2014–2026 performance history

Duke over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

ACCHead coach: Manny DiazView Duke games →
Offense · 2026 estimate61.8/100

51.2 average through 2 games

64.4 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate41.2/100

76.5 average through 2 games

32.3 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

Duke individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.Cutcliffe · ’14–’21David Cutcliffe, 2014–2021Elko · ’22–’23Mike Elko, 2022–2023Diaz · ’24–’26Manny Diaz, 2024–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Duke vs. Elon · W 52–13; offense 67.4 percentile2014 Week 2: Duke at Troy · W 34–17; offense 56.2 percentile2014 Week 3: Duke vs. Kansas · W 41–3; offense 79.5 percentile2014 Week 4: Duke vs. Tulane · W 47–13; offense 75.9 percentile2014 Week 5: Duke at Miami · L 10–22; offense 15.7 percentile2014 Week 7: Duke at Georgia Tech · W 31–25; offense 65.6 percentile2014 Week 8: Duke vs. Virginia · W 20–13; offense 53.3 percentile2014 Week 10: Duke at Pittsburgh · W 51–48; offense 94.5 percentile2014 Week 11: Duke at Syracuse · W 27–10; offense 24.7 percentile2014 Week 12: Duke vs. Virginia Tech · L 16–17; offense 23.2 percentile2014 Week 13: Duke vs. North Carolina · L 20–45; offense 14.6 percentile2014 Week 14: Duke vs. Wake Forest · W 41–21; offense 84.3 percentile2014 Week 1: Duke vs. Arizona State · L 31–36; offense 79.8 percentile2015 Week 1: Duke at Tulane · W 37–7; offense 50.6 percentile2015 Week 2: Duke vs. North Carolina Central · W 55–0; offense 72.6 percentile2015 Week 3: Duke vs. Northwestern · L 10–19; offense 37.4 percentile2015 Week 4: Duke vs. Georgia Tech · W 34–20; offense 36.2 percentile2015 Week 5: Duke vs. Boston College · W 9–7; offense 7.3 percentile2015 Week 6: Duke at Army · W 44–3; offense 86.8 percentile2015 Week 8: Duke at Virginia Tech · W 45–43; offense 73.1 percentile2015 Week 9: Duke vs. Miami · L 27–30; offense 33.8 percentile2015 Week 10: Duke at North Carolina · L 31–66; offense 80.0 percentile2015 Week 11: Duke vs. Pittsburgh · L 13–31; offense 37.5 percentile2015 Week 12: Duke at Virginia · L 34–42; offense 50.5 percentile2015 Week 13: Duke at Wake Forest · W 27–21; offense 51.6 percentile2015 Week 1: Duke vs. Indiana · W 44–41; offense 61.4 percentile2016 Week 1: Duke vs. North Carolina Central · W 49–6; offense 37.0 percentile2016 Week 2: Duke vs. Wake Forest · L 14–24; offense 16.9 percentile2016 Week 3: Duke at Northwestern · L 13–24; offense 20.0 percentile2016 Week 4: Duke at Notre Dame · W 38–35; offense 86.4 percentile2016 Week 5: Duke vs. Virginia · L 20–34; offense 33.1 percentile2016 Week 7: Duke at Louisville · L 14–24; offense 49.5 percentile2016 Week 9: Duke at Georgia Tech · L 35–38; offense 88.2 percentile2016 Week 10: Duke vs. Virginia Tech · L 21–24; offense 69.2 percentile2016 Week 11: Duke vs. North Carolina · W 28–27; offense 74.7 percentile2016 Week 12: Duke at Pittsburgh · L 14–56; offense 2.4 percentile2016 Week 13: Duke at Miami · L 21–40; offense 67.2 percentile2017 Week 1: Duke vs. North Carolina Central · W 60–7; offense 64.3 percentile2017 Week 2: Duke vs. Northwestern · W 41–17; offense 84.0 percentile2017 Week 3: Duke vs. Baylor · W 34–20; offense 15.7 percentile2017 Week 4: Duke at North Carolina · W 27–17; offense 46.0 percentile2017 Week 5: Duke vs. Miami · L 6–31; offense 22.2 percentile2017 Week 6: Duke at Virginia · L 21–28; offense 18.1 percentile2017 Week 7: Duke vs. Florida State · L 10–17; offense 54.0 percentile2017 Week 8: Duke vs. Pittsburgh · L 17–24; offense 36.6 percentile2017 Week 9: Duke at Virginia Tech · L 3–24; offense 4.8 percentile2017 Week 11: Duke at Army · L 16–21; offense 37.9 percentile2017 Week 12: Duke vs. Georgia Tech · W 43–20; offense 82.9 percentile2017 Week 13: Duke at Wake Forest · W 31–23; offense 28.3 percentile2017 Week 1: Duke vs. Northern Illinois · W 36–14; offense 85.4 percentile2018 Week 1: Duke vs. Army · W 34–14; offense 93.4 percentile2018 Week 2: Duke at Northwestern · W 21–7; offense 32.9 percentile2018 Week 3: Duke at Baylor · W 40–27; offense 38.8 percentile2018 Week 4: Duke vs. North Carolina Central · W 55–13; offense 53.9 percentile2018 Week 5: Duke vs. Virginia Tech · L 14–31; offense 5.3 percentile2018 Week 7: Duke at Georgia Tech · W 28–14; offense 33.7 percentile2018 Week 8: Duke vs. Virginia · L 14–28; offense 27.4 percentile2018 Week 9: Duke at Pittsburgh · L 45–54; offense 92.2 percentile2018 Week 10: Duke at Miami · W 20–12; offense 28.6 percentile2018 Week 11: Duke vs. North Carolina · W 42–35; offense 84.6 percentile2018 Week 12: Duke at Clemson · L 6–35; offense 41.1 percentile2018 Week 13: Duke vs. Wake Forest · L 7–59; offense 3.9 percentile2018 Week 1: Duke vs. Temple · W 56–27; offense 92.8 percentile2019 Week 1: Duke vs. Alabama · L 3–42; offense 10.2 percentile2019 Week 2: Duke vs. North Carolina A&T · W 45–13; offense 30.4 percentile2019 Week 3: Duke at Middle Tennessee · W 41–18; offense 81.2 percentile2019 Week 5: Duke at Virginia Tech · W 45–10; offense 87.7 percentile2019 Week 6: Duke vs. Pittsburgh · L 30–33; offense 50.7 percentile2019 Week 7: Duke vs. Georgia Tech · W 41–23; offense 59.9 percentile2019 Week 8: Duke at Virginia · L 14–48; offense 8.3 percentile2019 Week 9: Duke at North Carolina · L 17–20; offense 25.6 percentile2019 Week 11: Duke vs. Notre Dame · L 7–38; offense 11.7 percentile2019 Week 12: Duke vs. Syracuse · L 6–49; offense 1.7 percentile2019 Week 13: Duke at Wake Forest · L 27–39; offense 24.3 percentile2019 Week 14: Duke vs. Miami · W 27–17; offense 17.5 percentile2020 Week 2: Duke at Notre Dame · L 13–27; offense 31.9 percentile2020 Week 4: Duke at Virginia · L 20–38; offense 3.3 percentile2020 Week 5: Duke vs. Virginia Tech · L 31–38; offense 17.3 percentile2020 Week 6: Duke at Syracuse · W 38–24; offense 85.1 percentile2020 Week 7: Duke at NC State · L 20–31; offense 12.7 percentile2020 Week 9: Duke vs. Charlotte · W 53–19; offense 65.0 percentile2020 Week 10: Duke vs. North Carolina · L 24–56; offense 38.8 percentile2020 Week 13: Duke at Georgia Tech · L 33–56; offense 5.9 percentile2020 Week 14: Duke vs. Miami · L 0–48; offense 0.9 percentile2020 Week 15: Duke at Florida State · L 35–56; offense 9.2 percentile2021 Week 1: Duke at Charlotte · L 28–31; offense 70.4 percentile2021 Week 2: Duke vs. North Carolina A&T · W 45–17; offense 70.6 percentile2021 Week 3: Duke vs. Northwestern · W 30–23; offense 28.1 percentile2021 Week 4: Duke vs. Kansas · W 52–33; offense 58.8 percentile2021 Week 5: Duke at North Carolina · L 7–38; offense 9.1 percentile2021 Week 6: Duke vs. Georgia Tech · L 27–31; offense 17.7 percentile2021 Week 7: Duke at Virginia · L 0–48; offense 2.6 percentile2021 Week 9: Duke at Wake Forest · L 7–45; offense 3.0 percentile2021 Week 11: Duke at Virginia Tech · L 17–48; offense 10.1 percentile2021 Week 12: Duke vs. Louisville · L 22–62; offense 27.4 percentile2022 Week 1: Duke vs. Temple · W 30–0; offense 59.0 percentile2022 Week 4: Duke at Kansas · L 27–35; offense 59.3 percentile2022 Week 5: Duke vs. Virginia · W 38–17; offense 84.4 percentile2022 Week 6: Duke at Georgia Tech · L 20–23; offense 30.2 percentile2022 Week 7: Duke vs. North Carolina · L 35–38; offense 90.1 percentile2022 Week 8: Duke at Miami · W 45–21; offense 70.0 percentile2022 Week 10: Duke at Boston College · W 38–31; offense 66.2 percentile2022 Week 11: Duke vs. Virginia Tech · W 24–7; offense 72.7 percentile2022 Week 12: Duke at Pittsburgh · L 26–28; offense 57.1 percentile2022 Week 13: Duke vs. Wake Forest · W 34–31; offense 90.7 percentile2022 Week 1: Duke vs. UCF · W 30–13; offense 52.8 percentile2023 Week 1: Duke vs. Clemson · W 28–7; offense 72.0 percentile2023 Week 2: Duke vs. Lafayette · W 42–7; offense 72.4 percentile2023 Week 3: Duke vs. Northwestern · W 38–14; offense 97.5 percentile2023 Week 4: Duke at UConn · W 41–7; offense 29.0 percentile2023 Week 5: Duke vs. Notre Dame · L 14–21; offense 51.3 percentile2023 Week 7: Duke vs. NC State · W 24–3; offense 51.0 percentile2023 Week 8: Duke at Florida State · L 20–38; offense 41.9 percentile2023 Week 9: Duke at Louisville · L 0–23; offense 17.2 percentile2023 Week 10: Duke vs. Wake Forest · W 24–21; offense 20.6 percentile2023 Week 12: Duke at Virginia · L 27–30; offense 49.1 percentile2023 Week 13: Duke vs. Pittsburgh · W 30–19; offense 58.7 percentile2023 Week 1: Duke vs. Troy · W 17–10; offense 49.8 percentile2024 Week 1: Duke vs. Elon · W 26–3; offense 2.1 percentile2024 Week 2: Duke vs. Northwestern · W 26–20; offense 8.7 percentile2024 Week 3: Duke vs. UConn · W 26–21; offense 70.1 percentile2024 Week 4: Duke at Middle Tennessee · W 45–17; offense 29.9 percentile2024 Week 5: Duke vs. North Carolina · W 21–20; offense 24.6 percentile2024 Week 6: Duke at Georgia Tech · L 14–24; offense 22.4 percentile2024 Week 8: Duke vs. Florida State · W 23–16; offense 0.2 percentile2024 Week 9: Duke vs. SMU · L 27–28; offense 54.8 percentile2024 Week 10: Duke at Miami · L 31–53; offense 57.5 percentile2024 Week 11: Duke at NC State · W 29–19; offense 15.3 percentile2024 Week 13: Duke vs. Virginia Tech · W 31–28; offense 38.1 percentile2024 Week 14: Duke at Wake Forest · W 23–17; offense 16.3 percentile2024 Week 1: Duke vs. Ole Miss · L 20–52; offense 19.0 percentile2025 Week 1: Duke vs. Elon · W 45–17; offense 48.8 percentile2025 Week 2: Duke vs. Illinois · L 19–45; offense 51.6 percentile2025 Week 3: Duke at Tulane · L 27–34; offense 42.3 percentile2025 Week 4: Duke vs. NC State · W 45–33; offense 58.4 percentile2025 Week 5: Duke at Syracuse · W 38–3; offense 76.8 percentile2025 Week 6: Duke at California · W 45–21; offense 70.8 percentile2025 Week 8: Duke vs. Georgia Tech · L 18–27; offense 29.0 percentile2025 Week 10: Duke at Clemson · W 46–45; offense 90.7 percentile2025 Week 11: Duke at UConn · L 34–37; offense 82.7 percentile2025 Week 12: Duke vs. Virginia · L 17–34; offense 27.7 percentile2025 Week 13: Duke at North Carolina · W 32–25; offense 74.7 percentile2025 Week 14: Duke vs. Wake Forest · W 49–32; offense 74.4 percentile2025 Week 15: Duke vs. Virginia · W 27–20; offense 60.5 percentile2025 Week 1: Duke vs. Arizona State · W 42–39; offense 87.2 percentile2026 Week 1: Duke vs. Tulane · W 17–3; offense 37.7 percentile2026 Week 2: Duke at Illinois · W 31–27; offense 64.5 percentile2014 offense season mean: 57.9 percentile2015 offense season mean: 52.0 percentile2016 offense season mean: 47.6 percentile2017 offense season mean: 43.3 percentile2018 offense season mean: 48.7 percentile2019 offense season mean: 29.5 percentile2020 offense season mean: 19.8 percentile2021 offense season mean: 23.5 percentile2022 offense season mean: 68.7 percentile2023 offense season mean: 52.9 percentile2024 offense season mean: 20.9 percentile2025 offense season mean: 64.4 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 61.8 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 51.2 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Duke vs. Elon · W 52–13; defense 34.5 percentile2014 Week 2: Duke at Troy · W 34–17; defense 49.4 percentile2014 Week 3: Duke vs. Kansas · W 41–3; defense 58.8 percentile2014 Week 4: Duke vs. Tulane · W 47–13; defense 44.8 percentile2014 Week 5: Duke at Miami · L 10–22; defense 83.4 percentile2014 Week 7: Duke at Georgia Tech · W 31–25; defense 52.3 percentile2014 Week 8: Duke vs. Virginia · W 20–13; defense 40.2 percentile2014 Week 10: Duke at Pittsburgh · W 51–48; defense 8.3 percentile2014 Week 11: Duke at Syracuse · W 27–10; defense 86.2 percentile2014 Week 12: Duke vs. Virginia Tech · L 16–17; defense 67.0 percentile2014 Week 13: Duke vs. North Carolina · L 20–45; defense 11.6 percentile2014 Week 14: Duke vs. Wake Forest · W 41–21; defense 14.3 percentile2014 Week 1: Duke vs. Arizona State · L 31–36; defense 14.1 percentile2015 Week 1: Duke at Tulane · W 37–7; defense 93.8 percentile2015 Week 2: Duke vs. North Carolina Central · W 55–0; defense 78.3 percentile2015 Week 3: Duke vs. Northwestern · L 10–19; defense 78.8 percentile2015 Week 4: Duke vs. Georgia Tech · W 34–20; defense 88.5 percentile2015 Week 5: Duke vs. Boston College · W 9–7; defense 49.1 percentile2015 Week 6: Duke at Army · W 44–3; defense 99.7 percentile2015 Week 8: Duke at Virginia Tech · W 45–43; defense 40.0 percentile2015 Week 9: Duke vs. Miami · L 27–30; defense 35.1 percentile2015 Week 10: Duke at North Carolina · L 31–66; defense 13.2 percentile2015 Week 11: Duke vs. Pittsburgh · L 13–31; defense 40.4 percentile2015 Week 12: Duke at Virginia · L 34–42; defense 13.0 percentile2015 Week 13: Duke at Wake Forest · W 27–21; defense 13.7 percentile2015 Week 1: Duke vs. Indiana · W 44–41; defense 20.3 percentile2016 Week 1: Duke vs. North Carolina Central · W 49–6; defense 91.6 percentile2016 Week 2: Duke vs. Wake Forest · L 14–24; defense 32.6 percentile2016 Week 3: Duke at Northwestern · L 13–24; defense 83.3 percentile2016 Week 4: Duke at Notre Dame · W 38–35; defense 36.7 percentile2016 Week 5: Duke vs. Virginia · L 20–34; defense 47.6 percentile2016 Week 7: Duke at Louisville · L 14–24; defense 36.5 percentile2016 Week 9: Duke at Georgia Tech · L 35–38; defense 27.6 percentile2016 Week 10: Duke vs. Virginia Tech · L 21–24; defense 58.9 percentile2016 Week 11: Duke vs. North Carolina · W 28–27; defense 52.9 percentile2016 Week 12: Duke at Pittsburgh · L 14–56; defense 10.4 percentile2016 Week 13: Duke at Miami · L 21–40; defense 20.3 percentile2017 Week 1: Duke vs. North Carolina Central · W 60–7; defense 78.8 percentile2017 Week 2: Duke vs. Northwestern · W 41–17; defense 96.8 percentile2017 Week 3: Duke vs. Baylor · W 34–20; defense 72.9 percentile2017 Week 4: Duke at North Carolina · W 27–17; defense 66.3 percentile2017 Week 5: Duke vs. Miami · L 6–31; defense 31.4 percentile2017 Week 6: Duke at Virginia · L 21–28; defense 73.0 percentile2017 Week 7: Duke vs. Florida State · L 10–17; defense 13.6 percentile2017 Week 8: Duke vs. Pittsburgh · L 17–24; defense 17.3 percentile2017 Week 9: Duke at Virginia Tech · L 3–24; defense 57.9 percentile2017 Week 11: Duke at Army · L 16–21; defense 77.8 percentile2017 Week 12: Duke vs. Georgia Tech · W 43–20; defense 31.5 percentile2017 Week 13: Duke at Wake Forest · W 31–23; defense 79.3 percentile2017 Week 1: Duke vs. Northern Illinois · W 36–14; defense 88.9 percentile2018 Week 1: Duke vs. Army · W 34–14; defense 78.1 percentile2018 Week 2: Duke at Northwestern · W 21–7; defense 69.5 percentile2018 Week 3: Duke at Baylor · W 40–27; defense 56.2 percentile2018 Week 4: Duke vs. North Carolina Central · W 55–13; defense 84.4 percentile2018 Week 5: Duke vs. Virginia Tech · L 14–31; defense 48.9 percentile2018 Week 7: Duke at Georgia Tech · W 28–14; defense 91.4 percentile2018 Week 8: Duke vs. Virginia · L 14–28; defense 75.1 percentile2018 Week 9: Duke at Pittsburgh · L 45–54; defense 4.2 percentile2018 Week 10: Duke at Miami · W 20–12; defense 64.1 percentile2018 Week 11: Duke vs. North Carolina · W 42–35; defense 20.1 percentile2018 Week 12: Duke at Clemson · L 6–35; defense 81.1 percentile2018 Week 13: Duke vs. Wake Forest · L 7–59; defense 7.0 percentile2018 Week 1: Duke vs. Temple · W 56–27; defense 92.1 percentile2019 Week 1: Duke vs. Alabama · L 3–42; defense 63.7 percentile2019 Week 2: Duke vs. North Carolina A&T · W 45–13; defense 56.5 percentile2019 Week 3: Duke at Middle Tennessee · W 41–18; defense 68.3 percentile2019 Week 5: Duke at Virginia Tech · W 45–10; defense 95.4 percentile2019 Week 6: Duke vs. Pittsburgh · L 30–33; defense 81.5 percentile2019 Week 7: Duke vs. Georgia Tech · W 41–23; defense 26.4 percentile2019 Week 8: Duke at Virginia · L 14–48; defense 44.6 percentile2019 Week 9: Duke at North Carolina · L 17–20; defense 80.3 percentile2019 Week 11: Duke vs. Notre Dame · L 7–38; defense 45.8 percentile2019 Week 12: Duke vs. Syracuse · L 6–49; defense 10.3 percentile2019 Week 13: Duke at Wake Forest · L 27–39; defense 19.2 percentile2019 Week 14: Duke vs. Miami · W 27–17; defense 65.3 percentile2020 Week 2: Duke at Notre Dame · L 13–27; defense 65.3 percentile2020 Week 4: Duke at Virginia · L 20–38; defense 45.5 percentile2020 Week 5: Duke vs. Virginia Tech · L 31–38; defense 29.8 percentile2020 Week 6: Duke at Syracuse · W 38–24; defense 48.8 percentile2020 Week 7: Duke at NC State · L 20–31; defense 70.7 percentile2020 Week 9: Duke vs. Charlotte · W 53–19; defense 48.5 percentile2020 Week 10: Duke vs. North Carolina · L 24–56; defense 4.3 percentile2020 Week 13: Duke at Georgia Tech · L 33–56; defense 7.2 percentile2020 Week 14: Duke vs. Miami · L 0–48; defense 11.9 percentile2020 Week 15: Duke at Florida State · L 35–56; defense 21.1 percentile2021 Week 1: Duke at Charlotte · L 28–31; defense 41.4 percentile2021 Week 2: Duke vs. North Carolina A&T · W 45–17; defense 12.0 percentile2021 Week 3: Duke vs. Northwestern · W 30–23; defense 20.9 percentile2021 Week 4: Duke vs. Kansas · W 52–33; defense 17.7 percentile2021 Week 5: Duke at North Carolina · L 7–38; defense 66.3 percentile2021 Week 6: Duke vs. Georgia Tech · L 27–31; defense 21.0 percentile2021 Week 7: Duke at Virginia · L 0–48; defense 29.8 percentile2021 Week 9: Duke at Wake Forest · L 7–45; defense 5.1 percentile2021 Week 11: Duke at Virginia Tech · L 17–48; defense 6.3 percentile2021 Week 12: Duke vs. Louisville · L 22–62; defense 0.1 percentile2022 Week 1: Duke vs. Temple · W 30–0; defense 98.6 percentile2022 Week 4: Duke at Kansas · L 27–35; defense 15.2 percentile2022 Week 5: Duke vs. Virginia · W 38–17; defense 49.4 percentile2022 Week 6: Duke at Georgia Tech · L 20–23; defense 10.7 percentile2022 Week 7: Duke vs. North Carolina · L 35–38; defense 2.1 percentile2022 Week 8: Duke at Miami · W 45–21; defense 47.8 percentile2022 Week 10: Duke at Boston College · W 38–31; defense 18.6 percentile2022 Week 11: Duke vs. Virginia Tech · W 24–7; defense 46.4 percentile2022 Week 12: Duke at Pittsburgh · L 26–28; defense 85.9 percentile2022 Week 13: Duke vs. Wake Forest · W 34–31; defense 16.2 percentile2022 Week 1: Duke vs. UCF · W 30–13; defense 80.6 percentile2023 Week 1: Duke vs. Clemson · W 28–7; defense 61.8 percentile2023 Week 2: Duke vs. Lafayette · W 42–7; defense 49.1 percentile2023 Week 3: Duke vs. Northwestern · W 38–14; defense 67.1 percentile2023 Week 4: Duke at UConn · W 41–7; defense 99.4 percentile2023 Week 5: Duke vs. Notre Dame · L 14–21; defense 81.7 percentile2023 Week 7: Duke vs. NC State · W 24–3; defense 85.0 percentile2023 Week 8: Duke at Florida State · L 20–38; defense 29.4 percentile2023 Week 9: Duke at Louisville · L 0–23; defense 40.3 percentile2023 Week 10: Duke vs. Wake Forest · W 24–21; defense 38.0 percentile2023 Week 12: Duke at Virginia · L 27–30; defense 11.3 percentile2023 Week 13: Duke vs. Pittsburgh · W 30–19; defense 60.0 percentile2023 Week 1: Duke vs. Troy · W 17–10; defense 80.6 percentile2024 Week 1: Duke vs. Elon · W 26–3; defense 87.5 percentile2024 Week 2: Duke vs. Northwestern · W 26–20; defense 89.4 percentile2024 Week 3: Duke vs. UConn · W 26–21; defense 78.8 percentile2024 Week 4: Duke at Middle Tennessee · W 45–17; defense 75.3 percentile2024 Week 5: Duke vs. North Carolina · W 21–20; defense 81.0 percentile2024 Week 6: Duke at Georgia Tech · L 14–24; defense 44.9 percentile2024 Week 8: Duke vs. Florida State · W 23–16; defense 67.7 percentile2024 Week 9: Duke vs. SMU · L 27–28; defense 46.9 percentile2024 Week 10: Duke at Miami · L 31–53; defense 60.0 percentile2024 Week 11: Duke at NC State · W 29–19; defense 86.9 percentile2024 Week 13: Duke vs. Virginia Tech · W 31–28; defense 73.4 percentile2024 Week 14: Duke at Wake Forest · W 23–17; defense 77.5 percentile2024 Week 1: Duke vs. Ole Miss · L 20–52; defense 6.0 percentile2025 Week 1: Duke vs. Elon · W 45–17; defense 21.0 percentile2025 Week 2: Duke vs. Illinois · L 19–45; defense 39.1 percentile2025 Week 3: Duke at Tulane · L 27–34; defense 41.1 percentile2025 Week 4: Duke vs. NC State · W 45–33; defense 24.7 percentile2025 Week 5: Duke at Syracuse · W 38–3; defense 76.9 percentile2025 Week 6: Duke at California · W 45–21; defense 70.5 percentile2025 Week 8: Duke vs. Georgia Tech · L 18–27; defense 66.7 percentile2025 Week 10: Duke at Clemson · W 46–45; defense 5.6 percentile2025 Week 11: Duke at UConn · L 34–37; defense 26.3 percentile2025 Week 12: Duke vs. Virginia · L 17–34; defense 7.1 percentile2025 Week 13: Duke at North Carolina · W 32–25; defense 13.1 percentile2025 Week 14: Duke vs. Wake Forest · W 49–32; defense 22.6 percentile2025 Week 15: Duke vs. Virginia · W 27–20; defense 45.4 percentile2025 Week 1: Duke vs. Arizona State · W 42–39; defense 32.3 percentile2026 Week 1: Duke vs. Tulane · W 17–3; defense 92.3 percentile2026 Week 2: Duke at Illinois · W 31–27; defense 50.9 percentile2014 defense season mean: 41.7 percentile2015 defense season mean: 56.1 percentile2016 defense season mean: 45.5 percentile2017 defense season mean: 62.9 percentile2018 defense season mean: 59.4 percentile2019 defense season mean: 56.0 percentile2020 defense season mean: 31.1 percentile2021 defense season mean: 14.9 percentile2022 defense season mean: 42.1 percentile2023 defense season mean: 63.0 percentile2024 defense season mean: 68.4 percentile2025 defense season mean: 32.3 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 41.2 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 76.5 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2022Mike Elko
2023Mike Elko / Trooper Taylor
2024Manny Diaz

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateManny Diaz2
61.8 estimate51.2 games-only average
41.2 estimate76.5 games-only average
2025Manny Diaz1464.432.3
2024Manny DiazCoaching change1320.968.4
2023Mike Elko / Trooper TaylorCoaching change1252.963.0
2022Mike ElkoCoaching change1168.742.1
2021David Cutcliffe1023.514.9
2020David Cutcliffe1019.831.1
2019David Cutcliffe1229.556.0
2018David Cutcliffe1348.759.4
2017David Cutcliffe1343.362.9
2016David Cutcliffe1147.645.5
2015David Cutcliffe1352.056.1
2014David Cutcliffe1357.941.7