2014–2026 performance history

Mississippi State over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

SECHead coach: Jeff LebbyView Mississippi State games →
Offense · 2026 estimate75.3/100

96.4 average through 2 games

65.7 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate44.4/100

76.3 average through 2 games

36.1 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

Mississippi State individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.Mullen · ’14–’17Dan Mullen, 2014–2017Moorhead · ’18–’19Joe Moorhead, 2018–2019Leach · ’20–’22Mike Leach, 2020–2022ArnettZach Arnett, 2023Lebby · ’24–’26Jeff Lebby, 2024–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss · W 49–0; offense 75.4 percentile2014 Week 2: Mississippi State vs. UAB · W 47–34; offense 76.5 percentile2014 Week 3: Mississippi State at South Alabama · W 35–3; offense 95.1 percentile2014 Week 4: Mississippi State at LSU · W 34–29; offense 78.3 percentile2014 Week 6: Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M · W 48–31; offense 89.7 percentile2014 Week 7: Mississippi State vs. Auburn · W 38–23; offense 59.9 percentile2014 Week 9: Mississippi State at Kentucky · W 45–31; offense 74.0 percentile2014 Week 10: Mississippi State vs. Arkansas · W 17–10; offense 83.6 percentile2014 Week 11: Mississippi State vs. UT Martin · W 45–16; offense 65.2 percentile2014 Week 12: Mississippi State at Alabama · L 20–25; offense 48.4 percentile2014 Week 13: Mississippi State vs. Vanderbilt · W 51–0; offense 91.7 percentile2014 Week 14: Mississippi State at Ole Miss · L 17–31; offense 53.5 percentile2014 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Georgia Tech · L 34–49; offense 58.7 percentile2015 Week 1: Mississippi State at Southern Miss · W 34–16; offense 83.8 percentile2015 Week 2: Mississippi State vs. LSU · L 19–21; offense 20.3 percentile2015 Week 3: Mississippi State vs. Northwestern State · W 62–13; offense 96.6 percentile2015 Week 4: Mississippi State at Auburn · W 17–9; offense 23.9 percentile2015 Week 5: Mississippi State at Texas A&M · L 17–30; offense 63.0 percentile2015 Week 6: Mississippi State vs. Troy · W 45–17; offense 56.3 percentile2015 Week 7: Mississippi State vs. Louisiana Tech · W 45–20; offense 77.4 percentile2015 Week 8: Mississippi State vs. Kentucky · W 42–16; offense 94.1 percentile2015 Week 10: Mississippi State at Missouri · W 31–13; offense 76.6 percentile2015 Week 11: Mississippi State vs. Alabama · L 6–31; offense 45.1 percentile2015 Week 12: Mississippi State at Arkansas · W 51–50; offense 98.1 percentile2015 Week 13: Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss · L 27–38; offense 71.2 percentile2015 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. NC State · W 51–28; offense 97.5 percentile2016 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. South Alabama · L 20–21; offense 49.4 percentile2016 Week 2: Mississippi State vs. South Carolina · W 27–14; offense 63.1 percentile2016 Week 3: Mississippi State at LSU · L 20–23; offense 43.8 percentile2016 Week 4: Mississippi State at Massachusetts · W 47–35; offense 81.7 percentile2016 Week 6: Mississippi State vs. Auburn · L 14–38; offense 21.4 percentile2016 Week 7: Mississippi State at BYU · L 21–28; offense 26.6 percentile2016 Week 8: Mississippi State at Kentucky · L 38–40; offense 74.0 percentile2016 Week 9: Mississippi State vs. Samford · W 56–41; offense 61.0 percentile2016 Week 10: Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M · W 35–28; offense 88.3 percentile2016 Week 11: Mississippi State at Alabama · L 3–51; offense 31.4 percentile2016 Week 12: Mississippi State vs. Arkansas · L 42–58; offense 78.3 percentile2016 Week 13: Mississippi State at Ole Miss · W 55–20; offense 99.4 percentile2016 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Miami (OH) · W 17–16; offense 69.4 percentile2017 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Charleston Southern · W 49–0; offense 56.4 percentile2017 Week 2: Mississippi State at Louisiana Tech · W 57–21; offense 95.8 percentile2017 Week 3: Mississippi State vs. LSU · W 37–7; offense 97.5 percentile2017 Week 4: Mississippi State at Georgia · L 3–31; offense 40.0 percentile2017 Week 5: Mississippi State at Auburn · L 10–49; offense 44.3 percentile2017 Week 7: Mississippi State vs. BYU · W 35–10; offense 96.9 percentile2017 Week 8: Mississippi State vs. Kentucky · W 45–7; offense 73.5 percentile2017 Week 9: Mississippi State at Texas A&M · W 35–14; offense 64.2 percentile2017 Week 10: Mississippi State vs. Massachusetts · W 34–23; offense 66.5 percentile2017 Week 11: Mississippi State vs. Alabama · L 24–31; offense 84.8 percentile2017 Week 12: Mississippi State at Arkansas · W 28–21; offense 23.4 percentile2017 Week 13: Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss · L 28–31; offense 14.9 percentile2017 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Louisville · W 31–27; offense 69.8 percentile2018 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Stephen F. Austin · W 63–6; offense 81.7 percentile2018 Week 2: Mississippi State at Kansas State · W 31–10; offense 98.5 percentile2018 Week 3: Mississippi State vs. Louisiana · W 56–10; offense 99.1 percentile2018 Week 4: Mississippi State at Kentucky · L 7–28; offense 17.6 percentile2018 Week 5: Mississippi State vs. Florida · L 6–13; offense 18.7 percentile2018 Week 6: Mississippi State vs. Auburn · W 23–9; offense 76.4 percentile2018 Week 8: Mississippi State at LSU · L 3–19; offense 31.3 percentile2018 Week 9: Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M · W 28–13; offense 78.4 percentile2018 Week 10: Mississippi State vs. Louisiana Tech · W 45–3; offense 99.6 percentile2018 Week 11: Mississippi State at Alabama · L 0–24; offense 1.6 percentile2018 Week 12: Mississippi State vs. Arkansas · W 52–6; offense 98.3 percentile2018 Week 13: Mississippi State at Ole Miss · W 35–3; offense 66.3 percentile2018 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Iowa · L 22–27; offense 44.7 percentile2019 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Louisiana · W 38–28; offense 94.4 percentile2019 Week 2: Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss · W 38–15; offense 76.3 percentile2019 Week 3: Mississippi State vs. Kansas State · L 24–31; offense 35.5 percentile2019 Week 4: Mississippi State vs. Kentucky · W 28–13; offense 85.4 percentile2019 Week 5: Mississippi State at Auburn · L 23–56; offense 35.7 percentile2019 Week 7: Mississippi State at Tennessee · L 10–20; offense 50.6 percentile2019 Week 8: Mississippi State vs. LSU · L 13–36; offense 30.7 percentile2019 Week 9: Mississippi State at Texas A&M · L 30–49; offense 89.6 percentile2019 Week 10: Mississippi State at Arkansas · W 54–24; offense 95.9 percentile2019 Week 12: Mississippi State vs. Alabama · L 7–38; offense 17.2 percentile2019 Week 13: Mississippi State vs. Abilene Christian · W 45–7; offense 72.7 percentile2019 Week 14: Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss · W 21–20; offense 38.1 percentile2019 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Louisville · L 28–38; offense 25.9 percentile2020 Week 4: Mississippi State at LSU · W 44–34; offense 81.4 percentile2020 Week 5: Mississippi State vs. Arkansas · L 14–21; offense 29.2 percentile2020 Week 6: Mississippi State at Kentucky · L 2–24; offense 2.5 percentile2020 Week 7: Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M · L 14–28; offense 16.7 percentile2020 Week 9: Mississippi State at Alabama · L 0–41; offense 3.0 percentile2020 Week 10: Mississippi State vs. Vanderbilt · W 24–17; offense 3.1 percentile2020 Week 12: Mississippi State at Georgia · L 24–31; offense 73.1 percentile2020 Week 13: Mississippi State at Ole Miss · L 24–31; offense 16.2 percentile2020 Week 15: Mississippi State vs. Auburn · L 10–24; offense 20.4 percentile2020 Week 16: Mississippi State vs. Missouri · W 51–32; offense 77.6 percentile2020 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Tulsa · W 28–26; offense 64.4 percentile2021 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Louisiana Tech · W 35–34; offense 66.5 percentile2021 Week 2: Mississippi State vs. NC State · W 24–10; offense 23.6 percentile2021 Week 3: Mississippi State at Memphis · L 29–31; offense 85.8 percentile2021 Week 4: Mississippi State vs. LSU · L 25–28; offense 47.0 percentile2021 Week 5: Mississippi State at Texas A&M · W 26–22; offense 57.2 percentile2021 Week 7: Mississippi State vs. Alabama · L 9–49; offense 59.5 percentile2021 Week 8: Mississippi State at Vanderbilt · W 45–6; offense 84.7 percentile2021 Week 9: Mississippi State vs. Kentucky · W 31–17; offense 71.4 percentile2021 Week 10: Mississippi State at Arkansas · L 28–31; offense 81.8 percentile2021 Week 11: Mississippi State at Auburn · W 43–34; offense 85.4 percentile2021 Week 12: Mississippi State vs. Tennessee State · W 55–10; offense 78.1 percentile2021 Week 13: Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss · L 21–31; offense 52.6 percentile2021 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech · L 7–34; offense 11.5 percentile2022 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Memphis · W 49–23; offense 83.8 percentile2022 Week 2: Mississippi State at Arizona · W 39–17; offense 33.1 percentile2022 Week 3: Mississippi State at LSU · L 16–31; offense 13.8 percentile2022 Week 4: Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green · W 45–14; offense 71.4 percentile2022 Week 5: Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M · W 42–24; offense 92.8 percentile2022 Week 6: Mississippi State vs. Arkansas · W 40–17; offense 83.8 percentile2022 Week 7: Mississippi State at Kentucky · L 17–27; offense 17.9 percentile2022 Week 8: Mississippi State at Alabama · L 6–30; offense 26.4 percentile2022 Week 10: Mississippi State vs. Auburn · W 39–33; offense 7.2 percentile2022 Week 11: Mississippi State vs. Georgia · L 19–45; offense 41.3 percentile2022 Week 12: Mississippi State vs. East Tennessee State · W 56–7; offense 73.7 percentile2022 Week 13: Mississippi State at Ole Miss · W 24–22; offense 23.9 percentile2022 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Illinois · W 19–10; offense 66.8 percentile2023 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. SE Louisiana · W 48–7; offense 40.2 percentile2023 Week 2: Mississippi State vs. Arizona · W 31–24; offense 38.2 percentile2023 Week 3: Mississippi State vs. LSU · L 14–41; offense 2.4 percentile2023 Week 4: Mississippi State at South Carolina · L 30–37; offense 69.7 percentile2023 Week 5: Mississippi State vs. Alabama · L 17–40; offense 50.0 percentile2023 Week 6: Mississippi State vs. Western Michigan · W 41–28; offense 73.8 percentile2023 Week 8: Mississippi State at Arkansas · W 7–3; offense 1.3 percentile2023 Week 9: Mississippi State at Auburn · L 13–27; offense 17.2 percentile2023 Week 10: Mississippi State vs. Kentucky · L 3–24; offense 4.8 percentile2023 Week 11: Mississippi State at Texas A&M · L 10–51; offense 21.5 percentile2023 Week 13: Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss · L 7–17; offense 4.0 percentile2024 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Eastern Kentucky · W 56–7; offense 67.9 percentile2024 Week 2: Mississippi State at Arizona State · L 23–30; offense 56.1 percentile2024 Week 3: Mississippi State vs. Toledo · L 17–41; offense 51.4 percentile2024 Week 4: Mississippi State vs. Florida · L 28–45; offense 46.9 percentile2024 Week 5: Mississippi State at Texas · L 13–35; offense 54.8 percentile2024 Week 7: Mississippi State at Georgia · L 31–41; offense 54.2 percentile2024 Week 8: Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M · L 24–34; offense 48.8 percentile2024 Week 9: Mississippi State vs. Arkansas · L 25–58; offense 56.8 percentile2024 Week 10: Mississippi State vs. Massachusetts · W 45–20; offense 70.7 percentile2024 Week 11: Mississippi State at Tennessee · L 14–33; offense 54.4 percentile2024 Week 13: Mississippi State vs. Missouri · L 20–39; offense 75.1 percentile2024 Week 14: Mississippi State at Ole Miss · L 14–26; offense 46.3 percentile2025 Week 1: Mississippi State at Southern Miss · W 34–17; offense 88.2 percentile2025 Week 2: Mississippi State vs. Arizona State · W 24–20; offense 34.8 percentile2025 Week 3: Mississippi State vs. Alcorn State · W 63–0; offense 96.6 percentile2025 Week 4: Mississippi State vs. Northern Illinois · W 38–10; offense 88.7 percentile2025 Week 5: Mississippi State vs. Tennessee · L 34–41; offense 46.7 percentile2025 Week 8: Mississippi State at Florida · L 21–23; offense 36.5 percentile2025 Week 9: Mississippi State vs. Texas · L 38–45; offense 59.9 percentile2025 Week 10: Mississippi State at Arkansas · W 38–35; offense 36.7 percentile2025 Week 11: Mississippi State vs. Georgia · L 21–41; offense 59.4 percentile2025 Week 12: Mississippi State at Missouri · L 27–49; offense 67.5 percentile2025 Week 14: Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss · L 19–38; offense 68.4 percentile2025 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest · L 29–43; offense 63.8 percentile2026 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. UL Monroe · W 62–13; offense 95.9 percentile2026 Week 2: Mississippi State at Minnesota · W 38–13; offense 96.8 percentile2014 offense season mean: 75.6 percentile2015 offense season mean: 76.2 percentile2016 offense season mean: 65.3 percentile2017 offense season mean: 69.2 percentile2018 offense season mean: 72.0 percentile2019 offense season mean: 61.6 percentile2020 offense season mean: 28.0 percentile2021 offense season mean: 63.0 percentile2022 offense season mean: 48.8 percentile2023 offense season mean: 21.3 percentile2024 offense season mean: 57.2 percentile2025 offense season mean: 65.7 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 75.3 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 96.4 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss · W 49–0; defense 87.2 percentile2014 Week 2: Mississippi State vs. UAB · W 47–34; defense 65.7 percentile2014 Week 3: Mississippi State at South Alabama · W 35–3; defense 78.2 percentile2014 Week 4: Mississippi State at LSU · W 34–29; defense 71.4 percentile2014 Week 6: Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M · W 48–31; defense 60.9 percentile2014 Week 7: Mississippi State vs. Auburn · W 38–23; defense 73.6 percentile2014 Week 9: Mississippi State at Kentucky · W 45–31; defense 24.0 percentile2014 Week 10: Mississippi State vs. Arkansas · W 17–10; defense 83.8 percentile2014 Week 11: Mississippi State vs. UT Martin · W 45–16; defense 35.1 percentile2014 Week 12: Mississippi State at Alabama · L 20–25; defense 81.6 percentile2014 Week 13: Mississippi State vs. Vanderbilt · W 51–0; defense 95.0 percentile2014 Week 14: Mississippi State at Ole Miss · L 17–31; defense 37.9 percentile2014 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Georgia Tech · L 34–49; defense 6.2 percentile2015 Week 1: Mississippi State at Southern Miss · W 34–16; defense 97.1 percentile2015 Week 2: Mississippi State vs. LSU · L 19–21; defense 77.6 percentile2015 Week 3: Mississippi State vs. Northwestern State · W 62–13; defense 61.7 percentile2015 Week 4: Mississippi State at Auburn · W 17–9; defense 83.7 percentile2015 Week 5: Mississippi State at Texas A&M · L 17–30; defense 38.5 percentile2015 Week 6: Mississippi State vs. Troy · W 45–17; defense 93.2 percentile2015 Week 7: Mississippi State vs. Louisiana Tech · W 45–20; defense 48.0 percentile2015 Week 8: Mississippi State vs. Kentucky · W 42–16; defense 66.6 percentile2015 Week 10: Mississippi State at Missouri · W 31–13; defense 52.0 percentile2015 Week 11: Mississippi State vs. Alabama · L 6–31; defense 65.2 percentile2015 Week 12: Mississippi State at Arkansas · W 51–50; defense 49.0 percentile2015 Week 13: Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss · L 27–38; defense 29.3 percentile2015 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. NC State · W 51–28; defense 49.6 percentile2016 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. South Alabama · L 20–21; defense 51.0 percentile2016 Week 2: Mississippi State vs. South Carolina · W 27–14; defense 86.6 percentile2016 Week 3: Mississippi State at LSU · L 20–23; defense 68.3 percentile2016 Week 4: Mississippi State at Massachusetts · W 47–35; defense 30.6 percentile2016 Week 6: Mississippi State vs. Auburn · L 14–38; defense 18.0 percentile2016 Week 7: Mississippi State at BYU · L 21–28; defense 86.3 percentile2016 Week 8: Mississippi State at Kentucky · L 38–40; defense 20.9 percentile2016 Week 9: Mississippi State vs. Samford · W 56–41; defense 2.5 percentile2016 Week 10: Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M · W 35–28; defense 72.5 percentile2016 Week 11: Mississippi State at Alabama · L 3–51; defense 12.2 percentile2016 Week 12: Mississippi State vs. Arkansas · L 42–58; defense 1.7 percentile2016 Week 13: Mississippi State at Ole Miss · W 55–20; defense 48.8 percentile2016 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Miami (OH) · W 17–16; defense 34.7 percentile2017 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Charleston Southern · W 49–0; defense 91.7 percentile2017 Week 2: Mississippi State at Louisiana Tech · W 57–21; defense 53.2 percentile2017 Week 3: Mississippi State vs. LSU · W 37–7; defense 83.7 percentile2017 Week 4: Mississippi State at Georgia · L 3–31; defense 42.8 percentile2017 Week 5: Mississippi State at Auburn · L 10–49; defense 26.5 percentile2017 Week 7: Mississippi State vs. BYU · W 35–10; defense 78.1 percentile2017 Week 8: Mississippi State vs. Kentucky · W 45–7; defense 69.3 percentile2017 Week 9: Mississippi State at Texas A&M · W 35–14; defense 72.2 percentile2017 Week 10: Mississippi State vs. Massachusetts · W 34–23; defense 75.4 percentile2017 Week 11: Mississippi State vs. Alabama · L 24–31; defense 33.1 percentile2017 Week 12: Mississippi State at Arkansas · W 28–21; defense 98.6 percentile2017 Week 13: Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss · L 28–31; defense 71.4 percentile2017 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Louisville · W 31–27; defense 84.9 percentile2018 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Stephen F. Austin · W 63–6; defense 87.4 percentile2018 Week 2: Mississippi State at Kansas State · W 31–10; defense 88.6 percentile2018 Week 3: Mississippi State vs. Louisiana · W 56–10; defense 96.8 percentile2018 Week 4: Mississippi State at Kentucky · L 7–28; defense 60.3 percentile2018 Week 5: Mississippi State vs. Florida · L 6–13; defense 76.1 percentile2018 Week 6: Mississippi State vs. Auburn · W 23–9; defense 81.4 percentile2018 Week 8: Mississippi State at LSU · L 3–19; defense 92.2 percentile2018 Week 9: Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M · W 28–13; defense 82.7 percentile2018 Week 10: Mississippi State vs. Louisiana Tech · W 45–3; defense 65.1 percentile2018 Week 11: Mississippi State at Alabama · L 0–24; defense 96.4 percentile2018 Week 12: Mississippi State vs. Arkansas · W 52–6; defense 89.3 percentile2018 Week 13: Mississippi State at Ole Miss · W 35–3; defense 100.0 percentile2018 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Iowa · L 22–27; defense 82.6 percentile2019 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Louisiana · W 38–28; defense 91.6 percentile2019 Week 2: Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss · W 38–15; defense 46.4 percentile2019 Week 3: Mississippi State vs. Kansas State · L 24–31; defense 34.4 percentile2019 Week 4: Mississippi State vs. Kentucky · W 28–13; defense 77.0 percentile2019 Week 5: Mississippi State at Auburn · L 23–56; defense 1.8 percentile2019 Week 7: Mississippi State at Tennessee · L 10–20; defense 44.9 percentile2019 Week 8: Mississippi State vs. LSU · L 13–36; defense 64.8 percentile2019 Week 9: Mississippi State at Texas A&M · L 30–49; defense 2.1 percentile2019 Week 10: Mississippi State at Arkansas · W 54–24; defense 47.8 percentile2019 Week 12: Mississippi State vs. Alabama · L 7–38; defense 16.9 percentile2019 Week 13: Mississippi State vs. Abilene Christian · W 45–7; defense 36.4 percentile2019 Week 14: Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss · W 21–20; defense 60.5 percentile2019 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Louisville · L 28–38; defense 36.6 percentile2020 Week 4: Mississippi State at LSU · W 44–34; defense 50.1 percentile2020 Week 5: Mississippi State vs. Arkansas · L 14–21; defense 93.1 percentile2020 Week 6: Mississippi State at Kentucky · L 2–24; defense 97.0 percentile2020 Week 7: Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M · L 14–28; defense 28.7 percentile2020 Week 9: Mississippi State at Alabama · L 0–41; defense 78.4 percentile2020 Week 10: Mississippi State vs. Vanderbilt · W 24–17; defense 27.0 percentile2020 Week 12: Mississippi State at Georgia · L 24–31; defense 47.0 percentile2020 Week 13: Mississippi State at Ole Miss · L 24–31; defense 58.6 percentile2020 Week 15: Mississippi State vs. Auburn · L 10–24; defense 45.9 percentile2020 Week 16: Mississippi State vs. Missouri · W 51–32; defense 42.3 percentile2020 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Tulsa · W 28–26; defense 26.1 percentile2021 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Louisiana Tech · W 35–34; defense 48.4 percentile2021 Week 2: Mississippi State vs. NC State · W 24–10; defense 87.4 percentile2021 Week 3: Mississippi State at Memphis · L 29–31; defense 96.5 percentile2021 Week 4: Mississippi State vs. LSU · L 25–28; defense 33.9 percentile2021 Week 5: Mississippi State at Texas A&M · W 26–22; defense 62.2 percentile2021 Week 7: Mississippi State vs. Alabama · L 9–49; defense 11.3 percentile2021 Week 8: Mississippi State at Vanderbilt · W 45–6; defense 91.7 percentile2021 Week 9: Mississippi State vs. Kentucky · W 31–17; defense 92.2 percentile2021 Week 10: Mississippi State at Arkansas · L 28–31; defense 30.4 percentile2021 Week 11: Mississippi State at Auburn · W 43–34; defense 36.4 percentile2021 Week 12: Mississippi State vs. Tennessee State · W 55–10; defense 53.9 percentile2021 Week 13: Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss · L 21–31; defense 44.9 percentile2021 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech · L 7–34; defense 22.3 percentile2022 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Memphis · W 49–23; defense 69.1 percentile2022 Week 2: Mississippi State at Arizona · W 39–17; defense 99.5 percentile2022 Week 3: Mississippi State at LSU · L 16–31; defense 66.5 percentile2022 Week 4: Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green · W 45–14; defense 74.7 percentile2022 Week 5: Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M · W 42–24; defense 14.2 percentile2022 Week 6: Mississippi State vs. Arkansas · W 40–17; defense 42.6 percentile2022 Week 7: Mississippi State at Kentucky · L 17–27; defense 6.6 percentile2022 Week 8: Mississippi State at Alabama · L 6–30; defense 89.3 percentile2022 Week 10: Mississippi State vs. Auburn · W 39–33; defense 53.7 percentile2022 Week 11: Mississippi State vs. Georgia · L 19–45; defense 64.2 percentile2022 Week 12: Mississippi State vs. East Tennessee State · W 56–7; defense 72.8 percentile2022 Week 13: Mississippi State at Ole Miss · W 24–22; defense 98.3 percentile2022 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Illinois · W 19–10; defense 86.8 percentile2023 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. SE Louisiana · W 48–7; defense 62.7 percentile2023 Week 2: Mississippi State vs. Arizona · W 31–24; defense 82.4 percentile2023 Week 3: Mississippi State vs. LSU · L 14–41; defense 34.7 percentile2023 Week 4: Mississippi State at South Carolina · L 30–37; defense 14.7 percentile2023 Week 5: Mississippi State vs. Alabama · L 17–40; defense 38.9 percentile2023 Week 6: Mississippi State vs. Western Michigan · W 41–28; defense 50.8 percentile2023 Week 8: Mississippi State at Arkansas · W 7–3; defense 90.0 percentile2023 Week 9: Mississippi State at Auburn · L 13–27; defense 39.9 percentile2023 Week 10: Mississippi State vs. Kentucky · L 3–24; defense 76.3 percentile2023 Week 11: Mississippi State at Texas A&M · L 10–51; defense 32.4 percentile2023 Week 13: Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss · L 7–17; defense 71.9 percentile2024 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Eastern Kentucky · W 56–7; defense 41.8 percentile2024 Week 2: Mississippi State at Arizona State · L 23–30; defense 41.7 percentile2024 Week 3: Mississippi State vs. Toledo · L 17–41; defense 6.6 percentile2024 Week 4: Mississippi State vs. Florida · L 28–45; defense 0.1 percentile2024 Week 5: Mississippi State at Texas · L 13–35; defense 24.0 percentile2024 Week 7: Mississippi State at Georgia · L 31–41; defense 14.6 percentile2024 Week 8: Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M · L 24–34; defense 18.0 percentile2024 Week 9: Mississippi State vs. Arkansas · L 25–58; defense 4.4 percentile2024 Week 10: Mississippi State vs. Massachusetts · W 45–20; defense 56.0 percentile2024 Week 11: Mississippi State at Tennessee · L 14–33; defense 52.2 percentile2024 Week 13: Mississippi State vs. Missouri · L 20–39; defense 10.4 percentile2024 Week 14: Mississippi State at Ole Miss · L 14–26; defense 86.0 percentile2025 Week 1: Mississippi State at Southern Miss · W 34–17; defense 91.1 percentile2025 Week 2: Mississippi State vs. Arizona State · W 24–20; defense 71.1 percentile2025 Week 3: Mississippi State vs. Alcorn State · W 63–0; defense 60.0 percentile2025 Week 4: Mississippi State vs. Northern Illinois · W 38–10; defense 65.2 percentile2025 Week 5: Mississippi State vs. Tennessee · L 34–41; defense 58.2 percentile2025 Week 8: Mississippi State at Florida · L 21–23; defense 15.3 percentile2025 Week 9: Mississippi State vs. Texas · L 38–45; defense 71.9 percentile2025 Week 10: Mississippi State at Arkansas · W 38–35; defense 39.5 percentile2025 Week 11: Mississippi State vs. Georgia · L 21–41; defense 0.4 percentile2025 Week 12: Mississippi State at Missouri · L 27–49; defense 8.2 percentile2025 Week 14: Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss · L 19–38; defense 19.7 percentile2025 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest · L 29–43; defense 8.6 percentile2026 Week 1: Mississippi State vs. UL Monroe · W 62–13; defense 68.2 percentile2026 Week 2: Mississippi State at Minnesota · W 38–13; defense 83.2 percentile2014 defense season mean: 63.2 percentile2015 defense season mean: 66.0 percentile2016 defense season mean: 36.2 percentile2017 defense season mean: 71.9 percentile2018 defense season mean: 89.4 percentile2019 defense season mean: 38.8 percentile2020 defense season mean: 57.9 percentile2021 defense season mean: 58.4 percentile2022 defense season mean: 70.4 percentile2023 defense season mean: 55.1 percentile2024 defense season mean: 21.4 percentile2025 defense season mean: 36.1 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 44.4 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 76.3 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2017Dan Mullen / Greg Knox
2018Joe Moorhead
2020Mike Leach
2022Mike Leach / Zach Arnett
2023Zach Arnett / Greg Knox
2024Jeff Lebby

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateJeff Lebby2
75.3 estimate96.4 games-only average
44.4 estimate76.3 games-only average
2025Jeff Lebby1265.736.1
2024Jeff LebbyCoaching change1257.221.4
2023Zach Arnett / Greg KnoxCoaching change1121.355.1
2022Mike Leach / Zach ArnettCoaching change1348.870.4
2021Mike Leach1363.058.4
2020Mike LeachCoaching change1128.057.9
2019Joe Moorhead1361.638.8
2018Joe MoorheadCoaching change1372.089.4
2017Dan Mullen / Greg KnoxCoaching change1369.271.9
2016Dan Mullen1365.336.2
2015Dan Mullen1376.266.0
2014Dan Mullen1375.663.2