2014–2026 performance history

Nevada over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

Mountain WestHead coach: Jeff ChoateView Nevada games →
Offense · 2026 estimate35.3/100

98.2 average through 1 game

24.6 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate43.3/100

78.6 average through 1 game

38.7 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

Nevada individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.Polian · ’14–’16Brian Polian, 2014–2016Norvell · ’17–’21Jay Norvell, 2017–2021Wilson · ’22–’23Ken Wilson, 2022–2023Choate · ’24–’26Jeff Choate, 2024–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Nevada vs. Southern Utah · W 28–19; offense 45.2 percentile2014 Week 2: Nevada vs. Washington State · W 24–13; offense 10.1 percentile2014 Week 3: Nevada at Arizona · L 28–35; offense 59.6 percentile2014 Week 5: Nevada at San José State · W 21–10; offense 23.0 percentile2014 Week 6: Nevada vs. Boise State · L 46–51; offense 83.0 percentile2014 Week 7: Nevada vs. Colorado State · L 24–31; offense 44.0 percentile2014 Week 8: Nevada at BYU · W 42–35; offense 71.4 percentile2014 Week 10: Nevada vs. San Diego State · W 30–14; offense 46.0 percentile2014 Week 12: Nevada at Air Force · L 38–45; offense 86.9 percentile2014 Week 13: Nevada vs. Fresno State · L 20–40; offense 31.5 percentile2014 Week 14: Nevada at UNLV · W 49–27; offense 72.2 percentile2014 Week 1: Nevada vs. Louisiana · L 3–16; offense 11.7 percentile2015 Week 1: Nevada vs. UC Davis · W 31–17; offense 54.1 percentile2015 Week 2: Nevada vs. Arizona · L 20–44; offense 4.8 percentile2015 Week 3: Nevada at Texas A&M · L 27–44; offense 27.3 percentile2015 Week 4: Nevada at Buffalo · W 24–21; offense 49.0 percentile2015 Week 5: Nevada vs. UNLV · L 17–23; offense 18.2 percentile2015 Week 6: Nevada vs. New Mexico · W 35–17; offense 83.5 percentile2015 Week 7: Nevada at Wyoming · L 21–28; offense 49.8 percentile2015 Week 8: Nevada vs. Hawai'i · W 30–20; offense 26.8 percentile2015 Week 10: Nevada at Fresno State · W 30–16; offense 55.9 percentile2015 Week 11: Nevada vs. San José State · W 37–34; offense 63.3 percentile2015 Week 12: Nevada at Utah State · L 27–31; offense 25.9 percentile2015 Week 13: Nevada at San Diego State · L 14–31; offense 24.0 percentile2015 Week 1: Nevada vs. Colorado State · W 28–23; offense 73.8 percentile2016 Week 2: Nevada at Notre Dame · L 10–39; offense 14.8 percentile2016 Week 3: Nevada vs. Buffalo · W 38–14; offense 84.6 percentile2016 Week 4: Nevada at Purdue · L 14–24; offense 13.4 percentile2016 Week 5: Nevada at Hawai'i · L 17–38; offense 14.2 percentile2016 Week 6: Nevada vs. Fresno State · W 27–22; offense 67.7 percentile2016 Week 7: Nevada at San José State · L 10–14; offense 5.5 percentile2016 Week 10: Nevada at New Mexico · L 26–35; offense 38.4 percentile2016 Week 11: Nevada vs. San Diego State · L 16–46; offense 33.6 percentile2016 Week 12: Nevada vs. Utah State · W 38–37; offense 49.8 percentile2016 Week 13: Nevada at UNLV · W 45–10; offense 94.1 percentile2017 Week 1: Nevada at Northwestern · L 20–31; offense 74.3 percentile2017 Week 2: Nevada vs. Toledo · L 24–37; offense 77.6 percentile2017 Week 3: Nevada vs. Idaho State · L 28–30; offense 14.7 percentile2017 Week 4: Nevada at Washington State · L 7–45; offense 8.6 percentile2017 Week 5: Nevada at Fresno State · L 21–41; offense 25.5 percentile2017 Week 6: Nevada vs. Hawai'i · W 35–21; offense 58.8 percentile2017 Week 7: Nevada at Colorado State · L 42–44; offense 63.4 percentile2017 Week 8: Nevada vs. Air Force · L 42–45; offense 83.6 percentile2017 Week 10: Nevada at Boise State · L 14–41; offense 74.1 percentile2017 Week 12: Nevada at San Diego State · L 23–42; offense 47.9 percentile2017 Week 13: Nevada vs. UNLV · W 23–16; offense 52.1 percentile2018 Week 1: Nevada vs. Portland State · W 72–19; offense 74.0 percentile2018 Week 2: Nevada at Vanderbilt · L 10–41; offense 2.2 percentile2018 Week 3: Nevada vs. Oregon State · W 37–35; offense 0.9 percentile2018 Week 4: Nevada at Toledo · L 44–63; offense 63.6 percentile2018 Week 5: Nevada at Air Force · W 28–25; offense 62.8 percentile2018 Week 6: Nevada vs. Fresno State · L 3–21; offense 18.4 percentile2018 Week 7: Nevada vs. Boise State · L 27–31; offense 63.4 percentile2018 Week 8: Nevada at Hawai'i · W 40–22; offense 63.8 percentile2018 Week 9: Nevada vs. San Diego State · W 28–24; offense 19.5 percentile2018 Week 11: Nevada vs. Colorado State · W 49–10; offense 85.8 percentile2018 Week 12: Nevada at San José State · W 21–12; offense 22.1 percentile2018 Week 13: Nevada at UNLV · L 29–34; offense 45.4 percentile2018 Week 1: Nevada vs. Arkansas State · W 16–13; offense 2.1 percentile2019 Week 1: Nevada vs. Purdue · W 34–31; offense 54.8 percentile2019 Week 2: Nevada at Oregon · L 6–77; offense 12.3 percentile2019 Week 3: Nevada vs. Weber State · W 19–13; offense 17.6 percentile2019 Week 4: Nevada at UTEP · W 37–21; offense 78.3 percentile2019 Week 7: Nevada vs. San José State · W 41–38; offense 27.5 percentile2019 Week 8: Nevada at Utah State · L 10–36; offense 11.4 percentile2019 Week 9: Nevada at Wyoming · L 3–31; offense 20.8 percentile2019 Week 10: Nevada vs. New Mexico · W 21–10; offense 3.8 percentile2019 Week 11: Nevada at San Diego State · W 17–13; offense 26.7 percentile2019 Week 13: Nevada at Fresno State · W 35–28; offense 85.3 percentile2019 Week 14: Nevada vs. UNLV · L 30–33; offense 23.6 percentile2019 Week 1: Nevada vs. Ohio · L 21–30; offense 26.1 percentile2020 Week 8: Nevada vs. Wyoming · W 37–34; offense 58.2 percentile2020 Week 9: Nevada at UNLV · W 37–19; offense 86.2 percentile2020 Week 10: Nevada vs. Utah State · W 34–9; offense 45.6 percentile2020 Week 11: Nevada at New Mexico · W 27–20; offense 30.9 percentile2020 Week 12: Nevada vs. San Diego State · W 26–21; offense 71.0 percentile2020 Week 13: Nevada at Hawai'i · L 21–24; offense 81.9 percentile2020 Week 14: Nevada vs. Fresno State · W 37–26; offense 50.7 percentile2020 Week 15: Nevada at San José State · L 20–30; offense 79.7 percentile2020 Week 1: Nevada vs. Tulane · W 38–27; offense 72.2 percentile2021 Week 1: Nevada at California · W 22–17; offense 53.1 percentile2021 Week 2: Nevada vs. Idaho State · W 49–10; offense 69.6 percentile2021 Week 3: Nevada at Kansas State · L 17–38; offense 45.4 percentile2021 Week 5: Nevada at Boise State · W 41–31; offense 78.0 percentile2021 Week 6: Nevada vs. New Mexico State · W 55–28; offense 38.6 percentile2021 Week 7: Nevada vs. Hawai'i · W 34–17; offense 50.9 percentile2021 Week 8: Nevada at Fresno State · L 32–34; offense 69.3 percentile2021 Week 9: Nevada vs. UNLV · W 51–20; offense 69.0 percentile2021 Week 10: Nevada vs. San José State · W 27–24; offense 19.2 percentile2021 Week 11: Nevada at San Diego State · L 21–23; offense 45.6 percentile2021 Week 12: Nevada vs. Air Force · L 39–41; offense 69.0 percentile2021 Week 13: Nevada at Colorado State · W 52–10; offense 93.9 percentile2021 Week 1: Nevada vs. Western Michigan · L 24–52; offense 17.8 percentile2022 Week 1: Nevada at New Mexico State · W 23–12; offense 27.7 percentile2022 Week 2: Nevada vs. Incarnate Word · L 41–55; offense 21.7 percentile2022 Week 3: Nevada at Iowa · L 0–27; offense 6.2 percentile2022 Week 4: Nevada at Air Force · L 20–48; offense 81.7 percentile2022 Week 6: Nevada vs. Colorado State · L 14–17; offense 13.2 percentile2022 Week 7: Nevada at Hawai'i · L 16–31; offense 7.7 percentile2022 Week 9: Nevada at San José State · L 28–35; offense 35.9 percentile2022 Week 11: Nevada vs. Boise State · L 3–41; offense 21.3 percentile2022 Week 12: Nevada vs. Fresno State · L 14–41; offense 60.7 percentile2022 Week 13: Nevada at UNLV · L 22–27; offense 41.7 percentile2023 Week 1: Nevada at USC · L 14–66; offense 6.4 percentile2023 Week 3: Nevada vs. Kansas · L 24–31; offense 23.3 percentile2023 Week 4: Nevada at Texas State · L 24–35; offense 34.6 percentile2023 Week 5: Nevada at Fresno State · L 9–27; offense 4.8 percentile2023 Week 7: Nevada vs. UNLV · L 27–45; offense 36.8 percentile2023 Week 8: Nevada at San Diego State · W 6–0; offense 16.3 percentile2023 Week 9: Nevada vs. New Mexico · W 34–24; offense 5.1 percentile2023 Week 10: Nevada vs. Hawai'i · L 14–27; offense 2.5 percentile2023 Week 11: Nevada at Utah State · L 24–41; offense 11.8 percentile2023 Week 12: Nevada at Colorado State · L 20–30; offense 13.5 percentile2023 Week 13: Nevada vs. Wyoming · L 6–42; offense 2.8 percentile2024 Week 1: Nevada vs. SMU · L 24–29; offense 49.0 percentile2024 Week 1: Nevada at Troy · W 28–26; offense 76.5 percentile2024 Week 2: Nevada vs. Georgia Southern · L 17–20; offense 50.7 percentile2024 Week 3: Nevada at Minnesota · L 0–27; offense 17.3 percentile2024 Week 4: Nevada vs. Eastern Washington · W 49–16; offense 79.9 percentile2024 Week 6: Nevada at San José State · L 31–35; offense 92.7 percentile2024 Week 7: Nevada vs. Oregon State · W 42–37; offense 86.8 percentile2024 Week 8: Nevada vs. Fresno State · L 21–24; offense 18.2 percentile2024 Week 9: Nevada at Hawai'i · L 13–34; offense 51.3 percentile2024 Week 10: Nevada vs. Colorado State · L 21–38; offense 49.2 percentile2024 Week 11: Nevada at Boise State · L 21–28; offense 22.2 percentile2024 Week 13: Nevada vs. Air Force · L 19–22; offense 32.8 percentile2024 Week 14: Nevada at UNLV · L 14–38; offense 34.0 percentile2025 Week 1: Nevada at Penn State · L 11–46; offense 5.3 percentile2025 Week 2: Nevada vs. Sacramento State · W 20–17; offense 4.9 percentile2025 Week 3: Nevada vs. Middle Tennessee · L 13–14; offense 14.0 percentile2025 Week 4: Nevada at Western Kentucky · L 16–31; offense 35.9 percentile2025 Week 6: Nevada at Fresno State · L 17–20; offense 30.1 percentile2025 Week 7: Nevada vs. San Diego State · L 10–44; offense 10.6 percentile2025 Week 8: Nevada at New Mexico · L 22–24; offense 25.8 percentile2025 Week 9: Nevada vs. Boise State · L 3–24; offense 21.1 percentile2025 Week 11: Nevada at Utah State · L 14–51; offense 22.5 percentile2025 Week 12: Nevada vs. San José State · W 55–10; offense 88.3 percentile2025 Week 13: Nevada at Wyoming · W 13–7; offense 47.6 percentile2025 Week 14: Nevada vs. UNLV · L 17–42; offense 24.5 percentile2026 Week 1: Nevada vs. Western Kentucky · W 49–14; offense 98.2 percentile2014 offense season mean: 48.1 percentile2015 offense season mean: 41.0 percentile2016 offense season mean: 40.1 percentile2017 offense season mean: 51.9 percentile2018 offense season mean: 32.3 percentile2019 offense season mean: 29.4 percentile2020 offense season mean: 65.5 percentile2021 offense season mean: 56.5 percentile2022 offense season mean: 28.6 percentile2023 offense season mean: 11.1 percentile2024 offense season mean: 52.0 percentile2025 offense season mean: 24.6 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 35.3 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 98.2 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Nevada vs. Southern Utah · W 28–19; defense 25.3 percentile2014 Week 2: Nevada vs. Washington State · W 24–13; defense 59.4 percentile2014 Week 3: Nevada at Arizona · L 28–35; defense 2.3 percentile2014 Week 5: Nevada at San José State · W 21–10; defense 53.2 percentile2014 Week 6: Nevada vs. Boise State · L 46–51; defense 35.4 percentile2014 Week 7: Nevada vs. Colorado State · L 24–31; defense 52.4 percentile2014 Week 8: Nevada at BYU · W 42–35; defense 17.5 percentile2014 Week 10: Nevada vs. San Diego State · W 30–14; defense 80.5 percentile2014 Week 12: Nevada at Air Force · L 38–45; defense 14.8 percentile2014 Week 13: Nevada vs. Fresno State · L 20–40; defense 21.8 percentile2014 Week 14: Nevada at UNLV · W 49–27; defense 48.1 percentile2014 Week 1: Nevada vs. Louisiana · L 3–16; defense 62.9 percentile2015 Week 1: Nevada vs. UC Davis · W 31–17; defense 31.1 percentile2015 Week 2: Nevada vs. Arizona · L 20–44; defense 39.5 percentile2015 Week 3: Nevada at Texas A&M · L 27–44; defense 9.5 percentile2015 Week 4: Nevada at Buffalo · W 24–21; defense 34.8 percentile2015 Week 5: Nevada vs. UNLV · L 17–23; defense 63.3 percentile2015 Week 6: Nevada vs. New Mexico · W 35–17; defense 82.4 percentile2015 Week 7: Nevada at Wyoming · L 21–28; defense 5.5 percentile2015 Week 8: Nevada vs. Hawai'i · W 30–20; defense 48.0 percentile2015 Week 10: Nevada at Fresno State · W 30–16; defense 29.6 percentile2015 Week 11: Nevada vs. San José State · W 37–34; defense 24.7 percentile2015 Week 12: Nevada at Utah State · L 27–31; defense 70.2 percentile2015 Week 13: Nevada at San Diego State · L 14–31; defense 49.4 percentile2015 Week 1: Nevada vs. Colorado State · W 28–23; defense 32.7 percentile2016 Week 2: Nevada at Notre Dame · L 10–39; defense 33.2 percentile2016 Week 3: Nevada vs. Buffalo · W 38–14; defense 42.3 percentile2016 Week 4: Nevada at Purdue · L 14–24; defense 11.3 percentile2016 Week 5: Nevada at Hawai'i · L 17–38; defense 4.5 percentile2016 Week 6: Nevada vs. Fresno State · W 27–22; defense 8.3 percentile2016 Week 7: Nevada at San José State · L 10–14; defense 87.5 percentile2016 Week 10: Nevada at New Mexico · L 26–35; defense 34.5 percentile2016 Week 11: Nevada vs. San Diego State · L 16–46; defense 0.1 percentile2016 Week 12: Nevada vs. Utah State · W 38–37; defense 13.7 percentile2016 Week 13: Nevada at UNLV · W 45–10; defense 83.9 percentile2017 Week 1: Nevada at Northwestern · L 20–31; defense 38.8 percentile2017 Week 2: Nevada vs. Toledo · L 24–37; defense 65.3 percentile2017 Week 3: Nevada vs. Idaho State · L 28–30; defense 16.8 percentile2017 Week 4: Nevada at Washington State · L 7–45; defense 22.3 percentile2017 Week 5: Nevada at Fresno State · L 21–41; defense 24.1 percentile2017 Week 6: Nevada vs. Hawai'i · W 35–21; defense 21.8 percentile2017 Week 7: Nevada at Colorado State · L 42–44; defense 12.0 percentile2017 Week 8: Nevada vs. Air Force · L 42–45; defense 4.5 percentile2017 Week 10: Nevada at Boise State · L 14–41; defense 17.2 percentile2017 Week 12: Nevada at San Diego State · L 23–42; defense 51.8 percentile2017 Week 13: Nevada vs. UNLV · W 23–16; defense 77.9 percentile2018 Week 1: Nevada vs. Portland State · W 72–19; defense 59.2 percentile2018 Week 2: Nevada at Vanderbilt · L 10–41; defense 36.0 percentile2018 Week 3: Nevada vs. Oregon State · W 37–35; defense 36.4 percentile2018 Week 4: Nevada at Toledo · L 44–63; defense 37.0 percentile2018 Week 5: Nevada at Air Force · W 28–25; defense 97.5 percentile2018 Week 6: Nevada vs. Fresno State · L 3–21; defense 98.7 percentile2018 Week 7: Nevada vs. Boise State · L 27–31; defense 42.9 percentile2018 Week 8: Nevada at Hawai'i · W 40–22; defense 89.5 percentile2018 Week 9: Nevada vs. San Diego State · W 28–24; defense 19.6 percentile2018 Week 11: Nevada vs. Colorado State · W 49–10; defense 89.3 percentile2018 Week 12: Nevada at San José State · W 21–12; defense 82.9 percentile2018 Week 13: Nevada at UNLV · L 29–34; defense 45.6 percentile2018 Week 1: Nevada vs. Arkansas State · W 16–13; defense 81.5 percentile2019 Week 1: Nevada vs. Purdue · W 34–31; defense 21.4 percentile2019 Week 2: Nevada at Oregon · L 6–77; defense 8.6 percentile2019 Week 3: Nevada vs. Weber State · W 19–13; defense 78.4 percentile2019 Week 4: Nevada at UTEP · W 37–21; defense 33.4 percentile2019 Week 7: Nevada vs. San José State · W 41–38; defense 57.7 percentile2019 Week 8: Nevada at Utah State · L 10–36; defense 62.2 percentile2019 Week 9: Nevada at Wyoming · L 3–31; defense 15.1 percentile2019 Week 10: Nevada vs. New Mexico · W 21–10; defense 72.1 percentile2019 Week 11: Nevada at San Diego State · W 17–13; defense 72.2 percentile2019 Week 13: Nevada at Fresno State · W 35–28; defense 58.7 percentile2019 Week 14: Nevada vs. UNLV · L 30–33; defense 24.3 percentile2019 Week 1: Nevada vs. Ohio · L 21–30; defense 52.0 percentile2020 Week 8: Nevada vs. Wyoming · W 37–34; defense 51.7 percentile2020 Week 9: Nevada at UNLV · W 37–19; defense 28.2 percentile2020 Week 10: Nevada vs. Utah State · W 34–9; defense 71.4 percentile2020 Week 11: Nevada at New Mexico · W 27–20; defense 87.9 percentile2020 Week 12: Nevada vs. San Diego State · W 26–21; defense 70.5 percentile2020 Week 13: Nevada at Hawai'i · L 21–24; defense 37.2 percentile2020 Week 14: Nevada vs. Fresno State · W 37–26; defense 74.1 percentile2020 Week 15: Nevada at San José State · L 20–30; defense 17.9 percentile2020 Week 1: Nevada vs. Tulane · W 38–27; defense 45.2 percentile2021 Week 1: Nevada at California · W 22–17; defense 31.8 percentile2021 Week 2: Nevada vs. Idaho State · W 49–10; defense 12.4 percentile2021 Week 3: Nevada at Kansas State · L 17–38; defense 21.2 percentile2021 Week 5: Nevada at Boise State · W 41–31; defense 53.4 percentile2021 Week 6: Nevada vs. New Mexico State · W 55–28; defense 73.1 percentile2021 Week 7: Nevada vs. Hawai'i · W 34–17; defense 46.0 percentile2021 Week 8: Nevada at Fresno State · L 32–34; defense 40.1 percentile2021 Week 9: Nevada vs. UNLV · W 51–20; defense 56.2 percentile2021 Week 10: Nevada vs. San José State · W 27–24; defense 8.8 percentile2021 Week 11: Nevada at San Diego State · L 21–23; defense 60.5 percentile2021 Week 12: Nevada vs. Air Force · L 39–41; defense 44.0 percentile2021 Week 13: Nevada at Colorado State · W 52–10; defense 70.7 percentile2021 Week 1: Nevada vs. Western Michigan · L 24–52; defense 4.3 percentile2022 Week 1: Nevada at New Mexico State · W 23–12; defense 69.8 percentile2022 Week 2: Nevada vs. Incarnate Word · L 41–55; defense 0.4 percentile2022 Week 3: Nevada at Iowa · L 0–27; defense 19.4 percentile2022 Week 4: Nevada at Air Force · L 20–48; defense 2.0 percentile2022 Week 6: Nevada vs. Colorado State · L 14–17; defense 69.0 percentile2022 Week 7: Nevada at Hawai'i · L 16–31; defense 5.6 percentile2022 Week 9: Nevada at San José State · L 28–35; defense 57.4 percentile2022 Week 11: Nevada vs. Boise State · L 3–41; defense 4.9 percentile2022 Week 12: Nevada vs. Fresno State · L 14–41; defense 17.7 percentile2022 Week 13: Nevada at UNLV · L 22–27; defense 55.6 percentile2023 Week 1: Nevada at USC · L 14–66; defense 7.7 percentile2023 Week 3: Nevada vs. Kansas · L 24–31; defense 42.4 percentile2023 Week 4: Nevada at Texas State · L 24–35; defense 18.5 percentile2023 Week 5: Nevada at Fresno State · L 9–27; defense 36.0 percentile2023 Week 7: Nevada vs. UNLV · L 27–45; defense 16.0 percentile2023 Week 8: Nevada at San Diego State · W 6–0; defense 87.6 percentile2023 Week 9: Nevada vs. New Mexico · W 34–24; defense 73.5 percentile2023 Week 10: Nevada vs. Hawai'i · L 14–27; defense 46.7 percentile2023 Week 11: Nevada at Utah State · L 24–41; defense 26.9 percentile2023 Week 12: Nevada at Colorado State · L 20–30; defense 13.4 percentile2023 Week 13: Nevada vs. Wyoming · L 6–42; defense 12.8 percentile2024 Week 1: Nevada vs. SMU · L 24–29; defense 63.3 percentile2024 Week 1: Nevada at Troy · W 28–26; defense 29.6 percentile2024 Week 2: Nevada vs. Georgia Southern · L 17–20; defense 84.8 percentile2024 Week 3: Nevada at Minnesota · L 0–27; defense 28.5 percentile2024 Week 4: Nevada vs. Eastern Washington · W 49–16; defense 17.4 percentile2024 Week 6: Nevada at San José State · L 31–35; defense 26.7 percentile2024 Week 7: Nevada vs. Oregon State · W 42–37; defense 7.3 percentile2024 Week 8: Nevada vs. Fresno State · L 21–24; defense 33.9 percentile2024 Week 9: Nevada at Hawai'i · L 13–34; defense 3.7 percentile2024 Week 10: Nevada vs. Colorado State · L 21–38; defense 19.3 percentile2024 Week 11: Nevada at Boise State · L 21–28; defense 62.8 percentile2024 Week 13: Nevada vs. Air Force · L 19–22; defense 36.2 percentile2024 Week 14: Nevada at UNLV · L 14–38; defense 2.2 percentile2025 Week 1: Nevada at Penn State · L 11–46; defense 38.8 percentile2025 Week 2: Nevada vs. Sacramento State · W 20–17; defense 7.3 percentile2025 Week 3: Nevada vs. Middle Tennessee · L 13–14; defense 79.4 percentile2025 Week 4: Nevada at Western Kentucky · L 16–31; defense 37.5 percentile2025 Week 6: Nevada at Fresno State · L 17–20; defense 66.0 percentile2025 Week 7: Nevada vs. San Diego State · L 10–44; defense 21.7 percentile2025 Week 8: Nevada at New Mexico · L 22–24; defense 35.6 percentile2025 Week 9: Nevada vs. Boise State · L 3–24; defense 77.6 percentile2025 Week 11: Nevada at Utah State · L 14–51; defense 9.5 percentile2025 Week 12: Nevada vs. San José State · W 55–10; defense 55.2 percentile2025 Week 13: Nevada at Wyoming · W 13–7; defense 86.4 percentile2025 Week 14: Nevada vs. UNLV · L 17–42; defense 1.6 percentile2026 Week 1: Nevada vs. Western Kentucky · W 49–14; defense 78.6 percentile2014 defense season mean: 36.1 percentile2015 defense season mean: 38.0 percentile2016 defense season mean: 22.7 percentile2017 defense season mean: 29.0 percentile2018 defense season mean: 69.4 percentile2019 defense season mean: 44.8 percentile2020 defense season mean: 54.5 percentile2021 defense season mean: 37.0 percentile2022 defense season mean: 20.0 percentile2023 defense season mean: 32.4 percentile2024 defense season mean: 27.3 percentile2025 defense season mean: 38.7 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 43.3 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 78.6 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2017Jay Norvell
2021Jay Norvell / Vai Taua
2022Ken Wilson
2024Jeff Choate

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateJeff Choate1
35.3 estimate98.2 games-only average
43.3 estimate78.6 games-only average
2025Jeff Choate1224.638.7
2024Jeff ChoateCoaching change1352.027.3
2023Ken Wilson1111.132.4
2022Ken WilsonCoaching change1028.620.0
2021Jay Norvell / Vai TauaCoaching change1356.537.0
2020Jay Norvell965.554.5
2019Jay Norvell1229.444.8
2018Jay Norvell1332.369.4
2017Jay NorvellCoaching change1151.929.0
2016Brian Polian1040.122.7
2015Brian Polian1341.038.0
2014Brian Polian1248.136.1