2014–2026 performance history

UCF over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

Big 12Head coach: Scott FrostView UCF games →
Offense · 2026 estimate45.2/100

83.6 average through 1 game

39.8 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate52.9/100

73.6 average through 1 game

50.1 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

UCF individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.O'Leary · ’14–’15George O'Leary, 2014–2015Frost · ’16–’17Scott Frost, 2016–2017Heupel · ’18–’20Josh Heupel, 2018–2020Malzahn · ’21–’24Gus Malzahn, 2021–2024Frost · ’25–’26Scott Frost, 2025–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: UCF vs. Penn State · L 24–26; offense 57.3 percentile2014 Week 3: UCF at Missouri · L 10–38; offense 50.4 percentile2014 Week 4: UCF vs. Bethune-Cookman · W 41–7; offense 56.7 percentile2014 Week 6: UCF at Houston · W 17–12; offense 21.9 percentile2014 Week 7: UCF vs. BYU · W 31–24; offense 13.4 percentile2014 Week 8: UCF vs. Tulane · W 20–13; offense 6.1 percentile2014 Week 9: UCF vs. Temple · W 34–14; offense 68.2 percentile2014 Week 10: UCF at UConn · L 29–37; offense 48.6 percentile2014 Week 12: UCF vs. Tulsa · W 31–7; offense 49.4 percentile2014 Week 13: UCF vs. SMU · W 53–7; offense 50.9 percentile2014 Week 14: UCF at South Florida · W 16–0; offense 28.3 percentile2014 Week 15: UCF at East Carolina · W 32–30; offense 34.5 percentile2014 Week 1: UCF vs. NC State · L 27–34; offense 23.6 percentile2015 Week 1: UCF vs. Florida International · L 14–15; offense 6.1 percentile2015 Week 2: UCF at Stanford · L 7–31; offense 4.5 percentile2015 Week 3: UCF vs. Furman · L 15–16; offense 1.3 percentile2015 Week 4: UCF at South Carolina · L 14–31; offense 3.1 percentile2015 Week 5: UCF at Tulane · L 31–45; offense 6.8 percentile2015 Week 6: UCF vs. UConn · L 13–40; offense 37.0 percentile2015 Week 7: UCF at Temple · L 16–30; offense 6.2 percentile2015 Week 8: UCF vs. Houston · L 10–59; offense 42.0 percentile2015 Week 9: UCF at Cincinnati · L 7–52; offense 20.6 percentile2015 Week 10: UCF at Tulsa · L 30–45; offense 19.3 percentile2015 Week 12: UCF vs. East Carolina · L 7–44; offense 4.0 percentile2015 Week 13: UCF vs. South Florida · L 3–44; offense 8.7 percentile2016 Week 1: UCF vs. South Carolina State · W 38–0; offense 15.9 percentile2016 Week 2: UCF at Michigan · L 14–51; offense 48.8 percentile2016 Week 3: UCF vs. Maryland · L 24–30; offense 15.3 percentile2016 Week 4: UCF at Florida International · W 53–14; offense 75.5 percentile2016 Week 5: UCF at East Carolina · W 47–29; offense 7.8 percentile2016 Week 7: UCF vs. Temple · L 25–26; offense 29.2 percentile2016 Week 8: UCF at UConn · W 24–16; offense 17.0 percentile2016 Week 9: UCF at Houston · L 24–31; offense 12.5 percentile2016 Week 10: UCF vs. Tulane · W 37–6; offense 29.6 percentile2016 Week 11: UCF vs. Cincinnati · W 24–3; offense 11.2 percentile2016 Week 12: UCF vs. Tulsa · L 20–35; offense 3.8 percentile2016 Week 1: UCF vs. Arkansas State · L 13–31; offense 0.9 percentile2017 Week 1: UCF vs. Florida International · W 61–17; offense 72.3 percentile2017 Week 4: UCF at Maryland · W 38–10; offense 43.5 percentile2017 Week 5: UCF vs. Memphis · W 40–13; offense 86.1 percentile2017 Week 6: UCF at Cincinnati · W 51–23; offense 100.0 percentile2017 Week 7: UCF vs. East Carolina · W 63–21; offense 76.2 percentile2017 Week 8: UCF at Navy · W 31–21; offense 77.6 percentile2017 Week 9: UCF vs. Austin Peay · W 73–33; offense 78.7 percentile2017 Week 10: UCF at SMU · W 31–24; offense 33.1 percentile2017 Week 11: UCF vs. UConn · W 49–24; offense 41.3 percentile2017 Week 12: UCF at Temple · W 45–19; offense 55.2 percentile2017 Week 13: UCF vs. South Florida · W 49–42; offense 77.7 percentile2017 Week 14: UCF vs. Memphis · W 62–55; offense 95.4 percentile2017 Week 1: UCF vs. Auburn · W 34–27; offense 67.0 percentile2018 Week 1: UCF at UConn · W 56–17; offense 98.7 percentile2018 Week 2: UCF vs. South Carolina State · W 38–0; offense 57.4 percentile2018 Week 4: UCF vs. Florida Atlantic · W 56–36; offense 95.0 percentile2018 Week 5: UCF vs. Pittsburgh · W 45–14; offense 95.0 percentile2018 Week 6: UCF vs. SMU · W 48–20; offense 89.0 percentile2018 Week 7: UCF at Memphis · W 31–30; offense 38.1 percentile2018 Week 8: UCF at East Carolina · W 37–10; offense 53.6 percentile2018 Week 10: UCF vs. Temple · W 52–40; offense 90.2 percentile2018 Week 11: UCF vs. Navy · W 35–24; offense 89.8 percentile2018 Week 12: UCF vs. Cincinnati · W 38–13; offense 95.4 percentile2018 Week 13: UCF at South Florida · W 38–10; offense 85.2 percentile2018 Week 14: UCF vs. Memphis · W 56–41; offense 91.9 percentile2018 Week 1: UCF vs. LSU · L 32–40; offense 65.5 percentile2019 Week 1: UCF vs. Florida A&M · W 62–0; offense 52.9 percentile2019 Week 2: UCF at Florida Atlantic · W 48–14; offense 97.0 percentile2019 Week 3: UCF vs. Stanford · W 45–27; offense 72.3 percentile2019 Week 4: UCF at Pittsburgh · L 34–35; offense 44.9 percentile2019 Week 5: UCF vs. UConn · W 56–21; offense 80.9 percentile2019 Week 6: UCF at Cincinnati · L 24–27; offense 37.9 percentile2019 Week 8: UCF vs. East Carolina · W 41–28; offense 41.5 percentile2019 Week 9: UCF at Temple · W 63–21; offense 98.9 percentile2019 Week 10: UCF vs. Houston · W 44–29; offense 58.2 percentile2019 Week 11: UCF at Tulsa · L 31–34; offense 70.4 percentile2019 Week 13: UCF at Tulane · W 34–31; offense 44.8 percentile2019 Week 14: UCF vs. South Florida · W 34–7; offense 82.2 percentile2019 Week 1: UCF vs. Marshall · W 48–25; offense 80.1 percentile2020 Week 3: UCF at Georgia Tech · W 49–21; offense 86.0 percentile2020 Week 4: UCF at East Carolina · W 51–28; offense 82.5 percentile2020 Week 5: UCF vs. Tulsa · L 26–34; offense 37.8 percentile2020 Week 7: UCF at Memphis · L 49–50; offense 87.9 percentile2020 Week 8: UCF vs. Tulane · W 51–34; offense 97.0 percentile2020 Week 9: UCF at Houston · W 44–21; offense 98.2 percentile2020 Week 11: UCF vs. Temple · W 38–13; offense 61.0 percentile2020 Week 12: UCF vs. Cincinnati · L 33–36; offense 69.3 percentile2020 Week 13: UCF at South Florida · W 58–46; offense 78.3 percentile2020 Week 1: UCF vs. BYU · L 23–49; offense 62.0 percentile2021 Week 1: UCF vs. Boise State · W 36–31; offense 96.0 percentile2021 Week 2: UCF vs. Bethune-Cookman · W 63–14; offense 94.3 percentile2021 Week 3: UCF at Louisville · L 35–42; offense 78.5 percentile2021 Week 5: UCF at Navy · L 30–34; offense 56.9 percentile2021 Week 6: UCF vs. East Carolina · W 20–16; offense 38.1 percentile2021 Week 7: UCF at Cincinnati · L 21–56; offense 36.8 percentile2021 Week 8: UCF vs. Memphis · W 24–7; offense 26.5 percentile2021 Week 9: UCF at Temple · W 49–7; offense 77.5 percentile2021 Week 10: UCF vs. Tulane · W 14–10; offense 3.1 percentile2021 Week 11: UCF at SMU · L 28–55; offense 61.2 percentile2021 Week 12: UCF vs. UConn · W 49–17; offense 82.9 percentile2021 Week 13: UCF vs. South Florida · W 17–13; offense 2.6 percentile2021 Week 1: UCF vs. Florida · W 29–17; offense 52.8 percentile2022 Week 2: UCF vs. Louisville · L 14–20; offense 40.4 percentile2022 Week 3: UCF at Florida Atlantic · W 40–14; offense 90.6 percentile2022 Week 4: UCF vs. Georgia Tech · W 27–10; offense 36.3 percentile2022 Week 6: UCF vs. SMU · W 41–19; offense 38.4 percentile2022 Week 7: UCF vs. Temple · W 70–13; offense 92.2 percentile2022 Week 8: UCF at East Carolina · L 13–34; offense 56.1 percentile2022 Week 9: UCF vs. Cincinnati · W 25–21; offense 66.4 percentile2022 Week 10: UCF at Memphis · W 35–28; offense 76.0 percentile2022 Week 11: UCF at Tulane · W 38–31; offense 74.7 percentile2022 Week 12: UCF vs. Navy · L 14–17; offense 28.4 percentile2022 Week 13: UCF at South Florida · W 46–39; offense 75.2 percentile2022 Week 14: UCF at Tulane · L 28–45; offense 42.0 percentile2022 Week 1: UCF vs. Duke · L 13–30; offense 39.3 percentile2023 Week 1: UCF vs. Kent State · W 56–6; offense 98.8 percentile2023 Week 3: UCF vs. Villanova · W 48–14; offense 51.1 percentile2023 Week 4: UCF at Kansas State · L 31–44; offense 84.3 percentile2023 Week 5: UCF vs. Baylor · L 35–36; offense 63.5 percentile2023 Week 6: UCF at Kansas · L 22–51; offense 77.8 percentile2023 Week 8: UCF at Oklahoma · L 29–31; offense 39.1 percentile2023 Week 9: UCF vs. West Virginia · L 28–41; offense 83.5 percentile2023 Week 10: UCF at Cincinnati · W 28–26; offense 59.6 percentile2023 Week 11: UCF vs. Oklahoma State · W 45–3; offense 74.7 percentile2023 Week 12: UCF at Texas Tech · L 23–24; offense 89.7 percentile2023 Week 13: UCF vs. Houston · W 27–13; offense 86.1 percentile2023 Week 1: UCF vs. Georgia Tech · L 17–30; offense 41.3 percentile2024 Week 1: UCF vs. New Hampshire · W 57–3; offense 52.8 percentile2024 Week 2: UCF vs. Sam Houston · W 45–14; offense 99.6 percentile2024 Week 3: UCF at TCU · W 35–34; offense 91.4 percentile2024 Week 5: UCF vs. Colorado · L 21–48; offense 60.9 percentile2024 Week 6: UCF at Florida · L 13–24; offense 24.8 percentile2024 Week 7: UCF vs. Cincinnati · L 13–19; offense 45.1 percentile2024 Week 8: UCF at Iowa State · L 35–38; offense 69.3 percentile2024 Week 9: UCF vs. BYU · L 24–37; offense 60.4 percentile2024 Week 10: UCF vs. Arizona · W 56–12; offense 98.5 percentile2024 Week 11: UCF at Arizona State · L 31–35; offense 85.8 percentile2024 Week 13: UCF at West Virginia · L 21–31; offense 22.0 percentile2024 Week 14: UCF vs. Utah · L 14–28; offense 38.8 percentile2025 Week 1: UCF vs. Jacksonville State · W 17–10; offense 41.9 percentile2025 Week 2: UCF vs. North Carolina A&T · W 68–7; offense 74.9 percentile2025 Week 4: UCF vs. North Carolina · W 34–9; offense 74.3 percentile2025 Week 6: UCF vs. Kansas · L 20–27; offense 6.7 percentile2025 Week 7: UCF at Cincinnati · L 11–20; offense 18.9 percentile2025 Week 8: UCF vs. West Virginia · W 45–13; offense 52.0 percentile2025 Week 10: UCF at Baylor · L 3–30; offense 6.1 percentile2025 Week 11: UCF vs. Houston · L 27–30; offense 47.7 percentile2025 Week 12: UCF at Texas Tech · L 9–48; offense 52.5 percentile2025 Week 13: UCF vs. Oklahoma State · W 17–14; offense 25.3 percentile2025 Week 14: UCF at BYU · L 21–41; offense 71.6 percentile2026 Week 1: UCF vs. Bethune-Cookman · W 73–6; offense 83.6 percentile2014 offense season mean: 37.0 percentile2015 offense season mean: 9.6 percentile2016 offense season mean: 17.3 percentile2017 offense season mean: 76.9 percentile2018 offense season mean: 85.6 percentile2019 offense season mean: 71.7 percentile2020 offense season mean: 80.9 percentile2021 offense season mean: 53.9 percentile2022 offense season mean: 60.4 percentile2023 offense season mean: 75.1 percentile2024 offense season mean: 70.5 percentile2025 offense season mean: 39.8 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 45.2 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 83.6 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: UCF vs. Penn State · L 24–26; defense 28.2 percentile2014 Week 3: UCF at Missouri · L 10–38; defense 8.2 percentile2014 Week 4: UCF vs. Bethune-Cookman · W 41–7; defense 84.1 percentile2014 Week 6: UCF at Houston · W 17–12; defense 77.4 percentile2014 Week 7: UCF vs. BYU · W 31–24; defense 87.7 percentile2014 Week 8: UCF vs. Tulane · W 20–13; defense 88.1 percentile2014 Week 9: UCF vs. Temple · W 34–14; defense 87.4 percentile2014 Week 10: UCF at UConn · L 29–37; defense 69.2 percentile2014 Week 12: UCF vs. Tulsa · W 31–7; defense 84.9 percentile2014 Week 13: UCF vs. SMU · W 53–7; defense 80.2 percentile2014 Week 14: UCF at South Florida · W 16–0; defense 94.2 percentile2014 Week 15: UCF at East Carolina · W 32–30; defense 90.5 percentile2014 Week 1: UCF vs. NC State · L 27–34; defense 55.0 percentile2015 Week 1: UCF vs. Florida International · L 14–15; defense 57.4 percentile2015 Week 2: UCF at Stanford · L 7–31; defense 81.5 percentile2015 Week 3: UCF vs. Furman · L 15–16; defense 35.6 percentile2015 Week 4: UCF at South Carolina · L 14–31; defense 38.3 percentile2015 Week 5: UCF at Tulane · L 31–45; defense 32.9 percentile2015 Week 6: UCF vs. UConn · L 13–40; defense 11.4 percentile2015 Week 7: UCF at Temple · L 16–30; defense 31.5 percentile2015 Week 8: UCF vs. Houston · L 10–59; defense 7.3 percentile2015 Week 9: UCF at Cincinnati · L 7–52; defense 1.9 percentile2015 Week 10: UCF at Tulsa · L 30–45; defense 9.1 percentile2015 Week 12: UCF vs. East Carolina · L 7–44; defense 10.3 percentile2015 Week 13: UCF vs. South Florida · L 3–44; defense 15.4 percentile2016 Week 1: UCF vs. South Carolina State · W 38–0; defense 74.2 percentile2016 Week 2: UCF at Michigan · L 14–51; defense 52.1 percentile2016 Week 3: UCF vs. Maryland · L 24–30; defense 59.6 percentile2016 Week 4: UCF at Florida International · W 53–14; defense 96.0 percentile2016 Week 5: UCF at East Carolina · W 47–29; defense 87.1 percentile2016 Week 7: UCF vs. Temple · L 25–26; defense 75.4 percentile2016 Week 8: UCF at UConn · W 24–16; defense 51.1 percentile2016 Week 9: UCF at Houston · L 24–31; defense 79.2 percentile2016 Week 10: UCF vs. Tulane · W 37–6; defense 49.1 percentile2016 Week 11: UCF vs. Cincinnati · W 24–3; defense 73.7 percentile2016 Week 12: UCF vs. Tulsa · L 20–35; defense 69.9 percentile2016 Week 1: UCF vs. Arkansas State · L 13–31; defense 95.2 percentile2017 Week 1: UCF vs. Florida International · W 61–17; defense 67.1 percentile2017 Week 4: UCF at Maryland · W 38–10; defense 95.6 percentile2017 Week 5: UCF vs. Memphis · W 40–13; defense 92.1 percentile2017 Week 6: UCF at Cincinnati · W 51–23; defense 32.2 percentile2017 Week 7: UCF vs. East Carolina · W 63–21; defense 62.9 percentile2017 Week 8: UCF at Navy · W 31–21; defense 67.7 percentile2017 Week 9: UCF vs. Austin Peay · W 73–33; defense 10.5 percentile2017 Week 10: UCF at SMU · W 31–24; defense 77.4 percentile2017 Week 11: UCF vs. UConn · W 49–24; defense 60.9 percentile2017 Week 12: UCF at Temple · W 45–19; defense 61.3 percentile2017 Week 13: UCF vs. South Florida · W 49–42; defense 49.5 percentile2017 Week 14: UCF vs. Memphis · W 62–55; defense 20.0 percentile2017 Week 1: UCF vs. Auburn · W 34–27; defense 70.3 percentile2018 Week 1: UCF at UConn · W 56–17; defense 40.6 percentile2018 Week 2: UCF vs. South Carolina State · W 38–0; defense 73.7 percentile2018 Week 4: UCF vs. Florida Atlantic · W 56–36; defense 8.0 percentile2018 Week 5: UCF vs. Pittsburgh · W 45–14; defense 77.3 percentile2018 Week 6: UCF vs. SMU · W 48–20; defense 86.8 percentile2018 Week 7: UCF at Memphis · W 31–30; defense 81.1 percentile2018 Week 8: UCF at East Carolina · W 37–10; defense 65.6 percentile2018 Week 10: UCF vs. Temple · W 52–40; defense 18.5 percentile2018 Week 11: UCF vs. Navy · W 35–24; defense 14.1 percentile2018 Week 12: UCF vs. Cincinnati · W 38–13; defense 70.9 percentile2018 Week 13: UCF at South Florida · W 38–10; defense 89.5 percentile2018 Week 14: UCF vs. Memphis · W 56–41; defense 34.7 percentile2018 Week 1: UCF vs. LSU · L 32–40; defense 27.5 percentile2019 Week 1: UCF vs. Florida A&M · W 62–0; defense 94.2 percentile2019 Week 2: UCF at Florida Atlantic · W 48–14; defense 99.1 percentile2019 Week 3: UCF vs. Stanford · W 45–27; defense 78.1 percentile2019 Week 4: UCF at Pittsburgh · L 34–35; defense 32.8 percentile2019 Week 5: UCF vs. UConn · W 56–21; defense 64.1 percentile2019 Week 6: UCF at Cincinnati · L 24–27; defense 91.0 percentile2019 Week 8: UCF vs. East Carolina · W 41–28; defense 55.4 percentile2019 Week 9: UCF at Temple · W 63–21; defense 86.2 percentile2019 Week 10: UCF vs. Houston · W 44–29; defense 71.4 percentile2019 Week 11: UCF at Tulsa · L 31–34; defense 63.4 percentile2019 Week 13: UCF at Tulane · W 34–31; defense 87.0 percentile2019 Week 14: UCF vs. South Florida · W 34–7; defense 84.8 percentile2019 Week 1: UCF vs. Marshall · W 48–25; defense 46.7 percentile2020 Week 3: UCF at Georgia Tech · W 49–21; defense 53.7 percentile2020 Week 4: UCF at East Carolina · W 51–28; defense 51.0 percentile2020 Week 5: UCF vs. Tulsa · L 26–34; defense 58.2 percentile2020 Week 7: UCF at Memphis · L 49–50; defense 17.6 percentile2020 Week 8: UCF vs. Tulane · W 51–34; defense 60.4 percentile2020 Week 9: UCF at Houston · W 44–21; defense 56.5 percentile2020 Week 11: UCF vs. Temple · W 38–13; defense 83.6 percentile2020 Week 12: UCF vs. Cincinnati · L 33–36; defense 70.6 percentile2020 Week 13: UCF at South Florida · W 58–46; defense 5.7 percentile2020 Week 1: UCF vs. BYU · L 23–49; defense 5.4 percentile2021 Week 1: UCF vs. Boise State · W 36–31; defense 88.7 percentile2021 Week 2: UCF vs. Bethune-Cookman · W 63–14; defense 64.7 percentile2021 Week 3: UCF at Louisville · L 35–42; defense 50.1 percentile2021 Week 5: UCF at Navy · L 30–34; defense 13.2 percentile2021 Week 6: UCF vs. East Carolina · W 20–16; defense 75.2 percentile2021 Week 7: UCF at Cincinnati · L 21–56; defense 8.7 percentile2021 Week 8: UCF vs. Memphis · W 24–7; defense 84.3 percentile2021 Week 9: UCF at Temple · W 49–7; defense 58.6 percentile2021 Week 10: UCF vs. Tulane · W 14–10; defense 86.4 percentile2021 Week 11: UCF at SMU · L 28–55; defense 24.7 percentile2021 Week 12: UCF vs. UConn · W 49–17; defense 37.9 percentile2021 Week 13: UCF vs. South Florida · W 17–13; defense 66.4 percentile2021 Week 1: UCF vs. Florida · W 29–17; defense 70.3 percentile2022 Week 2: UCF vs. Louisville · L 14–20; defense 62.8 percentile2022 Week 3: UCF at Florida Atlantic · W 40–14; defense 82.4 percentile2022 Week 4: UCF vs. Georgia Tech · W 27–10; defense 52.0 percentile2022 Week 6: UCF vs. SMU · W 41–19; defense 95.6 percentile2022 Week 7: UCF vs. Temple · W 70–13; defense 78.2 percentile2022 Week 8: UCF at East Carolina · L 13–34; defense 21.2 percentile2022 Week 9: UCF vs. Cincinnati · W 25–21; defense 65.7 percentile2022 Week 10: UCF at Memphis · W 35–28; defense 52.1 percentile2022 Week 11: UCF at Tulane · W 38–31; defense 56.9 percentile2022 Week 12: UCF vs. Navy · L 14–17; defense 62.4 percentile2022 Week 13: UCF at South Florida · W 46–39; defense 14.0 percentile2022 Week 14: UCF at Tulane · L 28–45; defense 29.0 percentile2022 Week 1: UCF vs. Duke · L 13–30; defense 69.3 percentile2023 Week 1: UCF vs. Kent State · W 56–6; defense 74.7 percentile2023 Week 3: UCF vs. Villanova · W 48–14; defense 72.0 percentile2023 Week 4: UCF at Kansas State · L 31–44; defense 12.9 percentile2023 Week 5: UCF vs. Baylor · L 35–36; defense 5.4 percentile2023 Week 6: UCF at Kansas · L 22–51; defense 1.7 percentile2023 Week 8: UCF at Oklahoma · L 29–31; defense 79.4 percentile2023 Week 9: UCF vs. West Virginia · L 28–41; defense 8.4 percentile2023 Week 10: UCF at Cincinnati · W 28–26; defense 25.6 percentile2023 Week 11: UCF vs. Oklahoma State · W 45–3; defense 98.5 percentile2023 Week 12: UCF at Texas Tech · L 23–24; defense 17.7 percentile2023 Week 13: UCF vs. Houston · W 27–13; defense 68.1 percentile2023 Week 1: UCF vs. Georgia Tech · L 17–30; defense 26.9 percentile2024 Week 1: UCF vs. New Hampshire · W 57–3; defense 81.8 percentile2024 Week 2: UCF vs. Sam Houston · W 45–14; defense 69.0 percentile2024 Week 3: UCF at TCU · W 35–34; defense 22.8 percentile2024 Week 5: UCF vs. Colorado · L 21–48; defense 37.0 percentile2024 Week 6: UCF at Florida · L 13–24; defense 45.1 percentile2024 Week 7: UCF vs. Cincinnati · L 13–19; defense 76.0 percentile2024 Week 8: UCF at Iowa State · L 35–38; defense 38.5 percentile2024 Week 9: UCF vs. BYU · L 24–37; defense 12.1 percentile2024 Week 10: UCF vs. Arizona · W 56–12; defense 89.2 percentile2024 Week 11: UCF at Arizona State · L 31–35; defense 74.2 percentile2024 Week 13: UCF at West Virginia · L 21–31; defense 57.2 percentile2024 Week 14: UCF vs. Utah · L 14–28; defense 79.8 percentile2025 Week 1: UCF vs. Jacksonville State · W 17–10; defense 92.3 percentile2025 Week 2: UCF vs. North Carolina A&T · W 68–7; defense 70.5 percentile2025 Week 4: UCF vs. North Carolina · W 34–9; defense 59.1 percentile2025 Week 6: UCF vs. Kansas · L 20–27; defense 56.3 percentile2025 Week 7: UCF at Cincinnati · L 11–20; defense 87.3 percentile2025 Week 8: UCF vs. West Virginia · W 45–13; defense 65.1 percentile2025 Week 10: UCF at Baylor · L 3–30; defense 27.2 percentile2025 Week 11: UCF vs. Houston · L 27–30; defense 30.7 percentile2025 Week 12: UCF at Texas Tech · L 9–48; defense 5.1 percentile2025 Week 13: UCF vs. Oklahoma State · W 17–14; defense 47.9 percentile2025 Week 14: UCF at BYU · L 21–41; defense 14.5 percentile2026 Week 1: UCF vs. Bethune-Cookman · W 73–6; defense 73.6 percentile2014 defense season mean: 74.7 percentile2015 defense season mean: 23.0 percentile2016 defense season mean: 75.2 percentile2017 defense season mean: 61.0 percentile2018 defense season mean: 53.0 percentile2019 defense season mean: 78.4 percentile2020 defense season mean: 42.7 percentile2021 defense season mean: 56.4 percentile2022 defense season mean: 58.5 percentile2023 defense season mean: 37.8 percentile2024 defense season mean: 57.8 percentile2025 defense season mean: 50.1 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 52.9 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 73.6 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2016Scott Frost
2018Josh Heupel
2021Gus Malzahn
2025Scott Frost

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateScott Frost1
45.2 estimate83.6 games-only average
52.9 estimate73.6 games-only average
2025Scott FrostCoaching change1139.850.1
2024Gus Malzahn1270.557.8
2023Gus Malzahn1275.137.8
2022Gus Malzahn1360.458.5
2021Gus MalzahnCoaching change1353.956.4
2020Josh Heupel1080.942.7
2019Josh Heupel1371.778.4
2018Josh HeupelCoaching change1385.653.0
2017Scott Frost1376.961.0
2016Scott FrostCoaching change1217.375.2
2015George O'Leary129.623.0
2014George O'Leary1337.074.7