2014–2026 performance history

Penn State over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

Big TenHead coach: Matt CampbellView Penn State games →
Offense · 2026 estimate63.1/100

55.0 average through 2 games

65.0 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate70.2/100

92.5 average through 2 games

61.9 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

Penn State individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.Franklin · ’14–’24James Franklin, 2014–2024SmithTerry Smith, 2025CampbellMatt Campbell, 2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Penn State vs. UCF · W 26–24; offense 73.4 percentile2014 Week 2: Penn State vs. Akron · W 21–3; offense 37.2 percentile2014 Week 3: Penn State at Rutgers · W 13–10; offense 17.3 percentile2014 Week 4: Penn State vs. Massachusetts · W 48–7; offense 78.5 percentile2014 Week 5: Penn State vs. Northwestern · L 6–29; offense 3.9 percentile2014 Week 7: Penn State at Michigan · L 13–18; offense 10.6 percentile2014 Week 9: Penn State vs. Ohio State · L 24–31; offense 7.7 percentile2014 Week 10: Penn State vs. Maryland · L 19–20; offense 1.6 percentile2014 Week 11: Penn State at Indiana · W 13–7; offense 9.4 percentile2014 Week 12: Penn State vs. Temple · W 30–13; offense 62.8 percentile2014 Week 13: Penn State at Illinois · L 14–16; offense 8.7 percentile2014 Week 14: Penn State vs. Michigan State · L 10–34; offense 21.4 percentile2014 Week 1: Penn State vs. Boston College · W 31–30; offense 46.9 percentile2015 Week 1: Penn State at Temple · L 10–27; offense 31.5 percentile2015 Week 2: Penn State vs. Buffalo · W 27–14; offense 27.5 percentile2015 Week 3: Penn State vs. Rutgers · W 28–3; offense 37.2 percentile2015 Week 4: Penn State vs. San Diego State · W 37–21; offense 46.4 percentile2015 Week 5: Penn State vs. Army · W 20–14; offense 16.0 percentile2015 Week 6: Penn State vs. Indiana · W 29–7; offense 36.4 percentile2015 Week 7: Penn State at Ohio State · L 10–38; offense 61.2 percentile2015 Week 8: Penn State vs. Maryland · W 31–30; offense 31.4 percentile2015 Week 9: Penn State vs. Illinois · W 39–0; offense 61.0 percentile2015 Week 10: Penn State at Northwestern · L 21–23; offense 47.4 percentile2015 Week 12: Penn State vs. Michigan · L 16–28; offense 20.0 percentile2015 Week 13: Penn State at Michigan State · L 16–55; offense 80.7 percentile2015 Week 1: Penn State vs. Georgia · L 17–24; offense 38.4 percentile2016 Week 1: Penn State vs. Kent State · W 33–13; offense 29.8 percentile2016 Week 2: Penn State at Pittsburgh · L 39–42; offense 26.7 percentile2016 Week 3: Penn State vs. Temple · W 34–27; offense 63.1 percentile2016 Week 4: Penn State at Michigan · L 10–49; offense 35.1 percentile2016 Week 5: Penn State vs. Minnesota · W 29–26; offense 46.1 percentile2016 Week 6: Penn State vs. Maryland · W 38–14; offense 65.5 percentile2016 Week 8: Penn State vs. Ohio State · W 24–21; offense 30.2 percentile2016 Week 9: Penn State at Purdue · W 62–24; offense 69.8 percentile2016 Week 10: Penn State vs. Iowa · W 41–14; offense 98.7 percentile2016 Week 11: Penn State at Indiana · W 45–31; offense 43.5 percentile2016 Week 12: Penn State at Rutgers · W 39–0; offense 78.3 percentile2016 Week 13: Penn State vs. Michigan State · W 45–12; offense 64.5 percentile2016 Week 14: Penn State vs. Wisconsin · W 38–31; offense 66.5 percentile2016 Week 1: Penn State vs. USC · L 49–52; offense 83.9 percentile2017 Week 1: Penn State vs. Akron · W 52–0; offense 71.8 percentile2017 Week 2: Penn State vs. Pittsburgh · W 33–14; offense 59.3 percentile2017 Week 3: Penn State vs. Georgia State · W 56–0; offense 81.9 percentile2017 Week 4: Penn State at Iowa · W 21–19; offense 62.6 percentile2017 Week 5: Penn State vs. Indiana · W 45–14; offense 33.0 percentile2017 Week 6: Penn State at Northwestern · W 31–7; offense 47.8 percentile2017 Week 8: Penn State vs. Michigan · W 42–13; offense 98.8 percentile2017 Week 9: Penn State at Ohio State · L 38–39; offense 52.6 percentile2017 Week 10: Penn State at Michigan State · L 24–27; offense 66.9 percentile2017 Week 11: Penn State vs. Rutgers · W 35–6; offense 51.8 percentile2017 Week 12: Penn State vs. Nebraska · W 56–44; offense 98.9 percentile2017 Week 13: Penn State at Maryland · W 66–3; offense 95.3 percentile2017 Week 1: Penn State vs. Washington · W 35–28; offense 88.6 percentile2018 Week 1: Penn State vs. App State · W 45–38; offense 86.8 percentile2018 Week 2: Penn State at Pittsburgh · W 51–6; offense 52.4 percentile2018 Week 3: Penn State vs. Kent State · W 63–10; offense 94.9 percentile2018 Week 4: Penn State at Illinois · W 63–24; offense 98.7 percentile2018 Week 5: Penn State vs. Ohio State · L 26–27; offense 45.9 percentile2018 Week 7: Penn State vs. Michigan State · L 17–21; offense 62.5 percentile2018 Week 8: Penn State at Indiana · W 33–28; offense 36.4 percentile2018 Week 9: Penn State vs. Iowa · W 30–24; offense 60.6 percentile2018 Week 10: Penn State at Michigan · L 7–42; offense 43.3 percentile2018 Week 11: Penn State vs. Wisconsin · W 22–10; offense 41.8 percentile2018 Week 12: Penn State at Rutgers · W 20–7; offense 34.4 percentile2018 Week 13: Penn State vs. Maryland · W 38–3; offense 95.1 percentile2018 Week 1: Penn State vs. Kentucky · L 24–27; offense 62.1 percentile2019 Week 1: Penn State vs. Idaho · W 79–7; offense 73.0 percentile2019 Week 2: Penn State vs. Buffalo · W 45–13; offense 60.0 percentile2019 Week 3: Penn State vs. Pittsburgh · W 17–10; offense 66.2 percentile2019 Week 5: Penn State at Maryland · W 59–0; offense 94.2 percentile2019 Week 6: Penn State vs. Purdue · W 35–7; offense 61.3 percentile2019 Week 7: Penn State at Iowa · W 17–12; offense 57.7 percentile2019 Week 8: Penn State vs. Michigan · W 28–21; offense 43.4 percentile2019 Week 9: Penn State at Michigan State · W 28–7; offense 63.0 percentile2019 Week 11: Penn State at Minnesota · L 26–31; offense 89.6 percentile2019 Week 12: Penn State vs. Indiana · W 34–27; offense 62.4 percentile2019 Week 13: Penn State at Ohio State · L 17–28; offense 62.5 percentile2019 Week 14: Penn State vs. Rutgers · W 27–6; offense 38.0 percentile2019 Week 1: Penn State vs. Memphis · W 53–39; offense 97.0 percentile2020 Week 8: Penn State at Indiana · L 35–36; offense 78.7 percentile2020 Week 9: Penn State vs. Ohio State · L 25–38; offense 42.9 percentile2020 Week 10: Penn State vs. Maryland · L 19–35; offense 26.4 percentile2020 Week 11: Penn State at Nebraska · L 23–30; offense 68.0 percentile2020 Week 12: Penn State vs. Iowa · L 21–41; offense 48.3 percentile2020 Week 13: Penn State at Michigan · W 27–17; offense 52.7 percentile2020 Week 14: Penn State at Rutgers · W 23–7; offense 27.0 percentile2020 Week 15: Penn State vs. Michigan State · W 39–24; offense 47.5 percentile2020 Week 16: Penn State vs. Illinois · W 56–21; offense 83.9 percentile2021 Week 1: Penn State at Wisconsin · W 16–10; offense 47.0 percentile2021 Week 2: Penn State vs. Ball State · W 44–13; offense 78.5 percentile2021 Week 3: Penn State vs. Auburn · W 28–20; offense 43.5 percentile2021 Week 4: Penn State vs. Villanova · W 38–17; offense 22.0 percentile2021 Week 5: Penn State vs. Indiana · W 24–0; offense 17.3 percentile2021 Week 6: Penn State at Iowa · L 20–23; offense 23.4 percentile2021 Week 8: Penn State vs. Illinois · L 18–20; offense 3.4 percentile2021 Week 9: Penn State at Ohio State · L 24–33; offense 45.3 percentile2021 Week 10: Penn State at Maryland · W 31–14; offense 31.2 percentile2021 Week 11: Penn State vs. Michigan · L 17–21; offense 35.0 percentile2021 Week 12: Penn State vs. Rutgers · W 28–0; offense 17.5 percentile2021 Week 13: Penn State at Michigan State · L 27–30; offense 31.0 percentile2021 Week 1: Penn State vs. Arkansas · L 10–24; offense 39.3 percentile2022 Week 1: Penn State at Purdue · W 35–31; offense 51.8 percentile2022 Week 2: Penn State vs. Ohio · W 46–10; offense 80.8 percentile2022 Week 3: Penn State at Auburn · W 41–12; offense 80.2 percentile2022 Week 4: Penn State vs. Central Michigan · W 33–14; offense 58.4 percentile2022 Week 5: Penn State vs. Northwestern · W 17–7; offense 16.1 percentile2022 Week 7: Penn State at Michigan · L 17–41; offense 61.1 percentile2022 Week 8: Penn State vs. Minnesota · W 45–17; offense 93.4 percentile2022 Week 9: Penn State vs. Ohio State · L 31–44; offense 75.4 percentile2022 Week 10: Penn State at Indiana · W 45–14; offense 66.1 percentile2022 Week 11: Penn State vs. Maryland · W 30–0; offense 79.2 percentile2022 Week 13: Penn State vs. Michigan State · W 35–16; offense 51.1 percentile2022 Week 1: Penn State vs. Utah · W 35–21; offense 85.0 percentile2023 Week 2: Penn State vs. Delaware · W 63–7; offense 62.1 percentile2023 Week 3: Penn State at Illinois · W 30–13; offense 42.9 percentile2023 Week 4: Penn State vs. Iowa · W 31–0; offense 75.0 percentile2023 Week 5: Penn State at Northwestern · W 41–13; offense 66.4 percentile2023 Week 7: Penn State vs. Massachusetts · W 63–0; offense 86.7 percentile2023 Week 8: Penn State at Ohio State · L 12–20; offense 12.8 percentile2023 Week 9: Penn State vs. Indiana · W 33–24; offense 31.8 percentile2023 Week 10: Penn State at Maryland · W 51–15; offense 92.7 percentile2023 Week 11: Penn State vs. Michigan · L 15–24; offense 54.9 percentile2023 Week 12: Penn State vs. Rutgers · W 27–6; offense 74.0 percentile2023 Week 13: Penn State vs. Michigan State · W 42–0; offense 93.4 percentile2023 Week 1: Penn State vs. Ole Miss · L 25–38; offense 60.2 percentile2024 Week 1: Penn State at West Virginia · W 34–12; offense 67.8 percentile2024 Week 2: Penn State vs. Bowling Green · W 34–27; offense 81.8 percentile2024 Week 4: Penn State vs. Kent State · W 56–0; offense 96.7 percentile2024 Week 5: Penn State vs. Illinois · W 21–7; offense 75.0 percentile2024 Week 6: Penn State vs. UCLA · W 27–11; offense 65.5 percentile2024 Week 7: Penn State at USC · W 33–30; offense 80.5 percentile2024 Week 9: Penn State at Wisconsin · W 28–13; offense 70.1 percentile2024 Week 10: Penn State vs. Ohio State · L 13–20; offense 38.0 percentile2024 Week 11: Penn State vs. Washington · W 35–6; offense 96.6 percentile2024 Week 12: Penn State at Purdue · W 49–10; offense 88.0 percentile2024 Week 13: Penn State at Minnesota · W 26–25; offense 59.3 percentile2024 Week 14: Penn State vs. Maryland · W 44–7; offense 40.6 percentile2024 Week 15: Penn State vs. Oregon · L 37–45; offense 96.6 percentile2024 Week 1: Penn State vs. SMU · W 38–10; offense 72.6 percentile2024 Week 1: Penn State vs. Boise State · W 31–14; offense 71.6 percentile2024 Week 1: Penn State vs. Notre Dame · L 24–27; offense 81.2 percentile2025 Week 1: Penn State vs. Nevada · W 46–11; offense 63.3 percentile2025 Week 2: Penn State vs. Florida International · W 34–0; offense 47.3 percentile2025 Week 3: Penn State vs. Villanova · W 52–6; offense 50.1 percentile2025 Week 5: Penn State vs. Oregon · L 24–30; offense 65.9 percentile2025 Week 6: Penn State at UCLA · L 37–42; offense 35.9 percentile2025 Week 7: Penn State vs. Northwestern · L 21–22; offense 56.6 percentile2025 Week 8: Penn State at Iowa · L 24–25; offense 35.2 percentile2025 Week 10: Penn State at Ohio State · L 14–38; offense 49.3 percentile2025 Week 11: Penn State vs. Indiana · L 24–27; offense 70.6 percentile2025 Week 12: Penn State at Michigan State · W 28–10; offense 61.3 percentile2025 Week 13: Penn State vs. Nebraska · W 37–10; offense 99.5 percentile2025 Week 14: Penn State at Rutgers · W 40–36; offense 79.4 percentile2025 Week 1: Penn State vs. Clemson · W 22–10; offense 75.5 percentile2026 Week 1: Penn State vs. Marshall · W 45–0; offense 78.2 percentile2026 Week 2: Penn State at Temple · W 27–9; offense 30.0 percentile2014 offense season mean: 22.9 percentile2015 offense season mean: 40.6 percentile2016 offense season mean: 60.5 percentile2017 offense season mean: 76.8 percentile2018 offense season mean: 68.8 percentile2019 offense season mean: 70.4 percentile2020 offense season mean: 53.5 percentile2021 offense season mean: 31.1 percentile2022 offense season mean: 68.4 percentile2023 offense season mean: 65.3 percentile2024 offense season mean: 77.8 percentile2025 offense season mean: 65.0 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 63.1 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 55.0 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Penn State vs. UCF · W 26–24; defense 65.8 percentile2014 Week 2: Penn State vs. Akron · W 21–3; defense 85.4 percentile2014 Week 3: Penn State at Rutgers · W 13–10; defense 89.6 percentile2014 Week 4: Penn State vs. Massachusetts · W 48–7; defense 99.0 percentile2014 Week 5: Penn State vs. Northwestern · L 6–29; defense 58.4 percentile2014 Week 7: Penn State at Michigan · L 13–18; defense 83.2 percentile2014 Week 9: Penn State vs. Ohio State · L 24–31; defense 96.2 percentile2014 Week 10: Penn State vs. Maryland · L 19–20; defense 95.9 percentile2014 Week 11: Penn State at Indiana · W 13–7; defense 98.8 percentile2014 Week 12: Penn State vs. Temple · W 30–13; defense 67.8 percentile2014 Week 13: Penn State at Illinois · L 14–16; defense 94.5 percentile2014 Week 14: Penn State vs. Michigan State · L 10–34; defense 81.2 percentile2014 Week 1: Penn State vs. Boston College · W 31–30; defense 49.7 percentile2015 Week 1: Penn State at Temple · L 10–27; defense 78.6 percentile2015 Week 2: Penn State vs. Buffalo · W 27–14; defense 77.3 percentile2015 Week 3: Penn State vs. Rutgers · W 28–3; defense 90.9 percentile2015 Week 4: Penn State vs. San Diego State · W 37–21; defense 93.7 percentile2015 Week 5: Penn State vs. Army · W 20–14; defense 44.5 percentile2015 Week 6: Penn State vs. Indiana · W 29–7; defense 96.8 percentile2015 Week 7: Penn State at Ohio State · L 10–38; defense 39.9 percentile2015 Week 8: Penn State vs. Maryland · W 31–30; defense 27.1 percentile2015 Week 9: Penn State vs. Illinois · W 39–0; defense 96.9 percentile2015 Week 10: Penn State at Northwestern · L 21–23; defense 51.8 percentile2015 Week 12: Penn State vs. Michigan · L 16–28; defense 53.8 percentile2015 Week 13: Penn State at Michigan State · L 16–55; defense 2.5 percentile2015 Week 1: Penn State vs. Georgia · L 17–24; defense 74.1 percentile2016 Week 1: Penn State vs. Kent State · W 33–13; defense 70.2 percentile2016 Week 2: Penn State at Pittsburgh · L 39–42; defense 70.3 percentile2016 Week 3: Penn State vs. Temple · W 34–27; defense 88.7 percentile2016 Week 4: Penn State at Michigan · L 10–49; defense 9.7 percentile2016 Week 5: Penn State vs. Minnesota · W 29–26; defense 36.4 percentile2016 Week 6: Penn State vs. Maryland · W 38–14; defense 68.6 percentile2016 Week 8: Penn State vs. Ohio State · W 24–21; defense 89.6 percentile2016 Week 9: Penn State at Purdue · W 62–24; defense 68.0 percentile2016 Week 10: Penn State vs. Iowa · W 41–14; defense 82.9 percentile2016 Week 11: Penn State at Indiana · W 45–31; defense 54.4 percentile2016 Week 12: Penn State at Rutgers · W 39–0; defense 99.2 percentile2016 Week 13: Penn State vs. Michigan State · W 45–12; defense 77.9 percentile2016 Week 14: Penn State vs. Wisconsin · W 38–31; defense 47.7 percentile2016 Week 1: Penn State vs. USC · L 49–52; defense 39.3 percentile2017 Week 1: Penn State vs. Akron · W 52–0; defense 98.0 percentile2017 Week 2: Penn State vs. Pittsburgh · W 33–14; defense 58.0 percentile2017 Week 3: Penn State vs. Georgia State · W 56–0; defense 63.0 percentile2017 Week 4: Penn State at Iowa · W 21–19; defense 68.3 percentile2017 Week 5: Penn State vs. Indiana · W 45–14; defense 55.6 percentile2017 Week 6: Penn State at Northwestern · W 31–7; defense 98.8 percentile2017 Week 8: Penn State vs. Michigan · W 42–13; defense 55.1 percentile2017 Week 9: Penn State at Ohio State · L 38–39; defense 48.9 percentile2017 Week 10: Penn State at Michigan State · L 24–27; defense 36.4 percentile2017 Week 11: Penn State vs. Rutgers · W 35–6; defense 70.9 percentile2017 Week 12: Penn State vs. Nebraska · W 56–44; defense 39.1 percentile2017 Week 13: Penn State at Maryland · W 66–3; defense 93.9 percentile2017 Week 1: Penn State vs. Washington · W 35–28; defense 71.2 percentile2018 Week 1: Penn State vs. App State · W 45–38; defense 48.5 percentile2018 Week 2: Penn State at Pittsburgh · W 51–6; defense 93.2 percentile2018 Week 3: Penn State vs. Kent State · W 63–10; defense 77.3 percentile2018 Week 4: Penn State at Illinois · W 63–24; defense 76.2 percentile2018 Week 5: Penn State vs. Ohio State · L 26–27; defense 94.2 percentile2018 Week 7: Penn State vs. Michigan State · L 17–21; defense 54.1 percentile2018 Week 8: Penn State at Indiana · W 33–28; defense 37.4 percentile2018 Week 9: Penn State vs. Iowa · W 30–24; defense 85.8 percentile2018 Week 10: Penn State at Michigan · L 7–42; defense 54.6 percentile2018 Week 11: Penn State vs. Wisconsin · W 22–10; defense 90.6 percentile2018 Week 12: Penn State at Rutgers · W 20–7; defense 72.0 percentile2018 Week 13: Penn State vs. Maryland · W 38–3; defense 97.3 percentile2018 Week 1: Penn State vs. Kentucky · L 24–27; defense 68.6 percentile2019 Week 1: Penn State vs. Idaho · W 79–7; defense 87.7 percentile2019 Week 2: Penn State vs. Buffalo · W 45–13; defense 86.7 percentile2019 Week 3: Penn State vs. Pittsburgh · W 17–10; defense 78.0 percentile2019 Week 5: Penn State at Maryland · W 59–0; defense 97.4 percentile2019 Week 6: Penn State vs. Purdue · W 35–7; defense 96.6 percentile2019 Week 7: Penn State at Iowa · W 17–12; defense 89.9 percentile2019 Week 8: Penn State vs. Michigan · W 28–21; defense 61.1 percentile2019 Week 9: Penn State at Michigan State · W 28–7; defense 83.1 percentile2019 Week 11: Penn State at Minnesota · L 26–31; defense 54.5 percentile2019 Week 12: Penn State vs. Indiana · W 34–27; defense 37.3 percentile2019 Week 13: Penn State at Ohio State · L 17–28; defense 86.4 percentile2019 Week 14: Penn State vs. Rutgers · W 27–6; defense 31.1 percentile2019 Week 1: Penn State vs. Memphis · W 53–39; defense 73.6 percentile2020 Week 8: Penn State at Indiana · L 35–36; defense 90.1 percentile2020 Week 9: Penn State vs. Ohio State · L 25–38; defense 45.4 percentile2020 Week 10: Penn State vs. Maryland · L 19–35; defense 20.7 percentile2020 Week 11: Penn State at Nebraska · L 23–30; defense 60.0 percentile2020 Week 12: Penn State vs. Iowa · L 21–41; defense 49.3 percentile2020 Week 13: Penn State at Michigan · W 27–17; defense 56.7 percentile2020 Week 14: Penn State at Rutgers · W 23–7; defense 97.7 percentile2020 Week 15: Penn State vs. Michigan State · W 39–24; defense 45.1 percentile2020 Week 16: Penn State vs. Illinois · W 56–21; defense 73.3 percentile2021 Week 1: Penn State at Wisconsin · W 16–10; defense 94.6 percentile2021 Week 2: Penn State vs. Ball State · W 44–13; defense 93.3 percentile2021 Week 3: Penn State vs. Auburn · W 28–20; defense 52.3 percentile2021 Week 4: Penn State vs. Villanova · W 38–17; defense 59.9 percentile2021 Week 5: Penn State vs. Indiana · W 24–0; defense 76.9 percentile2021 Week 6: Penn State at Iowa · L 20–23; defense 83.1 percentile2021 Week 8: Penn State vs. Illinois · L 18–20; defense 38.4 percentile2021 Week 9: Penn State at Ohio State · L 24–33; defense 97.4 percentile2021 Week 10: Penn State at Maryland · W 31–14; defense 89.2 percentile2021 Week 11: Penn State vs. Michigan · L 17–21; defense 85.0 percentile2021 Week 12: Penn State vs. Rutgers · W 28–0; defense 95.3 percentile2021 Week 13: Penn State at Michigan State · L 27–30; defense 35.9 percentile2021 Week 1: Penn State vs. Arkansas · L 10–24; defense 49.4 percentile2022 Week 1: Penn State at Purdue · W 35–31; defense 51.5 percentile2022 Week 2: Penn State vs. Ohio · W 46–10; defense 97.3 percentile2022 Week 3: Penn State at Auburn · W 41–12; defense 70.3 percentile2022 Week 4: Penn State vs. Central Michigan · W 33–14; defense 56.4 percentile2022 Week 5: Penn State vs. Northwestern · W 17–7; defense 87.5 percentile2022 Week 7: Penn State at Michigan · L 17–41; defense 10.4 percentile2022 Week 8: Penn State vs. Minnesota · W 45–17; defense 90.0 percentile2022 Week 9: Penn State vs. Ohio State · L 31–44; defense 69.6 percentile2022 Week 10: Penn State at Indiana · W 45–14; defense 91.1 percentile2022 Week 11: Penn State vs. Maryland · W 30–0; defense 98.0 percentile2022 Week 13: Penn State vs. Michigan State · W 35–16; defense 87.2 percentile2022 Week 1: Penn State vs. Utah · W 35–21; defense 74.3 percentile2023 Week 2: Penn State vs. Delaware · W 63–7; defense 78.5 percentile2023 Week 3: Penn State at Illinois · W 30–13; defense 79.9 percentile2023 Week 4: Penn State vs. Iowa · W 31–0; defense 96.8 percentile2023 Week 5: Penn State at Northwestern · W 41–13; defense 94.6 percentile2023 Week 7: Penn State vs. Massachusetts · W 63–0; defense 97.6 percentile2023 Week 8: Penn State at Ohio State · L 12–20; defense 96.6 percentile2023 Week 9: Penn State vs. Indiana · W 33–24; defense 30.0 percentile2023 Week 10: Penn State at Maryland · W 51–15; defense 98.2 percentile2023 Week 11: Penn State vs. Michigan · L 15–24; defense 73.2 percentile2023 Week 12: Penn State vs. Rutgers · W 27–6; defense 92.2 percentile2023 Week 13: Penn State vs. Michigan State · W 42–0; defense 99.6 percentile2023 Week 1: Penn State vs. Ole Miss · L 25–38; defense 48.4 percentile2024 Week 1: Penn State at West Virginia · W 34–12; defense 97.7 percentile2024 Week 2: Penn State vs. Bowling Green · W 34–27; defense 53.8 percentile2024 Week 4: Penn State vs. Kent State · W 56–0; defense 98.1 percentile2024 Week 5: Penn State vs. Illinois · W 21–7; defense 93.7 percentile2024 Week 6: Penn State vs. UCLA · W 27–11; defense 73.1 percentile2024 Week 7: Penn State at USC · W 33–30; defense 54.5 percentile2024 Week 9: Penn State at Wisconsin · W 28–13; defense 84.5 percentile2024 Week 10: Penn State vs. Ohio State · L 13–20; defense 49.9 percentile2024 Week 11: Penn State vs. Washington · W 35–6; defense 97.2 percentile2024 Week 12: Penn State at Purdue · W 49–10; defense 64.7 percentile2024 Week 13: Penn State at Minnesota · W 26–25; defense 72.5 percentile2024 Week 14: Penn State vs. Maryland · W 44–7; defense 81.7 percentile2024 Week 15: Penn State vs. Oregon · L 37–45; defense 45.8 percentile2024 Week 1: Penn State vs. SMU · W 38–10; defense 97.5 percentile2024 Week 1: Penn State vs. Boise State · W 31–14; defense 90.7 percentile2024 Week 1: Penn State vs. Notre Dame · L 24–27; defense 78.0 percentile2025 Week 1: Penn State vs. Nevada · W 46–11; defense 88.2 percentile2025 Week 2: Penn State vs. Florida International · W 34–0; defense 92.6 percentile2025 Week 3: Penn State vs. Villanova · W 52–6; defense 64.3 percentile2025 Week 5: Penn State vs. Oregon · L 24–30; defense 73.4 percentile2025 Week 6: Penn State at UCLA · L 37–42; defense 32.4 percentile2025 Week 7: Penn State vs. Northwestern · L 21–22; defense 67.0 percentile2025 Week 8: Penn State at Iowa · L 24–25; defense 41.9 percentile2025 Week 10: Penn State at Ohio State · L 14–38; defense 6.4 percentile2025 Week 11: Penn State vs. Indiana · L 24–27; defense 76.8 percentile2025 Week 12: Penn State at Michigan State · W 28–10; defense 69.4 percentile2025 Week 13: Penn State vs. Nebraska · W 37–10; defense 90.9 percentile2025 Week 14: Penn State at Rutgers · W 40–36; defense 7.4 percentile2025 Week 1: Penn State vs. Clemson · W 22–10; defense 82.1 percentile2026 Week 1: Penn State vs. Marshall · W 45–0; defense 100.0 percentile2026 Week 2: Penn State at Temple · W 27–9; defense 51.8 percentile2014 defense season mean: 87.5 percentile2015 defense season mean: 67.6 percentile2016 defense season mean: 68.5 percentile2017 defense season mean: 72.0 percentile2018 defense season mean: 77.4 percentile2019 defense season mean: 78.7 percentile2020 defense season mean: 64.1 percentile2021 defense season mean: 78.6 percentile2022 defense season mean: 78.6 percentile2023 defense season mean: 89.7 percentile2024 defense season mean: 82.8 percentile2025 defense season mean: 61.9 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 70.2 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 92.5 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2014James Franklin
2025Terry Smith / James Franklin
2026Matt Campbell

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateMatt CampbellCoaching change2
63.1 estimate55.0 games-only average
70.2 estimate92.5 games-only average
2025Terry Smith / James FranklinCoaching change1365.061.9
2024James Franklin1677.882.8
2023James Franklin1265.389.7
2022James Franklin1268.478.6
2021James Franklin1331.178.6
2020James Franklin953.564.1
2019James Franklin1370.478.7
2018James Franklin1368.877.4
2017James Franklin1376.872.0
2016James Franklin1460.568.5
2015James Franklin1340.667.6
2014James FranklinCoaching change1322.987.5