2014–2026 performance history

Buffalo over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

Mid-AmericanHead coach: Pete LemboView Buffalo games →
Offense · 2026 estimate21.0/100

8.6 average through 1 game

23.1 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate46.5/100

40.9 average through 1 game

47.2 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

Buffalo individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.QuinnJeff Quinn, 2014Leipold · ’15–’20Lance Leipold, 2015–2020Linguist · ’21–’23Maurice Linguist, 2021–2023Lembo · ’24–’26Pete Lembo, 2024–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Buffalo vs. Duquesne · W 38–28; offense 32.9 percentile2014 Week 2: Buffalo at Army · L 39–47; offense 73.7 percentile2014 Week 3: Buffalo vs. Baylor · L 21–63; offense 26.5 percentile2014 Week 4: Buffalo vs. Norfolk State · W 36–7; offense 35.4 percentile2014 Week 5: Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) · W 35–27; offense 54.2 percentile2014 Week 6: Buffalo at Bowling Green · L 35–36; offense 57.3 percentile2014 Week 7: Buffalo at Eastern Michigan · L 27–37; offense 19.3 percentile2014 Week 9: Buffalo vs. Central Michigan · L 14–20; offense 14.4 percentile2014 Week 11: Buffalo at Ohio · L 14–37; offense 0.9 percentile2014 Week 12: Buffalo vs. Akron · W 55–24; offense 95.5 percentile2014 Week 14: Buffalo at Massachusetts · W 41–21; offense 91.1 percentile2015 Week 1: Buffalo vs. UAlbany · W 51–14; offense 49.2 percentile2015 Week 2: Buffalo at Penn State · L 14–27; offense 27.0 percentile2015 Week 3: Buffalo at Florida Atlantic · W 33–15; offense 19.7 percentile2015 Week 4: Buffalo vs. Nevada · L 21–24; offense 43.2 percentile2015 Week 5: Buffalo vs. Bowling Green · L 22–28; offense 47.7 percentile2015 Week 7: Buffalo at Central Michigan · L 14–51; offense 23.1 percentile2015 Week 8: Buffalo vs. Ohio · W 41–17; offense 41.4 percentile2015 Week 9: Buffalo at Miami (OH) · W 29–24; offense 46.4 percentile2015 Week 11: Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois · L 30–41; offense 38.6 percentile2015 Week 12: Buffalo at Akron · L 21–42; offense 46.1 percentile2015 Week 13: Buffalo vs. Massachusetts · L 26–31; offense 33.4 percentile2016 Week 1: Buffalo vs. UAlbany · L 16–22; offense 8.9 percentile2016 Week 3: Buffalo at Nevada · L 14–38; offense 31.0 percentile2016 Week 4: Buffalo vs. Army · W 23–20; offense 20.9 percentile2016 Week 5: Buffalo at Boston College · L 3–35; offense 1.4 percentile2016 Week 6: Buffalo vs. Kent State · L 20–44; offense 40.8 percentile2016 Week 7: Buffalo vs. Ball State · L 21–31; offense 32.4 percentile2016 Week 8: Buffalo at Northern Illinois · L 7–44; offense 21.2 percentile2016 Week 9: Buffalo vs. Akron · W 41–20; offense 64.8 percentile2016 Week 10: Buffalo at Ohio · L 10–34; offense 64.3 percentile2016 Week 11: Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) · L 24–35; offense 30.1 percentile2016 Week 12: Buffalo at Western Michigan · L 0–38; offense 6.4 percentile2016 Week 13: Buffalo at Bowling Green · L 19–27; offense 22.0 percentile2017 Week 1: Buffalo at Minnesota · L 7–17; offense 5.2 percentile2017 Week 2: Buffalo at Army · L 17–21; offense 40.7 percentile2017 Week 3: Buffalo vs. Colgate · W 33–10; offense 83.2 percentile2017 Week 4: Buffalo vs. Florida Atlantic · W 34–31; offense 68.0 percentile2017 Week 5: Buffalo at Kent State · W 27–13; offense 42.3 percentile2017 Week 6: Buffalo vs. Western Michigan · L 68–71; offense 61.9 percentile2017 Week 7: Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois · L 13–14; offense 32.9 percentile2017 Week 8: Buffalo at Miami (OH) · L 14–24; offense 26.5 percentile2017 Week 9: Buffalo at Akron · L 20–21; offense 50.2 percentile2017 Week 11: Buffalo vs. Bowling Green · W 38–28; offense 62.8 percentile2017 Week 12: Buffalo at Ball State · W 40–24; offense 79.9 percentile2017 Week 13: Buffalo vs. Ohio · W 31–24; offense 74.1 percentile2018 Week 1: Buffalo vs. Delaware State · W 48–10; offense 45.1 percentile2018 Week 2: Buffalo at Temple · W 36–29; offense 64.4 percentile2018 Week 3: Buffalo vs. Eastern Michigan · W 35–28; offense 89.5 percentile2018 Week 4: Buffalo at Rutgers · W 42–13; offense 33.9 percentile2018 Week 5: Buffalo vs. Army · L 13–42; offense 19.5 percentile2018 Week 6: Buffalo at Central Michigan · W 34–24; offense 88.8 percentile2018 Week 7: Buffalo vs. Akron · W 24–6; offense 57.9 percentile2018 Week 8: Buffalo at Toledo · W 31–17; offense 20.6 percentile2018 Week 10: Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) · W 51–42; offense 80.6 percentile2018 Week 11: Buffalo vs. Kent State · W 48–14; offense 70.1 percentile2018 Week 12: Buffalo at Ohio · L 17–52; offense 43.4 percentile2018 Week 13: Buffalo at Bowling Green · W 44–14; offense 82.5 percentile2018 Week 14: Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois · L 29–30; offense 83.5 percentile2018 Week 1: Buffalo vs. Troy · L 32–42; offense 78.6 percentile2019 Week 1: Buffalo vs. Robert Morris · W 38–10; offense 73.5 percentile2019 Week 2: Buffalo at Penn State · L 13–45; offense 35.2 percentile2019 Week 3: Buffalo at Liberty · L 17–35; offense 32.2 percentile2019 Week 4: Buffalo vs. Temple · W 38–22; offense 39.7 percentile2019 Week 5: Buffalo at Miami (OH) · L 20–34; offense 49.9 percentile2019 Week 6: Buffalo vs. Ohio · L 20–21; offense 55.6 percentile2019 Week 8: Buffalo at Akron · W 21–0; offense 18.0 percentile2019 Week 9: Buffalo vs. Central Michigan · W 43–20; offense 56.6 percentile2019 Week 10: Buffalo at Eastern Michigan · W 43–14; offense 62.9 percentile2019 Week 12: Buffalo at Kent State · L 27–30; offense 42.4 percentile2019 Week 13: Buffalo vs. Toledo · W 49–30; offense 81.4 percentile2019 Week 14: Buffalo vs. Bowling Green · W 49–7; offense 77.4 percentile2019 Week 1: Buffalo vs. Charlotte · W 31–9; offense 31.3 percentile2020 Week 10: Buffalo at Northern Illinois · W 49–30; offense 68.9 percentile2020 Week 11: Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) · W 42–10; offense 95.4 percentile2020 Week 12: Buffalo at Bowling Green · W 42–17; offense 97.3 percentile2020 Week 13: Buffalo vs. Kent State · W 70–41; offense 99.8 percentile2020 Week 15: Buffalo vs. Akron · W 56–7; offense 90.6 percentile2020 Week 16: Buffalo vs. Ball State · L 28–38; offense 57.5 percentile2020 Week 1: Buffalo vs. Marshall · W 17–10; offense 55.1 percentile2021 Week 2: Buffalo at Nebraska · L 3–28; offense 25.5 percentile2021 Week 3: Buffalo vs. Coastal Carolina · L 25–28; offense 51.6 percentile2021 Week 4: Buffalo at Old Dominion · W 35–34; offense 19.6 percentile2021 Week 5: Buffalo vs. Western Michigan · L 17–24; offense 24.2 percentile2021 Week 6: Buffalo at Kent State · L 38–48; offense 50.1 percentile2021 Week 7: Buffalo vs. Ohio · W 27–26; offense 29.3 percentile2021 Week 9: Buffalo vs. Bowling Green · L 44–56; offense 52.1 percentile2021 Week 12: Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois · L 27–33; offense 16.9 percentile2021 Week 13: Buffalo at Ball State · L 3–20; offense 18.6 percentile2022 Week 1: Buffalo at Maryland · L 10–31; offense 12.2 percentile2022 Week 2: Buffalo vs. Holy Cross · L 31–37; offense 31.1 percentile2022 Week 3: Buffalo at Coastal Carolina · L 26–38; offense 26.6 percentile2022 Week 4: Buffalo at Eastern Michigan · W 50–31; offense 79.0 percentile2022 Week 6: Buffalo at Bowling Green · W 38–7; offense 85.1 percentile2022 Week 7: Buffalo at Massachusetts · W 34–7; offense 74.1 percentile2022 Week 10: Buffalo at Ohio · L 24–45; offense 19.8 percentile2022 Week 11: Buffalo at Central Michigan · L 27–31; offense 51.4 percentile2022 Week 14: Buffalo vs. Akron · W 23–22; offense 2.5 percentile2022 Week 1: Buffalo vs. Georgia Southern · W 23–21; offense 26.3 percentile2023 Week 1: Buffalo at Wisconsin · L 17–38; offense 14.1 percentile2023 Week 3: Buffalo vs. Liberty · L 27–55; offense 28.9 percentile2023 Week 4: Buffalo at Louisiana · L 38–45; offense 42.4 percentile2023 Week 5: Buffalo at Akron · W 13–10; offense 19.5 percentile2023 Week 6: Buffalo vs. Central Michigan · W 37–13; offense 24.2 percentile2023 Week 7: Buffalo vs. Bowling Green · L 14–24; offense 10.9 percentile2023 Week 8: Buffalo at Kent State · W 24–6; offense 26.1 percentile2023 Week 10: Buffalo at Toledo · L 13–31; offense 14.5 percentile2023 Week 11: Buffalo vs. Ohio · L 10–20; offense 25.6 percentile2023 Week 12: Buffalo at Miami (OH) · L 10–23; offense 41.0 percentile2023 Week 13: Buffalo vs. Eastern Michigan · L 11–24; offense 24.7 percentile2024 Week 1: Buffalo vs. Lafayette · W 30–13; offense 11.5 percentile2024 Week 2: Buffalo at Missouri · L 0–38; offense 4.2 percentile2024 Week 3: Buffalo vs. Massachusetts · W 34–3; offense 18.1 percentile2024 Week 4: Buffalo at Northern Illinois · W 23–20; offense 18.8 percentile2024 Week 5: Buffalo at UConn · L 3–47; offense 5.2 percentile2024 Week 8: Buffalo vs. Western Michigan · L 41–48; offense 45.7 percentile2024 Week 9: Buffalo at Ohio · L 16–47; offense 69.4 percentile2024 Week 10: Buffalo at Akron · W 41–30; offense 33.1 percentile2024 Week 12: Buffalo vs. Ball State · W 51–48; offense 35.8 percentile2024 Week 13: Buffalo at Eastern Michigan · W 37–20; offense 33.7 percentile2024 Week 14: Buffalo vs. Kent State · W 43–7; offense 33.4 percentile2024 Week 1: Buffalo vs. Liberty · W 26–7; offense 46.1 percentile2025 Week 1: Buffalo at Minnesota · L 10–23; offense 0.7 percentile2025 Week 2: Buffalo vs. Saint Francis · W 45–6; offense 55.8 percentile2025 Week 3: Buffalo at Kent State · W 31–28; offense 33.5 percentile2025 Week 4: Buffalo vs. Troy · L 17–21; offense 8.3 percentile2025 Week 6: Buffalo vs. Eastern Michigan · W 31–30; offense 16.7 percentile2025 Week 8: Buffalo at Massachusetts · W 28–21; offense 7.2 percentile2025 Week 9: Buffalo vs. Akron · L 16–24; offense 12.7 percentile2025 Week 10: Buffalo at Bowling Green · W 28–3; offense 34.7 percentile2025 Week 12: Buffalo at Central Michigan · L 19–38; offense 49.3 percentile2025 Week 13: Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) · L 20–37; offense 30.4 percentile2025 Week 14: Buffalo vs. Ohio · L 26–31; offense 69.0 percentile2026 Week 1: Buffalo vs. UAlbany · W 21–17; offense 8.6 percentile2014 offense season mean: 43.6 percentile2015 offense season mean: 37.3 percentile2016 offense season mean: 24.2 percentile2017 offense season mean: 51.4 percentile2018 offense season mean: 63.3 percentile2019 offense season mean: 50.6 percentile2020 offense season mean: 89.2 percentile2021 offense season mean: 30.8 percentile2022 offense season mean: 37.5 percentile2023 offense season mean: 23.7 percentile2024 offense season mean: 26.1 percentile2025 offense season mean: 23.1 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 21.0 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 8.6 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Buffalo vs. Duquesne · W 38–28; defense 25.0 percentile2014 Week 2: Buffalo at Army · L 39–47; defense 8.7 percentile2014 Week 3: Buffalo vs. Baylor · L 21–63; defense 17.7 percentile2014 Week 4: Buffalo vs. Norfolk State · W 36–7; defense 59.8 percentile2014 Week 5: Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) · W 35–27; defense 51.4 percentile2014 Week 6: Buffalo at Bowling Green · L 35–36; defense 18.2 percentile2014 Week 7: Buffalo at Eastern Michigan · L 27–37; defense 6.4 percentile2014 Week 9: Buffalo vs. Central Michigan · L 14–20; defense 66.6 percentile2014 Week 11: Buffalo at Ohio · L 14–37; defense 22.6 percentile2014 Week 12: Buffalo vs. Akron · W 55–24; defense 78.6 percentile2014 Week 14: Buffalo at Massachusetts · W 41–21; defense 57.4 percentile2015 Week 1: Buffalo vs. UAlbany · W 51–14; defense 16.8 percentile2015 Week 2: Buffalo at Penn State · L 14–27; defense 48.7 percentile2015 Week 3: Buffalo at Florida Atlantic · W 33–15; defense 51.1 percentile2015 Week 4: Buffalo vs. Nevada · L 21–24; defense 42.5 percentile2015 Week 5: Buffalo vs. Bowling Green · L 22–28; defense 32.0 percentile2015 Week 7: Buffalo at Central Michigan · L 14–51; defense 12.4 percentile2015 Week 8: Buffalo vs. Ohio · W 41–17; defense 63.3 percentile2015 Week 9: Buffalo at Miami (OH) · W 29–24; defense 45.6 percentile2015 Week 11: Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois · L 30–41; defense 9.1 percentile2015 Week 12: Buffalo at Akron · L 21–42; defense 33.7 percentile2015 Week 13: Buffalo vs. Massachusetts · L 26–31; defense 20.7 percentile2016 Week 1: Buffalo vs. UAlbany · L 16–22; defense 28.2 percentile2016 Week 3: Buffalo at Nevada · L 14–38; defense 10.5 percentile2016 Week 4: Buffalo vs. Army · W 23–20; defense 44.0 percentile2016 Week 5: Buffalo at Boston College · L 3–35; defense 32.0 percentile2016 Week 6: Buffalo vs. Kent State · L 20–44; defense 3.5 percentile2016 Week 7: Buffalo vs. Ball State · L 21–31; defense 24.4 percentile2016 Week 8: Buffalo at Northern Illinois · L 7–44; defense 21.8 percentile2016 Week 9: Buffalo vs. Akron · W 41–20; defense 87.9 percentile2016 Week 10: Buffalo at Ohio · L 10–34; defense 23.8 percentile2016 Week 11: Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) · L 24–35; defense 44.4 percentile2016 Week 12: Buffalo at Western Michigan · L 0–38; defense 51.6 percentile2016 Week 13: Buffalo at Bowling Green · L 19–27; defense 31.3 percentile2017 Week 1: Buffalo at Minnesota · L 7–17; defense 62.1 percentile2017 Week 2: Buffalo at Army · L 17–21; defense 81.9 percentile2017 Week 3: Buffalo vs. Colgate · W 33–10; defense 36.0 percentile2017 Week 4: Buffalo vs. Florida Atlantic · W 34–31; defense 53.5 percentile2017 Week 5: Buffalo at Kent State · W 27–13; defense 24.4 percentile2017 Week 6: Buffalo vs. Western Michigan · L 68–71; defense 9.7 percentile2017 Week 7: Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois · L 13–14; defense 49.7 percentile2017 Week 8: Buffalo at Miami (OH) · L 14–24; defense 59.7 percentile2017 Week 9: Buffalo at Akron · L 20–21; defense 24.2 percentile2017 Week 11: Buffalo vs. Bowling Green · W 38–28; defense 30.3 percentile2017 Week 12: Buffalo at Ball State · W 40–24; defense 20.7 percentile2017 Week 13: Buffalo vs. Ohio · W 31–24; defense 70.3 percentile2018 Week 1: Buffalo vs. Delaware State · W 48–10; defense 38.5 percentile2018 Week 2: Buffalo at Temple · W 36–29; defense 63.6 percentile2018 Week 3: Buffalo vs. Eastern Michigan · W 35–28; defense 32.7 percentile2018 Week 4: Buffalo at Rutgers · W 42–13; defense 78.9 percentile2018 Week 5: Buffalo vs. Army · L 13–42; defense 20.7 percentile2018 Week 6: Buffalo at Central Michigan · W 34–24; defense 22.4 percentile2018 Week 7: Buffalo vs. Akron · W 24–6; defense 59.0 percentile2018 Week 8: Buffalo at Toledo · W 31–17; defense 83.8 percentile2018 Week 10: Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) · W 51–42; defense 23.2 percentile2018 Week 11: Buffalo vs. Kent State · W 48–14; defense 95.5 percentile2018 Week 12: Buffalo at Ohio · L 17–52; defense 4.5 percentile2018 Week 13: Buffalo at Bowling Green · W 44–14; defense 43.5 percentile2018 Week 14: Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois · L 29–30; defense 17.6 percentile2018 Week 1: Buffalo vs. Troy · L 32–42; defense 32.0 percentile2019 Week 1: Buffalo vs. Robert Morris · W 38–10; defense 34.5 percentile2019 Week 2: Buffalo at Penn State · L 13–45; defense 55.1 percentile2019 Week 3: Buffalo at Liberty · L 17–35; defense 17.2 percentile2019 Week 4: Buffalo vs. Temple · W 38–22; defense 49.8 percentile2019 Week 5: Buffalo at Miami (OH) · L 20–34; defense 81.7 percentile2019 Week 6: Buffalo vs. Ohio · L 20–21; defense 70.9 percentile2019 Week 8: Buffalo at Akron · W 21–0; defense 88.0 percentile2019 Week 9: Buffalo vs. Central Michigan · W 43–20; defense 57.4 percentile2019 Week 10: Buffalo at Eastern Michigan · W 43–14; defense 86.5 percentile2019 Week 12: Buffalo at Kent State · L 27–30; defense 61.5 percentile2019 Week 13: Buffalo vs. Toledo · W 49–30; defense 35.0 percentile2019 Week 14: Buffalo vs. Bowling Green · W 49–7; defense 68.4 percentile2019 Week 1: Buffalo vs. Charlotte · W 31–9; defense 77.6 percentile2020 Week 10: Buffalo at Northern Illinois · W 49–30; defense 47.7 percentile2020 Week 11: Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) · W 42–10; defense 88.6 percentile2020 Week 12: Buffalo at Bowling Green · W 42–17; defense 47.8 percentile2020 Week 13: Buffalo vs. Kent State · W 70–41; defense 36.1 percentile2020 Week 15: Buffalo vs. Akron · W 56–7; defense 84.2 percentile2020 Week 16: Buffalo vs. Ball State · L 28–38; defense 52.2 percentile2020 Week 1: Buffalo vs. Marshall · W 17–10; defense 81.4 percentile2021 Week 2: Buffalo at Nebraska · L 3–28; defense 15.0 percentile2021 Week 3: Buffalo vs. Coastal Carolina · L 25–28; defense 60.2 percentile2021 Week 4: Buffalo at Old Dominion · W 35–34; defense 32.4 percentile2021 Week 5: Buffalo vs. Western Michigan · L 17–24; defense 39.6 percentile2021 Week 6: Buffalo at Kent State · L 38–48; defense 4.3 percentile2021 Week 7: Buffalo vs. Ohio · W 27–26; defense 37.7 percentile2021 Week 9: Buffalo vs. Bowling Green · L 44–56; defense 22.2 percentile2021 Week 12: Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois · L 27–33; defense 48.4 percentile2021 Week 13: Buffalo at Ball State · L 3–20; defense 81.5 percentile2022 Week 1: Buffalo at Maryland · L 10–31; defense 42.3 percentile2022 Week 2: Buffalo vs. Holy Cross · L 31–37; defense 1.1 percentile2022 Week 3: Buffalo at Coastal Carolina · L 26–38; defense 23.7 percentile2022 Week 4: Buffalo at Eastern Michigan · W 50–31; defense 30.6 percentile2022 Week 6: Buffalo at Bowling Green · W 38–7; defense 48.0 percentile2022 Week 7: Buffalo at Massachusetts · W 34–7; defense 82.5 percentile2022 Week 10: Buffalo at Ohio · L 24–45; defense 14.1 percentile2022 Week 11: Buffalo at Central Michigan · L 27–31; defense 19.9 percentile2022 Week 14: Buffalo vs. Akron · W 23–22; defense 83.1 percentile2022 Week 1: Buffalo vs. Georgia Southern · W 23–21; defense 47.9 percentile2023 Week 1: Buffalo at Wisconsin · L 17–38; defense 25.3 percentile2023 Week 3: Buffalo vs. Liberty · L 27–55; defense 38.8 percentile2023 Week 4: Buffalo at Louisiana · L 38–45; defense 28.0 percentile2023 Week 5: Buffalo at Akron · W 13–10; defense 73.8 percentile2023 Week 6: Buffalo vs. Central Michigan · W 37–13; defense 64.8 percentile2023 Week 7: Buffalo vs. Bowling Green · L 14–24; defense 81.8 percentile2023 Week 8: Buffalo at Kent State · W 24–6; defense 92.0 percentile2023 Week 10: Buffalo at Toledo · L 13–31; defense 74.6 percentile2023 Week 11: Buffalo vs. Ohio · L 10–20; defense 42.9 percentile2023 Week 12: Buffalo at Miami (OH) · L 10–23; defense 25.8 percentile2023 Week 13: Buffalo vs. Eastern Michigan · L 11–24; defense 36.5 percentile2024 Week 1: Buffalo vs. Lafayette · W 30–13; defense 54.8 percentile2024 Week 2: Buffalo at Missouri · L 0–38; defense 8.3 percentile2024 Week 3: Buffalo vs. Massachusetts · W 34–3; defense 92.5 percentile2024 Week 4: Buffalo at Northern Illinois · W 23–20; defense 64.4 percentile2024 Week 5: Buffalo at UConn · L 3–47; defense 5.5 percentile2024 Week 8: Buffalo vs. Western Michigan · L 41–48; defense 11.3 percentile2024 Week 9: Buffalo at Ohio · L 16–47; defense 10.2 percentile2024 Week 10: Buffalo at Akron · W 41–30; defense 29.4 percentile2024 Week 12: Buffalo vs. Ball State · W 51–48; defense 2.6 percentile2024 Week 13: Buffalo at Eastern Michigan · W 37–20; defense 33.0 percentile2024 Week 14: Buffalo vs. Kent State · W 43–7; defense 75.8 percentile2024 Week 1: Buffalo vs. Liberty · W 26–7; defense 98.5 percentile2025 Week 1: Buffalo at Minnesota · L 10–23; defense 11.8 percentile2025 Week 2: Buffalo vs. Saint Francis · W 45–6; defense 76.0 percentile2025 Week 3: Buffalo at Kent State · W 31–28; defense 36.1 percentile2025 Week 4: Buffalo vs. Troy · L 17–21; defense 30.4 percentile2025 Week 6: Buffalo vs. Eastern Michigan · W 31–30; defense 71.2 percentile2025 Week 8: Buffalo at Massachusetts · W 28–21; defense 53.0 percentile2025 Week 9: Buffalo vs. Akron · L 16–24; defense 38.2 percentile2025 Week 10: Buffalo at Bowling Green · W 28–3; defense 92.0 percentile2025 Week 12: Buffalo at Central Michigan · L 19–38; defense 43.8 percentile2025 Week 13: Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) · L 20–37; defense 48.8 percentile2025 Week 14: Buffalo vs. Ohio · L 26–31; defense 16.2 percentile2026 Week 1: Buffalo vs. UAlbany · W 21–17; defense 40.9 percentile2014 defense season mean: 34.3 percentile2015 defense season mean: 32.1 percentile2016 defense season mean: 31.3 percentile2017 defense season mean: 42.4 percentile2018 defense season mean: 43.6 percentile2019 defense season mean: 61.6 percentile2020 defense season mean: 64.9 percentile2021 defense season mean: 35.1 percentile2022 defense season mean: 35.1 percentile2023 defense season mean: 54.6 percentile2024 defense season mean: 38.3 percentile2025 defense season mean: 47.2 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 46.5 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 40.9 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2014Jeff Quinn / Alex Wood
2015Lance Leipold
2021Maurice Linguist
2024Pete Lembo / Maurice Linguist

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimatePete Lembo1
21.0 estimate8.6 games-only average
46.5 estimate40.9 games-only average
2025Pete Lembo1123.147.2
2024Pete Lembo / Maurice LinguistCoaching change1226.138.3
2023Maurice Linguist1123.754.6
2022Maurice Linguist1037.535.1
2021Maurice LinguistCoaching change930.835.1
2020Lance Leipold789.264.9
2019Lance Leipold1350.661.6
2018Lance Leipold1463.343.6
2017Lance Leipold1251.442.4
2016Lance Leipold1224.231.3
2015Lance LeipoldCoaching change1137.332.1
2014Jeff Quinn / Alex WoodCoaching change1143.634.3