; offense 74.5 percentile2019 Week 15: Virginia vs. Clemson · L 17–62; offense 87.0 percentile2019 Week 1: Virginia vs. Florida · L 28–36; offense 75.2 percentile2020 Week 4: Virginia vs. Duke · W 38–20; offense 40.0 percentile2020 Week 5: Virginia at Clemson · L 23–41; offense 73.8 percentile2020 Week 6: Virginia vs. NC State · L 21–38; offense 24.9 percentile2020 Week 7: Virginia at Wake Forest · L 23–40; offense 42.0 percentile2020 Week 8: Virginia at Miami · L 14–19; offense 58.7 percentile2020 Week 9: Virginia vs. North Carolina · W 44–41; offense 74.5 percentile2020 Week 11: Virginia vs. Louisville · W 31–17; offense 54.3 percentile2020 Week 12: Virginia vs. Abilene Christian · W 55–15; offense 68.6 percentile2020 Week 14: Virginia vs. Boston College · W 43–32; offense 85.3 percentile2020 Week 15: Virginia at Virginia Tech · L 15–33; offense 33.3 percentile2021 Week 1: Virginia vs. William & Mary · W 43–0; offense 51.9 percentile2021 Week 2: Virginia vs. Illinois · W 42–14; offense 94.9 percentile2021 Week 3: Virginia at North Carolina · L 39–59; offense 78.1 percentile2021 Week 4: Virginia vs. Wake Forest · L 17–37; offense 40.4 percentile2021 Week 5: Virginia at Miami · W 30–28; offense 51.1 percentile2021 Week 6: Virginia at Louisville · W 34–33; offense 55.9 percentile2021 Week 7: Virginia vs. Duke · W 48–0; offense 61.8 percentile2021 Week 8: Virginia vs. Georgia Tech · W 48–40; offense 97.4 percentile2021 Week 9: Virginia at BYU · L 49–66; offense 96.9 percentile2021 Week 11: Virginia vs. Notre Dame · L 3–28; offense 27.5 percentile2021 Week 12: Virginia at Pittsburgh · L 38–48; offense 73.8 percentile2021 Week 13: Virginia vs. Virginia Tech · L 24–29; offense 74.7 percentile2022 Week 1: Virginia vs. Richmond · W 34–17; offense 46.4 percentile2022 Week 2: Virginia at Illinois · L 3–24; offense 32.3 percentile2022 Week 3: Virginia vs. Old Dominion · W 16–14; offense 52.8 percentile2022 Week 4: Virginia at Syracuse · L 20–22; offense 45.1 percentile2022 Week 5: Virginia at Duke · L 17–38; offense 39.1 percentile2022 Week 6: Virginia vs. Louisville · L 17–34; offense 26.2 percentile2022 Week 8: Virginia at Georgia Tech · W 16–9; offense 15.4 percentile2022 Week 9: Virginia vs. Miami · L 12–14; offense 41.6 percentile2022 Week 10: Virginia vs. North Carolina · L 28–31; offense 68.0 percentile2022 Week 11: Virginia vs. Pittsburgh · L 7–37; offense 14.5 percentile2023 Week 1: Virginia vs. Tennessee · L 13–49; offense 4.1 percentile2023 Week 2: Virginia vs. James Madison · L 35–36; offense 81.8 percentile2023 Week 3: Virginia at Maryland · L 14–42; offense 53.5 percentile2023 Week 4: Virginia vs. NC State · L 21–24; offense 32.1 percentile2023 Week 5: Virginia at Boston College · L 24–27; offense 16.8 percentile2023 Week 6: Virginia vs. William & Mary · W 27–13; offense 34.7 percentile2023 Week 8: Virginia at North Carolina · W 31–27; offense 62.1 percentile2023 Week 9: Virginia at Miami · L 26–29; offense 52.7 percentile2023 Week 10: Virginia vs. Georgia Tech · L 17–45; offense 17.6 percentile2023 Week 11: Virginia at Louisville · L 24–31; offense 48.3 percentile2023 Week 12: Virginia vs. Duke · W 30–27; offense 91.3 percentile2023 Week 13: Virginia vs. Virginia Tech · L 17–55; offense 33.0 percentile2024 Week 1: Virginia vs. Richmond · W 34–13; offense 44.3 percentile2024 Week 2: Virginia at Wake Forest · W 31–30; offense 30.0 percentile2024 Week 3: Virginia vs. Maryland · L 13–27; offense 42.0 percentile2024 Week 4: Virginia at Coastal Carolina · W 43–24; offense 88.3 percentile2024 Week 6: Virginia vs. Boston College · W 24–14; offense 48.1 percentile2024 Week 7: Virginia vs. Louisville · L 20–24; offense 59.3 percentile2024 Week 8: Virginia at Clemson · L 31–48; offense 62.6 percentile2024 Week 9: Virginia vs. North Carolina · L 14–41; offense 35.0 percentile2024 Week 11: Virginia at Pittsburgh · W 24–19; offense 54.7 percentile2024 Week 12: Virginia at Notre Dame · L 14–35; offense 35.5 percentile2024 Week 13: Virginia vs. SMU · L 7–33; offense 14.2 percentile2024 Week 14: Virginia at Virginia Tech · L 17–37; offense 53.6 percentile2025 Week 1: Virginia vs. Coastal Carolina · W 48–7; offense 72.2 percentile2025 Week 2: Virginia at NC State · L 31–35; offense 74.2 percentile2025 Week 3: Virginia vs. William & Mary · W 55–16; offense 71.4 percentile2025 Week 4: Virginia vs. Stanford · W 48–20; offense 95.3 percentile2025 Week 5: Virginia vs. Florida State · W 46–38; offense 86.6 percentile2025 Week 6: Virginia at Louisville · W 30–27; offense 15.4 percentile2025 Week 8: Virginia vs. Washington State · W 22–20; offense 35.0 percentile2025 Week 9: Virginia at North Carolina · W 17–16; offense 19.6 percentile2025 Week 10: Virginia at California · W 31–21; offense 47.5 percentile2025 Week 11: Virginia vs. Wake Forest · L 9–16; offense 22.3 percentile2025 Week 12: Virginia at Duke · W 34–17; offense 91.8 percentile2025 Week 14: Virginia vs. Virginia Tech · W 27–7; offense 36.6 percentile2025 Week 15: Virginia vs. Duke · L 20–27; offense 43.9 percentile2025 Week 1: Virginia vs. Missouri · W 13–7; offense 31.6 percentile2026 Week 1: Virginia vs. NC State · W 34–8; offense 59.5 percentile2026 Week 2: Virginia vs. Norfolk State · W 59–3; offense 70.0 percentile2014 offense season mean: 34.2 percentile2015 offense season mean: 43.9 percentile2016 offense season mean: 27.5 percentile2017 offense season mean: 30.0 percentile2018 offense season mean: 57.7 percentile2019 offense season mean: 65.4 percentile2020 offense season mean: 56.3 percentile2021 offense season mean: 72.6 percentile2022 offense season mean: 36.9 percentile2023 offense season mean: 42.6 percentile2024 offense season mean: 47.4 percentile2025 offense season mean: 55.4 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 57.4 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 64.9 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Virginia vs. UCLA · L 20–28; defense 94.4 percentile2014 Week 2: Virginia vs. Richmond · W 45–13; defense 44.5 percentile2014 Week 3: Virginia vs. Louisville · W 23–21; defense 76.4 percentile2014 Week 4: Virginia at BYU · L 33–41; defense 41.0 percentile2014 Week 5: Virginia vs. Kent State · W 45–13; defense 59.5 percentile2014 Week 6: Virginia vs. Pittsburgh · W 24–19; defense 84.0 percentile2014 Week 8: Virginia at Duke · L 13–20; defense 64.4 percentile2014 Week 9: Virginia vs. North Carolina · L 27–28; defense 61.2 percentile2014 Week 10: Virginia at Georgia Tech · L 10–35; defense 74.4 percentile2014 Week 11: Virginia at Florida State · L 20–34; defense 64.8 percentile2014 Week 13: Virginia vs. Miami · W 30–13; defense 85.8 percentile2014 Week 14: Virginia at Virginia Tech · L 20–24; defense 31.9 percentile2015 Week 1: Virginia at UCLA · L 16–34; defense 36.3 percentile2015 Week 2: Virginia vs. Notre Dame · L 27–34; defense 42.1 percentile2015 Week 3: Virginia vs. William & Mary · W 35–29; defense 11.0 percentile2015 Week 4: Virginia vs. Boise State · L 14–56; defense 48.7 percentile2015 Week 6: Virginia at Pittsburgh · L 19–26; defense 58.8 percentile2015 Week 7: Virginia vs. Syracuse · W 44–38; defense 46.9 percentile2015 Week 8: Virginia at North Carolina · L 13–26; defense 59.1 percentile2015 Week 9: Virginia vs. Georgia Tech · W 27–21; defense 58.7 percentile2015 Week 10: Virginia at Miami · L 21–27; defense 14.2 percentile2015 Week 11: Virginia at Louisville · L 31–38; defense 6.5 percentile2015 Week 12: Virginia vs. Duke · W 42–34; defense 37.2 percentile2015 Week 13: Virginia vs. Virginia Tech · L 20–23; defense 59.0 percentile2016 Week 1: Virginia vs. Richmond · L 20–37; defense 3.0 percentile2016 Week 2: Virginia at Oregon · L 26–44; defense 9.1 percentile2016 Week 3: Virginia at UConn · L 10–13; defense 76.4 percentile2016 Week 4: Virginia vs. Central Michigan · W 49–35; defense 52.6 percentile2016 Week 5: Virginia at Duke · W 34–20; defense 50.9 percentile2016 Week 7: Virginia vs. Pittsburgh · L 31–45; defense 64.0 percentile2016 Week 8: Virginia vs. North Carolina · L 14–35; defense 14.6 percentile2016 Week 9: Virginia vs. Louisville · L 25–32; defense 70.0 percentile2016 Week 10: Virginia at Wake Forest · L 20–27; defense 40.1 percentile2016 Week 11: Virginia vs. Miami · L 14–34; defense 20.7 percentile2016 Week 12: Virginia at Georgia Tech · L 17–31; defense 65.5 percentile2016 Week 13: Virginia at Virginia Tech · L 10–52; defense 4.3 percentile2017 Week 1: Virginia vs. William & Mary · W 28–10; defense 19.1 percentile2017 Week 2: Virginia vs. Indiana · L 17–34; defense 45.7 percentile2017 Week 3: Virginia vs. UConn · W 38–18; defense 43.3 percentile2017 Week 4: Virginia at Boise State · W 42–23; defense 96.2 percentile2017 Week 6: Virginia vs. Duke · W 28–21; defense 67.5 percentile2017 Week 7: Virginia at North Carolina · W 20–14; defense 44.0 percentile2017 Week 8: Virginia vs. Boston College · L 10–41; defense 5.9 percentile2017 Week 9: Virginia at Pittsburgh · L 14–31; defense 44.6 percentile2017 Week 10: Virginia vs. Georgia Tech · W 40–36; defense 63.2 percentile2017 Week 11: Virginia at Louisville · L 21–38; defense 33.3 percentile2017 Week 12: Virginia at Miami · L 28–44; defense 23.5 percentile2017 Week 13: Virginia vs. Virginia Tech · L 0–10; defense 75.3 percentile2017 Week 1: Virginia at Navy · L 7–49; defense 25.6 percentile2018 Week 1: Virginia vs. Richmond · W 42–13; defense 77.5 percentile2018 Week 2: Virginia at Indiana · L 16–20; defense 48.3 percentile2018 Week 3: Virginia vs. Ohio · W 45–31; defense 94.1 percentile2018 Week 4: Virginia vs. Louisville · W 27–3; defense 90.3 percentile2018 Week 5: Virginia at NC State · L 21–35; defense 33.4 percentile2018 Week 7: Virginia vs. Miami · W 16–13; defense 55.1 percentile2018 Week 8: Virginia at Duke · W 28–14; defense 76.6 percentile2018 Week 9: Virginia vs. North Carolina · W 31–21; defense 53.8 percentile2018 Week 10: Virginia vs. Pittsburgh · L 13–23; defense 28.4 percentile2018 Week 11: Virginia vs. Liberty · W 45–24; defense 20.5 percentile2018 Week 12: Virginia at Georgia Tech · L 27–30; defense 61.2 percentile2018 Week 13: Virginia at Virginia Tech · L 31–34; defense 47.5 percentile2018 Week 1: Virginia vs. South Carolina · W 28–0; defense 92.0 percentile2019 Week 1: Virginia at Pittsburgh · W 30–14; defense 70.4 percentile2019 Week 2: Virginia vs. William & Mary · W 52–17; defense 61.3 percentile2019 Week 3: Virginia vs. Florida State · W 31–24; defense 61.6 percentile2019 Week 4: Virginia vs. Old Dominion · W 28–17; defense 64.5 percentile2019 Week 5: Virginia at Notre Dame · L 20–35; defense 50.5 percentile2019 Week 7: Virginia at Miami · L 9–17; defense 63.9 percentile2019 Week 8: Virginia vs. Duke · W 48–14; defense 83.3 percentile2019 Week 9: Virginia at Louisville · L 21–28; defense 55.3 percentile2019 Week 10: Virginia at North Carolina · W 38–31; defense 14.3 percentile2019 Week 11: Virginia vs. Georgia Tech · W 33–28; defense 7.0 percentile2019 Week 13: Virginia vs. Liberty · W 55–27; defense 48.9 percentile2019 Week 14: Virginia vs. Virginia Tech · W 39–30; defense 35.2 percentile2019 Week 15: Virginia vs. Clemson · L 17–62; defense 5.2 percentile2019 Week 1: Virginia vs. Florida · L 28–36; defense 12.8 percentile2020 Week 4: Virginia vs. Duke · W 38–20; defense 88.3 percentile2020 Week 5: Virginia at Clemson · L 23–41; defense 35.5 percentile2020 Week 6: Virginia vs. NC State · L 21–38; defense 72.6 percentile2020 Week 7: Virginia at Wake Forest · L 23–40; defense 42.0 percentile2020 Week 8: Virginia at Miami · L 14–19; defense 70.8 percentile2020 Week 9: Virginia vs. North Carolina · W 44–41; defense 21.8 percentile2020 Week 11: Virginia vs. Louisville · W 31–17; defense 33.7 percentile2020 Week 12: Virginia vs. Abilene Christian · W 55–15; defense 40.1 percentile2020 Week 14: Virginia vs. Boston College · W 43–32; defense 39.0 percentile2020 Week 15: Virginia at Virginia Tech · L 15–33; defense 29.9 percentile2021 Week 1: Virginia vs. William & Mary · W 43–0; defense 32.0 percentile2021 Week 2: Virginia vs. Illinois · W 42–14; defense 50.9 percentile2021 Week 3: Virginia at North Carolina · L 39–59; defense 0.3 percentile2021 Week 4: Virginia vs. Wake Forest · L 17–37; defense 34.6 percentile2021 Week 5: Virginia at Miami · W 30–28; defense 68.3 percentile2021 Week 6: Virginia at Louisville · W 34–33; defense 59.8 percentile2021 Week 7: Virginia vs. Duke · W 48–0; defense 91.8 percentile2021 Week 8: Virginia vs. Georgia Tech · W 48–40; defense 1.4 percentile2021 Week 9: Virginia at BYU · L 49–66; defense 2.0 percentile2021 Week 11: Virginia vs. Notre Dame · L 3–28; defense 15.4 percentile2021 Week 12: Virginia at Pittsburgh · L 38–48; defense 13.0 percentile2021 Week 13: Virginia vs. Virginia Tech · L 24–29; defense 11.3 percentile2022 Week 1: Virginia vs. Richmond · W 34–17; defense 19.6 percentile2022 Week 2: Virginia at Illinois · L 3–24; defense 49.8 percentile2022 Week 3: Virginia vs. Old Dominion · W 16–14; defense 54.1 percentile2022 Week 4: Virginia at Syracuse · L 20–22; defense 74.7 percentile2022 Week 5: Virginia at Duke · L 17–38; defense 28.6 percentile2022 Week 6: Virginia vs. Louisville · L 17–34; defense 26.5 percentile2022 Week 8: Virginia at Georgia Tech · W 16–9; defense 89.6 percentile2022 Week 9: Virginia vs. Miami · L 12–14; defense 62.0 percentile2022 Week 10: Virginia vs. North Carolina · L 28–31; defense 20.3 percentile2022 Week 11: Virginia vs. Pittsburgh · L 7–37; defense 34.4 percentile2023 Week 1: Virginia vs. Tennessee · L 13–49; defense 22.4 percentile2023 Week 2: Virginia vs. James Madison · L 35–36; defense 23.2 percentile2023 Week 3: Virginia at Maryland · L 14–42; defense 19.9 percentile2023 Week 4: Virginia vs. NC State · L 21–24; defense 43.8 percentile2023 Week 5: Virginia at Boston College · L 24–27; defense 66.8 percentile2023 Week 6: Virginia vs. William & Mary · W 27–13; defense 30.4 percentile2023 Week 8: Virginia at North Carolina · W 31–27; defense 51.2 percentile2023 Week 9: Virginia at Miami · L 26–29; defense 91.8 percentile2023 Week 10: Virginia vs. Georgia Tech · L 17–45; defense 3.7 percentile2023 Week 11: Virginia at Louisville · L 24–31; defense 64.2 percentile2023 Week 12: Virginia vs. Duke · W 30–27; defense 24.6 percentile2023 Week 13: Virginia vs. Virginia Tech · L 17–55; defense 0.7 percentile2024 Week 1: Virginia vs. Richmond · W 34–13; defense 22.2 percentile2024 Week 2: Virginia at Wake Forest · W 31–30; defense 29.3 percentile2024 Week 3: Virginia vs. Maryland · L 13–27; defense 25.1 percentile2024 Week 4: Virginia at Coastal Carolina · W 43–24; defense 73.6 percentile2024 Week 6: Virginia vs. Boston College · W 24–14; defense 40.8 percentile2024 Week 7: Virginia vs. Louisville · L 20–24; defense 38.3 percentile2024 Week 8: Virginia at Clemson · L 31–48; defense 2.5 percentile2024 Week 9: Virginia vs. North Carolina · L 14–41; defense 12.1 percentile2024 Week 11: Virginia at Pittsburgh · W 24–19; defense 72.9 percentile2024 Week 12: Virginia at Notre Dame · L 14–35; defense 63.1 percentile2024 Week 13: Virginia vs. SMU · L 7–33; defense 34.4 percentile2024 Week 14: Virginia at Virginia Tech · L 17–37; defense 6.9 percentile2025 Week 1: Virginia vs. Coastal Carolina · W 48–7; defense 88.6 percentile2025 Week 2: Virginia at NC State · L 31–35; defense 16.7 percentile2025 Week 3: Virginia vs. William & Mary · W 55–16; defense 31.2 percentile2025 Week 4: Virginia vs. Stanford · W 48–20; defense 43.1 percentile2025 Week 5: Virginia vs. Florida State · W 46–38; defense 21.4 percentile2025 Week 6: Virginia at Louisville · W 30–27; defense 38.9 percentile2025 Week 8: Virginia vs. Washington State · W 22–20; defense 68.1 percentile2025 Week 9: Virginia at North Carolina · W 17–16; defense 69.7 percentile2025 Week 10: Virginia at California · W 31–21; defense 70.4 percentile2025 Week 11: Virginia vs. Wake Forest · L 9–16; defense 94.7 percentile2025 Week 12: Virginia at Duke · W 34–17; defense 88.2 percentile2025 Week 14: Virginia vs. Virginia Tech · W 27–7; defense 93.7 percentile2025 Week 15: Virginia vs. Duke · L 20–27; defense 69.2 percentile2025 Week 1: Virginia vs. Missouri · W 13–7; defense 95.6 percentile2026 Week 1: Virginia vs. NC State · W 34–8; defense 82.3 percentile2026 Week 2: Virginia vs. Norfolk State · W 59–3; defense 61.8 percentile2014 defense season mean: 67.6 percentile2015 defense season mean: 37.3 percentile2016 defense season mean: 33.9 percentile2017 defense season mean: 45.2 percentile2018 defense season mean: 63.0 percentile2019 defense season mean: 42.2 percentile2020 defense season mean: 48.0 percentile2021 defense season mean: 22.6 percentile2022 defense season mean: 46.2 percentile2023 defense season mean: 31.7 percentile2024 defense season mean: 31.0 percentile2025 defense season mean: 68.0 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 69.1 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 73.0 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2016Bronco Mendenhall
2022Tony Elliott

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateTony Elliott2
57.4 estimate64.9 games-only average
69.1 estimate73.0 games-only average
2025Tony Elliott1455.468.0
2024Tony Elliott1247.431.0
2023Tony Elliott1242.631.7
2022Tony ElliottCoaching change1036.946.2
2021Bronco Mendenhall1272.622.6
2020Bronco Mendenhall1056.348.0
2019Bronco Mendenhall1465.442.2
2018Bronco Mendenhall1357.763.0
2017Bronco Mendenhall1330.045.2
2016Bronco MendenhallCoaching change1227.533.9
2015Mike London1243.937.3
2014Mike London1234.267.6