2014–2026 performance history

Texas State over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

Pac-12Head coach: G.J. KinneView Texas State games →
Offense · 2026 estimate73.6/100

55.8 average through 2 games

77.5 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate40.8/100

35.3 average through 2 games

42.2 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

Texas State individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.Franchione · ’14–’15Dennis Franchione, 2014–2015Withers · ’16–’18Everett Withers, 2016–2018Spavital · ’19–’22Jake Spavital, 2019–2022Kinne · ’23–’26G.J. Kinne, 2023–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Texas State vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff · W 65–0; offense 95.9 percentile2014 Week 3: Texas State vs. Navy · L 21–35; offense 30.1 percentile2014 Week 4: Texas State at Illinois · L 35–42; offense 27.6 percentile2014 Week 5: Texas State at Tulsa · W 37–34; offense 18.2 percentile2014 Week 6: Texas State vs. Idaho · W 35–30; offense 70.6 percentile2014 Week 8: Texas State vs. Louisiana · L 10–34; offense 26.1 percentile2014 Week 9: Texas State at UL Monroe · W 22–18; offense 62.7 percentile2014 Week 10: Texas State at New Mexico State · W 37–29; offense 41.6 percentile2014 Week 11: Texas State vs. Georgia Southern · L 25–28; offense 23.4 percentile2014 Week 12: Texas State at South Alabama · L 20–24; offense 15.5 percentile2014 Week 13: Texas State vs. Arkansas State · W 45–27; offense 87.6 percentile2014 Week 14: Texas State at Georgia State · W 54–31; offense 79.3 percentile2015 Week 1: Texas State at Florida State · L 16–59; offense 28.2 percentile2015 Week 2: Texas State vs. Prairie View A&M · W 63–24; offense 90.4 percentile2015 Week 3: Texas State vs. Southern Miss · L 50–56; offense 83.6 percentile2015 Week 4: Texas State at Houston · L 14–59; offense 39.0 percentile2015 Week 6: Texas State at Louisiana · L 27–49; offense 29.3 percentile2015 Week 8: Texas State vs. South Alabama · W 36–18; offense 45.9 percentile2015 Week 9: Texas State at Georgia Southern · L 13–37; offense 25.0 percentile2015 Week 10: Texas State vs. New Mexico State · L 21–31; offense 11.2 percentile2015 Week 11: Texas State vs. Georgia State · L 19–41; offense 41.6 percentile2015 Week 12: Texas State vs. UL Monroe · W 16–3; offense 2.3 percentile2015 Week 14: Texas State at Arkansas State · L 17–55; offense 24.4 percentile2016 Week 1: Texas State at Ohio · W 56–54; offense 59.1 percentile2016 Week 3: Texas State at Arkansas · L 3–42; offense 1.0 percentile2016 Week 4: Texas State vs. Houston · L 3–64; offense 1.8 percentile2016 Week 5: Texas State vs. Incarnate Word · W 48–17; offense 27.9 percentile2016 Week 6: Texas State at Georgia State · L 21–41; offense 32.7 percentile2016 Week 7: Texas State at UL Monroe · L 34–40; offense 36.4 percentile2016 Week 8: Texas State vs. Louisiana · L 3–27; offense 7.2 percentile2016 Week 10: Texas State at App State · L 10–35; offense 5.9 percentile2016 Week 11: Texas State vs. Idaho · L 14–47; offense 1.9 percentile2016 Week 12: Texas State at New Mexico State · L 10–50; offense 2.5 percentile2016 Week 13: Texas State vs. Troy · L 7–40; offense 2.6 percentile2016 Week 14: Texas State vs. Arkansas State · L 14–36; offense 17.2 percentile2017 Week 1: Texas State vs. Houston Christian · W 20–11; offense 2.9 percentile2017 Week 2: Texas State at Colorado · L 3–37; offense 2.0 percentile2017 Week 3: Texas State vs. App State · L 13–20; offense 49.6 percentile2017 Week 4: Texas State vs. UTSA · L 14–44; offense 8.9 percentile2017 Week 5: Texas State at Wyoming · L 10–45; offense 14.3 percentile2017 Week 6: Texas State vs. UL Monroe · L 27–45; offense 15.9 percentile2017 Week 7: Texas State at Louisiana · L 7–24; offense 2.3 percentile2017 Week 9: Texas State at Coastal Carolina · W 27–7; offense 69.6 percentile2017 Week 10: Texas State vs. New Mexico State · L 35–45; offense 62.6 percentile2017 Week 12: Texas State at Arkansas State · L 12–30; offense 9.0 percentile2017 Week 13: Texas State at Troy · L 9–62; offense 12.0 percentile2018 Week 1: Texas State at Rutgers · L 7–35; offense 0.5 percentile2018 Week 2: Texas State vs. Texas Southern · W 36–20; offense 18.6 percentile2018 Week 3: Texas State at South Alabama · L 31–41; offense 6.1 percentile2018 Week 4: Texas State at UTSA · L 21–25; offense 22.2 percentile2018 Week 6: Texas State vs. Louisiana · L 27–42; offense 30.3 percentile2018 Week 7: Texas State vs. Georgia Southern · L 13–15; offense 6.4 percentile2018 Week 8: Texas State at UL Monroe · L 14–20; offense 5.3 percentile2018 Week 9: Texas State vs. New Mexico State · W 27–20; offense 18.9 percentile2018 Week 11: Texas State vs. App State · L 7–38; offense 14.1 percentile2018 Week 12: Texas State at Troy · L 7–12; offense 21.6 percentile2018 Week 13: Texas State vs. Arkansas State · L 7–33; offense 35.6 percentile2019 Week 1: Texas State at Texas A&M · L 7–41; offense 7.6 percentile2019 Week 2: Texas State vs. Wyoming · L 14–23; offense 60.7 percentile2019 Week 3: Texas State at SMU · L 17–47; offense 3.5 percentile2019 Week 5: Texas State vs. Nicholls · W 24–3; offense 6.1 percentile2019 Week 7: Texas State vs. UL Monroe · L 14–24; offense 3.0 percentile2019 Week 9: Texas State at Arkansas State · L 14–38; offense 2.4 percentile2019 Week 10: Texas State at Louisiana · L 3–31; offense 6.3 percentile2019 Week 11: Texas State vs. South Alabama · W 30–28; offense 37.2 percentile2019 Week 12: Texas State vs. Troy · L 27–63; offense 41.2 percentile2019 Week 13: Texas State at App State · L 13–35; offense 14.1 percentile2019 Week 14: Texas State at Coastal Carolina · L 21–24; offense 23.2 percentile2020 Week 1: Texas State vs. SMU · L 24–31; offense 41.2 percentile2020 Week 2: Texas State vs. UTSA · L 48–51; offense 56.8 percentile2020 Week 3: Texas State at UL Monroe · W 38–17; offense 34.9 percentile2020 Week 4: Texas State at Boston College · L 21–24; offense 34.3 percentile2020 Week 6: Texas State at Troy · L 17–37; offense 5.9 percentile2020 Week 7: Texas State at South Alabama · L 20–30; offense 23.4 percentile2020 Week 8: Texas State at BYU · L 14–52; offense 37.5 percentile2020 Week 9: Texas State vs. Louisiana · L 34–44; offense 50.1 percentile2020 Week 10: Texas State vs. App State · L 17–38; offense 71.7 percentile2020 Week 11: Texas State at Georgia Southern · L 38–40; offense 54.8 percentile2020 Week 12: Texas State vs. Arkansas State · W 47–45; offense 76.1 percentile2020 Week 13: Texas State vs. Coastal Carolina · L 14–49; offense 52.5 percentile2021 Week 1: Texas State vs. Baylor · L 20–29; offense 31.8 percentile2021 Week 2: Texas State at Florida International · W 23–17; offense 6.5 percentile2021 Week 3: Texas State vs. Incarnate Word · L 34–42; offense 35.1 percentile2021 Week 4: Texas State at Eastern Michigan · L 21–59; offense 30.2 percentile2021 Week 7: Texas State vs. Troy · L 28–31; offense 72.5 percentile2021 Week 8: Texas State at Georgia State · L 16–28; offense 21.1 percentile2021 Week 9: Texas State at Louisiana · L 0–45; offense 12.6 percentile2021 Week 10: Texas State vs. UL Monroe · W 27–19; offense 42.9 percentile2021 Week 11: Texas State vs. Georgia Southern · L 30–38; offense 26.5 percentile2021 Week 12: Texas State at Coastal Carolina · L 21–35; offense 62.0 percentile2021 Week 13: Texas State at Arkansas State · W 24–22; offense 16.5 percentile2022 Week 2: Texas State vs. Florida International · W 41–12; offense 57.0 percentile2022 Week 3: Texas State at Baylor · L 7–42; offense 13.9 percentile2022 Week 4: Texas State vs. Houston Christian · W 34–0; offense 19.5 percentile2022 Week 5: Texas State at James Madison · L 13–40; offense 10.2 percentile2022 Week 6: Texas State vs. App State · W 36–24; offense 64.4 percentile2022 Week 7: Texas State at Troy · L 14–17; offense 26.1 percentile2022 Week 8: Texas State vs. Southern Miss · L 14–20; offense 6.1 percentile2022 Week 10: Texas State at UL Monroe · L 30–31; offense 25.5 percentile2022 Week 11: Texas State at South Alabama · L 21–38; offense 53.7 percentile2022 Week 12: Texas State vs. Arkansas State · W 16–13; offense 19.4 percentile2022 Week 13: Texas State vs. Louisiana · L 13–41; offense 49.6 percentile2023 Week 1: Texas State at Baylor · W 42–31; offense 57.7 percentile2023 Week 2: Texas State at UTSA · L 13–20; offense 10.2 percentile2023 Week 3: Texas State vs. Jackson State · W 77–34; offense 99.3 percentile2023 Week 4: Texas State vs. Nevada · W 35–24; offense 81.0 percentile2023 Week 5: Texas State at Southern Miss · W 50–36; offense 85.9 percentile2023 Week 7: Texas State vs. UL Monroe · W 21–20; offense 44.6 percentile2023 Week 9: Texas State vs. Troy · L 13–31; offense 77.7 percentile2023 Week 10: Texas State vs. Georgia Southern · W 45–24; offense 98.7 percentile2023 Week 11: Texas State at Coastal Carolina · L 23–31; offense 19.9 percentile2023 Week 12: Texas State at Arkansas State · L 31–77; offense 61.8 percentile2023 Week 13: Texas State vs. South Alabama · W 52–44; offense 81.7 percentile2023 Week 1: Texas State vs. Rice · W 45–21; offense 16.5 percentile2024 Week 1: Texas State vs. Lamar · W 34–27; offense 28.4 percentile2024 Week 5: Texas State vs. Sam Houston · L 39–40; offense 74.4 percentile2024 Week 6: Texas State at Troy · W 38–17; offense 87.1 percentile2024 Week 7: Texas State vs. Arkansas State · W 41–9; offense 97.4 percentile2024 Week 10: Texas State vs. Louisiana · L 17–23; offense 58.9 percentile2024 Week 11: Texas State at UL Monroe · W 38–17; offense 53.6 percentile2024 Week 12: Texas State vs. Southern Miss · W 58–3; offense 98.0 percentile2024 Week 13: Texas State vs. Georgia State · L 44–52; offense 14.0 percentile2024 Week 14: Texas State at South Alabama · W 45–38; offense 90.1 percentile2024 Week 1: Texas State vs. North Texas · W 30–28; offense 39.1 percentile2025 Week 1: Texas State vs. Eastern Michigan · W 52–27; offense 99.8 percentile2025 Week 2: Texas State at UTSA · W 43–36; offense 55.8 percentile2025 Week 3: Texas State at Arizona State · L 15–34; offense 21.2 percentile2025 Week 4: Texas State vs. Nicholls · W 35–3; offense 68.3 percentile2025 Week 7: Texas State vs. Troy · L 41–48; offense 86.2 percentile2025 Week 8: Texas State at Marshall · L 37–40; offense 42.1 percentile2025 Week 10: Texas State vs. James Madison · L 20–52; offense 72.4 percentile2025 Week 11: Texas State at Louisiana · L 39–42; offense 85.2 percentile2025 Week 12: Texas State at Southern Miss · W 41–14; offense 91.2 percentile2025 Week 13: Texas State vs. UL Monroe · W 31–14; offense 65.1 percentile2025 Week 14: Texas State vs. South Alabama · W 49–26; offense 94.4 percentile2025 Week 1: Texas State vs. Rice · W 41–10; offense 70.5 percentile2026 Week 1: Texas State at Texas · L 7–59; offense 48.6 percentile2026 Week 2: Texas State vs. UTSA · L 26–31; offense 62.7 percentile2014 offense season mean: 49.9 percentile2015 offense season mean: 35.8 percentile2016 offense season mean: 9.8 percentile2017 offense season mean: 15.8 percentile2018 offense season mean: 12.7 percentile2019 offense season mean: 13.3 percentile2020 offense season mean: 43.4 percentile2021 offense season mean: 30.2 percentile2022 offense season mean: 28.4 percentile2023 offense season mean: 67.8 percentile2024 offense season mean: 70.8 percentile2025 offense season mean: 77.5 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 73.6 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 55.8 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Texas State vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff · W 65–0; defense 51.6 percentile2014 Week 3: Texas State vs. Navy · L 21–35; defense 14.8 percentile2014 Week 4: Texas State at Illinois · L 35–42; defense 11.9 percentile2014 Week 5: Texas State at Tulsa · W 37–34; defense 59.7 percentile2014 Week 6: Texas State vs. Idaho · W 35–30; defense 36.6 percentile2014 Week 8: Texas State vs. Louisiana · L 10–34; defense 33.1 percentile2014 Week 9: Texas State at UL Monroe · W 22–18; defense 42.5 percentile2014 Week 10: Texas State at New Mexico State · W 37–29; defense 30.4 percentile2014 Week 11: Texas State vs. Georgia Southern · L 25–28; defense 92.1 percentile2014 Week 12: Texas State at South Alabama · L 20–24; defense 24.9 percentile2014 Week 13: Texas State vs. Arkansas State · W 45–27; defense 72.0 percentile2014 Week 14: Texas State at Georgia State · W 54–31; defense 2.4 percentile2015 Week 1: Texas State at Florida State · L 16–59; defense 0.9 percentile2015 Week 2: Texas State vs. Prairie View A&M · W 63–24; defense 42.6 percentile2015 Week 3: Texas State vs. Southern Miss · L 50–56; defense 3.5 percentile2015 Week 4: Texas State at Houston · L 14–59; defense 10.3 percentile2015 Week 6: Texas State at Louisiana · L 27–49; defense 4.5 percentile2015 Week 8: Texas State vs. South Alabama · W 36–18; defense 32.5 percentile2015 Week 9: Texas State at Georgia Southern · L 13–37; defense 18.2 percentile2015 Week 10: Texas State vs. New Mexico State · L 21–31; defense 35.4 percentile2015 Week 11: Texas State vs. Georgia State · L 19–41; defense 3.2 percentile2015 Week 12: Texas State vs. UL Monroe · W 16–3; defense 70.7 percentile2015 Week 14: Texas State at Arkansas State · L 17–55; defense 0.5 percentile2016 Week 1: Texas State at Ohio · W 56–54; defense 31.1 percentile2016 Week 3: Texas State at Arkansas · L 3–42; defense 3.6 percentile2016 Week 4: Texas State vs. Houston · L 3–64; defense 3.9 percentile2016 Week 5: Texas State vs. Incarnate Word · W 48–17; defense 20.4 percentile2016 Week 6: Texas State at Georgia State · L 21–41; defense 6.0 percentile2016 Week 7: Texas State at UL Monroe · L 34–40; defense 25.1 percentile2016 Week 8: Texas State vs. Louisiana · L 3–27; defense 19.7 percentile2016 Week 10: Texas State at App State · L 10–35; defense 15.7 percentile2016 Week 11: Texas State vs. Idaho · L 14–47; defense 11.6 percentile2016 Week 12: Texas State at New Mexico State · L 10–50; defense 27.8 percentile2016 Week 13: Texas State vs. Troy · L 7–40; defense 31.3 percentile2016 Week 14: Texas State vs. Arkansas State · L 14–36; defense 30.9 percentile2017 Week 1: Texas State vs. Houston Christian · W 20–11; defense 57.0 percentile2017 Week 2: Texas State at Colorado · L 3–37; defense 59.6 percentile2017 Week 3: Texas State vs. App State · L 13–20; defense 71.4 percentile2017 Week 4: Texas State vs. UTSA · L 14–44; defense 3.6 percentile2017 Week 5: Texas State at Wyoming · L 10–45; defense 29.9 percentile2017 Week 6: Texas State vs. UL Monroe · L 27–45; defense 13.3 percentile2017 Week 7: Texas State at Louisiana · L 7–24; defense 46.8 percentile2017 Week 9: Texas State at Coastal Carolina · W 27–7; defense 99.0 percentile2017 Week 10: Texas State vs. New Mexico State · L 35–45; defense 22.6 percentile2017 Week 12: Texas State at Arkansas State · L 12–30; defense 47.3 percentile2017 Week 13: Texas State at Troy · L 9–62; defense 15.4 percentile2018 Week 1: Texas State at Rutgers · L 7–35; defense 3.2 percentile2018 Week 2: Texas State vs. Texas Southern · W 36–20; defense 29.2 percentile2018 Week 3: Texas State at South Alabama · L 31–41; defense 40.2 percentile2018 Week 4: Texas State at UTSA · L 21–25; defense 57.4 percentile2018 Week 6: Texas State vs. Louisiana · L 27–42; defense 5.3 percentile2018 Week 7: Texas State vs. Georgia Southern · L 13–15; defense 96.0 percentile2018 Week 8: Texas State at UL Monroe · L 14–20; defense 74.0 percentile2018 Week 9: Texas State vs. New Mexico State · W 27–20; defense 66.0 percentile2018 Week 11: Texas State vs. App State · L 7–38; defense 20.6 percentile2018 Week 12: Texas State at Troy · L 7–12; defense 93.4 percentile2018 Week 13: Texas State vs. Arkansas State · L 7–33; defense 44.0 percentile2019 Week 1: Texas State at Texas A&M · L 7–41; defense 6.7 percentile2019 Week 2: Texas State vs. Wyoming · L 14–23; defense 73.9 percentile2019 Week 3: Texas State at SMU · L 17–47; defense 13.9 percentile2019 Week 5: Texas State vs. Nicholls · W 24–3; defense 60.0 percentile2019 Week 7: Texas State vs. UL Monroe · L 14–24; defense 61.9 percentile2019 Week 9: Texas State at Arkansas State · L 14–38; defense 39.0 percentile2019 Week 10: Texas State at Louisiana · L 3–31; defense 22.4 percentile2019 Week 11: Texas State vs. South Alabama · W 30–28; defense 23.9 percentile2019 Week 12: Texas State vs. Troy · L 27–63; defense 35.2 percentile2019 Week 13: Texas State at App State · L 13–35; defense 35.4 percentile2019 Week 14: Texas State at Coastal Carolina · L 21–24; defense 27.6 percentile2020 Week 1: Texas State vs. SMU · L 24–31; defense 31.4 percentile2020 Week 2: Texas State vs. UTSA · L 48–51; defense 47.1 percentile2020 Week 3: Texas State at UL Monroe · W 38–17; defense 42.2 percentile2020 Week 4: Texas State at Boston College · L 21–24; defense 77.0 percentile2020 Week 6: Texas State at Troy · L 17–37; defense 46.1 percentile2020 Week 7: Texas State at South Alabama · L 20–30; defense 37.9 percentile2020 Week 8: Texas State at BYU · L 14–52; defense 19.2 percentile2020 Week 9: Texas State vs. Louisiana · L 34–44; defense 13.1 percentile2020 Week 10: Texas State vs. App State · L 17–38; defense 35.2 percentile2020 Week 11: Texas State at Georgia Southern · L 38–40; defense 21.0 percentile2020 Week 12: Texas State vs. Arkansas State · W 47–45; defense 7.8 percentile2020 Week 13: Texas State vs. Coastal Carolina · L 14–49; defense 2.0 percentile2021 Week 1: Texas State vs. Baylor · L 20–29; defense 41.0 percentile2021 Week 2: Texas State at Florida International · W 23–17; defense 55.3 percentile2021 Week 3: Texas State vs. Incarnate Word · L 34–42; defense 1.0 percentile2021 Week 4: Texas State at Eastern Michigan · L 21–59; defense 4.5 percentile2021 Week 7: Texas State vs. Troy · L 28–31; defense 16.5 percentile2021 Week 8: Texas State at Georgia State · L 16–28; defense 14.4 percentile2021 Week 9: Texas State at Louisiana · L 0–45; defense 35.0 percentile2021 Week 10: Texas State vs. UL Monroe · W 27–19; defense 23.7 percentile2021 Week 11: Texas State vs. Georgia Southern · L 30–38; defense 23.8 percentile2021 Week 12: Texas State at Coastal Carolina · L 21–35; defense 34.2 percentile2021 Week 13: Texas State at Arkansas State · W 24–22; defense 25.0 percentile2022 Week 2: Texas State vs. Florida International · W 41–12; defense 43.8 percentile2022 Week 3: Texas State at Baylor · L 7–42; defense 5.2 percentile2022 Week 4: Texas State vs. Houston Christian · W 34–0; defense 60.2 percentile2022 Week 5: Texas State at James Madison · L 13–40; defense 76.1 percentile2022 Week 6: Texas State vs. App State · W 36–24; defense 58.8 percentile2022 Week 7: Texas State at Troy · L 14–17; defense 49.2 percentile2022 Week 8: Texas State vs. Southern Miss · L 14–20; defense 48.2 percentile2022 Week 10: Texas State at UL Monroe · L 30–31; defense 37.1 percentile2022 Week 11: Texas State at South Alabama · L 21–38; defense 43.6 percentile2022 Week 12: Texas State vs. Arkansas State · W 16–13; defense 45.9 percentile2022 Week 13: Texas State vs. Louisiana · L 13–41; defense 2.5 percentile2023 Week 1: Texas State at Baylor · W 42–31; defense 33.3 percentile2023 Week 2: Texas State at UTSA · L 13–20; defense 84.0 percentile2023 Week 3: Texas State vs. Jackson State · W 77–34; defense 4.3 percentile2023 Week 4: Texas State vs. Nevada · W 35–24; defense 37.6 percentile2023 Week 5: Texas State at Southern Miss · W 50–36; defense 31.1 percentile2023 Week 7: Texas State vs. UL Monroe · W 21–20; defense 56.6 percentile2023 Week 9: Texas State vs. Troy · L 13–31; defense 45.4 percentile2023 Week 10: Texas State vs. Georgia Southern · W 45–24; defense 34.6 percentile2023 Week 11: Texas State at Coastal Carolina · L 23–31; defense 58.8 percentile2023 Week 12: Texas State at Arkansas State · L 31–77; defense 2.3 percentile2023 Week 13: Texas State vs. South Alabama · W 52–44; defense 22.9 percentile2023 Week 1: Texas State vs. Rice · W 45–21; defense 72.4 percentile2024 Week 1: Texas State vs. Lamar · W 34–27; defense 26.0 percentile2024 Week 5: Texas State vs. Sam Houston · L 39–40; defense 11.4 percentile2024 Week 6: Texas State at Troy · W 38–17; defense 73.3 percentile2024 Week 7: Texas State vs. Arkansas State · W 41–9; defense 46.1 percentile2024 Week 10: Texas State vs. Louisiana · L 17–23; defense 35.0 percentile2024 Week 11: Texas State at UL Monroe · W 38–17; defense 83.0 percentile2024 Week 12: Texas State vs. Southern Miss · W 58–3; defense 92.1 percentile2024 Week 13: Texas State vs. Georgia State · L 44–52; defense 12.5 percentile2024 Week 14: Texas State at South Alabama · W 45–38; defense 57.7 percentile2024 Week 1: Texas State vs. North Texas · W 30–28; defense 43.1 percentile2025 Week 1: Texas State vs. Eastern Michigan · W 52–27; defense 49.9 percentile2025 Week 2: Texas State at UTSA · W 43–36; defense 58.4 percentile2025 Week 3: Texas State at Arizona State · L 15–34; defense 12.5 percentile2025 Week 4: Texas State vs. Nicholls · W 35–3; defense 55.7 percentile2025 Week 7: Texas State vs. Troy · L 41–48; defense 22.2 percentile2025 Week 8: Texas State at Marshall · L 37–40; defense 69.9 percentile2025 Week 10: Texas State vs. James Madison · L 20–52; defense 3.6 percentile2025 Week 11: Texas State at Louisiana · L 39–42; defense 19.1 percentile2025 Week 12: Texas State at Southern Miss · W 41–14; defense 54.1 percentile2025 Week 13: Texas State vs. UL Monroe · W 31–14; defense 33.4 percentile2025 Week 14: Texas State vs. South Alabama · W 49–26; defense 62.9 percentile2025 Week 1: Texas State vs. Rice · W 41–10; defense 91.2 percentile2026 Week 1: Texas State at Texas · L 7–59; defense 17.7 percentile2026 Week 2: Texas State vs. UTSA · L 26–31; defense 56.8 percentile2014 defense season mean: 36.7 percentile2015 defense season mean: 11.9 percentile2016 defense season mean: 16.4 percentile2017 defense season mean: 42.5 percentile2018 defense season mean: 47.3 percentile2019 defense season mean: 34.2 percentile2020 defense season mean: 27.8 percentile2021 defense season mean: 20.5 percentile2022 defense season mean: 38.5 percentile2023 defense season mean: 36.3 percentile2024 defense season mean: 48.1 percentile2025 defense season mean: 42.2 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 40.8 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 35.3 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2016Everett Withers
2018Everett Withers / Chris Woods
2019Jake Spavital
2023G.J. Kinne

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateG.J. Kinne2
73.6 estimate55.8 games-only average
40.8 estimate35.3 games-only average
2025G.J. Kinne1277.542.2
2024G.J. Kinne1070.848.1
2023G.J. KinneCoaching change1267.836.3
2022Jake Spavital1128.438.5
2021Jake Spavital1130.220.5
2020Jake Spavital1243.427.8
2019Jake SpavitalCoaching change1113.334.2
2018Everett Withers / Chris WoodsCoaching change1112.747.3
2017Everett Withers1115.842.5
2016Everett WithersCoaching change129.816.4
2015Dennis Franchione1135.811.9
2014Dennis Franchione1249.936.7