2014–2026 performance history

North Carolina over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

ACCHead coach: Bill BelichickView North Carolina games →
Offense · 2026 estimate35.2/100

63.1 average through 2 games

28.8 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate45.5/100

58.5 average through 2 games

42.3 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

North Carolina individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.Fedora · ’14–’18Larry Fedora, 2014–2018Brown · ’19–’24Mack Brown, 2019–2024Belichick · ’25–’26Bill Belichick, 2025–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: North Carolina vs. Liberty · W 56–29; offense 17.7 percentile2014 Week 2: North Carolina vs. San Diego State · W 31–27; offense 65.5 percentile2014 Week 4: North Carolina at East Carolina · L 41–70; offense 75.7 percentile2014 Week 5: North Carolina at Clemson · L 35–50; offense 92.8 percentile2014 Week 6: North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech · L 17–34; offense 33.8 percentile2014 Week 7: North Carolina at Notre Dame · L 43–50; offense 58.0 percentile2014 Week 8: North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech · W 48–43; offense 83.9 percentile2014 Week 9: North Carolina at Virginia · W 28–27; offense 47.7 percentile2014 Week 10: North Carolina at Miami · L 20–47; offense 16.0 percentile2014 Week 12: North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh · W 40–35; offense 74.8 percentile2014 Week 13: North Carolina at Duke · W 45–20; offense 89.2 percentile2014 Week 14: North Carolina vs. NC State · L 7–35; offense 1.7 percentile2014 Week 1: North Carolina vs. Rutgers · L 21–40; offense 28.9 percentile2015 Week 1: North Carolina vs. South Carolina · L 13–17; offense 53.6 percentile2015 Week 2: North Carolina vs. North Carolina A&T · W 53–14; offense 63.5 percentile2015 Week 3: North Carolina vs. Illinois · W 48–14; offense 89.1 percentile2015 Week 4: North Carolina vs. Delaware · W 41–14; offense 84.3 percentile2015 Week 5: North Carolina at Georgia Tech · W 38–31; offense 92.7 percentile2015 Week 7: North Carolina vs. Wake Forest · W 50–14; offense 96.9 percentile2015 Week 8: North Carolina vs. Virginia · W 26–13; offense 69.7 percentile2015 Week 9: North Carolina at Pittsburgh · W 26–19; offense 88.2 percentile2015 Week 10: North Carolina vs. Duke · W 66–31; offense 98.9 percentile2015 Week 11: North Carolina vs. Miami · W 59–21; offense 92.0 percentile2015 Week 12: North Carolina at Virginia Tech · W 30–27; offense 53.9 percentile2015 Week 13: North Carolina at NC State · W 45–34; offense 99.9 percentile2015 Week 14: North Carolina vs. Clemson · L 37–45; offense 81.7 percentile2015 Week 1: North Carolina vs. Baylor · L 38–49; offense 98.7 percentile2016 Week 1: North Carolina vs. Georgia · L 24–33; offense 54.6 percentile2016 Week 2: North Carolina at Illinois · W 48–23; offense 65.2 percentile2016 Week 3: North Carolina vs. James Madison · W 56–28; offense 94.8 percentile2016 Week 4: North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh · W 37–36; offense 62.8 percentile2016 Week 5: North Carolina at Florida State · W 37–35; offense 97.0 percentile2016 Week 6: North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech · L 3–34; offense 0.2 percentile2016 Week 7: North Carolina at Miami · W 20–13; offense 55.2 percentile2016 Week 8: North Carolina at Virginia · W 35–14; offense 85.8 percentile2016 Week 10: North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech · W 48–20; offense 98.3 percentile2016 Week 11: North Carolina at Duke · L 27–28; offense 40.7 percentile2016 Week 12: North Carolina vs. The Citadel · W 41–7; offense 36.2 percentile2016 Week 13: North Carolina vs. NC State · L 21–28; offense 62.5 percentile2016 Week 1: North Carolina vs. Stanford · L 23–25; offense 44.5 percentile2017 Week 1: North Carolina vs. California · L 30–35; offense 45.5 percentile2017 Week 2: North Carolina vs. Louisville · L 35–47; offense 39.2 percentile2017 Week 3: North Carolina at Old Dominion · W 53–23; offense 70.1 percentile2017 Week 4: North Carolina vs. Duke · L 17–27; offense 32.0 percentile2017 Week 5: North Carolina at Georgia Tech · L 7–33; offense 27.0 percentile2017 Week 6: North Carolina vs. Notre Dame · L 10–33; offense 7.1 percentile2017 Week 7: North Carolina vs. Virginia · L 14–20; offense 17.2 percentile2017 Week 8: North Carolina at Virginia Tech · L 7–59; offense 8.7 percentile2017 Week 9: North Carolina vs. Miami · L 19–24; offense 34.8 percentile2017 Week 11: North Carolina at Pittsburgh · W 34–31; offense 55.4 percentile2017 Week 12: North Carolina vs. Western Carolina · W 65–10; offense 88.0 percentile2017 Week 13: North Carolina at NC State · L 21–33; offense 50.0 percentile2018 Week 1: North Carolina at California · L 17–24; offense 48.4 percentile2018 Week 2: North Carolina at East Carolina · L 19–41; offense 17.2 percentile2018 Week 4: North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh · W 38–35; offense 63.6 percentile2018 Week 5: North Carolina at Miami · L 10–47; offense 47.6 percentile2018 Week 7: North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech · L 19–22; offense 36.2 percentile2018 Week 8: North Carolina at Syracuse · L 37–40; offense 20.1 percentile2018 Week 9: North Carolina at Virginia · L 21–31; offense 41.3 percentile2018 Week 10: North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech · L 28–38; offense 14.3 percentile2018 Week 11: North Carolina at Duke · L 35–42; offense 76.5 percentile2018 Week 12: North Carolina vs. Western Carolina · W 49–26; offense 63.7 percentile2018 Week 13: North Carolina vs. NC State · L 28–34; offense 46.7 percentile2019 Week 1: North Carolina vs. South Carolina · W 24–20; offense 48.0 percentile2019 Week 2: North Carolina vs. Miami · W 28–25; offense 50.2 percentile2019 Week 3: North Carolina at Wake Forest · L 18–24; offense 15.7 percentile2019 Week 4: North Carolina vs. App State · L 31–34; offense 90.8 percentile2019 Week 5: North Carolina vs. Clemson · L 20–21; offense 72.4 percentile2019 Week 6: North Carolina at Georgia Tech · W 38–22; offense 65.9 percentile2019 Week 9: North Carolina vs. Duke · W 20–17; offense 35.2 percentile2019 Week 10: North Carolina vs. Virginia · L 31–38; offense 87.5 percentile2019 Week 12: North Carolina at Pittsburgh · L 27–34; offense 86.7 percentile2019 Week 13: North Carolina vs. Mercer · W 56–7; offense 84.8 percentile2019 Week 14: North Carolina at NC State · W 41–10; offense 88.4 percentile2019 Week 1: North Carolina vs. Temple · W 55–13; offense 97.4 percentile2020 Week 2: North Carolina vs. Syracuse · W 31–6; offense 50.8 percentile2020 Week 5: North Carolina at Boston College · W 26–22; offense 74.6 percentile2020 Week 6: North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech · W 56–45; offense 98.8 percentile2020 Week 7: North Carolina at Florida State · L 28–31; offense 45.0 percentile2020 Week 8: North Carolina vs. NC State · W 48–21; offense 97.5 percentile2020 Week 9: North Carolina at Virginia · L 41–44; offense 93.0 percentile2020 Week 10: North Carolina at Duke · W 56–24; offense 99.1 percentile2020 Week 11: North Carolina vs. Wake Forest · W 59–53; offense 91.4 percentile2020 Week 13: North Carolina vs. Notre Dame · L 17–31; offense 36.2 percentile2020 Week 14: North Carolina vs. Western Carolina · W 49–9; offense 94.0 percentile2020 Week 15: North Carolina at Miami · W 62–26; offense 99.7 percentile2020 Week 1: North Carolina vs. Texas A&M · L 27–41; offense 45.9 percentile2021 Week 1: North Carolina at Virginia Tech · L 10–17; offense 32.5 percentile2021 Week 2: North Carolina vs. Georgia State · W 59–17; offense 85.2 percentile2021 Week 3: North Carolina vs. Virginia · W 59–39; offense 99.5 percentile2021 Week 4: North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech · L 22–45; offense 4.6 percentile2021 Week 5: North Carolina vs. Duke · W 38–7; offense 19.7 percentile2021 Week 6: North Carolina vs. Florida State · L 25–35; offense 81.6 percentile2021 Week 7: North Carolina vs. Miami · W 45–42; offense 76.3 percentile2021 Week 9: North Carolina at Notre Dame · L 34–44; offense 96.4 percentile2021 Week 10: North Carolina vs. Wake Forest · W 58–55; offense 91.5 percentile2021 Week 11: North Carolina at Pittsburgh · L 23–30; offense 37.5 percentile2021 Week 12: North Carolina vs. Wofford · W 34–14; offense 79.6 percentile2021 Week 13: North Carolina at NC State · L 30–34; offense 88.7 percentile2021 Week 1: North Carolina vs. South Carolina · L 21–38; offense 32.5 percentile2022 Week 1: North Carolina vs. Florida A&M · W 56–24; offense 63.5 percentile2022 Week 2: North Carolina at Georgia State · W 35–28; offense 74.4 percentile2022 Week 4: North Carolina vs. Notre Dame · L 32–45; offense 56.9 percentile2022 Week 5: North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech · W 41–10; offense 95.0 percentile2022 Week 6: North Carolina at Miami · W 27–24; offense 72.1 percentile2022 Week 7: North Carolina at Duke · W 38–35; offense 99.3 percentile2022 Week 9: North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh · W 42–24; offense 83.6 percentile2022 Week 10: North Carolina at Virginia · W 31–28; offense 89.9 percentile2022 Week 11: North Carolina at Wake Forest · W 36–34; offense 88.4 percentile2022 Week 12: North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech · L 17–21; offense 52.6 percentile2022 Week 13: North Carolina vs. NC State · L 27–30; offense 29.4 percentile2022 Week 14: North Carolina vs. Clemson · L 10–39; offense 69.3 percentile2022 Week 1: North Carolina vs. Oregon · L 27–28; offense 34.4 percentile2023 Week 2: North Carolina vs. App State · W 40–34; offense 93.3 percentile2023 Week 3: North Carolina vs. Minnesota · W 31–13; offense 66.5 percentile2023 Week 6: North Carolina vs. Syracuse · W 40–7; offense 80.4 percentile2023 Week 7: North Carolina vs. Miami · W 41–31; offense 88.5 percentile2023 Week 8: North Carolina vs. Virginia · L 27–31; offense 53.8 percentile2023 Week 9: North Carolina at Georgia Tech · L 42–46; offense 96.7 percentile2023 Week 12: North Carolina at Clemson · L 20–31; offense 86.5 percentile2023 Week 13: North Carolina at NC State · L 20–39; offense 76.6 percentile2023 Week 1: North Carolina vs. West Virginia · L 10–30; offense 14.1 percentile2024 Week 1: North Carolina at Minnesota · W 19–17; offense 49.7 percentile2024 Week 3: North Carolina vs. North Carolina Central · W 45–10; offense 45.8 percentile2024 Week 4: North Carolina vs. James Madison · L 50–70; offense 88.8 percentile2024 Week 5: North Carolina at Duke · L 20–21; offense 34.0 percentile2024 Week 6: North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh · L 24–34; offense 56.0 percentile2024 Week 7: North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech · L 34–41; offense 64.2 percentile2024 Week 9: North Carolina at Virginia · W 41–14; offense 80.9 percentile2024 Week 10: North Carolina at Florida State · W 35–11; offense 94.8 percentile2024 Week 12: North Carolina vs. Wake Forest · W 31–24; offense 24.2 percentile2024 Week 13: North Carolina at Boston College · L 21–41; offense 34.2 percentile2024 Week 14: North Carolina vs. NC State · L 30–35; offense 43.2 percentile2024 Week 1: North Carolina vs. UConn · L 14–27; offense 10.4 percentile2025 Week 1: North Carolina vs. TCU · L 14–48; offense 8.2 percentile2025 Week 2: North Carolina at Charlotte · W 20–3; offense 16.4 percentile2025 Week 3: North Carolina vs. Richmond · W 41–6; offense 33.1 percentile2025 Week 4: North Carolina at UCF · L 9–34; offense 24.8 percentile2025 Week 6: North Carolina vs. Clemson · L 10–38; offense 7.5 percentile2025 Week 8: North Carolina at California · L 18–21; offense 15.9 percentile2025 Week 9: North Carolina vs. Virginia · L 16–17; offense 34.9 percentile2025 Week 10: North Carolina at Syracuse · W 27–10; offense 76.4 percentile2025 Week 11: North Carolina vs. Stanford · W 20–15; offense 17.7 percentile2025 Week 12: North Carolina at Wake Forest · L 12–28; offense 27.5 percentile2025 Week 13: North Carolina vs. Duke · L 25–32; offense 64.8 percentile2025 Week 14: North Carolina at NC State · L 19–42; offense 51.7 percentile2026 Week 1: North Carolina vs. TCU · W 15–10; offense 45.0 percentile2026 Week 2: North Carolina vs. East Tennessee State · W 35–3; offense 78.6 percentile2014 offense season mean: 51.8 percentile2015 offense season mean: 89.9 percentile2016 offense season mean: 63.1 percentile2017 offense season mean: 37.6 percentile2018 offense season mean: 42.1 percentile2019 offense season mean: 72.9 percentile2020 offense season mean: 87.5 percentile2021 offense season mean: 69.5 percentile2022 offense season mean: 75.4 percentile2023 offense season mean: 77.1 percentile2024 offense season mean: 53.9 percentile2025 offense season mean: 28.8 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 35.2 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 63.1 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: North Carolina vs. Liberty · W 56–29; defense 40.6 percentile2014 Week 2: North Carolina vs. San Diego State · W 31–27; defense 37.4 percentile2014 Week 4: North Carolina at East Carolina · L 41–70; defense 11.9 percentile2014 Week 5: North Carolina at Clemson · L 35–50; defense 20.0 percentile2014 Week 6: North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech · L 17–34; defense 62.8 percentile2014 Week 7: North Carolina at Notre Dame · L 43–50; defense 18.0 percentile2014 Week 8: North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech · W 48–43; defense 8.4 percentile2014 Week 9: North Carolina at Virginia · W 28–27; defense 30.0 percentile2014 Week 10: North Carolina at Miami · L 20–47; defense 9.0 percentile2014 Week 12: North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh · W 40–35; defense 12.9 percentile2014 Week 13: North Carolina at Duke · W 45–20; defense 67.7 percentile2014 Week 14: North Carolina vs. NC State · L 7–35; defense 12.2 percentile2014 Week 1: North Carolina vs. Rutgers · L 21–40; defense 7.3 percentile2015 Week 1: North Carolina vs. South Carolina · L 13–17; defense 34.6 percentile2015 Week 2: North Carolina vs. North Carolina A&T · W 53–14; defense 36.8 percentile2015 Week 3: North Carolina vs. Illinois · W 48–14; defense 51.8 percentile2015 Week 4: North Carolina vs. Delaware · W 41–14; defense 15.9 percentile2015 Week 5: North Carolina at Georgia Tech · W 38–31; defense 35.9 percentile2015 Week 7: North Carolina vs. Wake Forest · W 50–14; defense 57.8 percentile2015 Week 8: North Carolina vs. Virginia · W 26–13; defense 47.9 percentile2015 Week 9: North Carolina at Pittsburgh · W 26–19; defense 58.0 percentile2015 Week 10: North Carolina vs. Duke · W 66–31; defense 16.3 percentile2015 Week 11: North Carolina vs. Miami · W 59–21; defense 67.6 percentile2015 Week 12: North Carolina at Virginia Tech · W 30–27; defense 51.6 percentile2015 Week 13: North Carolina at NC State · W 45–34; defense 21.9 percentile2015 Week 14: North Carolina vs. Clemson · L 37–45; defense 37.0 percentile2015 Week 1: North Carolina vs. Baylor · L 38–49; defense 8.9 percentile2016 Week 1: North Carolina vs. Georgia · L 24–33; defense 7.1 percentile2016 Week 2: North Carolina at Illinois · W 48–23; defense 61.4 percentile2016 Week 3: North Carolina vs. James Madison · W 56–28; defense 2.3 percentile2016 Week 4: North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh · W 37–36; defense 53.1 percentile2016 Week 5: North Carolina at Florida State · W 37–35; defense 14.0 percentile2016 Week 6: North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech · L 3–34; defense 72.7 percentile2016 Week 7: North Carolina at Miami · W 20–13; defense 69.8 percentile2016 Week 8: North Carolina at Virginia · W 35–14; defense 92.4 percentile2016 Week 10: North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech · W 48–20; defense 17.0 percentile2016 Week 11: North Carolina at Duke · L 27–28; defense 19.3 percentile2016 Week 12: North Carolina vs. The Citadel · W 41–7; defense 27.3 percentile2016 Week 13: North Carolina vs. NC State · L 21–28; defense 10.8 percentile2016 Week 1: North Carolina vs. Stanford · L 23–25; defense 82.7 percentile2017 Week 1: North Carolina vs. California · L 30–35; defense 21.6 percentile2017 Week 2: North Carolina vs. Louisville · L 35–47; defense 10.8 percentile2017 Week 3: North Carolina at Old Dominion · W 53–23; defense 88.0 percentile2017 Week 4: North Carolina vs. Duke · L 17–27; defense 33.1 percentile2017 Week 5: North Carolina at Georgia Tech · L 7–33; defense 21.7 percentile2017 Week 6: North Carolina vs. Notre Dame · L 10–33; defense 59.4 percentile2017 Week 7: North Carolina vs. Virginia · L 14–20; defense 38.6 percentile2017 Week 8: North Carolina at Virginia Tech · L 7–59; defense 35.4 percentile2017 Week 9: North Carolina vs. Miami · L 19–24; defense 77.6 percentile2017 Week 11: North Carolina at Pittsburgh · W 34–31; defense 7.5 percentile2017 Week 12: North Carolina vs. Western Carolina · W 65–10; defense 30.6 percentile2017 Week 13: North Carolina at NC State · L 21–33; defense 19.2 percentile2018 Week 1: North Carolina at California · L 17–24; defense 82.7 percentile2018 Week 2: North Carolina at East Carolina · L 19–41; defense 15.4 percentile2018 Week 4: North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh · W 38–35; defense 13.6 percentile2018 Week 5: North Carolina at Miami · L 10–47; defense 20.9 percentile2018 Week 7: North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech · L 19–22; defense 54.1 percentile2018 Week 8: North Carolina at Syracuse · L 37–40; defense 61.4 percentile2018 Week 9: North Carolina at Virginia · L 21–31; defense 35.9 percentile2018 Week 10: North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech · L 28–38; defense 22.7 percentile2018 Week 11: North Carolina at Duke · L 35–42; defense 9.3 percentile2018 Week 12: North Carolina vs. Western Carolina · W 49–26; defense 30.3 percentile2018 Week 13: North Carolina vs. NC State · L 28–34; defense 47.8 percentile2019 Week 1: North Carolina vs. South Carolina · W 24–20; defense 43.9 percentile2019 Week 2: North Carolina vs. Miami · W 28–25; defense 30.7 percentile2019 Week 3: North Carolina at Wake Forest · L 18–24; defense 50.9 percentile2019 Week 4: North Carolina vs. App State · L 31–34; defense 60.2 percentile2019 Week 5: North Carolina vs. Clemson · L 20–21; defense 86.0 percentile2019 Week 6: North Carolina at Georgia Tech · W 38–22; defense 44.5 percentile2019 Week 9: North Carolina vs. Duke · W 20–17; defense 62.5 percentile2019 Week 10: North Carolina vs. Virginia · L 31–38; defense 10.6 percentile2019 Week 12: North Carolina at Pittsburgh · L 27–34; defense 6.3 percentile2019 Week 13: North Carolina vs. Mercer · W 56–7; defense 68.0 percentile2019 Week 14: North Carolina at NC State · W 41–10; defense 59.1 percentile2019 Week 1: North Carolina vs. Temple · W 55–13; defense 71.9 percentile2020 Week 2: North Carolina vs. Syracuse · W 31–6; defense 80.4 percentile2020 Week 5: North Carolina at Boston College · W 26–22; defense 48.1 percentile2020 Week 6: North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech · W 56–45; defense 23.6 percentile2020 Week 7: North Carolina at Florida State · L 28–31; defense 26.7 percentile2020 Week 8: North Carolina vs. NC State · W 48–21; defense 38.1 percentile2020 Week 9: North Carolina at Virginia · L 41–44; defense 22.2 percentile2020 Week 10: North Carolina at Duke · W 56–24; defense 25.7 percentile2020 Week 11: North Carolina vs. Wake Forest · W 59–53; defense 14.0 percentile2020 Week 13: North Carolina vs. Notre Dame · L 17–31; defense 37.3 percentile2020 Week 14: North Carolina vs. Western Carolina · W 49–9; defense 80.9 percentile2020 Week 15: North Carolina at Miami · W 62–26; defense 82.1 percentile2020 Week 1: North Carolina vs. Texas A&M · L 27–41; defense 17.2 percentile2021 Week 1: North Carolina at Virginia Tech · L 10–17; defense 80.6 percentile2021 Week 2: North Carolina vs. Georgia State · W 59–17; defense 97.3 percentile2021 Week 3: North Carolina vs. Virginia · W 59–39; defense 27.8 percentile2021 Week 4: North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech · L 22–45; defense 11.8 percentile2021 Week 5: North Carolina vs. Duke · W 38–7; defense 79.4 percentile2021 Week 6: North Carolina vs. Florida State · L 25–35; defense 5.4 percentile2021 Week 7: North Carolina vs. Miami · W 45–42; defense 21.5 percentile2021 Week 9: North Carolina at Notre Dame · L 34–44; defense 8.9 percentile2021 Week 10: North Carolina vs. Wake Forest · W 58–55; defense 17.0 percentile2021 Week 11: North Carolina at Pittsburgh · L 23–30; defense 50.2 percentile2021 Week 12: North Carolina vs. Wofford · W 34–14; defense 9.1 percentile2021 Week 13: North Carolina at NC State · L 30–34; defense 37.5 percentile2021 Week 1: North Carolina vs. South Carolina · L 21–38; defense 1.2 percentile2022 Week 1: North Carolina vs. Florida A&M · W 56–24; defense 14.5 percentile2022 Week 2: North Carolina at Georgia State · W 35–28; defense 59.0 percentile2022 Week 4: North Carolina vs. Notre Dame · L 32–45; defense 4.2 percentile2022 Week 5: North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech · W 41–10; defense 60.1 percentile2022 Week 6: North Carolina at Miami · W 27–24; defense 41.9 percentile2022 Week 7: North Carolina at Duke · W 38–35; defense 13.5 percentile2022 Week 9: North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh · W 42–24; defense 44.6 percentile2022 Week 10: North Carolina at Virginia · W 31–28; defense 10.0 percentile2022 Week 11: North Carolina at Wake Forest · W 36–34; defense 31.5 percentile2022 Week 12: North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech · L 17–21; defense 13.6 percentile2022 Week 13: North Carolina vs. NC State · L 27–30; defense 65.5 percentile2022 Week 14: North Carolina vs. Clemson · L 10–39; defense 36.1 percentile2022 Week 1: North Carolina vs. Oregon · L 27–28; defense 38.4 percentile2023 Week 2: North Carolina vs. App State · W 40–34; defense 18.3 percentile2023 Week 3: North Carolina vs. Minnesota · W 31–13; defense 57.6 percentile2023 Week 6: North Carolina vs. Syracuse · W 40–7; defense 71.7 percentile2023 Week 7: North Carolina vs. Miami · W 41–31; defense 45.2 percentile2023 Week 8: North Carolina vs. Virginia · L 27–31; defense 15.4 percentile2023 Week 9: North Carolina at Georgia Tech · L 42–46; defense 5.7 percentile2023 Week 12: North Carolina at Clemson · L 20–31; defense 32.6 percentile2023 Week 13: North Carolina at NC State · L 20–39; defense 6.9 percentile2023 Week 1: North Carolina vs. West Virginia · L 10–30; defense 53.4 percentile2024 Week 1: North Carolina at Minnesota · W 19–17; defense 86.7 percentile2024 Week 3: North Carolina vs. North Carolina Central · W 45–10; defense 61.9 percentile2024 Week 4: North Carolina vs. James Madison · L 50–70; defense 3.6 percentile2024 Week 5: North Carolina at Duke · L 20–21; defense 48.0 percentile2024 Week 6: North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh · L 24–34; defense 3.5 percentile2024 Week 7: North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech · L 34–41; defense 10.7 percentile2024 Week 9: North Carolina at Virginia · W 41–14; defense 50.5 percentile2024 Week 10: North Carolina at Florida State · W 35–11; defense 56.9 percentile2024 Week 12: North Carolina vs. Wake Forest · W 31–24; defense 60.4 percentile2024 Week 13: North Carolina at Boston College · L 21–41; defense 36.6 percentile2024 Week 14: North Carolina vs. NC State · L 30–35; defense 17.9 percentile2024 Week 1: North Carolina vs. UConn · L 14–27; defense 22.0 percentile2025 Week 1: North Carolina vs. TCU · L 14–48; defense 4.6 percentile2025 Week 2: North Carolina at Charlotte · W 20–3; defense 84.2 percentile2025 Week 3: North Carolina vs. Richmond · W 41–6; defense 42.4 percentile2025 Week 4: North Carolina at UCF · L 9–34; defense 25.4 percentile2025 Week 6: North Carolina vs. Clemson · L 10–38; defense 15.6 percentile2025 Week 8: North Carolina at California · L 18–21; defense 82.0 percentile2025 Week 9: North Carolina vs. Virginia · L 16–17; defense 86.5 percentile2025 Week 10: North Carolina at Syracuse · W 27–10; defense 73.8 percentile2025 Week 11: North Carolina vs. Stanford · W 20–15; defense 39.4 percentile2025 Week 12: North Carolina at Wake Forest · L 12–28; defense 24.4 percentile2025 Week 13: North Carolina vs. Duke · L 25–32; defense 37.4 percentile2025 Week 14: North Carolina at NC State · L 19–42; defense 12.2 percentile2026 Week 1: North Carolina vs. TCU · W 15–10; defense 80.9 percentile2026 Week 2: North Carolina vs. East Tennessee State · W 35–3; defense 32.7 percentile2014 defense season mean: 22.8 percentile2015 defense season mean: 37.0 percentile2016 defense season mean: 36.9 percentile2017 defense season mean: 35.2 percentile2018 defense season mean: 33.8 percentile2019 defense season mean: 47.9 percentile2020 defense season mean: 40.7 percentile2021 defense season mean: 30.2 percentile2022 defense season mean: 29.9 percentile2023 defense season mean: 30.0 percentile2024 defense season mean: 33.6 percentile2025 defense season mean: 42.3 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 45.5 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 58.5 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2019Mack Brown
2024Mack Brown / Freddie Kitchens
2025Bill Belichick

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateBill Belichick2
35.2 estimate63.1 games-only average
45.5 estimate58.5 games-only average
2025Bill BelichickCoaching change1228.842.3
2024Mack Brown / Freddie KitchensCoaching change1253.933.6
2023Mack Brown977.130.0
2022Mack Brown1375.429.9
2021Mack Brown1369.530.2
2020Mack Brown1287.540.7
2019Mack BrownCoaching change1272.947.9
2018Larry Fedora1142.133.8
2017Larry Fedora1237.635.2
2016Larry Fedora1363.136.9
2015Larry Fedora1489.937.0
2014Larry Fedora1351.822.8