2014–2026 performance history

Baylor over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

Big 12Head coach: Dave ArandaView Baylor games →
Offense · 2026 estimate54.2/100

42.3 average through 1 game

55.7 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate37.7/100

67.7 average through 1 game

34.1 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

Baylor individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.Briles · ’14–’15Art Briles, 2014–2015GrobeJim Grobe, 2016Rhule · ’17–’19Matt Rhule, 2017–2019Aranda · ’20–’26Dave Aranda, 2020–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Baylor vs. SMU · W 45–0; offense 48.8 percentile2014 Week 2: Baylor vs. Northwestern State · W 70–6; offense 92.6 percentile2014 Week 3: Baylor at Buffalo · W 63–21; offense 87.0 percentile2014 Week 5: Baylor at Iowa State · W 49–28; offense 65.3 percentile2014 Week 6: Baylor at Texas · W 28–7; offense 69.5 percentile2014 Week 7: Baylor vs. TCU · W 61–58; offense 95.8 percentile2014 Week 8: Baylor at West Virginia · L 27–41; offense 21.2 percentile2014 Week 10: Baylor vs. Kansas · W 60–14; offense 93.9 percentile2014 Week 11: Baylor at Oklahoma · W 48–14; offense 91.3 percentile2014 Week 13: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State · W 49–28; offense 86.8 percentile2014 Week 14: Baylor vs. Texas Tech · W 48–46; offense 39.8 percentile2014 Week 15: Baylor vs. Kansas State · W 38–27; offense 98.7 percentile2014 Week 1: Baylor vs. Michigan State · L 41–42; offense 71.0 percentile2015 Week 1: Baylor at SMU · W 56–21; offense 97.3 percentile2015 Week 2: Baylor vs. Lamar · W 66–31; offense 75.0 percentile2015 Week 4: Baylor vs. Rice · W 70–17; offense 99.9 percentile2015 Week 5: Baylor vs. Texas Tech · W 63–35; offense 94.4 percentile2015 Week 6: Baylor at Kansas · W 66–7; offense 97.2 percentile2015 Week 7: Baylor vs. West Virginia · W 62–38; offense 97.0 percentile2015 Week 8: Baylor vs. Iowa State · W 45–27; offense 46.9 percentile2015 Week 10: Baylor at Kansas State · W 31–24; offense 79.5 percentile2015 Week 11: Baylor vs. Oklahoma · L 34–44; offense 76.1 percentile2015 Week 12: Baylor at Oklahoma State · W 45–35; offense 90.4 percentile2015 Week 13: Baylor at TCU · L 21–28; offense 13.5 percentile2015 Week 14: Baylor vs. Texas · L 17–23; offense 38.5 percentile2015 Week 1: Baylor vs. North Carolina · W 49–38; offense 99.1 percentile2016 Week 1: Baylor vs. Northwestern State · W 55–7; offense 68.6 percentile2016 Week 2: Baylor vs. SMU · W 40–13; offense 34.5 percentile2016 Week 3: Baylor at Rice · W 38–10; offense 64.7 percentile2016 Week 4: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State · W 35–24; offense 66.4 percentile2016 Week 5: Baylor at Iowa State · W 45–42; offense 98.7 percentile2016 Week 7: Baylor vs. Kansas · W 49–7; offense 77.6 percentile2016 Week 9: Baylor at Texas · L 34–35; offense 81.7 percentile2016 Week 10: Baylor vs. TCU · L 22–62; offense 23.9 percentile2016 Week 11: Baylor at Oklahoma · L 24–45; offense 61.8 percentile2016 Week 12: Baylor vs. Kansas State · L 21–42; offense 26.3 percentile2016 Week 13: Baylor vs. Texas Tech · L 35–54; offense 16.2 percentile2016 Week 14: Baylor at West Virginia · L 21–24; offense 57.2 percentile2016 Week 1: Baylor vs. Boise State · W 31–12; offense 84.1 percentile2017 Week 1: Baylor vs. Liberty · L 45–48; offense 66.3 percentile2017 Week 2: Baylor vs. UTSA · L 10–17; offense 12.5 percentile2017 Week 3: Baylor at Duke · L 20–34; offense 24.4 percentile2017 Week 4: Baylor vs. Oklahoma · L 41–49; offense 56.9 percentile2017 Week 5: Baylor at Kansas State · L 20–33; offense 36.4 percentile2017 Week 7: Baylor at Oklahoma State · L 16–59; offense 37.6 percentile2017 Week 8: Baylor vs. West Virginia · L 36–38; offense 47.6 percentile2017 Week 9: Baylor vs. Texas · L 7–38; offense 3.1 percentile2017 Week 10: Baylor at Kansas · W 38–9; offense 41.4 percentile2017 Week 11: Baylor vs. Texas Tech · L 24–38; offense 38.4 percentile2017 Week 12: Baylor vs. Iowa State · L 13–23; offense 25.7 percentile2017 Week 13: Baylor at TCU · L 22–45; offense 41.8 percentile2018 Week 1: Baylor vs. Abilene Christian · W 55–27; offense 68.3 percentile2018 Week 2: Baylor at UTSA · W 37–20; offense 58.4 percentile2018 Week 3: Baylor vs. Duke · L 27–40; offense 51.1 percentile2018 Week 4: Baylor vs. Kansas · W 26–7; offense 76.3 percentile2018 Week 5: Baylor at Oklahoma · L 33–66; offense 39.3 percentile2018 Week 6: Baylor vs. Kansas State · W 37–34; offense 71.2 percentile2018 Week 7: Baylor at Texas · L 17–23; offense 17.5 percentile2018 Week 9: Baylor at West Virginia · L 14–58; offense 11.1 percentile2018 Week 10: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State · W 35–31; offense 64.4 percentile2018 Week 11: Baylor at Iowa State · L 14–28; offense 77.4 percentile2018 Week 12: Baylor vs. TCU · L 9–16; offense 17.5 percentile2018 Week 13: Baylor vs. Texas Tech · W 35–24; offense 84.2 percentile2018 Week 1: Baylor vs. Vanderbilt · W 45–38; offense 88.4 percentile2019 Week 1: Baylor vs. Stephen F. Austin · W 56–17; offense 69.9 percentile2019 Week 2: Baylor vs. UTSA · W 63–14; offense 97.6 percentile2019 Week 4: Baylor at Rice · W 21–13; offense 56.6 percentile2019 Week 5: Baylor vs. Iowa State · W 23–21; offense 41.4 percentile2019 Week 6: Baylor at Kansas State · W 31–12; offense 51.9 percentile2019 Week 7: Baylor vs. Texas Tech · W 33–30; offense 54.8 percentile2019 Week 8: Baylor at Oklahoma State · W 45–27; offense 69.5 percentile2019 Week 10: Baylor vs. West Virginia · W 17–14; offense 32.6 percentile2019 Week 11: Baylor at TCU · W 29–23; offense 21.6 percentile2019 Week 12: Baylor vs. Oklahoma · L 31–34; offense 76.7 percentile2019 Week 13: Baylor vs. Texas · W 24–10; offense 59.1 percentile2019 Week 14: Baylor at Kansas · W 61–6; offense 64.2 percentile2019 Week 15: Baylor vs. Oklahoma · L 23–30; offense 17.2 percentile2019 Week 1: Baylor vs. Georgia · L 14–26; offense 38.4 percentile2020 Week 4: Baylor vs. Kansas · W 47–14; offense 39.8 percentile2020 Week 5: Baylor at West Virginia · L 21–27; offense 5.1 percentile2020 Week 8: Baylor at Texas · L 16–27; offense 30.3 percentile2020 Week 9: Baylor vs. TCU · L 23–33; offense 10.6 percentile2020 Week 10: Baylor at Iowa State · L 31–38; offense 65.1 percentile2020 Week 11: Baylor at Texas Tech · L 23–24; offense 28.2 percentile2020 Week 13: Baylor vs. Kansas State · W 32–31; offense 36.6 percentile2020 Week 14: Baylor at Oklahoma · L 14–27; offense 8.6 percentile2020 Week 15: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State · L 3–42; offense 4.3 percentile2021 Week 1: Baylor at Texas State · W 29–20; offense 51.2 percentile2021 Week 2: Baylor vs. Texas Southern · W 66–7; offense 97.6 percentile2021 Week 3: Baylor at Kansas · W 45–7; offense 84.1 percentile2021 Week 4: Baylor vs. Iowa State · W 31–29; offense 65.5 percentile2021 Week 5: Baylor at Oklahoma State · L 14–24; offense 32.0 percentile2021 Week 6: Baylor vs. West Virginia · W 45–20; offense 91.6 percentile2021 Week 7: Baylor vs. BYU · W 38–24; offense 86.7 percentile2021 Week 9: Baylor vs. Texas · W 31–24; offense 47.2 percentile2021 Week 10: Baylor at TCU · L 28–30; offense 29.8 percentile2021 Week 11: Baylor vs. Oklahoma · W 27–14; offense 72.5 percentile2021 Week 12: Baylor at Kansas State · W 20–10; offense 64.8 percentile2021 Week 13: Baylor vs. Texas Tech · W 27–24; offense 44.8 percentile2021 Week 14: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State · W 21–16; offense 51.8 percentile2021 Week 1: Baylor vs. Ole Miss · W 21–7; offense 37.6 percentile2022 Week 1: Baylor vs. UAlbany · W 69–10; offense 67.9 percentile2022 Week 2: Baylor at BYU · L 20–26; offense 31.7 percentile2022 Week 3: Baylor vs. Texas State · W 42–7; offense 95.6 percentile2022 Week 4: Baylor at Iowa State · W 31–24; offense 86.6 percentile2022 Week 5: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State · L 25–36; offense 53.0 percentile2022 Week 7: Baylor at West Virginia · L 40–43; offense 88.7 percentile2022 Week 8: Baylor vs. Kansas · W 35–23; offense 65.9 percentile2022 Week 9: Baylor at Texas Tech · W 45–17; offense 54.2 percentile2022 Week 12: Baylor vs. TCU · L 28–29; offense 69.6 percentile2022 Week 13: Baylor at Texas · L 27–38; offense 28.1 percentile2022 Week 1: Baylor vs. Air Force · L 15–30; offense 8.6 percentile2023 Week 1: Baylor vs. Texas State · L 31–42; offense 54.9 percentile2023 Week 2: Baylor vs. Utah · L 13–20; offense 30.2 percentile2023 Week 3: Baylor vs. Long Island University · W 30–7; offense 37.9 percentile2023 Week 4: Baylor vs. Texas · L 6–38; offense 15.0 percentile2023 Week 5: Baylor at UCF · W 36–35; offense 72.7 percentile2023 Week 6: Baylor vs. Texas Tech · L 14–39; offense 4.5 percentile2023 Week 8: Baylor at Cincinnati · W 32–29; offense 21.1 percentile2023 Week 9: Baylor vs. Iowa State · L 18–30; offense 43.7 percentile2023 Week 11: Baylor at Kansas State · L 25–59; offense 20.7 percentile2023 Week 12: Baylor at TCU · L 17–42; offense 42.1 percentile2023 Week 13: Baylor vs. West Virginia · L 31–34; offense 36.5 percentile2024 Week 1: Baylor vs. Tarleton State · W 45–3; offense 26.3 percentile2024 Week 2: Baylor at Utah · L 12–23; offense 13.6 percentile2024 Week 3: Baylor vs. Air Force · W 31–3; offense 75.8 percentile2024 Week 4: Baylor at Colorado · L 31–38; offense 36.4 percentile2024 Week 5: Baylor vs. BYU · L 28–34; offense 54.5 percentile2024 Week 6: Baylor at Iowa State · L 21–43; offense 51.5 percentile2024 Week 8: Baylor at Texas Tech · W 59–35; offense 98.5 percentile2024 Week 9: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State · W 38–28; offense 78.8 percentile2024 Week 10: Baylor vs. TCU · W 37–34; offense 91.7 percentile2024 Week 12: Baylor at West Virginia · W 49–35; offense 95.5 percentile2024 Week 13: Baylor at Houston · W 20–10; offense 30.6 percentile2024 Week 14: Baylor vs. Kansas · W 45–17; offense 94.2 percentile2024 Week 1: Baylor vs. LSU · L 31–44; offense 49.1 percentile2025 Week 1: Baylor vs. Auburn · L 24–38; offense 78.6 percentile2025 Week 3: Baylor vs. Samford · W 42–7; offense 30.8 percentile2025 Week 4: Baylor vs. Arizona State · L 24–27; offense 65.3 percentile2025 Week 5: Baylor at Oklahoma State · W 45–27; offense 66.9 percentile2025 Week 6: Baylor vs. Kansas State · W 35–34; offense 54.8 percentile2025 Week 8: Baylor at TCU · L 36–42; offense 26.1 percentile2025 Week 9: Baylor at Cincinnati · L 20–41; offense 47.2 percentile2025 Week 10: Baylor vs. UCF · W 30–3; offense 76.1 percentile2025 Week 12: Baylor vs. Utah · L 28–55; offense 54.2 percentile2025 Week 13: Baylor at Arizona · L 17–41; offense 53.1 percentile2025 Week 14: Baylor vs. Houston · L 24–31; offense 56.0 percentile2026 Week 1: Baylor vs. Auburn · L 16–17; offense 42.3 percentile2014 offense season mean: 79.9 percentile2015 offense season mean: 87.2 percentile2016 offense season mean: 61.9 percentile2017 offense season mean: 33.2 percentile2018 offense season mean: 55.9 percentile2019 offense season mean: 55.6 percentile2020 offense season mean: 20.9 percentile2021 offense season mean: 65.0 percentile2022 offense season mean: 61.4 percentile2023 offense season mean: 32.0 percentile2024 offense season mean: 67.4 percentile2025 offense season mean: 55.7 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 54.2 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 42.3 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Baylor vs. SMU · W 45–0; defense 96.5 percentile2014 Week 2: Baylor vs. Northwestern State · W 70–6; defense 80.7 percentile2014 Week 3: Baylor at Buffalo · W 63–21; defense 87.2 percentile2014 Week 5: Baylor at Iowa State · W 49–28; defense 73.1 percentile2014 Week 6: Baylor at Texas · W 28–7; defense 63.2 percentile2014 Week 7: Baylor vs. TCU · W 61–58; defense 87.3 percentile2014 Week 8: Baylor at West Virginia · L 27–41; defense 46.5 percentile2014 Week 10: Baylor vs. Kansas · W 60–14; defense 66.5 percentile2014 Week 11: Baylor at Oklahoma · W 48–14; defense 89.8 percentile2014 Week 13: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State · W 49–28; defense 46.6 percentile2014 Week 14: Baylor vs. Texas Tech · W 48–46; defense 20.4 percentile2014 Week 15: Baylor vs. Kansas State · W 38–27; defense 38.1 percentile2014 Week 1: Baylor vs. Michigan State · L 41–42; defense 23.7 percentile2015 Week 1: Baylor at SMU · W 56–21; defense 60.3 percentile2015 Week 2: Baylor vs. Lamar · W 66–31; defense 38.0 percentile2015 Week 4: Baylor vs. Rice · W 70–17; defense 82.1 percentile2015 Week 5: Baylor vs. Texas Tech · W 63–35; defense 71.8 percentile2015 Week 6: Baylor at Kansas · W 66–7; defense 77.2 percentile2015 Week 7: Baylor vs. West Virginia · W 62–38; defense 73.2 percentile2015 Week 8: Baylor vs. Iowa State · W 45–27; defense 69.7 percentile2015 Week 10: Baylor at Kansas State · W 31–24; defense 28.8 percentile2015 Week 11: Baylor vs. Oklahoma · L 34–44; defense 62.7 percentile2015 Week 12: Baylor at Oklahoma State · W 45–35; defense 78.7 percentile2015 Week 13: Baylor at TCU · L 21–28; defense 97.6 percentile2015 Week 14: Baylor vs. Texas · L 17–23; defense 72.4 percentile2015 Week 1: Baylor vs. North Carolina · W 49–38; defense 23.3 percentile2016 Week 1: Baylor vs. Northwestern State · W 55–7; defense 94.0 percentile2016 Week 2: Baylor vs. SMU · W 40–13; defense 58.7 percentile2016 Week 3: Baylor at Rice · W 38–10; defense 84.6 percentile2016 Week 4: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State · W 35–24; defense 72.4 percentile2016 Week 5: Baylor at Iowa State · W 45–42; defense 20.7 percentile2016 Week 7: Baylor vs. Kansas · W 49–7; defense 87.6 percentile2016 Week 9: Baylor at Texas · L 34–35; defense 40.4 percentile2016 Week 10: Baylor vs. TCU · L 22–62; defense 1.8 percentile2016 Week 11: Baylor at Oklahoma · L 24–45; defense 35.3 percentile2016 Week 12: Baylor vs. Kansas State · L 21–42; defense 29.0 percentile2016 Week 13: Baylor vs. Texas Tech · L 35–54; defense 21.6 percentile2016 Week 14: Baylor at West Virginia · L 21–24; defense 72.2 percentile2016 Week 1: Baylor vs. Boise State · W 31–12; defense 95.7 percentile2017 Week 1: Baylor vs. Liberty · L 45–48; defense 12.1 percentile2017 Week 2: Baylor vs. UTSA · L 10–17; defense 41.7 percentile2017 Week 3: Baylor at Duke · L 20–34; defense 63.1 percentile2017 Week 4: Baylor vs. Oklahoma · L 41–49; defense 21.6 percentile2017 Week 5: Baylor at Kansas State · L 20–33; defense 31.7 percentile2017 Week 7: Baylor at Oklahoma State · L 16–59; defense 9.2 percentile2017 Week 8: Baylor vs. West Virginia · L 36–38; defense 15.9 percentile2017 Week 9: Baylor vs. Texas · L 7–38; defense 54.2 percentile2017 Week 10: Baylor at Kansas · W 38–9; defense 62.2 percentile2017 Week 11: Baylor vs. Texas Tech · L 24–38; defense 55.8 percentile2017 Week 12: Baylor vs. Iowa State · L 13–23; defense 25.8 percentile2017 Week 13: Baylor at TCU · L 22–45; defense 58.8 percentile2018 Week 1: Baylor vs. Abilene Christian · W 55–27; defense 7.6 percentile2018 Week 2: Baylor at UTSA · W 37–20; defense 41.3 percentile2018 Week 3: Baylor vs. Duke · L 27–40; defense 42.3 percentile2018 Week 4: Baylor vs. Kansas · W 26–7; defense 73.8 percentile2018 Week 5: Baylor at Oklahoma · L 33–66; defense 28.3 percentile2018 Week 6: Baylor vs. Kansas State · W 37–34; defense 6.6 percentile2018 Week 7: Baylor at Texas · L 17–23; defense 64.2 percentile2018 Week 9: Baylor at West Virginia · L 14–58; defense 39.0 percentile2018 Week 10: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State · W 35–31; defense 31.2 percentile2018 Week 11: Baylor at Iowa State · L 14–28; defense 21.9 percentile2018 Week 12: Baylor vs. TCU · L 9–16; defense 70.5 percentile2018 Week 13: Baylor vs. Texas Tech · W 35–24; defense 30.9 percentile2018 Week 1: Baylor vs. Vanderbilt · W 45–38; defense 11.0 percentile2019 Week 1: Baylor vs. Stephen F. Austin · W 56–17; defense 40.9 percentile2019 Week 2: Baylor vs. UTSA · W 63–14; defense 75.7 percentile2019 Week 4: Baylor at Rice · W 21–13; defense 83.8 percentile2019 Week 5: Baylor vs. Iowa State · W 23–21; defense 62.1 percentile2019 Week 6: Baylor at Kansas State · W 31–12; defense 83.2 percentile2019 Week 7: Baylor vs. Texas Tech · W 33–30; defense 54.3 percentile2019 Week 8: Baylor at Oklahoma State · W 45–27; defense 44.7 percentile2019 Week 10: Baylor vs. West Virginia · W 17–14; defense 94.7 percentile2019 Week 11: Baylor at TCU · W 29–23; defense 88.2 percentile2019 Week 12: Baylor vs. Oklahoma · L 31–34; defense 41.5 percentile2019 Week 13: Baylor vs. Texas · W 24–10; defense 70.4 percentile2019 Week 14: Baylor at Kansas · W 61–6; defense 92.0 percentile2019 Week 15: Baylor vs. Oklahoma · L 23–30; defense 96.7 percentile2019 Week 1: Baylor vs. Georgia · L 14–26; defense 60.6 percentile2020 Week 4: Baylor vs. Kansas · W 47–14; defense 25.9 percentile2020 Week 5: Baylor at West Virginia · L 21–27; defense 84.5 percentile2020 Week 8: Baylor at Texas · L 16–27; defense 37.5 percentile2020 Week 9: Baylor vs. TCU · L 23–33; defense 68.8 percentile2020 Week 10: Baylor at Iowa State · L 31–38; defense 33.2 percentile2020 Week 11: Baylor at Texas Tech · L 23–24; defense 62.9 percentile2020 Week 13: Baylor vs. Kansas State · W 32–31; defense 14.3 percentile2020 Week 14: Baylor at Oklahoma · L 14–27; defense 89.1 percentile2020 Week 15: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State · L 3–42; defense 3.4 percentile2021 Week 1: Baylor at Texas State · W 29–20; defense 68.7 percentile2021 Week 2: Baylor vs. Texas Southern · W 66–7; defense 44.3 percentile2021 Week 3: Baylor at Kansas · W 45–7; defense 82.5 percentile2021 Week 4: Baylor vs. Iowa State · W 31–29; defense 22.5 percentile2021 Week 5: Baylor at Oklahoma State · L 14–24; defense 58.8 percentile2021 Week 6: Baylor vs. West Virginia · W 45–20; defense 60.1 percentile2021 Week 7: Baylor vs. BYU · W 38–24; defense 66.5 percentile2021 Week 9: Baylor vs. Texas · W 31–24; defense 72.7 percentile2021 Week 10: Baylor at TCU · L 28–30; defense 51.0 percentile2021 Week 11: Baylor vs. Oklahoma · W 27–14; defense 74.6 percentile2021 Week 12: Baylor at Kansas State · W 20–10; defense 89.1 percentile2021 Week 13: Baylor vs. Texas Tech · W 27–24; defense 19.2 percentile2021 Week 14: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State · W 21–16; defense 86.0 percentile2021 Week 1: Baylor vs. Ole Miss · W 21–7; defense 86.1 percentile2022 Week 1: Baylor vs. UAlbany · W 69–10; defense 37.5 percentile2022 Week 2: Baylor at BYU · L 20–26; defense 93.9 percentile2022 Week 3: Baylor vs. Texas State · W 42–7; defense 76.7 percentile2022 Week 4: Baylor at Iowa State · W 31–24; defense 36.0 percentile2022 Week 5: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State · L 25–36; defense 44.2 percentile2022 Week 7: Baylor at West Virginia · L 40–43; defense 20.6 percentile2022 Week 8: Baylor vs. Kansas · W 35–23; defense 60.9 percentile2022 Week 9: Baylor at Texas Tech · W 45–17; defense 46.3 percentile2022 Week 12: Baylor vs. TCU · L 28–29; defense 40.7 percentile2022 Week 13: Baylor at Texas · L 27–38; defense 17.0 percentile2022 Week 1: Baylor vs. Air Force · L 15–30; defense 53.1 percentile2023 Week 1: Baylor vs. Texas State · L 31–42; defense 34.0 percentile2023 Week 2: Baylor vs. Utah · L 13–20; defense 42.6 percentile2023 Week 3: Baylor vs. Long Island University · W 30–7; defense 21.3 percentile2023 Week 4: Baylor vs. Texas · L 6–38; defense 13.8 percentile2023 Week 5: Baylor at UCF · W 36–35; defense 36.0 percentile2023 Week 6: Baylor vs. Texas Tech · L 14–39; defense 9.8 percentile2023 Week 8: Baylor at Cincinnati · W 32–29; defense 32.1 percentile2023 Week 9: Baylor vs. Iowa State · L 18–30; defense 10.8 percentile2023 Week 11: Baylor at Kansas State · L 25–59; defense 26.3 percentile2023 Week 12: Baylor at TCU · L 17–42; defense 14.8 percentile2023 Week 13: Baylor vs. West Virginia · L 31–34; defense 40.4 percentile2024 Week 1: Baylor vs. Tarleton State · W 45–3; defense 73.9 percentile2024 Week 2: Baylor at Utah · L 12–23; defense 43.6 percentile2024 Week 3: Baylor vs. Air Force · W 31–3; defense 93.6 percentile2024 Week 4: Baylor at Colorado · L 31–38; defense 53.5 percentile2024 Week 5: Baylor vs. BYU · L 28–34; defense 47.1 percentile2024 Week 6: Baylor at Iowa State · L 21–43; defense 8.2 percentile2024 Week 8: Baylor at Texas Tech · W 59–35; defense 69.7 percentile2024 Week 9: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State · W 38–28; defense 42.8 percentile2024 Week 10: Baylor vs. TCU · W 37–34; defense 40.6 percentile2024 Week 12: Baylor at West Virginia · W 49–35; defense 41.8 percentile2024 Week 13: Baylor at Houston · W 20–10; defense 64.2 percentile2024 Week 14: Baylor vs. Kansas · W 45–17; defense 45.9 percentile2024 Week 1: Baylor vs. LSU · L 31–44; defense 30.6 percentile2025 Week 1: Baylor vs. Auburn · L 24–38; defense 6.7 percentile2025 Week 3: Baylor vs. Samford · W 42–7; defense 35.2 percentile2025 Week 4: Baylor vs. Arizona State · L 24–27; defense 56.0 percentile2025 Week 5: Baylor at Oklahoma State · W 45–27; defense 32.0 percentile2025 Week 6: Baylor vs. Kansas State · W 35–34; defense 28.1 percentile2025 Week 8: Baylor at TCU · L 36–42; defense 58.2 percentile2025 Week 9: Baylor at Cincinnati · L 20–41; defense 15.5 percentile2025 Week 10: Baylor vs. UCF · W 30–3; defense 87.8 percentile2025 Week 12: Baylor vs. Utah · L 28–55; defense 8.3 percentile2025 Week 13: Baylor at Arizona · L 17–41; defense 34.5 percentile2025 Week 14: Baylor vs. Houston · L 24–31; defense 37.6 percentile2026 Week 1: Baylor vs. Auburn · L 16–17; defense 67.7 percentile2014 defense season mean: 66.7 percentile2015 defense season mean: 67.1 percentile2016 defense season mean: 56.0 percentile2017 defense season mean: 35.4 percentile2018 defense season mean: 33.2 percentile2019 defense season mean: 74.8 percentile2020 defense season mean: 44.6 percentile2021 defense season mean: 64.6 percentile2022 defense season mean: 48.9 percentile2023 defense season mean: 24.0 percentile2024 defense season mean: 50.8 percentile2025 defense season mean: 34.1 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 37.7 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 67.7 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2016Jim Grobe
2017Matt Rhule
2020Dave Aranda

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateDave Aranda1
54.2 estimate42.3 games-only average
37.7 estimate67.7 games-only average
2025Dave Aranda1155.734.1
2024Dave Aranda1367.450.8
2023Dave Aranda1132.024.0
2022Dave Aranda1161.448.9
2021Dave Aranda1465.064.6
2020Dave ArandaCoaching change920.944.6
2019Matt Rhule1455.674.8
2018Matt Rhule1355.933.2
2017Matt RhuleCoaching change1233.235.4
2016Jim GrobeCoaching change1361.956.0
2015Art Briles1387.267.1
2014Art Briles1379.966.7