2014–2026 performance history

Northern Illinois over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

Mountain WestHead coach: Rob HarleyView Northern Illinois games →
Offense · 2026 estimate18.6/100

2.3 average through 1 game

22.5 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate32.5/100

27.7 average through 1 game

33.1 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

Northern Illinois individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.Carey · ’14–’18Rod Carey, 2014–2018Hammock · ’19–’25Thomas Hammock, 2019–2025HarleyRob Harley, 2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Presbyterian · W 55–3; offense 60.4 percentile2014 Week 2: Northern Illinois at Northwestern · W 23–15; offense 57.2 percentile2014 Week 3: Northern Illinois at UNLV · W 48–34; offense 80.0 percentile2014 Week 4: Northern Illinois at Arkansas · L 14–52; offense 23.5 percentile2014 Week 6: Northern Illinois vs. Kent State · W 17–14; offense 35.6 percentile2014 Week 7: Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan · L 17–34; offense 28.3 percentile2014 Week 8: Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) · W 51–41; offense 99.1 percentile2014 Week 9: Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan · W 28–17; offense 48.3 percentile2014 Week 11: Northern Illinois at Ball State · W 35–21; offense 36.0 percentile2014 Week 12: Northern Illinois vs. Toledo · W 27–24; offense 25.8 percentile2014 Week 13: Northern Illinois at Ohio · W 21–14; offense 50.3 percentile2014 Week 14: Northern Illinois at Western Michigan · W 31–21; offense 54.7 percentile2014 Week 15: Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green · W 51–17; offense 77.6 percentile2014 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Marshall · L 23–52; offense 45.0 percentile2015 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. UNLV · W 38–30; offense 61.0 percentile2015 Week 2: Northern Illinois vs. Murray State · W 57–26; offense 55.6 percentile2015 Week 3: Northern Illinois at Ohio State · L 13–20; offense 21.6 percentile2015 Week 4: Northern Illinois at Boston College · L 14–17; offense 14.7 percentile2015 Week 5: Northern Illinois at Central Michigan · L 19–29; offense 17.8 percentile2015 Week 6: Northern Illinois vs. Ball State · W 59–41; offense 88.8 percentile2015 Week 7: Northern Illinois at Miami (OH) · W 45–12; offense 95.2 percentile2015 Week 8: Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan · W 49–21; offense 63.6 percentile2015 Week 10: Northern Illinois at Toledo · W 32–27; offense 43.4 percentile2015 Week 11: Northern Illinois at Buffalo · W 41–30; offense 79.7 percentile2015 Week 12: Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan · W 27–19; offense 74.3 percentile2015 Week 13: Northern Illinois vs. Ohio · L 21–26; offense 9.5 percentile2015 Week 14: Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green · L 14–34; offense 3.5 percentile2015 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Boise State · L 7–55; offense 1.6 percentile2016 Week 1: Northern Illinois at Wyoming · L 34–40; offense 24.3 percentile2016 Week 2: Northern Illinois at South Florida · L 17–48; offense 5.9 percentile2016 Week 3: Northern Illinois vs. San Diego State · L 28–42; offense 80.8 percentile2016 Week 4: Northern Illinois vs. Western Illinois · L 23–28; offense 29.9 percentile2016 Week 5: Northern Illinois at Ball State · W 31–24; offense 78.5 percentile2016 Week 6: Northern Illinois at Western Michigan · L 30–45; offense 96.3 percentile2016 Week 8: Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo · W 44–7; offense 75.9 percentile2016 Week 10: Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green · W 45–20; offense 77.1 percentile2016 Week 11: Northern Illinois vs. Toledo · L 24–31; offense 56.6 percentile2016 Week 12: Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan · W 31–24; offense 46.9 percentile2016 Week 13: Northern Illinois at Kent State · W 31–21; offense 41.1 percentile2017 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Boston College · L 20–23; offense 25.6 percentile2017 Week 2: Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Illinois · W 38–10; offense 47.4 percentile2017 Week 3: Northern Illinois at Nebraska · W 21–17; offense 1.4 percentile2017 Week 5: Northern Illinois at San Diego State · L 28–34; offense 86.7 percentile2017 Week 6: Northern Illinois vs. Kent State · W 24–3; offense 6.5 percentile2017 Week 7: Northern Illinois at Buffalo · W 14–13; offense 37.9 percentile2017 Week 8: Northern Illinois at Bowling Green · W 48–17; offense 81.1 percentile2017 Week 10: Northern Illinois at Toledo · L 17–27; offense 60.6 percentile2017 Week 11: Northern Illinois vs. Ball State · W 63–17; offense 82.6 percentile2017 Week 12: Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan · W 35–31; offense 75.5 percentile2017 Week 13: Northern Illinois at Central Michigan · L 24–31; offense 14.0 percentile2017 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Duke · L 14–36; offense 11.7 percentile2018 Week 2: Northern Illinois vs. Utah · L 6–17; offense 19.0 percentile2018 Week 3: Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan · W 24–16; offense 27.0 percentile2018 Week 4: Northern Illinois at Florida State · L 19–37; offense 8.0 percentile2018 Week 5: Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan · W 26–23; offense 24.3 percentile2018 Week 6: Northern Illinois at Ball State · W 24–16; offense 37.7 percentile2018 Week 7: Northern Illinois vs. Ohio · W 24–21; offense 49.3 percentile2018 Week 9: Northern Illinois at BYU · W 7–6; offense 3.6 percentile2018 Week 10: Northern Illinois at Akron · W 36–26; offense 73.2 percentile2018 Week 11: Northern Illinois vs. Toledo · W 38–15; offense 74.7 percentile2018 Week 12: Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) · L 7–13; offense 35.3 percentile2018 Week 13: Northern Illinois at Western Michigan · L 21–28; offense 18.2 percentile2018 Week 14: Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo · W 30–29; offense 72.1 percentile2018 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. UAB · L 13–37; offense 43.5 percentile2019 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Illinois State · W 24–10; offense 1.6 percentile2019 Week 2: Northern Illinois at Utah · L 17–35; offense 68.5 percentile2019 Week 3: Northern Illinois at Nebraska · L 8–44; offense 3.0 percentile2019 Week 5: Northern Illinois at Vanderbilt · L 18–24; offense 26.2 percentile2019 Week 6: Northern Illinois vs. Ball State · L 20–27; offense 8.2 percentile2019 Week 7: Northern Illinois at Ohio · W 39–36; offense 82.6 percentile2019 Week 8: Northern Illinois at Miami (OH) · L 24–27; offense 31.9 percentile2019 Week 9: Northern Illinois vs. Akron · W 49–0; offense 56.2 percentile2019 Week 10: Northern Illinois at Central Michigan · L 10–48; offense 14.6 percentile2019 Week 12: Northern Illinois at Toledo · W 31–28; offense 41.2 percentile2019 Week 13: Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan · L 17–45; offense 29.0 percentile2019 Week 14: Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan · W 17–14; offense 1.6 percentile2020 Week 10: Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo · L 30–49; offense 46.7 percentile2020 Week 11: Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan · L 10–40; offense 0.2 percentile2020 Week 12: Northern Illinois at Ball State · L 25–31; offense 76.3 percentile2020 Week 13: Northern Illinois at Western Michigan · L 27–30; offense 14.6 percentile2020 Week 14: Northern Illinois vs. Toledo · L 24–41; offense 62.9 percentile2020 Week 15: Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan · L 33–41; offense 29.9 percentile2021 Week 3: Northern Illinois at Michigan · L 10–63; offense 16.4 percentile2021 Week 4: Northern Illinois vs. Maine · W 41–14; offense 68.0 percentile2021 Week 5: Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan · W 27–20; offense 7.5 percentile2021 Week 6: Northern Illinois at Toledo · W 22–20; offense 67.5 percentile2021 Week 8: Northern Illinois at Central Michigan · W 39–38; offense 95.2 percentile2021 Week 10: Northern Illinois at Kent State · L 47–52; offense 63.9 percentile2021 Week 11: Northern Illinois vs. Ball State · W 30–29; offense 52.9 percentile2021 Week 12: Northern Illinois at Buffalo · W 33–27; offense 37.4 percentile2021 Week 13: Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan · L 21–42; offense 55.1 percentile2021 Week 14: Northern Illinois vs. Kent State · W 41–23; offense 54.7 percentile2021 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina · L 41–47; offense 89.8 percentile2022 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Illinois · W 34–27; offense 35.2 percentile2022 Week 2: Northern Illinois at Tulsa · L 35–38; offense 61.3 percentile2022 Week 3: Northern Illinois vs. Vanderbilt · L 28–38; offense 55.8 percentile2022 Week 4: Northern Illinois at Kentucky · L 23–31; offense 58.9 percentile2022 Week 6: Northern Illinois vs. Toledo · L 32–52; offense 46.6 percentile2022 Week 7: Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan · W 39–10; offense 79.3 percentile2022 Week 8: Northern Illinois at Ohio · L 17–24; offense 35.0 percentile2022 Week 10: Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan · L 22–35; offense 33.0 percentile2022 Week 11: Northern Illinois at Western Michigan · W 24–21; offense 67.0 percentile2022 Week 12: Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) · L 23–29; offense 43.5 percentile2022 Week 13: Northern Illinois vs. Akron · L 12–44; offense 8.2 percentile2023 Week 1: Northern Illinois at Boston College · W 27–24; offense 18.3 percentile2023 Week 2: Northern Illinois vs. Southern Illinois · L 11–14; offense 5.0 percentile2023 Week 3: Northern Illinois at Nebraska · L 11–35; offense 9.7 percentile2023 Week 4: Northern Illinois vs. Tulsa · L 14–22; offense 10.3 percentile2023 Week 5: Northern Illinois at Toledo · L 33–35; offense 56.3 percentile2023 Week 6: Northern Illinois at Akron · W 55–14; offense 96.6 percentile2023 Week 7: Northern Illinois vs. Ohio · W 23–13; offense 89.8 percentile2023 Week 8: Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan · W 20–13; offense 41.6 percentile2023 Week 10: Northern Illinois at Central Michigan · L 31–37; offense 71.5 percentile2023 Week 11: Northern Illinois vs. Ball State · L 17–20; offense 55.9 percentile2023 Week 12: Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan · W 24–0; offense 58.6 percentile2023 Week 13: Northern Illinois at Kent State · W 37–27; offense 63.6 percentile2023 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State · W 21–19; offense 36.3 percentile2024 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Western Illinois · W 54–15; offense 97.4 percentile2024 Week 2: Northern Illinois at Notre Dame · W 16–14; offense 74.1 percentile2024 Week 4: Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo · L 20–23; offense 33.0 percentile2024 Week 5: Northern Illinois at NC State · L 17–24; offense 25.4 percentile2024 Week 6: Northern Illinois vs. Massachusetts · W 34–20; offense 89.0 percentile2024 Week 7: Northern Illinois at Bowling Green · W 17–7; offense 27.7 percentile2024 Week 8: Northern Illinois vs. Toledo · L 6–13; offense 23.9 percentile2024 Week 9: Northern Illinois at Ball State · L 23–25; offense 28.6 percentile2024 Week 11: Northern Illinois at Western Michigan · W 42–28; offense 94.0 percentile2024 Week 12: Northern Illinois vs. Akron · W 29–16; offense 68.7 percentile2024 Week 13: Northern Illinois at Miami (OH) · L 9–20; offense 24.0 percentile2024 Week 14: Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan · W 24–16; offense 26.0 percentile2024 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State · W 28–20; offense 23.8 percentile2025 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Holy Cross · W 19–17; offense 1.6 percentile2025 Week 2: Northern Illinois at Maryland · L 9–20; offense 4.6 percentile2025 Week 4: Northern Illinois at Mississippi State · L 10–38; offense 11.8 percentile2025 Week 5: Northern Illinois vs. San Diego State · L 3–6; offense 5.4 percentile2025 Week 6: Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) · L 14–25; offense 13.6 percentile2025 Week 7: Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan · L 10–16; offense 6.1 percentile2025 Week 8: Northern Illinois at Ohio · L 21–48; offense 83.7 percentile2025 Week 9: Northern Illinois vs. Ball State · W 21–7; offense 36.4 percentile2025 Week 11: Northern Illinois at Toledo · L 3–42; offense 13.7 percentile2025 Week 12: Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · W 45–3; offense 89.5 percentile2025 Week 13: Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan · L 19–35; offense 24.6 percentile2025 Week 14: Northern Illinois vs. Kent State · L 31–35; offense 54.6 percentile2026 Week 1: Northern Illinois at Iowa · L 0–40; offense 2.3 percentile2014 offense season mean: 54.8 percentile2015 offense season mean: 41.3 percentile2016 offense season mean: 57.1 percentile2017 offense season mean: 39.8 percentile2018 offense season mean: 34.2 percentile2019 offense season mean: 22.9 percentile2020 offense season mean: 27.9 percentile2021 offense season mean: 56.5 percentile2022 offense season mean: 46.6 percentile2023 offense season mean: 46.5 percentile2024 offense season mean: 52.5 percentile2025 offense season mean: 22.5 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 18.6 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 2.3 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Presbyterian · W 55–3; defense 86.2 percentile2014 Week 2: Northern Illinois at Northwestern · W 23–15; defense 75.3 percentile2014 Week 3: Northern Illinois at UNLV · W 48–34; defense 9.6 percentile2014 Week 4: Northern Illinois at Arkansas · L 14–52; defense 19.0 percentile2014 Week 6: Northern Illinois vs. Kent State · W 17–14; defense 80.3 percentile2014 Week 7: Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan · L 17–34; defense 22.2 percentile2014 Week 8: Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) · W 51–41; defense 0.9 percentile2014 Week 9: Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan · W 28–17; defense 19.7 percentile2014 Week 11: Northern Illinois at Ball State · W 35–21; defense 68.2 percentile2014 Week 12: Northern Illinois vs. Toledo · W 27–24; defense 69.4 percentile2014 Week 13: Northern Illinois at Ohio · W 21–14; defense 42.3 percentile2014 Week 14: Northern Illinois at Western Michigan · W 31–21; defense 85.2 percentile2014 Week 15: Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green · W 51–17; defense 69.8 percentile2014 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Marshall · L 23–52; defense 30.9 percentile2015 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. UNLV · W 38–30; defense 31.9 percentile2015 Week 2: Northern Illinois vs. Murray State · W 57–26; defense 11.7 percentile2015 Week 3: Northern Illinois at Ohio State · L 13–20; defense 79.8 percentile2015 Week 4: Northern Illinois at Boston College · L 14–17; defense 34.1 percentile2015 Week 5: Northern Illinois at Central Michigan · L 19–29; defense 70.9 percentile2015 Week 6: Northern Illinois vs. Ball State · W 59–41; defense 9.8 percentile2015 Week 7: Northern Illinois at Miami (OH) · W 45–12; defense 54.8 percentile2015 Week 8: Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan · W 49–21; defense 55.3 percentile2015 Week 10: Northern Illinois at Toledo · W 32–27; defense 62.3 percentile2015 Week 11: Northern Illinois at Buffalo · W 41–30; defense 50.4 percentile2015 Week 12: Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan · W 27–19; defense 66.2 percentile2015 Week 13: Northern Illinois vs. Ohio · L 21–26; defense 43.9 percentile2015 Week 14: Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green · L 14–34; defense 69.8 percentile2015 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Boise State · L 7–55; defense 7.7 percentile2016 Week 1: Northern Illinois at Wyoming · L 34–40; defense 56.0 percentile2016 Week 2: Northern Illinois at South Florida · L 17–48; defense 13.7 percentile2016 Week 3: Northern Illinois vs. San Diego State · L 28–42; defense 38.7 percentile2016 Week 4: Northern Illinois vs. Western Illinois · L 23–28; defense 10.8 percentile2016 Week 5: Northern Illinois at Ball State · W 31–24; defense 76.6 percentile2016 Week 6: Northern Illinois at Western Michigan · L 30–45; defense 22.7 percentile2016 Week 8: Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo · W 44–7; defense 59.1 percentile2016 Week 10: Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green · W 45–20; defense 63.1 percentile2016 Week 11: Northern Illinois vs. Toledo · L 24–31; defense 79.1 percentile2016 Week 12: Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan · W 31–24; defense 41.1 percentile2016 Week 13: Northern Illinois at Kent State · W 31–21; defense 65.8 percentile2017 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Boston College · L 20–23; defense 83.2 percentile2017 Week 2: Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Illinois · W 38–10; defense 76.0 percentile2017 Week 3: Northern Illinois at Nebraska · W 21–17; defense 76.2 percentile2017 Week 5: Northern Illinois at San Diego State · L 28–34; defense 98.0 percentile2017 Week 6: Northern Illinois vs. Kent State · W 24–3; defense 95.8 percentile2017 Week 7: Northern Illinois at Buffalo · W 14–13; defense 87.9 percentile2017 Week 8: Northern Illinois at Bowling Green · W 48–17; defense 62.4 percentile2017 Week 10: Northern Illinois at Toledo · L 17–27; defense 60.2 percentile2017 Week 11: Northern Illinois vs. Ball State · W 63–17; defense 79.7 percentile2017 Week 12: Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan · W 35–31; defense 55.9 percentile2017 Week 13: Northern Illinois at Central Michigan · L 24–31; defense 54.8 percentile2017 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Duke · L 14–36; defense 26.9 percentile2018 Week 2: Northern Illinois vs. Utah · L 6–17; defense 87.8 percentile2018 Week 3: Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan · W 24–16; defense 34.9 percentile2018 Week 4: Northern Illinois at Florida State · L 19–37; defense 45.0 percentile2018 Week 5: Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan · W 26–23; defense 97.7 percentile2018 Week 6: Northern Illinois at Ball State · W 24–16; defense 73.5 percentile2018 Week 7: Northern Illinois vs. Ohio · W 24–21; defense 90.4 percentile2018 Week 9: Northern Illinois at BYU · W 7–6; defense 91.6 percentile2018 Week 10: Northern Illinois at Akron · W 36–26; defense 35.8 percentile2018 Week 11: Northern Illinois vs. Toledo · W 38–15; defense 86.3 percentile2018 Week 12: Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) · L 7–13; defense 98.7 percentile2018 Week 13: Northern Illinois at Western Michigan · L 21–28; defense 67.6 percentile2018 Week 14: Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo · W 30–29; defense 49.8 percentile2018 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. UAB · L 13–37; defense 24.6 percentile2019 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Illinois State · W 24–10; defense 70.0 percentile2019 Week 2: Northern Illinois at Utah · L 17–35; defense 35.9 percentile2019 Week 3: Northern Illinois at Nebraska · L 8–44; defense 16.3 percentile2019 Week 5: Northern Illinois at Vanderbilt · L 18–24; defense 30.9 percentile2019 Week 6: Northern Illinois vs. Ball State · L 20–27; defense 88.9 percentile2019 Week 7: Northern Illinois at Ohio · W 39–36; defense 47.3 percentile2019 Week 8: Northern Illinois at Miami (OH) · L 24–27; defense 50.6 percentile2019 Week 9: Northern Illinois vs. Akron · W 49–0; defense 59.3 percentile2019 Week 10: Northern Illinois at Central Michigan · L 10–48; defense 9.4 percentile2019 Week 12: Northern Illinois at Toledo · W 31–28; defense 40.0 percentile2019 Week 13: Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan · L 17–45; defense 0.9 percentile2019 Week 14: Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan · W 17–14; defense 92.5 percentile2020 Week 10: Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo · L 30–49; defense 60.8 percentile2020 Week 11: Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan · L 10–40; defense 33.4 percentile2020 Week 12: Northern Illinois at Ball State · L 25–31; defense 31.3 percentile2020 Week 13: Northern Illinois at Western Michigan · L 27–30; defense 87.5 percentile2020 Week 14: Northern Illinois vs. Toledo · L 24–41; defense 11.6 percentile2020 Week 15: Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan · L 33–41; defense 61.1 percentile2021 Week 3: Northern Illinois at Michigan · L 10–63; defense 11.7 percentile2021 Week 4: Northern Illinois vs. Maine · W 41–14; defense 17.2 percentile2021 Week 5: Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan · W 27–20; defense 23.5 percentile2021 Week 6: Northern Illinois at Toledo · W 22–20; defense 62.6 percentile2021 Week 8: Northern Illinois at Central Michigan · W 39–38; defense 9.2 percentile2021 Week 10: Northern Illinois at Kent State · L 47–52; defense 2.5 percentile2021 Week 11: Northern Illinois vs. Ball State · W 30–29; defense 25.8 percentile2021 Week 12: Northern Illinois at Buffalo · W 33–27; defense 39.8 percentile2021 Week 13: Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan · L 21–42; defense 5.0 percentile2021 Week 14: Northern Illinois vs. Kent State · W 41–23; defense 64.0 percentile2021 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina · L 41–47; defense 20.5 percentile2022 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Illinois · W 34–27; defense 0.6 percentile2022 Week 2: Northern Illinois at Tulsa · L 35–38; defense 16.5 percentile2022 Week 3: Northern Illinois vs. Vanderbilt · L 28–38; defense 3.2 percentile2022 Week 4: Northern Illinois at Kentucky · L 23–31; defense 13.0 percentile2022 Week 6: Northern Illinois vs. Toledo · L 32–52; defense 9.8 percentile2022 Week 7: Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan · W 39–10; defense 92.0 percentile2022 Week 8: Northern Illinois at Ohio · L 17–24; defense 44.4 percentile2022 Week 10: Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan · L 22–35; defense 5.7 percentile2022 Week 11: Northern Illinois at Western Michigan · W 24–21; defense 33.0 percentile2022 Week 12: Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) · L 23–29; defense 19.5 percentile2022 Week 13: Northern Illinois vs. Akron · L 12–44; defense 1.6 percentile2023 Week 1: Northern Illinois at Boston College · W 27–24; defense 64.9 percentile2023 Week 2: Northern Illinois vs. Southern Illinois · L 11–14; defense 31.2 percentile2023 Week 3: Northern Illinois at Nebraska · L 11–35; defense 17.5 percentile2023 Week 4: Northern Illinois vs. Tulsa · L 14–22; defense 48.8 percentile2023 Week 5: Northern Illinois at Toledo · L 33–35; defense 35.0 percentile2023 Week 6: Northern Illinois at Akron · W 55–14; defense 75.1 percentile2023 Week 7: Northern Illinois vs. Ohio · W 23–13; defense 53.8 percentile2023 Week 8: Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan · W 20–13; defense 51.7 percentile2023 Week 10: Northern Illinois at Central Michigan · L 31–37; defense 9.9 percentile2023 Week 11: Northern Illinois vs. Ball State · L 17–20; defense 40.2 percentile2023 Week 12: Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan · W 24–0; defense 91.9 percentile2023 Week 13: Northern Illinois at Kent State · W 37–27; defense 8.1 percentile2023 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State · W 21–19; defense 50.5 percentile2024 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Western Illinois · W 54–15; defense 53.7 percentile2024 Week 2: Northern Illinois at Notre Dame · W 16–14; defense 80.1 percentile2024 Week 4: Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo · L 20–23; defense 85.0 percentile2024 Week 5: Northern Illinois at NC State · L 17–24; defense 88.7 percentile2024 Week 6: Northern Illinois vs. Massachusetts · W 34–20; defense 24.0 percentile2024 Week 7: Northern Illinois at Bowling Green · W 17–7; defense 87.1 percentile2024 Week 8: Northern Illinois vs. Toledo · L 6–13; defense 70.8 percentile2024 Week 9: Northern Illinois at Ball State · L 23–25; defense 36.9 percentile2024 Week 11: Northern Illinois at Western Michigan · W 42–28; defense 35.7 percentile2024 Week 12: Northern Illinois vs. Akron · W 29–16; defense 69.5 percentile2024 Week 13: Northern Illinois at Miami (OH) · L 9–20; defense 56.7 percentile2024 Week 14: Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan · W 24–16; defense 66.4 percentile2024 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State · W 28–20; defense 37.8 percentile2025 Week 1: Northern Illinois vs. Holy Cross · W 19–17; defense 60.3 percentile2025 Week 2: Northern Illinois at Maryland · L 9–20; defense 54.8 percentile2025 Week 4: Northern Illinois at Mississippi State · L 10–38; defense 8.1 percentile2025 Week 5: Northern Illinois vs. San Diego State · L 3–6; defense 93.9 percentile2025 Week 6: Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) · L 14–25; defense 53.1 percentile2025 Week 7: Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan · L 10–16; defense 87.3 percentile2025 Week 8: Northern Illinois at Ohio · L 21–48; defense 4.4 percentile2025 Week 9: Northern Illinois vs. Ball State · W 21–7; defense 40.8 percentile2025 Week 11: Northern Illinois at Toledo · L 3–42; defense 5.8 percentile2025 Week 12: Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · W 45–3; defense 78.2 percentile2025 Week 13: Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan · L 19–35; defense 4.6 percentile2025 Week 14: Northern Illinois vs. Kent State · L 31–35; defense 0.5 percentile2026 Week 1: Northern Illinois at Iowa · L 0–40; defense 27.7 percentile2014 defense season mean: 45.2 percentile2015 defense season mean: 44.2 percentile2016 defense season mean: 46.6 percentile2017 defense season mean: 75.7 percentile2018 defense season mean: 74.7 percentile2019 defense season mean: 42.1 percentile2020 defense season mean: 47.3 percentile2021 defense season mean: 21.1 percentile2022 defense season mean: 14.8 percentile2023 defense season mean: 43.4 percentile2024 defense season mean: 62.8 percentile2025 defense season mean: 33.1 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 32.5 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 27.7 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2019Thomas Hammock
2026Rob Harley

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateRob HarleyCoaching change1
18.6 estimate2.3 games-only average
32.5 estimate27.7 games-only average
2025Thomas Hammock1222.533.1
2024Thomas Hammock1352.562.8
2023Thomas Hammock1346.543.4
2022Thomas Hammock1146.614.8
2021Thomas Hammock1156.521.1
2020Thomas Hammock627.947.3
2019Thomas HammockCoaching change1222.942.1
2018Rod Carey1334.274.7
2017Rod Carey1239.875.7
2016Rod Carey1157.146.6
2015Rod Carey1441.344.2
2014Rod Carey1454.845.2