2014–2026 performance history

Louisville over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

ACCHead coach: Jeff BrohmView Louisville games →
Offense · 2026 estimate66.5/100

83.1 average through 2 games

61.5 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate63.9/100

30.2 average through 2 games

71.7 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

Louisville individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.Petrino · ’14–’17Bobby Petrino, 2014–2017WardLorenzo Ward, 2018Satterfield · ’19–’22Scott Satterfield, 2019–2022Brohm · ’23–’26Jeff Brohm, 2023–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Louisville vs. Miami · W 31–13; offense 33.7 percentile2014 Week 2: Louisville vs. Murray State · W 66–21; offense 70.0 percentile2014 Week 3: Louisville at Virginia · L 21–23; offense 27.8 percentile2014 Week 4: Louisville at Florida International · W 34–3; offense 24.3 percentile2014 Week 5: Louisville vs. Wake Forest · W 20–10; offense 43.3 percentile2014 Week 6: Louisville at Syracuse · W 28–6; offense 63.9 percentile2014 Week 7: Louisville at Clemson · L 17–23; offense 28.4 percentile2014 Week 8: Louisville vs. NC State · W 30–18; offense 64.3 percentile2014 Week 10: Louisville vs. Florida State · L 31–42; offense 59.0 percentile2014 Week 11: Louisville at Boston College · W 38–19; offense 80.3 percentile2014 Week 13: Louisville at Notre Dame · W 31–28; offense 80.5 percentile2014 Week 14: Louisville vs. Kentucky · W 44–40; offense 64.6 percentile2014 Week 1: Louisville vs. Georgia · L 14–37; offense 53.6 percentile2015 Week 1: Louisville vs. Auburn · L 24–31; offense 62.3 percentile2015 Week 2: Louisville vs. Houston · L 31–34; offense 55.5 percentile2015 Week 3: Louisville vs. Clemson · L 17–20; offense 11.3 percentile2015 Week 4: Louisville vs. Samford · W 45–3; offense 63.8 percentile2015 Week 5: Louisville at NC State · W 20–13; offense 28.7 percentile2015 Week 7: Louisville at Florida State · L 21–41; offense 91.4 percentile2015 Week 8: Louisville vs. Boston College · W 17–14; offense 39.5 percentile2015 Week 9: Louisville at Wake Forest · W 20–19; offense 10.3 percentile2015 Week 10: Louisville vs. Syracuse · W 41–17; offense 73.5 percentile2015 Week 11: Louisville vs. Virginia · W 38–31; offense 88.5 percentile2015 Week 12: Louisville at Pittsburgh · L 34–45; offense 47.0 percentile2015 Week 13: Louisville at Kentucky · W 38–24; offense 94.7 percentile2015 Week 1: Louisville vs. Texas A&M · W 27–21; offense 62.5 percentile2016 Week 1: Louisville vs. Charlotte · W 70–14; offense 99.6 percentile2016 Week 2: Louisville at Syracuse · W 62–28; offense 91.7 percentile2016 Week 3: Louisville vs. Florida State · W 63–20; offense 99.0 percentile2016 Week 4: Louisville at Marshall · W 59–28; offense 98.9 percentile2016 Week 5: Louisville at Clemson · L 36–42; offense 79.7 percentile2016 Week 7: Louisville vs. Duke · W 24–14; offense 82.4 percentile2016 Week 8: Louisville vs. NC State · W 54–13; offense 89.9 percentile2016 Week 9: Louisville at Virginia · W 32–25; offense 58.2 percentile2016 Week 10: Louisville at Boston College · W 52–7; offense 91.2 percentile2016 Week 11: Louisville vs. Wake Forest · W 44–12; offense 93.3 percentile2016 Week 12: Louisville at Houston · L 10–36; offense 43.1 percentile2016 Week 13: Louisville vs. Kentucky · L 38–41; offense 78.0 percentile2016 Week 1: Louisville vs. LSU · L 9–29; offense 20.4 percentile2017 Week 1: Louisville vs. Purdue · W 35–28; offense 88.8 percentile2017 Week 2: Louisville at North Carolina · W 47–35; offense 98.3 percentile2017 Week 3: Louisville vs. Clemson · L 21–47; offense 79.6 percentile2017 Week 4: Louisville vs. Kent State · W 42–3; offense 90.6 percentile2017 Week 5: Louisville vs. Murray State · W 55–10; offense 88.1 percentile2017 Week 6: Louisville at NC State · L 25–39; offense 87.2 percentile2017 Week 7: Louisville vs. Boston College · L 42–45; offense 93.8 percentile2017 Week 8: Louisville at Florida State · W 31–28; offense 92.9 percentile2017 Week 9: Louisville at Wake Forest · L 32–42; offense 68.5 percentile2017 Week 11: Louisville vs. Virginia · W 38–21; offense 67.4 percentile2017 Week 12: Louisville vs. Syracuse · W 56–10; offense 99.4 percentile2017 Week 13: Louisville at Kentucky · W 44–17; offense 98.6 percentile2017 Week 1: Louisville vs. Mississippi State · L 27–31; offense 66.4 percentile2018 Week 1: Louisville vs. Alabama · L 14–51; offense 23.6 percentile2018 Week 2: Louisville vs. Indiana State · W 31–7; offense 25.5 percentile2018 Week 3: Louisville vs. Western Kentucky · W 20–17; offense 26.1 percentile2018 Week 4: Louisville at Virginia · L 3–27; offense 5.7 percentile2018 Week 5: Louisville vs. Florida State · L 24–28; offense 63.2 percentile2018 Week 6: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech · L 31–66; offense 50.1 percentile2018 Week 7: Louisville at Boston College · L 20–38; offense 19.0 percentile2018 Week 9: Louisville vs. Wake Forest · L 35–56; offense 67.5 percentile2018 Week 10: Louisville at Clemson · L 16–77; offense 54.3 percentile2018 Week 11: Louisville at Syracuse · L 23–54; offense 19.6 percentile2018 Week 12: Louisville vs. NC State · L 10–52; offense 40.5 percentile2018 Week 13: Louisville vs. Kentucky · L 10–56; offense 33.6 percentile2019 Week 1: Louisville vs. Notre Dame · L 17–35; offense 63.8 percentile2019 Week 2: Louisville vs. Eastern Kentucky · W 42–0; offense 50.8 percentile2019 Week 3: Louisville vs. Western Kentucky · W 38–21; offense 84.7 percentile2019 Week 4: Louisville at Florida State · L 24–35; offense 41.5 percentile2019 Week 6: Louisville vs. Boston College · W 41–39; offense 68.1 percentile2019 Week 7: Louisville at Wake Forest · W 62–59; offense 81.1 percentile2019 Week 8: Louisville vs. Clemson · L 10–45; offense 43.8 percentile2019 Week 9: Louisville vs. Virginia · W 28–21; offense 47.1 percentile2019 Week 11: Louisville at Miami · L 27–52; offense 64.0 percentile2019 Week 12: Louisville at NC State · W 34–20; offense 58.8 percentile2019 Week 13: Louisville vs. Syracuse · W 56–34; offense 99.3 percentile2019 Week 14: Louisville at Kentucky · L 13–45; offense 27.7 percentile2019 Week 1: Louisville vs. Mississippi State · W 38–28; offense 49.3 percentile2020 Week 2: Louisville vs. Western Kentucky · W 35–21; offense 66.9 percentile2020 Week 3: Louisville vs. Miami · L 34–47; offense 70.7 percentile2020 Week 4: Louisville at Pittsburgh · L 20–23; offense 11.4 percentile2020 Week 6: Louisville at Georgia Tech · L 27–46; offense 47.8 percentile2020 Week 7: Louisville at Notre Dame · L 7–12; offense 17.8 percentile2020 Week 8: Louisville vs. Florida State · W 48–16; offense 91.2 percentile2020 Week 9: Louisville vs. Virginia Tech · L 35–42; offense 62.2 percentile2020 Week 11: Louisville at Virginia · L 17–31; offense 68.2 percentile2020 Week 12: Louisville vs. Syracuse · W 30–0; offense 41.5 percentile2020 Week 13: Louisville at Boston College · L 27–34; offense 67.5 percentile2020 Week 15: Louisville vs. Wake Forest · W 45–21; offense 49.8 percentile2021 Week 1: Louisville vs. Ole Miss · L 24–43; offense 14.4 percentile2021 Week 2: Louisville vs. Eastern Kentucky · W 30–3; offense 20.2 percentile2021 Week 3: Louisville vs. UCF · W 42–35; offense 79.1 percentile2021 Week 4: Louisville at Florida State · W 31–23; offense 44.2 percentile2021 Week 5: Louisville at Wake Forest · L 34–37; offense 90.0 percentile2021 Week 6: Louisville vs. Virginia · L 33–34; offense 28.7 percentile2021 Week 8: Louisville vs. Boston College · W 28–14; offense 64.2 percentile2021 Week 9: Louisville at NC State · L 13–28; offense 75.0 percentile2021 Week 10: Louisville vs. Clemson · L 24–30; offense 66.8 percentile2021 Week 11: Louisville vs. Syracuse · W 41–3; offense 83.1 percentile2021 Week 12: Louisville at Duke · W 62–22; offense 100.0 percentile2021 Week 13: Louisville vs. Kentucky · L 21–52; offense 34.5 percentile2021 Week 1: Louisville vs. Air Force · L 28–31; offense 64.0 percentile2022 Week 1: Louisville at Syracuse · L 7–31; offense 57.1 percentile2022 Week 2: Louisville at UCF · W 20–14; offense 39.7 percentile2022 Week 3: Louisville vs. Florida State · L 31–35; offense 83.3 percentile2022 Week 4: Louisville vs. South Florida · W 41–3; offense 18.1 percentile2022 Week 5: Louisville at Boston College · L 33–34; offense 17.7 percentile2022 Week 6: Louisville at Virginia · W 34–17; offense 75.5 percentile2022 Week 8: Louisville vs. Pittsburgh · W 24–10; offense 44.6 percentile2022 Week 9: Louisville vs. Wake Forest · W 48–21; offense 67.5 percentile2022 Week 10: Louisville vs. James Madison · W 34–10; offense 94.9 percentile2022 Week 11: Louisville at Clemson · L 16–31; offense 44.2 percentile2022 Week 12: Louisville vs. NC State · W 25–10; offense 51.3 percentile2022 Week 13: Louisville at Kentucky · L 13–26; offense 49.4 percentile2022 Week 1: Louisville vs. Cincinnati · W 24–7; offense 72.8 percentile2023 Week 2: Louisville vs. Murray State · W 56–0; offense 62.9 percentile2023 Week 3: Louisville vs. Indiana · W 21–14; offense 79.9 percentile2023 Week 4: Louisville vs. Boston College · W 56–28; offense 95.1 percentile2023 Week 5: Louisville at NC State · W 13–10; offense 15.4 percentile2023 Week 6: Louisville vs. Notre Dame · W 33–20; offense 84.5 percentile2023 Week 7: Louisville at Pittsburgh · L 21–38; offense 35.8 percentile2023 Week 9: Louisville vs. Duke · W 23–0; offense 80.1 percentile2023 Week 10: Louisville vs. Virginia Tech · W 34–3; offense 79.3 percentile2023 Week 11: Louisville vs. Virginia · W 31–24; offense 30.1 percentile2023 Week 12: Louisville at Miami · W 38–31; offense 89.1 percentile2023 Week 13: Louisville vs. Kentucky · L 31–38; offense 59.2 percentile2023 Week 14: Louisville vs. Florida State · L 6–16; offense 4.2 percentile2023 Week 1: Louisville vs. USC · L 28–42; offense 62.6 percentile2024 Week 1: Louisville vs. Austin Peay · W 62–0; offense 68.8 percentile2024 Week 2: Louisville vs. Jacksonville State · W 49–14; offense 99.1 percentile2024 Week 5: Louisville at Notre Dame · L 24–31; offense 46.2 percentile2024 Week 6: Louisville vs. SMU · L 27–34; offense 79.0 percentile2024 Week 7: Louisville at Virginia · W 24–20; offense 67.1 percentile2024 Week 8: Louisville vs. Miami · L 45–52; offense 79.8 percentile2024 Week 9: Louisville at Boston College · W 31–27; offense 64.3 percentile2024 Week 10: Louisville at Clemson · W 33–21; offense 71.3 percentile2024 Week 12: Louisville at Stanford · L 35–38; offense 43.1 percentile2024 Week 13: Louisville vs. Pittsburgh · W 37–9; offense 95.1 percentile2024 Week 14: Louisville at Kentucky · W 41–14; offense 79.6 percentile2024 Week 1: Louisville vs. Washington · W 35–34; offense 53.7 percentile2025 Week 1: Louisville vs. Eastern Kentucky · W 51–17; offense 89.2 percentile2025 Week 2: Louisville vs. James Madison · W 28–14; offense 41.0 percentile2025 Week 4: Louisville vs. Bowling Green · W 40–17; offense 67.1 percentile2025 Week 5: Louisville at Pittsburgh · W 34–27; offense 54.4 percentile2025 Week 6: Louisville vs. Virginia · L 27–30; offense 77.0 percentile2025 Week 8: Louisville at Miami · W 24–21; offense 54.2 percentile2025 Week 9: Louisville vs. Boston College · W 38–24; offense 62.4 percentile2025 Week 10: Louisville at Virginia Tech · W 28–16; offense 36.2 percentile2025 Week 11: Louisville vs. California · L 26–29; offense 50.4 percentile2025 Week 12: Louisville vs. Clemson · L 19–20; offense 50.7 percentile2025 Week 13: Louisville at SMU · L 6–38; offense 27.2 percentile2025 Week 14: Louisville vs. Kentucky · W 41–0; offense 77.1 percentile2025 Week 1: Louisville vs. Toledo · W 27–22; offense 89.3 percentile2026 Week 1: Louisville vs. Ole Miss · L 38–41; offense 80.0 percentile2026 Week 2: Louisville vs. Villanova · W 59–13; offense 85.9 percentile2014 offense season mean: 53.7 percentile2015 offense season mean: 57.8 percentile2016 offense season mean: 86.8 percentile2017 offense season mean: 90.3 percentile2018 offense season mean: 33.6 percentile2019 offense season mean: 64.3 percentile2020 offense season mean: 54.2 percentile2021 offense season mean: 65.8 percentile2022 offense season mean: 56.6 percentile2023 offense season mean: 61.0 percentile2024 offense season mean: 75.3 percentile2025 offense season mean: 61.5 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 66.5 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 83.1 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Louisville vs. Miami · W 31–13; defense 96.9 percentile2014 Week 2: Louisville vs. Murray State · W 66–21; defense 48.7 percentile2014 Week 3: Louisville at Virginia · L 21–23; defense 78.5 percentile2014 Week 4: Louisville at Florida International · W 34–3; defense 97.8 percentile2014 Week 5: Louisville vs. Wake Forest · W 20–10; defense 82.1 percentile2014 Week 6: Louisville at Syracuse · W 28–6; defense 79.6 percentile2014 Week 7: Louisville at Clemson · L 17–23; defense 98.9 percentile2014 Week 8: Louisville vs. NC State · W 30–18; defense 59.9 percentile2014 Week 10: Louisville vs. Florida State · L 31–42; defense 26.4 percentile2014 Week 11: Louisville at Boston College · W 38–19; defense 54.4 percentile2014 Week 13: Louisville at Notre Dame · W 31–28; defense 61.9 percentile2014 Week 14: Louisville vs. Kentucky · W 44–40; defense 58.0 percentile2014 Week 1: Louisville vs. Georgia · L 14–37; defense 64.1 percentile2015 Week 1: Louisville vs. Auburn · L 24–31; defense 27.6 percentile2015 Week 2: Louisville vs. Houston · L 31–34; defense 61.0 percentile2015 Week 3: Louisville vs. Clemson · L 17–20; defense 65.7 percentile2015 Week 4: Louisville vs. Samford · W 45–3; defense 60.5 percentile2015 Week 5: Louisville at NC State · W 20–13; defense 98.4 percentile2015 Week 7: Louisville at Florida State · L 21–41; defense 21.6 percentile2015 Week 8: Louisville vs. Boston College · W 17–14; defense 93.0 percentile2015 Week 9: Louisville at Wake Forest · W 20–19; defense 69.2 percentile2015 Week 10: Louisville vs. Syracuse · W 41–17; defense 81.6 percentile2015 Week 11: Louisville vs. Virginia · W 38–31; defense 56.6 percentile2015 Week 12: Louisville at Pittsburgh · L 34–45; defense 24.9 percentile2015 Week 13: Louisville at Kentucky · W 38–24; defense 83.3 percentile2015 Week 1: Louisville vs. Texas A&M · W 27–21; defense 72.6 percentile2016 Week 1: Louisville vs. Charlotte · W 70–14; defense 97.4 percentile2016 Week 2: Louisville at Syracuse · W 62–28; defense 63.6 percentile2016 Week 3: Louisville vs. Florida State · W 63–20; defense 96.1 percentile2016 Week 4: Louisville at Marshall · W 59–28; defense 89.0 percentile2016 Week 5: Louisville at Clemson · L 36–42; defense 22.7 percentile2016 Week 7: Louisville vs. Duke · W 24–14; defense 70.4 percentile2016 Week 8: Louisville vs. NC State · W 54–13; defense 89.9 percentile2016 Week 9: Louisville at Virginia · W 32–25; defense 64.3 percentile2016 Week 10: Louisville at Boston College · W 52–7; defense 91.4 percentile2016 Week 11: Louisville vs. Wake Forest · W 44–12; defense 87.0 percentile2016 Week 12: Louisville at Houston · L 10–36; defense 82.7 percentile2016 Week 13: Louisville vs. Kentucky · L 38–41; defense 17.7 percentile2016 Week 1: Louisville vs. LSU · L 9–29; defense 70.8 percentile2017 Week 1: Louisville vs. Purdue · W 35–28; defense 56.9 percentile2017 Week 2: Louisville at North Carolina · W 47–35; defense 43.9 percentile2017 Week 3: Louisville vs. Clemson · L 21–47; defense 6.1 percentile2017 Week 4: Louisville vs. Kent State · W 42–3; defense 88.3 percentile2017 Week 5: Louisville vs. Murray State · W 55–10; defense 89.6 percentile2017 Week 6: Louisville at NC State · L 25–39; defense 31.0 percentile2017 Week 7: Louisville vs. Boston College · L 42–45; defense 5.5 percentile2017 Week 8: Louisville at Florida State · W 31–28; defense 28.1 percentile2017 Week 9: Louisville at Wake Forest · L 32–42; defense 18.4 percentile2017 Week 11: Louisville vs. Virginia · W 38–21; defense 42.0 percentile2017 Week 12: Louisville vs. Syracuse · W 56–10; defense 68.8 percentile2017 Week 13: Louisville at Kentucky · W 44–17; defense 46.5 percentile2017 Week 1: Louisville vs. Mississippi State · L 27–31; defense 44.7 percentile2018 Week 1: Louisville vs. Alabama · L 14–51; defense 17.0 percentile2018 Week 2: Louisville vs. Indiana State · W 31–7; defense 47.5 percentile2018 Week 3: Louisville vs. Western Kentucky · W 20–17; defense 32.5 percentile2018 Week 4: Louisville at Virginia · L 3–27; defense 31.4 percentile2018 Week 5: Louisville vs. Florida State · L 24–28; defense 43.1 percentile2018 Week 6: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech · L 31–66; defense 0.1 percentile2018 Week 7: Louisville at Boston College · L 20–38; defense 41.9 percentile2018 Week 9: Louisville vs. Wake Forest · L 35–56; defense 0.4 percentile2018 Week 10: Louisville at Clemson · L 16–77; defense 0.7 percentile2018 Week 11: Louisville at Syracuse · L 23–54; defense 36.7 percentile2018 Week 12: Louisville vs. NC State · L 10–52; defense 10.0 percentile2018 Week 13: Louisville vs. Kentucky · L 10–56; defense 0.2 percentile2019 Week 1: Louisville vs. Notre Dame · L 17–35; defense 34.9 percentile2019 Week 2: Louisville vs. Eastern Kentucky · W 42–0; defense 52.4 percentile2019 Week 3: Louisville vs. Western Kentucky · W 38–21; defense 90.6 percentile2019 Week 4: Louisville at Florida State · L 24–35; defense 40.9 percentile2019 Week 6: Louisville vs. Boston College · W 41–39; defense 16.0 percentile2019 Week 7: Louisville at Wake Forest · W 62–59; defense 14.2 percentile2019 Week 8: Louisville vs. Clemson · L 10–45; defense 39.5 percentile2019 Week 9: Louisville vs. Virginia · W 28–21; defense 77.1 percentile2019 Week 11: Louisville at Miami · L 27–52; defense 3.5 percentile2019 Week 12: Louisville at NC State · W 34–20; defense 46.0 percentile2019 Week 13: Louisville vs. Syracuse · W 56–34; defense 12.6 percentile2019 Week 14: Louisville at Kentucky · L 13–45; defense 4.0 percentile2019 Week 1: Louisville vs. Mississippi State · W 38–28; defense 58.9 percentile2020 Week 2: Louisville vs. Western Kentucky · W 35–21; defense 71.0 percentile2020 Week 3: Louisville vs. Miami · L 34–47; defense 26.5 percentile2020 Week 4: Louisville at Pittsburgh · L 20–23; defense 60.3 percentile2020 Week 6: Louisville at Georgia Tech · L 27–46; defense 5.8 percentile2020 Week 7: Louisville at Notre Dame · L 7–12; defense 61.3 percentile2020 Week 8: Louisville vs. Florida State · W 48–16; defense 54.1 percentile2020 Week 9: Louisville vs. Virginia Tech · L 35–42; defense 22.0 percentile2020 Week 11: Louisville at Virginia · L 17–31; defense 52.0 percentile2020 Week 12: Louisville vs. Syracuse · W 30–0; defense 74.4 percentile2020 Week 13: Louisville at Boston College · L 27–34; defense 15.6 percentile2020 Week 15: Louisville vs. Wake Forest · W 45–21; defense 62.3 percentile2021 Week 1: Louisville vs. Ole Miss · L 24–43; defense 17.1 percentile2021 Week 2: Louisville vs. Eastern Kentucky · W 30–3; defense 47.8 percentile2021 Week 3: Louisville vs. UCF · W 42–35; defense 18.0 percentile2021 Week 4: Louisville at Florida State · W 31–23; defense 75.6 percentile2021 Week 5: Louisville at Wake Forest · L 34–37; defense 46.4 percentile2021 Week 6: Louisville vs. Virginia · L 33–34; defense 63.8 percentile2021 Week 8: Louisville vs. Boston College · W 28–14; defense 76.8 percentile2021 Week 9: Louisville at NC State · L 13–28; defense 47.0 percentile2021 Week 10: Louisville vs. Clemson · L 24–30; defense 46.7 percentile2021 Week 11: Louisville vs. Syracuse · W 41–3; defense 94.3 percentile2021 Week 12: Louisville at Duke · W 62–22; defense 57.2 percentile2021 Week 13: Louisville vs. Kentucky · L 21–52; defense 7.1 percentile2021 Week 1: Louisville vs. Air Force · L 28–31; defense 27.4 percentile2022 Week 1: Louisville at Syracuse · L 7–31; defense 7.1 percentile2022 Week 2: Louisville at UCF · W 20–14; defense 85.1 percentile2022 Week 3: Louisville vs. Florida State · L 31–35; defense 59.9 percentile2022 Week 4: Louisville vs. South Florida · W 41–3; defense 98.8 percentile2022 Week 5: Louisville at Boston College · L 33–34; defense 32.3 percentile2022 Week 6: Louisville at Virginia · W 34–17; defense 74.9 percentile2022 Week 8: Louisville vs. Pittsburgh · W 24–10; defense 82.7 percentile2022 Week 9: Louisville vs. Wake Forest · W 48–21; defense 82.2 percentile2022 Week 10: Louisville vs. James Madison · W 34–10; defense 95.4 percentile2022 Week 11: Louisville at Clemson · L 16–31; defense 65.9 percentile2022 Week 12: Louisville vs. NC State · W 25–10; defense 82.1 percentile2022 Week 13: Louisville at Kentucky · L 13–26; defense 33.9 percentile2022 Week 1: Louisville vs. Cincinnati · W 24–7; defense 98.4 percentile2023 Week 2: Louisville vs. Murray State · W 56–0; defense 87.2 percentile2023 Week 3: Louisville vs. Indiana · W 21–14; defense 70.1 percentile2023 Week 4: Louisville vs. Boston College · W 56–28; defense 41.5 percentile2023 Week 5: Louisville at NC State · W 13–10; defense 95.4 percentile2023 Week 6: Louisville vs. Notre Dame · W 33–20; defense 97.8 percentile2023 Week 7: Louisville at Pittsburgh · L 21–38; defense 70.2 percentile2023 Week 9: Louisville vs. Duke · W 23–0; defense 93.1 percentile2023 Week 10: Louisville vs. Virginia Tech · W 34–3; defense 97.5 percentile2023 Week 11: Louisville vs. Virginia · W 31–24; defense 65.6 percentile2023 Week 12: Louisville at Miami · W 38–31; defense 47.0 percentile2023 Week 13: Louisville vs. Kentucky · L 31–38; defense 34.9 percentile2023 Week 14: Louisville vs. Florida State · L 6–16; defense 99.1 percentile2023 Week 1: Louisville vs. USC · L 28–42; defense 18.2 percentile2024 Week 1: Louisville vs. Austin Peay · W 62–0; defense 78.2 percentile2024 Week 2: Louisville vs. Jacksonville State · W 49–14; defense 94.4 percentile2024 Week 5: Louisville at Notre Dame · L 24–31; defense 73.9 percentile2024 Week 6: Louisville vs. SMU · L 27–34; defense 12.4 percentile2024 Week 7: Louisville at Virginia · W 24–20; defense 35.1 percentile2024 Week 8: Louisville vs. Miami · L 45–52; defense 13.3 percentile2024 Week 9: Louisville at Boston College · W 31–27; defense 72.3 percentile2024 Week 10: Louisville at Clemson · W 33–21; defense 76.9 percentile2024 Week 12: Louisville at Stanford · L 35–38; defense 28.7 percentile2024 Week 13: Louisville vs. Pittsburgh · W 37–9; defense 97.1 percentile2024 Week 14: Louisville at Kentucky · W 41–14; defense 69.2 percentile2024 Week 1: Louisville vs. Washington · W 35–34; defense 33.7 percentile2025 Week 1: Louisville vs. Eastern Kentucky · W 51–17; defense 58.0 percentile2025 Week 2: Louisville vs. James Madison · W 28–14; defense 95.8 percentile2025 Week 4: Louisville vs. Bowling Green · W 40–17; defense 63.9 percentile2025 Week 5: Louisville at Pittsburgh · W 34–27; defense 87.4 percentile2025 Week 6: Louisville vs. Virginia · L 27–30; defense 97.3 percentile2025 Week 8: Louisville at Miami · W 24–21; defense 84.1 percentile2025 Week 9: Louisville vs. Boston College · W 38–24; defense 48.3 percentile2025 Week 10: Louisville at Virginia Tech · W 28–16; defense 84.9 percentile2025 Week 11: Louisville vs. California · L 26–29; defense 28.8 percentile2025 Week 12: Louisville vs. Clemson · L 19–20; defense 73.2 percentile2025 Week 13: Louisville at SMU · L 6–38; defense 8.9 percentile2025 Week 14: Louisville vs. Kentucky · W 41–0; defense 89.0 percentile2025 Week 1: Louisville vs. Toledo · W 27–22; defense 56.9 percentile2026 Week 1: Louisville vs. Ole Miss · L 38–41; defense 40.5 percentile2026 Week 2: Louisville vs. Villanova · W 59–13; defense 21.4 percentile2014 defense season mean: 76.2 percentile2015 defense season mean: 66.8 percentile2016 defense season mean: 77.3 percentile2017 defense season mean: 42.1 percentile2018 defense season mean: 10.3 percentile2019 defense season mean: 33.8 percentile2020 defense season mean: 43.6 percentile2021 defense season mean: 47.9 percentile2022 defense season mean: 75.3 percentile2023 defense season mean: 79.1 percentile2024 defense season mean: 60.2 percentile2025 defense season mean: 71.7 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 63.9 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 30.2 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2014Bobby Petrino
2018Lorenzo Ward
2019Scott Satterfield
2022Scott Satterfield / Deion Branch
2023Jeff Brohm

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateJeff Brohm2
66.5 estimate83.1 games-only average
63.9 estimate30.2 games-only average
2025Jeff Brohm1361.571.7
2024Jeff Brohm1275.360.2
2023Jeff BrohmCoaching change1361.079.1
2022Scott Satterfield / Deion BranchCoaching change1356.675.3
2021Scott Satterfield1365.847.9
2020Scott Satterfield1154.243.6
2019Scott SatterfieldCoaching change1364.333.8
2018Lorenzo WardCoaching change1233.610.3
2017Bobby Petrino1390.342.1
2016Bobby Petrino1386.877.3
2015Bobby Petrino1357.866.8
2014Bobby PetrinoCoaching change1353.776.2