9.2 average through 4 games
50.0 prior · 8 equivalent games2014–2026 performance history
Sacramento State over time
Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.
39.0 average through 4 games
50.0 prior · 8 equivalent gamesThe trajectory
Game and Season Unit Ratings
Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
How to read 2026
The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.
The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.
2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)
No 2025 FBS baseline: Sacramento State uses 50, the national midpoint, as its 8-game prior.
Season record
Every annual grade and coach
Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.
| Season | Head coach | Games | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Live estimate | Alonzo Carter | 4 | 32.9 estimate9.2 games-only average | 46.3 estimate39.0 games-only average |