2014–2026 performance history

Boise State over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

Pac-12Head coach: Spencer DanielsonView Boise State games →
Offense · 2026 estimate54.5/100

50.9 average through 1 game

55.0 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate60.2/100

56.4 average through 1 game

60.7 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

Boise State individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.Harsin · ’14–’20Bryan Harsin, 2014–2020Avalos · ’21–’23Andy Avalos, 2021–2023Danielson · ’24–’26Spencer Danielson, 2024–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Boise State vs. Ole Miss · L 13–35; offense 39.9 percentile2014 Week 2: Boise State vs. Colorado State · W 37–24; offense 86.5 percentile2014 Week 3: Boise State at UConn · W 38–21; offense 22.4 percentile2014 Week 4: Boise State vs. Louisiana · W 34–9; offense 70.5 percentile2014 Week 5: Boise State at Air Force · L 14–28; offense 22.4 percentile2014 Week 6: Boise State at Nevada · W 51–46; offense 73.6 percentile2014 Week 8: Boise State vs. Fresno State · W 37–27; offense 80.6 percentile2014 Week 9: Boise State vs. BYU · W 55–30; offense 97.7 percentile2014 Week 11: Boise State at New Mexico · W 60–49; offense 85.1 percentile2014 Week 12: Boise State vs. San Diego State · W 38–29; offense 86.7 percentile2014 Week 13: Boise State at Wyoming · W 63–14; offense 90.3 percentile2014 Week 14: Boise State vs. Utah State · W 50–19; offense 97.6 percentile2014 Week 15: Boise State vs. Fresno State · W 28–14; offense 37.3 percentile2014 Week 1: Boise State vs. Arizona · W 38–30; offense 50.7 percentile2015 Week 1: Boise State vs. Washington · W 16–13; offense 33.1 percentile2015 Week 2: Boise State at BYU · L 24–35; offense 32.7 percentile2015 Week 3: Boise State vs. Idaho State · W 52–0; offense 56.9 percentile2015 Week 4: Boise State at Virginia · W 56–14; offense 47.2 percentile2015 Week 5: Boise State vs. Hawai'i · W 55–0; offense 66.3 percentile2015 Week 6: Boise State at Colorado State · W 41–10; offense 58.9 percentile2015 Week 7: Boise State at Utah State · L 26–52; offense 28.5 percentile2015 Week 8: Boise State vs. Wyoming · W 34–14; offense 46.1 percentile2015 Week 9: Boise State at UNLV · W 55–27; offense 75.3 percentile2015 Week 11: Boise State vs. New Mexico · L 24–31; offense 11.7 percentile2015 Week 12: Boise State vs. Air Force · L 30–37; offense 32.6 percentile2015 Week 13: Boise State at San José State · W 40–23; offense 91.2 percentile2015 Week 1: Boise State vs. Northern Illinois · W 55–7; offense 93.2 percentile2016 Week 1: Boise State at Louisiana · W 45–10; offense 96.7 percentile2016 Week 2: Boise State vs. Washington State · W 31–28; offense 59.3 percentile2016 Week 4: Boise State at Oregon State · W 38–24; offense 77.4 percentile2016 Week 5: Boise State vs. Utah State · W 21–10; offense 48.0 percentile2016 Week 6: Boise State at New Mexico · W 49–21; offense 84.4 percentile2016 Week 7: Boise State vs. Colorado State · W 28–23; offense 58.1 percentile2016 Week 8: Boise State vs. BYU · W 28–27; offense 90.4 percentile2016 Week 9: Boise State at Wyoming · L 28–30; offense 73.7 percentile2016 Week 10: Boise State vs. San José State · W 45–31; offense 91.4 percentile2016 Week 11: Boise State at Hawai'i · W 52–16; offense 91.8 percentile2016 Week 12: Boise State vs. UNLV · W 42–25; offense 78.2 percentile2016 Week 13: Boise State at Air Force · L 20–27; offense 37.2 percentile2016 Week 1: Boise State vs. Baylor · L 12–31; offense 7.9 percentile2017 Week 1: Boise State vs. Troy · W 24–13; offense 45.1 percentile2017 Week 2: Boise State at Washington State · L 44–47; offense 84.6 percentile2017 Week 3: Boise State vs. New Mexico · W 28–14; offense 16.7 percentile2017 Week 4: Boise State vs. Virginia · L 23–42; offense 2.5 percentile2017 Week 6: Boise State at BYU · W 24–7; offense 49.5 percentile2017 Week 7: Boise State at San Diego State · W 31–14; offense 64.5 percentile2017 Week 8: Boise State vs. Wyoming · W 24–14; offense 79.0 percentile2017 Week 9: Boise State at Utah State · W 41–14; offense 82.5 percentile2017 Week 10: Boise State vs. Nevada · W 41–14; offense 76.6 percentile2017 Week 11: Boise State at Colorado State · W 59–52; offense 96.6 percentile2017 Week 12: Boise State vs. Air Force · W 44–19; offense 64.4 percentile2017 Week 13: Boise State at Fresno State · L 17–28; offense 64.0 percentile2017 Week 14: Boise State vs. Fresno State · W 17–14; offense 39.5 percentile2017 Week 1: Boise State vs. Oregon · W 38–28; offense 51.4 percentile2018 Week 1: Boise State at Troy · W 56–20; offense 78.3 percentile2018 Week 2: Boise State vs. UConn · W 62–7; offense 96.6 percentile2018 Week 3: Boise State at Oklahoma State · L 21–44; offense 25.4 percentile2018 Week 5: Boise State at Wyoming · W 34–14; offense 81.8 percentile2018 Week 6: Boise State vs. San Diego State · L 13–19; offense 5.1 percentile2018 Week 7: Boise State at Nevada · W 31–27; offense 85.7 percentile2018 Week 8: Boise State vs. Colorado State · W 56–28; offense 87.8 percentile2018 Week 9: Boise State at Air Force · W 48–38; offense 93.7 percentile2018 Week 10: Boise State vs. BYU · W 21–16; offense 42.9 percentile2018 Week 11: Boise State vs. Fresno State · W 24–17; offense 93.1 percentile2018 Week 12: Boise State at New Mexico · W 45–14; offense 79.9 percentile2018 Week 13: Boise State vs. Utah State · W 33–24; offense 85.0 percentile2018 Week 14: Boise State vs. Fresno State · L 16–19; offense 33.5 percentile2019 Week 1: Boise State at Florida State · W 36–31; offense 77.0 percentile2019 Week 2: Boise State vs. Marshall · W 14–7; offense 29.6 percentile2019 Week 3: Boise State vs. Portland State · W 45–10; offense 40.1 percentile2019 Week 4: Boise State vs. Air Force · W 30–19; offense 76.0 percentile2019 Week 6: Boise State at UNLV · W 38–13; offense 59.4 percentile2019 Week 7: Boise State vs. Hawai'i · W 59–37; offense 79.2 percentile2019 Week 8: Boise State at BYU · L 25–28; offense 57.9 percentile2019 Week 10: Boise State at San José State · W 52–42; offense 87.8 percentile2019 Week 11: Boise State vs. Wyoming · W 20–17; offense 34.8 percentile2019 Week 12: Boise State vs. New Mexico · W 42–9; offense 86.5 percentile2019 Week 13: Boise State at Utah State · W 56–21; offense 88.7 percentile2019 Week 14: Boise State at Colorado State · W 31–24; offense 44.0 percentile2019 Week 15: Boise State vs. Hawai'i · W 31–10; offense 49.0 percentile2019 Week 1: Boise State vs. Washington · L 7–38; offense 25.7 percentile2020 Week 8: Boise State vs. Utah State · W 42–13; offense 70.4 percentile2020 Week 9: Boise State at Air Force · W 49–30; offense 99.3 percentile2020 Week 10: Boise State vs. BYU · L 17–51; offense 29.4 percentile2020 Week 11: Boise State vs. Colorado State · W 52–21; offense 40.3 percentile2020 Week 12: Boise State at Hawai'i · W 40–32; offense 75.6 percentile2020 Week 15: Boise State at Wyoming · W 17–9; offense 25.0 percentile2020 Week 16: Boise State vs. San José State · L 20–34; offense 3.6 percentile2021 Week 1: Boise State at UCF · L 31–36; offense 19.8 percentile2021 Week 2: Boise State vs. UTEP · W 54–13; offense 78.9 percentile2021 Week 4: Boise State at Utah State · W 27–3; offense 53.3 percentile2021 Week 5: Boise State vs. Nevada · L 31–41; offense 42.8 percentile2021 Week 6: Boise State at BYU · W 26–17; offense 32.9 percentile2021 Week 7: Boise State vs. Air Force · L 17–24; offense 75.2 percentile2021 Week 9: Boise State at Colorado State · W 28–19; offense 76.4 percentile2021 Week 10: Boise State at Fresno State · W 40–14; offense 77.9 percentile2021 Week 11: Boise State vs. Wyoming · W 23–13; offense 57.0 percentile2021 Week 12: Boise State vs. New Mexico · W 37–0; offense 52.0 percentile2021 Week 13: Boise State at San Diego State · L 16–27; offense 50.0 percentile2022 Week 1: Boise State at Oregon State · L 17–34; offense 26.8 percentile2022 Week 2: Boise State at New Mexico · W 31–14; offense 32.9 percentile2022 Week 4: Boise State at UTEP · L 10–27; offense 15.4 percentile2022 Week 6: Boise State vs. Fresno State · W 40–20; offense 93.3 percentile2022 Week 8: Boise State at Air Force · W 19–14; offense 82.1 percentile2022 Week 9: Boise State vs. Colorado State · W 49–10; offense 98.2 percentile2022 Week 11: Boise State at Nevada · W 41–3; offense 93.9 percentile2022 Week 12: Boise State at Wyoming · W 20–17; offense 64.4 percentile2022 Week 13: Boise State vs. Utah State · W 42–23; offense 61.0 percentile2022 Week 14: Boise State vs. Fresno State · L 16–28; offense 31.3 percentile2022 Week 1: Boise State vs. North Texas · W 35–32; offense 69.2 percentile2023 Week 1: Boise State at Washington · L 19–56; offense 53.2 percentile2023 Week 3: Boise State vs. North Dakota · W 42–18; offense 29.1 percentile2023 Week 4: Boise State at San Diego State · W 34–31; offense 79.8 percentile2023 Week 5: Boise State at Memphis · L 32–35; offense 53.5 percentile2023 Week 6: Boise State vs. San José State · W 35–27; offense 87.5 percentile2023 Week 7: Boise State at Colorado State · L 30–31; offense 69.4 percentile2023 Week 9: Boise State vs. Wyoming · W 32–7; offense 84.0 percentile2023 Week 10: Boise State at Fresno State · L 30–37; offense 74.6 percentile2023 Week 11: Boise State vs. New Mexico · W 42–14; offense 96.8 percentile2023 Week 12: Boise State at Utah State · W 45–10; offense 75.7 percentile2023 Week 13: Boise State vs. Air Force · W 27–19; offense 82.0 percentile2023 Week 14: Boise State at UNLV · W 44–20; offense 96.9 percentile2023 Week 1: Boise State vs. UCLA · L 22–35; offense 74.6 percentile2024 Week 1: Boise State at Georgia Southern · W 56–45; offense 94.7 percentile2024 Week 2: Boise State at Oregon · L 34–37; offense 77.1 percentile2024 Week 4: Boise State vs. Portland State · W 56–14; offense 79.3 percentile2024 Week 5: Boise State vs. Washington State · W 45–24; offense 84.5 percentile2024 Week 6: Boise State vs. Utah State · W 62–30; offense 82.4 percentile2024 Week 7: Boise State at Hawai'i · W 28–7; offense 89.5 percentile2024 Week 9: Boise State at UNLV · W 29–24; offense 78.3 percentile2024 Week 10: Boise State vs. San Diego State · W 56–24; offense 82.0 percentile2024 Week 11: Boise State vs. Nevada · W 28–21; offense 48.0 percentile2024 Week 12: Boise State at San José State · W 42–21; offense 93.4 percentile2024 Week 13: Boise State at Wyoming · W 17–13; offense 30.4 percentile2024 Week 14: Boise State vs. Oregon State · W 34–18; offense 45.5 percentile2024 Week 15: Boise State vs. UNLV · W 21–7; offense 80.2 percentile2024 Week 1: Boise State vs. Penn State · L 14–31; offense 57.9 percentile2025 Week 1: Boise State at South Florida · L 7–34; offense 7.7 percentile2025 Week 2: Boise State vs. Eastern Washington · W 51–14; offense 64.4 percentile2025 Week 4: Boise State at Air Force · W 49–37; offense 99.6 percentile2025 Week 5: Boise State vs. App State · W 47–14; offense 43.6 percentile2025 Week 6: Boise State at Notre Dame · L 7–28; offense 49.8 percentile2025 Week 7: Boise State vs. New Mexico · W 41–25; offense 57.9 percentile2025 Week 8: Boise State vs. UNLV · W 56–31; offense 91.8 percentile2025 Week 9: Boise State at Nevada · W 24–3; offense 22.4 percentile2025 Week 10: Boise State vs. Fresno State · L 7–30; offense 11.7 percentile2025 Week 12: Boise State at San Diego State · L 7–17; offense 46.1 percentile2025 Week 13: Boise State vs. Colorado State · W 49–21; offense 64.8 percentile2025 Week 14: Boise State at Utah State · W 25–24; offense 34.3 percentile2025 Week 15: Boise State vs. UNLV · W 38–21; offense 75.2 percentile2026 Week 1: Boise State at Oregon · L 27–34; offense 50.9 percentile2014 offense season mean: 72.8 percentile2015 offense season mean: 53.4 percentile2016 offense season mean: 72.4 percentile2017 offense season mean: 58.8 percentile2018 offense season mean: 72.4 percentile2019 offense season mean: 61.7 percentile2020 offense season mean: 52.3 percentile2021 offense season mean: 56.5 percentile2022 offense season mean: 66.4 percentile2023 offense season mean: 77.4 percentile2024 offense season mean: 76.1 percentile2025 offense season mean: 55.0 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 54.5 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 50.9 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Boise State vs. Ole Miss · L 13–35; defense 45.5 percentile2014 Week 2: Boise State vs. Colorado State · W 37–24; defense 81.9 percentile2014 Week 3: Boise State at UConn · W 38–21; defense 65.3 percentile2014 Week 4: Boise State vs. Louisiana · W 34–9; defense 98.3 percentile2014 Week 5: Boise State at Air Force · L 14–28; defense 82.9 percentile2014 Week 6: Boise State at Nevada · W 51–46; defense 32.5 percentile2014 Week 8: Boise State vs. Fresno State · W 37–27; defense 41.5 percentile2014 Week 9: Boise State vs. BYU · W 55–30; defense 90.1 percentile2014 Week 11: Boise State at New Mexico · W 60–49; defense 10.8 percentile2014 Week 12: Boise State vs. San Diego State · W 38–29; defense 56.8 percentile2014 Week 13: Boise State at Wyoming · W 63–14; defense 94.8 percentile2014 Week 14: Boise State vs. Utah State · W 50–19; defense 96.0 percentile2014 Week 15: Boise State vs. Fresno State · W 28–14; defense 65.3 percentile2014 Week 1: Boise State vs. Arizona · W 38–30; defense 73.8 percentile2015 Week 1: Boise State vs. Washington · W 16–13; defense 98.3 percentile2015 Week 2: Boise State at BYU · L 24–35; defense 63.4 percentile2015 Week 3: Boise State vs. Idaho State · W 52–0; defense 68.0 percentile2015 Week 4: Boise State at Virginia · W 56–14; defense 89.6 percentile2015 Week 5: Boise State vs. Hawai'i · W 55–0; defense 95.2 percentile2015 Week 6: Boise State at Colorado State · W 41–10; defense 93.2 percentile2015 Week 7: Boise State at Utah State · L 26–52; defense 58.2 percentile2015 Week 8: Boise State vs. Wyoming · W 34–14; defense 81.4 percentile2015 Week 9: Boise State at UNLV · W 55–27; defense 55.7 percentile2015 Week 11: Boise State vs. New Mexico · L 24–31; defense 58.4 percentile2015 Week 12: Boise State vs. Air Force · L 30–37; defense 30.7 percentile2015 Week 13: Boise State at San José State · W 40–23; defense 38.2 percentile2015 Week 1: Boise State vs. Northern Illinois · W 55–7; defense 99.9 percentile2016 Week 1: Boise State at Louisiana · W 45–10; defense 96.7 percentile2016 Week 2: Boise State vs. Washington State · W 31–28; defense 64.4 percentile2016 Week 4: Boise State at Oregon State · W 38–24; defense 86.8 percentile2016 Week 5: Boise State vs. Utah State · W 21–10; defense 89.3 percentile2016 Week 6: Boise State at New Mexico · W 49–21; defense 88.2 percentile2016 Week 7: Boise State vs. Colorado State · W 28–23; defense 61.1 percentile2016 Week 8: Boise State vs. BYU · W 28–27; defense 91.7 percentile2016 Week 9: Boise State at Wyoming · L 28–30; defense 39.8 percentile2016 Week 10: Boise State vs. San José State · W 45–31; defense 8.8 percentile2016 Week 11: Boise State at Hawai'i · W 52–16; defense 74.7 percentile2016 Week 12: Boise State vs. UNLV · W 42–25; defense 50.3 percentile2016 Week 13: Boise State at Air Force · L 20–27; defense 75.7 percentile2016 Week 1: Boise State vs. Baylor · L 12–31; defense 34.6 percentile2017 Week 1: Boise State vs. Troy · W 24–13; defense 97.5 percentile2017 Week 2: Boise State at Washington State · L 44–47; defense 69.1 percentile2017 Week 3: Boise State vs. New Mexico · W 28–14; defense 80.6 percentile2017 Week 4: Boise State vs. Virginia · L 23–42; defense 12.2 percentile2017 Week 6: Boise State at BYU · W 24–7; defense 78.3 percentile2017 Week 7: Boise State at San Diego State · W 31–14; defense 94.9 percentile2017 Week 8: Boise State vs. Wyoming · W 24–14; defense 34.1 percentile2017 Week 9: Boise State at Utah State · W 41–14; defense 85.9 percentile2017 Week 10: Boise State vs. Nevada · W 41–14; defense 45.4 percentile2017 Week 11: Boise State at Colorado State · W 59–52; defense 33.3 percentile2017 Week 12: Boise State vs. Air Force · W 44–19; defense 59.3 percentile2017 Week 13: Boise State at Fresno State · L 17–28; defense 35.2 percentile2017 Week 14: Boise State vs. Fresno State · W 17–14; defense 79.5 percentile2017 Week 1: Boise State vs. Oregon · W 38–28; defense 92.1 percentile2018 Week 1: Boise State at Troy · W 56–20; defense 69.6 percentile2018 Week 2: Boise State vs. UConn · W 62–7; defense 92.9 percentile2018 Week 3: Boise State at Oklahoma State · L 21–44; defense 39.7 percentile2018 Week 5: Boise State at Wyoming · W 34–14; defense 87.2 percentile2018 Week 6: Boise State vs. San Diego State · L 13–19; defense 80.5 percentile2018 Week 7: Boise State at Nevada · W 31–27; defense 41.8 percentile2018 Week 8: Boise State vs. Colorado State · W 56–28; defense 18.2 percentile2018 Week 9: Boise State at Air Force · W 48–38; defense 15.2 percentile2018 Week 10: Boise State vs. BYU · W 21–16; defense 66.1 percentile2018 Week 11: Boise State vs. Fresno State · W 24–17; defense 71.2 percentile2018 Week 12: Boise State at New Mexico · W 45–14; defense 60.9 percentile2018 Week 13: Boise State vs. Utah State · W 33–24; defense 70.3 percentile2018 Week 14: Boise State vs. Fresno State · L 16–19; defense 90.8 percentile2019 Week 1: Boise State at Florida State · W 36–31; defense 64.2 percentile2019 Week 2: Boise State vs. Marshall · W 14–7; defense 76.3 percentile2019 Week 3: Boise State vs. Portland State · W 45–10; defense 49.6 percentile2019 Week 4: Boise State vs. Air Force · W 30–19; defense 73.5 percentile2019 Week 6: Boise State at UNLV · W 38–13; defense 95.9 percentile2019 Week 7: Boise State vs. Hawai'i · W 59–37; defense 74.5 percentile2019 Week 8: Boise State at BYU · L 25–28; defense 70.9 percentile2019 Week 10: Boise State at San José State · W 52–42; defense 31.9 percentile2019 Week 11: Boise State vs. Wyoming · W 20–17; defense 84.1 percentile2019 Week 12: Boise State vs. New Mexico · W 42–9; defense 88.5 percentile2019 Week 13: Boise State at Utah State · W 56–21; defense 46.8 percentile2019 Week 14: Boise State at Colorado State · W 31–24; defense 19.5 percentile2019 Week 15: Boise State vs. Hawai'i · W 31–10; defense 97.8 percentile2019 Week 1: Boise State vs. Washington · L 7–38; defense 48.3 percentile2020 Week 8: Boise State vs. Utah State · W 42–13; defense 73.7 percentile2020 Week 9: Boise State at Air Force · W 49–30; defense 20.6 percentile2020 Week 10: Boise State vs. BYU · L 17–51; defense 27.9 percentile2020 Week 11: Boise State vs. Colorado State · W 52–21; defense 54.3 percentile2020 Week 12: Boise State at Hawai'i · W 40–32; defense 85.4 percentile2020 Week 15: Boise State at Wyoming · W 17–9; defense 98.4 percentile2020 Week 16: Boise State vs. San José State · L 20–34; defense 61.0 percentile2021 Week 1: Boise State at UCF · L 31–36; defense 10.9 percentile2021 Week 2: Boise State vs. UTEP · W 54–13; defense 84.2 percentile2021 Week 4: Boise State at Utah State · W 27–3; defense 72.0 percentile2021 Week 5: Boise State vs. Nevada · L 31–41; defense 31.5 percentile2021 Week 6: Boise State at BYU · W 26–17; defense 80.2 percentile2021 Week 7: Boise State vs. Air Force · L 17–24; defense 47.8 percentile2021 Week 9: Boise State at Colorado State · W 28–19; defense 75.5 percentile2021 Week 10: Boise State at Fresno State · W 40–14; defense 88.8 percentile2021 Week 11: Boise State vs. Wyoming · W 23–13; defense 46.6 percentile2021 Week 12: Boise State vs. New Mexico · W 37–0; defense 96.2 percentile2021 Week 13: Boise State at San Diego State · L 16–27; defense 59.4 percentile2022 Week 1: Boise State at Oregon State · L 17–34; defense 44.4 percentile2022 Week 2: Boise State at New Mexico · W 31–14; defense 94.9 percentile2022 Week 4: Boise State at UTEP · L 10–27; defense 40.6 percentile2022 Week 6: Boise State vs. Fresno State · W 40–20; defense 69.4 percentile2022 Week 8: Boise State at Air Force · W 19–14; defense 84.4 percentile2022 Week 9: Boise State vs. Colorado State · W 49–10; defense 77.5 percentile2022 Week 11: Boise State at Nevada · W 41–3; defense 80.3 percentile2022 Week 12: Boise State at Wyoming · W 20–17; defense 50.7 percentile2022 Week 13: Boise State vs. Utah State · W 42–23; defense 46.3 percentile2022 Week 14: Boise State vs. Fresno State · L 16–28; defense 90.6 percentile2022 Week 1: Boise State vs. North Texas · W 35–32; defense 37.9 percentile2023 Week 1: Boise State at Washington · L 19–56; defense 33.9 percentile2023 Week 3: Boise State vs. North Dakota · W 42–18; defense 54.6 percentile2023 Week 4: Boise State at San Diego State · W 34–31; defense 14.2 percentile2023 Week 5: Boise State at Memphis · L 32–35; defense 29.1 percentile2023 Week 6: Boise State vs. San José State · W 35–27; defense 67.3 percentile2023 Week 7: Boise State at Colorado State · L 30–31; defense 51.4 percentile2023 Week 9: Boise State vs. Wyoming · W 32–7; defense 99.5 percentile2023 Week 10: Boise State at Fresno State · L 30–37; defense 37.4 percentile2023 Week 11: Boise State vs. New Mexico · W 42–14; defense 66.1 percentile2023 Week 12: Boise State at Utah State · W 45–10; defense 91.7 percentile2023 Week 13: Boise State vs. Air Force · W 27–19; defense 84.3 percentile2023 Week 14: Boise State at UNLV · W 44–20; defense 89.4 percentile2023 Week 1: Boise State vs. UCLA · L 22–35; defense 12.5 percentile2024 Week 1: Boise State at Georgia Southern · W 56–45; defense 28.7 percentile2024 Week 2: Boise State at Oregon · L 34–37; defense 71.3 percentile2024 Week 4: Boise State vs. Portland State · W 56–14; defense 54.1 percentile2024 Week 5: Boise State vs. Washington State · W 45–24; defense 89.0 percentile2024 Week 6: Boise State vs. Utah State · W 62–30; defense 49.9 percentile2024 Week 7: Boise State at Hawai'i · W 28–7; defense 95.5 percentile2024 Week 9: Boise State at UNLV · W 29–24; defense 41.3 percentile2024 Week 10: Boise State vs. San Diego State · W 56–24; defense 55.6 percentile2024 Week 11: Boise State vs. Nevada · W 28–21; defense 82.6 percentile2024 Week 12: Boise State at San José State · W 42–21; defense 45.0 percentile2024 Week 13: Boise State at Wyoming · W 17–13; defense 76.7 percentile2024 Week 14: Boise State vs. Oregon State · W 34–18; defense 62.0 percentile2024 Week 15: Boise State vs. UNLV · W 21–7; defense 94.3 percentile2024 Week 1: Boise State vs. Penn State · L 14–31; defense 74.8 percentile2025 Week 1: Boise State at South Florida · L 7–34; defense 57.8 percentile2025 Week 2: Boise State vs. Eastern Washington · W 51–14; defense 29.8 percentile2025 Week 4: Boise State at Air Force · W 49–37; defense 27.0 percentile2025 Week 5: Boise State vs. App State · W 47–14; defense 69.5 percentile2025 Week 6: Boise State at Notre Dame · L 7–28; defense 75.6 percentile2025 Week 7: Boise State vs. New Mexico · W 41–25; defense 94.5 percentile2025 Week 8: Boise State vs. UNLV · W 56–31; defense 62.0 percentile2025 Week 9: Boise State at Nevada · W 24–3; defense 68.1 percentile2025 Week 10: Boise State vs. Fresno State · L 7–30; defense 59.2 percentile2025 Week 12: Boise State at San Diego State · L 7–17; defense 56.1 percentile2025 Week 13: Boise State vs. Colorado State · W 49–21; defense 53.3 percentile2025 Week 14: Boise State at Utah State · W 25–24; defense 49.0 percentile2025 Week 15: Boise State vs. UNLV · W 38–21; defense 67.1 percentile2026 Week 1: Boise State at Oregon · L 27–34; defense 56.4 percentile2014 defense season mean: 72.2 percentile2015 defense season mean: 80.2 percentile2016 defense season mean: 69.9 percentile2017 defense season mean: 68.6 percentile2018 defense season mean: 64.1 percentile2019 defense season mean: 70.2 percentile2020 defense season mean: 65.6 percentile2021 defense season mean: 65.9 percentile2022 defense season mean: 68.5 percentile2023 defense season mean: 61.3 percentile2024 defense season mean: 69.3 percentile2025 defense season mean: 60.7 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 60.2 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 56.4 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2014Bryan Harsin
2021Andy Avalos
2023Andy Avalos / Spencer Danielson
2024Spencer Danielson

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateSpencer Danielson1
54.5 estimate50.9 games-only average
60.2 estimate56.4 games-only average
2025Spencer Danielson1355.060.7
2024Spencer DanielsonCoaching change1476.169.3
2023Andy Avalos / Spencer DanielsonCoaching change1377.461.3
2022Andy Avalos1166.468.5
2021Andy AvalosCoaching change1156.565.9
2020Bryan Harsin752.365.6
2019Bryan Harsin1461.770.2
2018Bryan Harsin1372.464.1
2017Bryan Harsin1458.868.6
2016Bryan Harsin1372.469.9
2015Bryan Harsin1353.480.2
2014Bryan HarsinCoaching change1472.872.2