2014–2026 performance history

Rice over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

American AthleticHead coach: Scott AbellView Rice games →
Offense · 2026 estimate13.9/100

20.0 average through 2 games

12.6 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate40.0/100

35.6 average through 2 games

41.2 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

Rice individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.Bailiff · ’14–’17David Bailiff, 2014–2017Bloomgren · ’18–’24Mike Bloomgren, 2018–2024Abell · ’25–’26Scott Abell, 2025–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Rice at Notre Dame · L 17–48; offense 32.5 percentile2014 Week 3: Rice at Texas A&M · L 10–38; offense 24.2 percentile2014 Week 4: Rice vs. Old Dominion · L 42–45; offense 78.3 percentile2014 Week 5: Rice at Southern Miss · W 41–23; offense 66.3 percentile2014 Week 6: Rice vs. Hawai'i · W 28–14; offense 30.7 percentile2014 Week 7: Rice at Army · W 41–21; offense 56.1 percentile2014 Week 9: Rice vs. North Texas · W 41–21; offense 53.1 percentile2014 Week 10: Rice at Florida International · W 31–17; offense 67.1 percentile2014 Week 11: Rice vs. UTSA · W 17–7; offense 54.1 percentile2014 Week 12: Rice at Marshall · L 14–41; offense 21.9 percentile2014 Week 13: Rice vs. UTEP · W 31–13; offense 63.3 percentile2014 Week 14: Rice at Louisiana Tech · L 31–76; offense 52.3 percentile2014 Week 1: Rice vs. Fresno State · W 30–6; offense 46.9 percentile2015 Week 1: Rice vs. Wagner · W 56–16; offense 59.4 percentile2015 Week 2: Rice at Texas · L 28–42; offense 48.5 percentile2015 Week 3: Rice at North Texas · W 38–24; offense 75.8 percentile2015 Week 4: Rice at Baylor · L 17–70; offense 20.4 percentile2015 Week 5: Rice vs. Western Kentucky · L 10–49; offense 10.6 percentile2015 Week 6: Rice at Florida Atlantic · W 27–26; offense 77.7 percentile2015 Week 8: Rice vs. Army · W 38–31; offense 58.5 percentile2015 Week 9: Rice vs. Louisiana Tech · L 17–42; offense 23.5 percentile2015 Week 11: Rice vs. Southern Miss · L 10–65; offense 4.9 percentile2015 Week 12: Rice at UTSA · L 24–34; offense 52.4 percentile2015 Week 13: Rice vs. Charlotte · W 27–7; offense 51.3 percentile2016 Week 1: Rice at Western Kentucky · L 14–46; offense 43.7 percentile2016 Week 2: Rice at Army · L 14–31; offense 8.0 percentile2016 Week 3: Rice vs. Baylor · L 10–38; offense 6.6 percentile2016 Week 4: Rice vs. North Texas · L 35–42; offense 36.7 percentile2016 Week 5: Rice at Southern Miss · L 28–44; offense 46.4 percentile2016 Week 7: Rice vs. UTSA · L 13–14; offense 21.6 percentile2016 Week 8: Rice vs. Prairie View A&M · W 65–44; offense 56.2 percentile2016 Week 9: Rice at Louisiana Tech · L 16–61; offense 15.6 percentile2016 Week 10: Rice vs. Florida Atlantic · L 25–42; offense 12.2 percentile2016 Week 11: Rice at Charlotte · W 22–21; offense 34.4 percentile2016 Week 12: Rice vs. UTEP · W 44–24; offense 75.7 percentile2016 Week 13: Rice at Stanford · L 17–41; offense 29.4 percentile2017 Week 1: Rice vs. Stanford · L 7–62; offense 1.0 percentile2017 Week 2: Rice at UTEP · W 31–14; offense 56.5 percentile2017 Week 3: Rice at Houston · L 3–38; offense 7.4 percentile2017 Week 4: Rice vs. Florida International · L 7–13; offense 4.2 percentile2017 Week 5: Rice at Pittsburgh · L 10–42; offense 23.2 percentile2017 Week 6: Rice vs. Army · L 12–49; offense 33.2 percentile2017 Week 8: Rice at UTSA · L 7–20; offense 43.6 percentile2017 Week 9: Rice vs. Louisiana Tech · L 28–42; offense 86.7 percentile2017 Week 10: Rice at UAB · L 21–52; offense 58.9 percentile2017 Week 11: Rice vs. Southern Miss · L 34–43; offense 94.6 percentile2017 Week 12: Rice at Old Dominion · L 21–24; offense 23.8 percentile2017 Week 13: Rice vs. North Texas · L 14–30; offense 6.6 percentile2018 Week 1: Rice vs. Prairie View A&M · W 31–28; offense 14.5 percentile2018 Week 1: Rice vs. Houston · L 27–45; offense 12.3 percentile2018 Week 2: Rice at Hawai'i · L 29–43; offense 28.8 percentile2018 Week 4: Rice at Southern Miss · L 22–40; offense 55.8 percentile2018 Week 5: Rice at Wake Forest · L 24–56; offense 45.7 percentile2018 Week 6: Rice vs. UTSA · L 3–20; offense 0.2 percentile2018 Week 7: Rice vs. UAB · L 0–42; offense 0.4 percentile2018 Week 8: Rice at Florida International · L 17–36; offense 42.4 percentile2018 Week 9: Rice at North Texas · L 17–41; offense 15.9 percentile2018 Week 10: Rice vs. UTEP · L 26–34; offense 26.5 percentile2018 Week 11: Rice at Louisiana Tech · L 13–28; offense 34.5 percentile2018 Week 12: Rice at LSU · L 10–42; offense 8.6 percentile2018 Week 13: Rice vs. Old Dominion · W 27–13; offense 26.5 percentile2019 Week 1: Rice at Army · L 7–14; offense 21.4 percentile2019 Week 2: Rice vs. Wake Forest · L 21–41; offense 13.1 percentile2019 Week 3: Rice vs. Texas · L 13–48; offense 19.9 percentile2019 Week 4: Rice vs. Baylor · L 13–21; offense 16.8 percentile2019 Week 5: Rice vs. Louisiana Tech · L 20–23; offense 27.8 percentile2019 Week 6: Rice at UAB · L 20–35; offense 51.7 percentile2019 Week 8: Rice at UTSA · L 27–31; offense 41.0 percentile2019 Week 9: Rice vs. Southern Miss · L 6–20; offense 3.3 percentile2019 Week 10: Rice vs. Marshall · L 7–20; offense 12.9 percentile2019 Week 12: Rice at Middle Tennessee · W 31–28; offense 33.1 percentile2019 Week 13: Rice vs. North Texas · W 20–14; offense 17.8 percentile2019 Week 14: Rice at UTEP · W 30–16; offense 72.2 percentile2020 Week 9: Rice at Southern Miss · W 30–6; offense 62.1 percentile2020 Week 12: Rice at North Texas · L 17–27; offense 5.5 percentile2020 Week 14: Rice at Marshall · W 20–0; offense 50.0 percentile2020 Week 15: Rice vs. UAB · L 16–21; offense 18.7 percentile2021 Week 2: Rice vs. Houston · L 7–44; offense 60.2 percentile2021 Week 4: Rice vs. Texas Southern · W 48–34; offense 43.0 percentile2021 Week 7: Rice at UTSA · L 0–45; offense 1.3 percentile2021 Week 8: Rice at UAB · W 30–24; offense 64.4 percentile2021 Week 10: Rice at Charlotte · L 24–31; offense 21.8 percentile2021 Week 11: Rice vs. Western Kentucky · L 21–42; offense 31.5 percentile2021 Week 13: Rice vs. Louisiana Tech · W 35–31; offense 48.8 percentile2022 Week 1: Rice at USC · L 14–66; offense 32.0 percentile2022 Week 2: Rice vs. McNeese · W 52–10; offense 54.6 percentile2022 Week 3: Rice vs. Louisiana · W 33–21; offense 61.8 percentile2022 Week 4: Rice at Houston · L 27–34; offense 64.5 percentile2022 Week 5: Rice vs. UAB · W 28–24; offense 25.7 percentile2022 Week 8: Rice at Louisiana Tech · W 42–41; offense 54.5 percentile2022 Week 9: Rice vs. Charlotte · L 23–56; offense 24.7 percentile2022 Week 10: Rice vs. UTEP · W 37–30; offense 93.8 percentile2022 Week 11: Rice at Western Kentucky · L 10–45; offense 56.4 percentile2022 Week 12: Rice vs. UTSA · L 7–41; offense 5.1 percentile2022 Week 13: Rice at North Texas · L 17–21; offense 20.8 percentile2022 Week 1: Rice vs. Southern Miss · L 24–38; offense 30.6 percentile2023 Week 1: Rice at Texas · L 10–37; offense 15.5 percentile2023 Week 2: Rice vs. Houston · W 43–41; offense 68.6 percentile2023 Week 3: Rice vs. Texas Southern · W 59–7; offense 51.4 percentile2023 Week 5: Rice vs. East Carolina · W 24–17; offense 69.6 percentile2023 Week 6: Rice vs. UConn · L 31–38; offense 79.3 percentile2023 Week 8: Rice at Tulsa · W 42–10; offense 89.2 percentile2023 Week 9: Rice vs. Tulane · L 28–30; offense 81.1 percentile2023 Week 10: Rice vs. SMU · L 31–36; offense 68.9 percentile2023 Week 11: Rice at UTSA · L 14–34; offense 12.6 percentile2023 Week 12: Rice at Charlotte · W 28–7; offense 63.5 percentile2023 Week 13: Rice vs. Florida Atlantic · W 24–21; offense 78.1 percentile2023 Week 1: Rice vs. Texas State · L 21–45; offense 26.5 percentile2024 Week 1: Rice vs. Sam Houston · L 14–34; offense 29.6 percentile2024 Week 2: Rice vs. Texas Southern · W 69–7; offense 75.6 percentile2024 Week 3: Rice at Houston · L 7–33; offense 2.7 percentile2024 Week 4: Rice at Army · L 14–37; offense 59.4 percentile2024 Week 5: Rice vs. Charlotte · L 20–21; offense 38.6 percentile2024 Week 7: Rice vs. UTSA · W 29–27; offense 75.0 percentile2024 Week 8: Rice at Tulane · L 10–24; offense 23.5 percentile2024 Week 9: Rice at UConn · L 10–17; offense 1.6 percentile2024 Week 10: Rice vs. Navy · W 24–10; offense 61.7 percentile2024 Week 11: Rice at Memphis · L 20–27; offense 37.1 percentile2024 Week 13: Rice at UAB · L 14–40; offense 22.9 percentile2024 Week 14: Rice vs. South Florida · W 35–28; offense 41.5 percentile2025 Week 1: Rice at Louisiana · W 14–12; offense 13.3 percentile2025 Week 2: Rice vs. Houston · L 9–35; offense 6.5 percentile2025 Week 3: Rice vs. Prairie View A&M · W 38–17; offense 33.1 percentile2025 Week 4: Rice at Charlotte · W 28–17; offense 32.8 percentile2025 Week 5: Rice at Navy · L 13–21; offense 2.0 percentile2025 Week 6: Rice vs. Florida Atlantic · L 21–27; offense 14.8 percentile2025 Week 7: Rice at UTSA · L 13–61; offense 8.6 percentile2025 Week 9: Rice vs. UConn · W 37–34; offense 37.1 percentile2025 Week 10: Rice vs. Memphis · L 14–38; offense 8.0 percentile2025 Week 11: Rice vs. UAB · W 24–17; offense 5.0 percentile2025 Week 13: Rice vs. North Texas · L 24–56; offense 53.6 percentile2025 Week 14: Rice at South Florida · L 3–52; offense 8.4 percentile2025 Week 1: Rice vs. Texas State · L 10–41; offense 1.2 percentile2026 Week 1: Rice vs. Houston Christian · W 31–3; offense 40.9 percentile2026 Week 2: Rice at Notre Dame · L 0–52; offense 7.3 percentile2014 offense season mean: 49.6 percentile2015 offense season mean: 41.0 percentile2016 offense season mean: 29.3 percentile2017 offense season mean: 31.1 percentile2018 offense season mean: 16.8 percentile2019 offense season mean: 24.6 percentile2020 offense season mean: 29.3 percentile2021 offense season mean: 33.1 percentile2022 offense season mean: 42.9 percentile2023 offense season mean: 59.2 percentile2024 offense season mean: 33.8 percentile2025 offense season mean: 12.6 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 13.9 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 20.0 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Rice at Notre Dame · L 17–48; defense 8.5 percentile2014 Week 3: Rice at Texas A&M · L 10–38; defense 7.0 percentile2014 Week 4: Rice vs. Old Dominion · L 42–45; defense 3.4 percentile2014 Week 5: Rice at Southern Miss · W 41–23; defense 57.5 percentile2014 Week 6: Rice vs. Hawai'i · W 28–14; defense 76.5 percentile2014 Week 7: Rice at Army · W 41–21; defense 71.2 percentile2014 Week 9: Rice vs. North Texas · W 41–21; defense 81.0 percentile2014 Week 10: Rice at Florida International · W 31–17; defense 57.2 percentile2014 Week 11: Rice vs. UTSA · W 17–7; defense 47.6 percentile2014 Week 12: Rice at Marshall · L 14–41; defense 17.5 percentile2014 Week 13: Rice vs. UTEP · W 31–13; defense 85.9 percentile2014 Week 14: Rice at Louisiana Tech · L 31–76; defense 0.6 percentile2014 Week 1: Rice vs. Fresno State · W 30–6; defense 97.2 percentile2015 Week 1: Rice vs. Wagner · W 56–16; defense 44.4 percentile2015 Week 2: Rice at Texas · L 28–42; defense 28.5 percentile2015 Week 3: Rice at North Texas · W 38–24; defense 7.6 percentile2015 Week 4: Rice at Baylor · L 17–70; defense 0.6 percentile2015 Week 5: Rice vs. Western Kentucky · L 10–49; defense 47.0 percentile2015 Week 6: Rice at Florida Atlantic · W 27–26; defense 17.8 percentile2015 Week 8: Rice vs. Army · W 38–31; defense 37.0 percentile2015 Week 9: Rice vs. Louisiana Tech · L 17–42; defense 10.8 percentile2015 Week 11: Rice vs. Southern Miss · L 10–65; defense 5.1 percentile2015 Week 12: Rice at UTSA · L 24–34; defense 7.6 percentile2015 Week 13: Rice vs. Charlotte · W 27–7; defense 66.9 percentile2016 Week 1: Rice at Western Kentucky · L 14–46; defense 50.4 percentile2016 Week 2: Rice at Army · L 14–31; defense 54.8 percentile2016 Week 3: Rice vs. Baylor · L 10–38; defense 25.1 percentile2016 Week 4: Rice vs. North Texas · L 35–42; defense 26.5 percentile2016 Week 5: Rice at Southern Miss · L 28–44; defense 15.4 percentile2016 Week 7: Rice vs. UTSA · L 13–14; defense 57.8 percentile2016 Week 8: Rice vs. Prairie View A&M · W 65–44; defense 12.7 percentile2016 Week 9: Rice at Louisiana Tech · L 16–61; defense 4.3 percentile2016 Week 10: Rice vs. Florida Atlantic · L 25–42; defense 14.5 percentile2016 Week 11: Rice at Charlotte · W 22–21; defense 78.5 percentile2016 Week 12: Rice vs. UTEP · W 44–24; defense 61.8 percentile2016 Week 13: Rice at Stanford · L 17–41; defense 2.2 percentile2017 Week 1: Rice vs. Stanford · L 7–62; defense 0.6 percentile2017 Week 2: Rice at UTEP · W 31–14; defense 60.3 percentile2017 Week 3: Rice at Houston · L 3–38; defense 10.7 percentile2017 Week 4: Rice vs. Florida International · L 7–13; defense 68.1 percentile2017 Week 5: Rice at Pittsburgh · L 10–42; defense 20.0 percentile2017 Week 6: Rice vs. Army · L 12–49; defense 23.0 percentile2017 Week 8: Rice at UTSA · L 7–20; defense 27.0 percentile2017 Week 9: Rice vs. Louisiana Tech · L 28–42; defense 19.4 percentile2017 Week 10: Rice at UAB · L 21–52; defense 1.1 percentile2017 Week 11: Rice vs. Southern Miss · L 34–43; defense 1.4 percentile2017 Week 12: Rice at Old Dominion · L 21–24; defense 25.4 percentile2017 Week 13: Rice vs. North Texas · L 14–30; defense 37.3 percentile2018 Week 1: Rice vs. Prairie View A&M · W 31–28; defense 26.6 percentile2018 Week 1: Rice vs. Houston · L 27–45; defense 17.6 percentile2018 Week 2: Rice at Hawai'i · L 29–43; defense 9.6 percentile2018 Week 4: Rice at Southern Miss · L 22–40; defense 11.5 percentile2018 Week 5: Rice at Wake Forest · L 24–56; defense 9.1 percentile2018 Week 6: Rice vs. UTSA · L 3–20; defense 51.9 percentile2018 Week 7: Rice vs. UAB · L 0–42; defense 35.6 percentile2018 Week 8: Rice at Florida International · L 17–36; defense 19.2 percentile2018 Week 9: Rice at North Texas · L 17–41; defense 6.9 percentile2018 Week 10: Rice vs. UTEP · L 26–34; defense 15.9 percentile2018 Week 11: Rice at Louisiana Tech · L 13–28; defense 32.4 percentile2018 Week 12: Rice at LSU · L 10–42; defense 1.7 percentile2018 Week 13: Rice vs. Old Dominion · W 27–13; defense 69.1 percentile2019 Week 1: Rice at Army · L 7–14; defense 66.7 percentile2019 Week 2: Rice vs. Wake Forest · L 21–41; defense 16.0 percentile2019 Week 3: Rice vs. Texas · L 13–48; defense 18.3 percentile2019 Week 4: Rice vs. Baylor · L 13–21; defense 46.3 percentile2019 Week 5: Rice vs. Louisiana Tech · L 20–23; defense 68.5 percentile2019 Week 6: Rice at UAB · L 20–35; defense 37.2 percentile2019 Week 8: Rice at UTSA · L 27–31; defense 19.4 percentile2019 Week 9: Rice vs. Southern Miss · L 6–20; defense 67.8 percentile2019 Week 10: Rice vs. Marshall · L 7–20; defense 42.1 percentile2019 Week 12: Rice at Middle Tennessee · W 31–28; defense 37.3 percentile2019 Week 13: Rice vs. North Texas · W 20–14; defense 87.9 percentile2019 Week 14: Rice at UTEP · W 30–16; defense 78.7 percentile2020 Week 9: Rice at Southern Miss · W 30–6; defense 90.2 percentile2020 Week 12: Rice at North Texas · L 17–27; defense 39.4 percentile2020 Week 14: Rice at Marshall · W 20–0; defense 92.5 percentile2020 Week 15: Rice vs. UAB · L 16–21; defense 44.0 percentile2021 Week 2: Rice vs. Houston · L 7–44; defense 12.2 percentile2021 Week 4: Rice vs. Texas Southern · W 48–34; defense 13.7 percentile2021 Week 7: Rice at UTSA · L 0–45; defense 36.5 percentile2021 Week 8: Rice at UAB · W 30–24; defense 37.2 percentile2021 Week 10: Rice at Charlotte · L 24–31; defense 57.5 percentile2021 Week 11: Rice vs. Western Kentucky · L 21–42; defense 20.2 percentile2021 Week 13: Rice vs. Louisiana Tech · W 35–31; defense 28.1 percentile2022 Week 1: Rice at USC · L 14–66; defense 1.3 percentile2022 Week 2: Rice vs. McNeese · W 52–10; defense 32.1 percentile2022 Week 3: Rice vs. Louisiana · W 33–21; defense 81.3 percentile2022 Week 4: Rice at Houston · L 27–34; defense 42.4 percentile2022 Week 5: Rice vs. UAB · W 28–24; defense 36.8 percentile2022 Week 8: Rice at Louisiana Tech · W 42–41; defense 56.0 percentile2022 Week 9: Rice vs. Charlotte · L 23–56; defense 2.3 percentile2022 Week 10: Rice vs. UTEP · W 37–30; defense 27.9 percentile2022 Week 11: Rice at Western Kentucky · L 10–45; defense 25.1 percentile2022 Week 12: Rice vs. UTSA · L 7–41; defense 23.2 percentile2022 Week 13: Rice at North Texas · L 17–21; defense 66.1 percentile2022 Week 1: Rice vs. Southern Miss · L 24–38; defense 10.4 percentile2023 Week 1: Rice at Texas · L 10–37; defense 71.3 percentile2023 Week 2: Rice vs. Houston · W 43–41; defense 14.9 percentile2023 Week 3: Rice vs. Texas Southern · W 59–7; defense 53.1 percentile2023 Week 5: Rice vs. East Carolina · W 24–17; defense 41.8 percentile2023 Week 6: Rice vs. UConn · L 31–38; defense 19.1 percentile2023 Week 8: Rice at Tulsa · W 42–10; defense 81.5 percentile2023 Week 9: Rice vs. Tulane · L 28–30; defense 13.6 percentile2023 Week 10: Rice vs. SMU · L 31–36; defense 30.9 percentile2023 Week 11: Rice at UTSA · L 14–34; defense 59.7 percentile2023 Week 12: Rice at Charlotte · W 28–7; defense 93.7 percentile2023 Week 13: Rice vs. Florida Atlantic · W 24–21; defense 11.6 percentile2023 Week 1: Rice vs. Texas State · L 21–45; defense 93.3 percentile2024 Week 1: Rice vs. Sam Houston · L 14–34; defense 14.0 percentile2024 Week 2: Rice vs. Texas Southern · W 69–7; defense 68.4 percentile2024 Week 3: Rice at Houston · L 7–33; defense 30.1 percentile2024 Week 4: Rice at Army · L 14–37; defense 20.2 percentile2024 Week 5: Rice vs. Charlotte · L 20–21; defense 45.6 percentile2024 Week 7: Rice vs. UTSA · W 29–27; defense 39.6 percentile2024 Week 8: Rice at Tulane · L 10–24; defense 92.6 percentile2024 Week 9: Rice at UConn · L 10–17; defense 93.3 percentile2024 Week 10: Rice vs. Navy · W 24–10; defense 92.2 percentile2024 Week 11: Rice at Memphis · L 20–27; defense 54.8 percentile2024 Week 13: Rice at UAB · L 14–40; defense 44.1 percentile2024 Week 14: Rice vs. South Florida · W 35–28; defense 57.2 percentile2025 Week 1: Rice at Louisiana · W 14–12; defense 82.5 percentile2025 Week 2: Rice vs. Houston · L 9–35; defense 44.2 percentile2025 Week 3: Rice vs. Prairie View A&M · W 38–17; defense 38.1 percentile2025 Week 4: Rice at Charlotte · W 28–17; defense 51.8 percentile2025 Week 5: Rice at Navy · L 13–21; defense 45.8 percentile2025 Week 6: Rice vs. Florida Atlantic · L 21–27; defense 25.6 percentile2025 Week 7: Rice at UTSA · L 13–61; defense 31.3 percentile2025 Week 9: Rice vs. UConn · W 37–34; defense 62.0 percentile2025 Week 10: Rice vs. Memphis · L 14–38; defense 37.7 percentile2025 Week 11: Rice vs. UAB · W 24–17; defense 79.9 percentile2025 Week 13: Rice vs. North Texas · L 24–56; defense 8.8 percentile2025 Week 14: Rice at South Florida · L 3–52; defense 9.2 percentile2025 Week 1: Rice vs. Texas State · L 10–41; defense 36.9 percentile2026 Week 1: Rice vs. Houston Christian · W 31–3; defense 33.2 percentile2026 Week 2: Rice at Notre Dame · L 0–52; defense 38.2 percentile2014 defense season mean: 42.0 percentile2015 defense season mean: 18.5 percentile2016 defense season mean: 28.5 percentile2017 defense season mean: 16.8 percentile2018 defense season mean: 19.6 percentile2019 defense season mean: 48.8 percentile2020 defense season mean: 71.8 percentile2021 defense season mean: 27.6 percentile2022 defense season mean: 28.0 percentile2023 defense season mean: 49.6 percentile2024 defense season mean: 57.2 percentile2025 defense season mean: 41.2 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 40.0 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 35.6 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2018Mike Bloomgren
2024Mike Bloomgren / Pete Alamar
2025Scott Abell

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateScott Abell2
13.9 estimate20.0 games-only average
40.0 estimate35.6 games-only average
2025Scott AbellCoaching change1312.641.2
2024Mike Bloomgren / Pete AlamarCoaching change1233.857.2
2023Mike Bloomgren1259.249.6
2022Mike Bloomgren1242.928.0
2021Mike Bloomgren733.127.6
2020Mike Bloomgren429.371.8
2019Mike Bloomgren1224.648.8
2018Mike BloomgrenCoaching change1316.819.6
2017David Bailiff1231.116.8
2016David Bailiff1229.328.5
2015David Bailiff1141.018.5
2014David Bailiff1349.642.0