2014–2026 performance history

NC State over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

ACCHead coach: Dave DoerenView NC State games →
Offense · 2026 estimate66.1/100

84.3 average through 2 games

60.5 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate43.5/100

50.6 average through 2 games

41.8 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

NC State individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.Doeren · ’14–’26Dave Doeren, 2014–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: NC State vs. Georgia Southern · W 24–23; offense 79.6 percentile2014 Week 2: NC State vs. Old Dominion · W 46–34; offense 87.9 percentile2014 Week 3: NC State at South Florida · W 49–17; offense 99.4 percentile2014 Week 4: NC State vs. Presbyterian · W 42–0; offense 55.0 percentile2014 Week 5: NC State vs. Florida State · L 41–56; offense 82.7 percentile2014 Week 6: NC State at Clemson · L 0–41; offense 33.9 percentile2014 Week 7: NC State vs. Boston College · L 14–30; offense 20.9 percentile2014 Week 8: NC State at Louisville · L 18–30; offense 84.9 percentile2014 Week 10: NC State at Syracuse · W 24–17; offense 31.8 percentile2014 Week 11: NC State vs. Georgia Tech · L 23–56; offense 71.4 percentile2014 Week 12: NC State vs. Wake Forest · W 42–13; offense 88.4 percentile2014 Week 14: NC State at North Carolina · W 35–7; offense 78.6 percentile2014 Week 1: NC State vs. UCF · W 34–27; offense 84.8 percentile2015 Week 1: NC State vs. Troy · W 49–21; offense 82.0 percentile2015 Week 2: NC State vs. Eastern Kentucky · W 35–0; offense 51.7 percentile2015 Week 3: NC State at Old Dominion · W 38–14; offense 62.8 percentile2015 Week 4: NC State at South Alabama · W 63–13; offense 99.2 percentile2015 Week 5: NC State vs. Louisville · L 13–20; offense 8.2 percentile2015 Week 6: NC State at Virginia Tech · L 13–28; offense 33.6 percentile2015 Week 8: NC State at Wake Forest · W 35–17; offense 80.7 percentile2015 Week 9: NC State vs. Clemson · L 41–56; offense 64.6 percentile2015 Week 10: NC State at Boston College · W 24–8; offense 66.4 percentile2015 Week 11: NC State at Florida State · L 17–34; offense 35.2 percentile2015 Week 12: NC State vs. Syracuse · W 42–29; offense 79.2 percentile2015 Week 13: NC State vs. North Carolina · L 34–45; offense 82.4 percentile2015 Week 1: NC State vs. Mississippi State · L 28–51; offense 69.0 percentile2016 Week 1: NC State vs. William & Mary · W 48–14; offense 62.4 percentile2016 Week 2: NC State at East Carolina · L 30–33; offense 66.2 percentile2016 Week 3: NC State vs. Old Dominion · W 49–22; offense 86.8 percentile2016 Week 5: NC State vs. Wake Forest · W 33–16; offense 93.1 percentile2016 Week 6: NC State vs. Notre Dame · W 10–3; offense 0.1 percentile2016 Week 7: NC State at Clemson · L 17–24; offense 77.2 percentile2016 Week 8: NC State at Louisville · L 13–54; offense 23.4 percentile2016 Week 9: NC State vs. Boston College · L 14–21; offense 13.3 percentile2016 Week 10: NC State vs. Florida State · L 20–24; offense 63.9 percentile2016 Week 11: NC State at Syracuse · W 35–20; offense 23.6 percentile2016 Week 12: NC State vs. Miami · L 13–27; offense 34.1 percentile2016 Week 13: NC State at North Carolina · W 28–21; offense 86.1 percentile2016 Week 1: NC State vs. Vanderbilt · W 41–17; offense 69.1 percentile2017 Week 1: NC State vs. South Carolina · L 28–35; offense 43.4 percentile2017 Week 2: NC State vs. Marshall · W 37–20; offense 71.1 percentile2017 Week 3: NC State vs. Furman · W 49–16; offense 85.5 percentile2017 Week 4: NC State at Florida State · W 27–21; offense 57.7 percentile2017 Week 5: NC State vs. Syracuse · W 33–25; offense 56.1 percentile2017 Week 6: NC State vs. Louisville · W 39–25; offense 67.8 percentile2017 Week 7: NC State at Pittsburgh · W 35–17; offense 50.2 percentile2017 Week 9: NC State at Notre Dame · L 14–35; offense 16.2 percentile2017 Week 10: NC State vs. Clemson · L 31–38; offense 81.4 percentile2017 Week 11: NC State at Boston College · W 17–14; offense 34.4 percentile2017 Week 12: NC State at Wake Forest · L 24–30; offense 69.9 percentile2017 Week 13: NC State vs. North Carolina · W 33–21; offense 76.3 percentile2017 Week 1: NC State vs. Arizona State · W 52–31; offense 89.3 percentile2018 Week 1: NC State vs. James Madison · W 24–13; offense 24.1 percentile2018 Week 2: NC State vs. Georgia State · W 41–7; offense 38.8 percentile2018 Week 4: NC State at Marshall · W 37–20; offense 91.5 percentile2018 Week 5: NC State vs. Virginia · W 35–21; offense 73.1 percentile2018 Week 6: NC State vs. Boston College · W 28–23; offense 77.7 percentile2018 Week 8: NC State at Clemson · L 7–41; offense 36.9 percentile2018 Week 9: NC State at Syracuse · L 41–51; offense 76.0 percentile2018 Week 10: NC State vs. Florida State · W 47–28; offense 73.1 percentile2018 Week 11: NC State vs. Wake Forest · L 23–27; offense 11.6 percentile2018 Week 12: NC State at Louisville · W 52–10; offense 57.2 percentile2018 Week 13: NC State at North Carolina · W 34–28; offense 47.3 percentile2018 Week 14: NC State vs. East Carolina · W 58–3; offense 94.0 percentile2018 Week 1: NC State vs. Texas A&M · L 13–52; offense 13.7 percentile2019 Week 1: NC State vs. East Carolina · W 34–6; offense 26.0 percentile2019 Week 2: NC State vs. Western Carolina · W 41–0; offense 44.6 percentile2019 Week 3: NC State at West Virginia · L 27–44; offense 24.0 percentile2019 Week 4: NC State vs. Ball State · W 34–23; offense 43.0 percentile2019 Week 5: NC State at Florida State · L 13–31; offense 10.3 percentile2019 Week 7: NC State vs. Syracuse · W 16–10; offense 10.3 percentile2019 Week 8: NC State at Boston College · L 24–45; offense 3.7 percentile2019 Week 10: NC State at Wake Forest · L 10–44; offense 23.0 percentile2019 Week 11: NC State vs. Clemson · L 10–55; offense 16.3 percentile2019 Week 12: NC State vs. Louisville · L 20–34; offense 17.5 percentile2019 Week 13: NC State at Georgia Tech · L 26–28; offense 54.5 percentile2019 Week 14: NC State vs. North Carolina · L 10–41; offense 19.3 percentile2020 Week 3: NC State vs. Wake Forest · W 45–42; offense 61.8 percentile2020 Week 4: NC State at Virginia Tech · L 24–45; offense 37.4 percentile2020 Week 5: NC State at Pittsburgh · W 30–29; offense 53.2 percentile2020 Week 6: NC State at Virginia · W 38–21; offense 14.5 percentile2020 Week 7: NC State vs. Duke · W 31–20; offense 11.8 percentile2020 Week 8: NC State at North Carolina · L 21–48; offense 46.7 percentile2020 Week 10: NC State vs. Miami · L 41–44; offense 78.2 percentile2020 Week 11: NC State vs. Florida State · W 38–22; offense 44.1 percentile2020 Week 12: NC State vs. Liberty · W 15–14; offense 15.1 percentile2020 Week 13: NC State at Syracuse · W 36–29; offense 63.5 percentile2020 Week 14: NC State vs. Georgia Tech · W 23–13; offense 25.3 percentile2020 Week 1: NC State vs. Kentucky · L 21–23; offense 28.7 percentile2021 Week 1: NC State vs. South Florida · W 45–0; offense 86.4 percentile2021 Week 2: NC State at Mississippi State · L 10–24; offense 19.9 percentile2021 Week 3: NC State vs. Furman · W 45–7; offense 70.4 percentile2021 Week 4: NC State vs. Clemson · W 27–21; offense 46.8 percentile2021 Week 5: NC State vs. Louisiana Tech · W 34–27; offense 57.5 percentile2021 Week 7: NC State at Boston College · W 33–7; offense 77.0 percentile2021 Week 8: NC State at Miami · L 30–31; offense 37.2 percentile2021 Week 9: NC State vs. Louisville · W 28–13; offense 44.1 percentile2021 Week 10: NC State at Florida State · W 28–14; offense 56.2 percentile2021 Week 11: NC State at Wake Forest · L 42–45; offense 51.3 percentile2021 Week 13: NC State vs. North Carolina · W 34–30; offense 47.4 percentile2022 Week 1: NC State at East Carolina · W 21–20; offense 24.3 percentile2022 Week 2: NC State vs. Charleston Southern · W 55–3; offense 55.0 percentile2022 Week 3: NC State vs. Texas Tech · W 27–14; offense 21.2 percentile2022 Week 4: NC State vs. UConn · W 41–10; offense 96.5 percentile2022 Week 5: NC State at Clemson · L 20–30; offense 36.4 percentile2022 Week 6: NC State vs. Florida State · W 19–17; offense 50.2 percentile2022 Week 7: NC State at Syracuse · L 9–24; offense 14.4 percentile2022 Week 9: NC State vs. Virginia Tech · W 22–21; offense 15.0 percentile2022 Week 10: NC State vs. Wake Forest · W 30–21; offense 39.8 percentile2022 Week 11: NC State vs. Boston College · L 20–21; offense 25.9 percentile2022 Week 12: NC State at Louisville · L 10–25; offense 22.2 percentile2022 Week 13: NC State at North Carolina · W 30–27; offense 12.8 percentile2022 Week 1: NC State vs. Maryland · L 12–16; offense 6.6 percentile2023 Week 1: NC State at UConn · W 24–14; offense 61.3 percentile2023 Week 2: NC State vs. Notre Dame · L 24–45; offense 36.6 percentile2023 Week 3: NC State vs. VMI · W 45–7; offense 75.2 percentile2023 Week 4: NC State at Virginia · W 24–21; offense 28.6 percentile2023 Week 5: NC State vs. Louisville · L 10–13; offense 15.0 percentile2023 Week 6: NC State vs. Marshall · W 48–41; offense 74.1 percentile2023 Week 7: NC State at Duke · L 3–24; offense 20.9 percentile2023 Week 9: NC State vs. Clemson · W 24–17; offense 25.3 percentile2023 Week 10: NC State vs. Miami · W 20–6; offense 57.9 percentile2023 Week 12: NC State at Virginia Tech · W 35–28; offense 64.6 percentile2023 Week 13: NC State vs. North Carolina · W 39–20; offense 80.4 percentile2023 Week 1: NC State vs. Kansas State · L 19–28; offense 65.4 percentile2024 Week 1: NC State vs. Western Carolina · W 38–21; offense 47.6 percentile2024 Week 2: NC State vs. Tennessee · L 10–51; offense 6.9 percentile2024 Week 3: NC State vs. Louisiana Tech · W 30–20; offense 74.0 percentile2024 Week 4: NC State at Clemson · L 35–59; offense 49.6 percentile2024 Week 5: NC State vs. Northern Illinois · W 24–17; offense 23.2 percentile2024 Week 6: NC State vs. Wake Forest · L 30–34; offense 67.2 percentile2024 Week 7: NC State vs. Syracuse · L 17–24; offense 62.3 percentile2024 Week 8: NC State at California · W 24–23; offense 62.7 percentile2024 Week 10: NC State vs. Stanford · W 59–28; offense 98.3 percentile2024 Week 11: NC State vs. Duke · L 19–29; offense 25.8 percentile2024 Week 13: NC State at Georgia Tech · L 29–30; offense 70.4 percentile2024 Week 14: NC State at North Carolina · W 35–30; offense 76.7 percentile2024 Week 1: NC State vs. East Carolina · L 21–26; offense 70.0 percentile2025 Week 1: NC State vs. East Carolina · W 24–17; offense 53.9 percentile2025 Week 2: NC State vs. Virginia · W 35–31; offense 87.6 percentile2025 Week 3: NC State at Wake Forest · W 34–24; offense 66.6 percentile2025 Week 4: NC State at Duke · L 33–45; offense 70.2 percentile2025 Week 5: NC State vs. Virginia Tech · L 21–23; offense 8.2 percentile2025 Week 6: NC State vs. Campbell · W 56–10; offense 72.0 percentile2025 Week 7: NC State at Notre Dame · L 7–36; offense 41.9 percentile2025 Week 9: NC State at Pittsburgh · L 34–53; offense 73.8 percentile2025 Week 10: NC State vs. Georgia Tech · W 48–36; offense 98.1 percentile2025 Week 12: NC State at Miami · L 7–41; offense 6.7 percentile2025 Week 13: NC State vs. Florida State · W 21–11; offense 26.5 percentile2025 Week 14: NC State vs. North Carolina · W 42–19; offense 91.5 percentile2025 Week 1: NC State vs. Memphis · W 31–7; offense 61.5 percentile2026 Week 1: NC State at Virginia · L 8–34; offense 27.7 percentile2026 Week 2: NC State vs. Richmond · W 73–0; offense 99.5 percentile2014 offense season mean: 74.4 percentile2015 offense season mean: 66.1 percentile2016 offense season mean: 50.1 percentile2017 offense season mean: 62.8 percentile2018 offense season mean: 56.5 percentile2019 offense season mean: 21.7 percentile2020 offense season mean: 38.4 percentile2021 offense season mean: 54.6 percentile2022 offense season mean: 31.4 percentile2023 offense season mean: 50.1 percentile2024 offense season mean: 58.2 percentile2025 offense season mean: 60.5 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 66.1 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 84.3 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: NC State vs. Georgia Southern · W 24–23; defense 79.9 percentile2014 Week 2: NC State vs. Old Dominion · W 46–34; defense 25.7 percentile2014 Week 3: NC State at South Florida · W 49–17; defense 88.0 percentile2014 Week 4: NC State vs. Presbyterian · W 42–0; defense 45.9 percentile2014 Week 5: NC State vs. Florida State · L 41–56; defense 4.6 percentile2014 Week 6: NC State at Clemson · L 0–41; defense 5.5 percentile2014 Week 7: NC State vs. Boston College · L 14–30; defense 26.7 percentile2014 Week 8: NC State at Louisville · L 18–30; defense 29.0 percentile2014 Week 10: NC State at Syracuse · W 24–17; defense 68.5 percentile2014 Week 11: NC State vs. Georgia Tech · L 23–56; defense 2.9 percentile2014 Week 12: NC State vs. Wake Forest · W 42–13; defense 65.1 percentile2014 Week 14: NC State at North Carolina · W 35–7; defense 97.9 percentile2014 Week 1: NC State vs. UCF · W 34–27; defense 58.3 percentile2015 Week 1: NC State vs. Troy · W 49–21; defense 59.2 percentile2015 Week 2: NC State vs. Eastern Kentucky · W 35–0; defense 94.6 percentile2015 Week 3: NC State at Old Dominion · W 38–14; defense 94.8 percentile2015 Week 4: NC State at South Alabama · W 63–13; defense 92.7 percentile2015 Week 5: NC State vs. Louisville · L 13–20; defense 76.9 percentile2015 Week 6: NC State at Virginia Tech · L 13–28; defense 34.5 percentile2015 Week 8: NC State at Wake Forest · W 35–17; defense 87.3 percentile2015 Week 9: NC State vs. Clemson · L 41–56; defense 5.3 percentile2015 Week 10: NC State at Boston College · W 24–8; defense 85.7 percentile2015 Week 11: NC State at Florida State · L 17–34; defense 30.9 percentile2015 Week 12: NC State vs. Syracuse · W 42–29; defense 70.0 percentile2015 Week 13: NC State vs. North Carolina · L 34–45; defense 6.0 percentile2015 Week 1: NC State vs. Mississippi State · L 28–51; defense 12.1 percentile2016 Week 1: NC State vs. William & Mary · W 48–14; defense 50.7 percentile2016 Week 2: NC State at East Carolina · L 30–33; defense 49.0 percentile2016 Week 3: NC State vs. Old Dominion · W 49–22; defense 81.5 percentile2016 Week 5: NC State vs. Wake Forest · W 33–16; defense 40.1 percentile2016 Week 6: NC State vs. Notre Dame · W 10–3; defense 99.6 percentile2016 Week 7: NC State at Clemson · L 17–24; defense 52.0 percentile2016 Week 8: NC State at Louisville · L 13–54; defense 48.8 percentile2016 Week 9: NC State vs. Boston College · L 14–21; defense 38.8 percentile2016 Week 10: NC State vs. Florida State · L 20–24; defense 73.7 percentile2016 Week 11: NC State at Syracuse · W 35–20; defense 89.5 percentile2016 Week 12: NC State vs. Miami · L 13–27; defense 57.8 percentile2016 Week 13: NC State at North Carolina · W 28–21; defense 63.4 percentile2016 Week 1: NC State vs. Vanderbilt · W 41–17; defense 60.4 percentile2017 Week 1: NC State vs. South Carolina · L 28–35; defense 56.4 percentile2017 Week 2: NC State vs. Marshall · W 37–20; defense 40.7 percentile2017 Week 3: NC State vs. Furman · W 49–16; defense 28.3 percentile2017 Week 4: NC State at Florida State · W 27–21; defense 59.9 percentile2017 Week 5: NC State vs. Syracuse · W 33–25; defense 60.7 percentile2017 Week 6: NC State vs. Louisville · W 39–25; defense 51.4 percentile2017 Week 7: NC State at Pittsburgh · W 35–17; defense 92.5 percentile2017 Week 9: NC State at Notre Dame · L 14–35; defense 45.8 percentile2017 Week 10: NC State vs. Clemson · L 31–38; defense 31.2 percentile2017 Week 11: NC State at Boston College · W 17–14; defense 74.5 percentile2017 Week 12: NC State at Wake Forest · L 24–30; defense 52.8 percentile2017 Week 13: NC State vs. North Carolina · W 33–21; defense 35.3 percentile2017 Week 1: NC State vs. Arizona State · W 52–31; defense 22.6 percentile2018 Week 1: NC State vs. James Madison · W 24–13; defense 15.8 percentile2018 Week 2: NC State vs. Georgia State · W 41–7; defense 79.4 percentile2018 Week 4: NC State at Marshall · W 37–20; defense 80.4 percentile2018 Week 5: NC State vs. Virginia · W 35–21; defense 74.9 percentile2018 Week 6: NC State vs. Boston College · W 28–23; defense 44.8 percentile2018 Week 8: NC State at Clemson · L 7–41; defense 70.6 percentile2018 Week 9: NC State at Syracuse · L 41–51; defense 23.1 percentile2018 Week 10: NC State vs. Florida State · W 47–28; defense 26.0 percentile2018 Week 11: NC State vs. Wake Forest · L 23–27; defense 49.4 percentile2018 Week 12: NC State at Louisville · W 52–10; defense 50.8 percentile2018 Week 13: NC State at North Carolina · W 34–28; defense 54.0 percentile2018 Week 14: NC State vs. East Carolina · W 58–3; defense 99.1 percentile2018 Week 1: NC State vs. Texas A&M · L 13–52; defense 7.4 percentile2019 Week 1: NC State vs. East Carolina · W 34–6; defense 92.4 percentile2019 Week 2: NC State vs. Western Carolina · W 41–0; defense 83.4 percentile2019 Week 3: NC State at West Virginia · L 27–44; defense 8.9 percentile2019 Week 4: NC State vs. Ball State · W 34–23; defense 84.7 percentile2019 Week 5: NC State at Florida State · L 13–31; defense 52.9 percentile2019 Week 7: NC State vs. Syracuse · W 16–10; defense 90.5 percentile2019 Week 8: NC State at Boston College · L 24–45; defense 6.2 percentile2019 Week 10: NC State at Wake Forest · L 10–44; defense 41.1 percentile2019 Week 11: NC State vs. Clemson · L 10–55; defense 24.8 percentile2019 Week 12: NC State vs. Louisville · L 20–34; defense 43.8 percentile2019 Week 13: NC State at Georgia Tech · L 26–28; defense 7.7 percentile2019 Week 14: NC State vs. North Carolina · L 10–41; defense 10.6 percentile2020 Week 3: NC State vs. Wake Forest · W 45–42; defense 50.0 percentile2020 Week 4: NC State at Virginia Tech · L 24–45; defense 17.3 percentile2020 Week 5: NC State at Pittsburgh · W 30–29; defense 38.2 percentile2020 Week 6: NC State at Virginia · W 38–21; defense 90.4 percentile2020 Week 7: NC State vs. Duke · W 31–20; defense 78.0 percentile2020 Week 8: NC State at North Carolina · L 21–48; defense 24.0 percentile2020 Week 10: NC State vs. Miami · L 41–44; defense 14.9 percentile2020 Week 11: NC State vs. Florida State · W 38–22; defense 63.4 percentile2020 Week 12: NC State vs. Liberty · W 15–14; defense 99.2 percentile2020 Week 13: NC State at Syracuse · W 36–29; defense 72.3 percentile2020 Week 14: NC State vs. Georgia Tech · W 23–13; defense 55.2 percentile2020 Week 1: NC State vs. Kentucky · L 21–23; defense 53.3 percentile2021 Week 1: NC State vs. South Florida · W 45–0; defense 66.6 percentile2021 Week 2: NC State at Mississippi State · L 10–24; defense 93.5 percentile2021 Week 3: NC State vs. Furman · W 45–7; defense 70.0 percentile2021 Week 4: NC State vs. Clemson · W 27–21; defense 80.8 percentile2021 Week 5: NC State vs. Louisiana Tech · W 34–27; defense 43.7 percentile2021 Week 7: NC State at Boston College · W 33–7; defense 96.2 percentile2021 Week 8: NC State at Miami · L 30–31; defense 51.6 percentile2021 Week 9: NC State vs. Louisville · W 28–13; defense 60.3 percentile2021 Week 10: NC State at Florida State · W 28–14; defense 96.4 percentile2021 Week 11: NC State at Wake Forest · L 42–45; defense 81.8 percentile2021 Week 13: NC State vs. North Carolina · W 34–30; defense 49.9 percentile2022 Week 1: NC State at East Carolina · W 21–20; defense 78.1 percentile2022 Week 2: NC State vs. Charleston Southern · W 55–3; defense 63.3 percentile2022 Week 3: NC State vs. Texas Tech · W 27–14; defense 79.3 percentile2022 Week 4: NC State vs. UConn · W 41–10; defense 77.7 percentile2022 Week 5: NC State at Clemson · L 20–30; defense 66.3 percentile2022 Week 6: NC State vs. Florida State · W 19–17; defense 64.8 percentile2022 Week 7: NC State at Syracuse · L 9–24; defense 20.4 percentile2022 Week 9: NC State vs. Virginia Tech · W 22–21; defense 48.5 percentile2022 Week 10: NC State vs. Wake Forest · W 30–21; defense 79.0 percentile2022 Week 11: NC State vs. Boston College · L 20–21; defense 51.7 percentile2022 Week 12: NC State at Louisville · L 10–25; defense 69.5 percentile2022 Week 13: NC State at North Carolina · W 30–27; defense 94.6 percentile2022 Week 1: NC State vs. Maryland · L 12–16; defense 88.1 percentile2023 Week 1: NC State at UConn · W 24–14; defense 35.1 percentile2023 Week 2: NC State vs. Notre Dame · L 24–45; defense 51.0 percentile2023 Week 3: NC State vs. VMI · W 45–7; defense 76.5 percentile2023 Week 4: NC State at Virginia · W 24–21; defense 66.7 percentile2023 Week 5: NC State vs. Louisville · L 10–13; defense 94.9 percentile2023 Week 6: NC State vs. Marshall · W 48–41; defense 46.8 percentile2023 Week 7: NC State at Duke · L 3–24; defense 49.5 percentile2023 Week 9: NC State vs. Clemson · W 24–17; defense 71.5 percentile2023 Week 10: NC State vs. Miami · W 20–6; defense 84.7 percentile2023 Week 12: NC State at Virginia Tech · W 35–28; defense 56.0 percentile2023 Week 13: NC State vs. North Carolina · W 39–20; defense 60.8 percentile2023 Week 1: NC State vs. Kansas State · L 19–28; defense 49.3 percentile2024 Week 1: NC State vs. Western Carolina · W 38–21; defense 6.5 percentile2024 Week 2: NC State vs. Tennessee · L 10–51; defense 18.7 percentile2024 Week 3: NC State vs. Louisiana Tech · W 30–20; defense 24.8 percentile2024 Week 4: NC State at Clemson · L 35–59; defense 15.8 percentile2024 Week 5: NC State vs. Northern Illinois · W 24–17; defense 69.3 percentile2024 Week 6: NC State vs. Wake Forest · L 30–34; defense 18.5 percentile2024 Week 7: NC State vs. Syracuse · L 17–24; defense 43.5 percentile2024 Week 8: NC State at California · W 24–23; defense 51.1 percentile2024 Week 10: NC State vs. Stanford · W 59–28; defense 8.1 percentile2024 Week 11: NC State vs. Duke · L 19–29; defense 53.7 percentile2024 Week 13: NC State at Georgia Tech · L 29–30; defense 76.9 percentile2024 Week 14: NC State at North Carolina · W 35–30; defense 45.6 percentile2024 Week 1: NC State vs. East Carolina · L 21–26; defense 19.5 percentile2025 Week 1: NC State vs. East Carolina · W 24–17; defense 88.4 percentile2025 Week 2: NC State vs. Virginia · W 35–31; defense 18.6 percentile2025 Week 3: NC State at Wake Forest · W 34–24; defense 67.6 percentile2025 Week 4: NC State at Duke · L 33–45; defense 36.0 percentile2025 Week 5: NC State vs. Virginia Tech · L 21–23; defense 16.4 percentile2025 Week 6: NC State vs. Campbell · W 56–10; defense 52.9 percentile2025 Week 7: NC State at Notre Dame · L 7–36; defense 86.7 percentile2025 Week 9: NC State at Pittsburgh · L 34–53; defense 15.1 percentile2025 Week 10: NC State vs. Georgia Tech · W 48–36; defense 11.6 percentile2025 Week 12: NC State at Miami · L 7–41; defense 8.0 percentile2025 Week 13: NC State vs. Florida State · W 21–11; defense 64.2 percentile2025 Week 14: NC State vs. North Carolina · W 42–19; defense 23.9 percentile2025 Week 1: NC State vs. Memphis · W 31–7; defense 75.0 percentile2026 Week 1: NC State at Virginia · L 8–34; defense 25.9 percentile2026 Week 2: NC State vs. Richmond · W 73–0; defense 75.0 percentile2014 defense season mean: 43.9 percentile2015 defense season mean: 59.6 percentile2016 defense season mean: 67.0 percentile2017 defense season mean: 51.1 percentile2018 defense season mean: 54.3 percentile2019 defense season mean: 44.0 percentile2020 defense season mean: 58.7 percentile2021 defense season mean: 76.5 percentile2022 defense season mean: 69.9 percentile2023 defense season mean: 64.1 percentile2024 defense season mean: 31.8 percentile2025 defense season mean: 41.8 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 43.5 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 50.6 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateDave Doeren2
66.1 estimate84.3 games-only average
43.5 estimate50.6 games-only average
2025Dave Doeren1360.541.8
2024Dave Doeren1358.231.8
2023Dave Doeren1250.164.1
2022Dave Doeren1331.469.9
2021Dave Doeren1154.676.5
2020Dave Doeren1238.458.7
2019Dave Doeren1221.744.0
2018Dave Doeren1356.554.3
2017Dave Doeren1362.851.1
2016Dave Doeren1350.167.0
2015Dave Doeren1366.159.6
2014Dave Doeren1374.443.9