2014–2026 performance history

Michigan State over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

Big TenHead coach: Pat FitzgeraldView Michigan State games →
Offense · 2026 estimate45.7/100

78.8 average through 2 games

36.9 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate42.6/100

57.8 average through 2 games

38.9 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

Michigan State individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.Dantonio · ’14–’19Mark Dantonio, 2014–2019Tucker · ’20–’22Mel Tucker, 2020–2022BarnettHarlon Barnett, 2023Smith · ’24–’25Jonathan Smith, 2024–2025FitzgeraldPat Fitzgerald, 2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Jacksonville State · W 45–7; offense 59.3 percentile2014 Week 2: Michigan State at Oregon · L 27–46; offense 49.1 percentile2014 Week 4: Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan · W 73–14; offense 81.0 percentile2014 Week 5: Michigan State vs. Wyoming · W 56–14; offense 86.0 percentile2014 Week 6: Michigan State vs. Nebraska · W 27–22; offense 32.9 percentile2014 Week 7: Michigan State at Purdue · W 45–31; offense 85.9 percentile2014 Week 8: Michigan State at Indiana · W 56–17; offense 94.9 percentile2014 Week 9: Michigan State vs. Michigan · W 35–11; offense 83.7 percentile2014 Week 11: Michigan State vs. Ohio State · L 37–49; offense 83.5 percentile2014 Week 12: Michigan State at Maryland · W 37–15; offense 64.6 percentile2014 Week 13: Michigan State vs. Rutgers · W 45–3; offense 88.9 percentile2014 Week 14: Michigan State at Penn State · W 34–10; offense 81.2 percentile2014 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Baylor · W 42–41; offense 97.0 percentile2015 Week 1: Michigan State at Western Michigan · W 37–24; offense 93.1 percentile2015 Week 2: Michigan State vs. Oregon · W 31–28; offense 34.3 percentile2015 Week 3: Michigan State vs. Air Force · W 35–21; offense 54.4 percentile2015 Week 4: Michigan State vs. Central Michigan · W 30–10; offense 93.0 percentile2015 Week 5: Michigan State vs. Purdue · W 24–21; offense 33.5 percentile2015 Week 6: Michigan State at Rutgers · W 31–24; offense 45.7 percentile2015 Week 7: Michigan State at Michigan · W 27–23; offense 65.1 percentile2015 Week 8: Michigan State vs. Indiana · W 52–26; offense 53.5 percentile2015 Week 10: Michigan State at Nebraska · L 38–39; offense 82.3 percentile2015 Week 11: Michigan State vs. Maryland · W 24–7; offense 14.6 percentile2015 Week 12: Michigan State at Ohio State · W 17–14; offense 71.3 percentile2015 Week 13: Michigan State vs. Penn State · W 55–16; offense 99.0 percentile2015 Week 14: Michigan State vs. Iowa · W 16–13; offense 56.0 percentile2015 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Alabama · L 0–38; offense 12.7 percentile2016 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Furman · W 28–13; offense 22.8 percentile2016 Week 3: Michigan State at Notre Dame · W 36–28; offense 87.0 percentile2016 Week 4: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin · L 6–30; offense 26.5 percentile2016 Week 5: Michigan State at Indiana · L 21–24; offense 59.0 percentile2016 Week 6: Michigan State vs. BYU · L 14–31; offense 33.9 percentile2016 Week 7: Michigan State vs. Northwestern · L 40–54; offense 61.5 percentile2016 Week 8: Michigan State at Maryland · L 17–28; offense 51.9 percentile2016 Week 9: Michigan State vs. Michigan · L 23–32; offense 78.4 percentile2016 Week 10: Michigan State at Illinois · L 27–31; offense 35.5 percentile2016 Week 11: Michigan State vs. Rutgers · W 49–0; offense 82.9 percentile2016 Week 12: Michigan State vs. Ohio State · L 16–17; offense 66.4 percentile2016 Week 13: Michigan State at Penn State · L 12–45; offense 38.1 percentile2017 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Bowling Green · W 35–10; offense 31.8 percentile2017 Week 2: Michigan State vs. Western Michigan · W 28–14; offense 84.7 percentile2017 Week 4: Michigan State vs. Notre Dame · L 18–38; offense 70.7 percentile2017 Week 5: Michigan State vs. Iowa · W 17–10; offense 23.7 percentile2017 Week 6: Michigan State at Michigan · W 14–10; offense 21.3 percentile2017 Week 7: Michigan State at Minnesota · W 30–27; offense 45.2 percentile2017 Week 8: Michigan State vs. Indiana · W 17–9; offense 16.5 percentile2017 Week 9: Michigan State at Northwestern · L 31–39; offense 81.6 percentile2017 Week 10: Michigan State vs. Penn State · W 27–24; offense 82.4 percentile2017 Week 11: Michigan State at Ohio State · L 3–48; offense 29.2 percentile2017 Week 12: Michigan State vs. Maryland · W 17–7; offense 15.4 percentile2017 Week 13: Michigan State at Rutgers · W 40–7; offense 64.6 percentile2017 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Washington State · W 42–17; offense 97.2 percentile2018 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Utah State · W 38–31; offense 89.6 percentile2018 Week 2: Michigan State at Arizona State · L 13–16; offense 32.9 percentile2018 Week 4: Michigan State at Indiana · W 35–21; offense 20.0 percentile2018 Week 5: Michigan State vs. Central Michigan · W 31–20; offense 63.9 percentile2018 Week 6: Michigan State vs. Northwestern · L 19–29; offense 32.2 percentile2018 Week 7: Michigan State at Penn State · W 21–17; offense 39.2 percentile2018 Week 8: Michigan State vs. Michigan · L 7–21; offense 2.3 percentile2018 Week 9: Michigan State vs. Purdue · W 23–13; offense 17.0 percentile2018 Week 10: Michigan State at Maryland · W 24–3; offense 43.0 percentile2018 Week 11: Michigan State vs. Ohio State · L 6–26; offense 1.0 percentile2018 Week 12: Michigan State at Nebraska · L 6–9; offense 5.6 percentile2018 Week 13: Michigan State vs. Rutgers · W 14–10; offense 10.4 percentile2018 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Oregon · L 6–7; offense 11.5 percentile2019 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Tulsa · W 28–7; offense 12.3 percentile2019 Week 2: Michigan State vs. Western Michigan · W 51–17; offense 94.1 percentile2019 Week 3: Michigan State vs. Arizona State · L 7–10; offense 28.4 percentile2019 Week 4: Michigan State at Northwestern · W 31–10; offense 53.8 percentile2019 Week 5: Michigan State vs. Indiana · W 40–31; offense 51.7 percentile2019 Week 6: Michigan State at Ohio State · L 10–34; offense 48.1 percentile2019 Week 7: Michigan State at Wisconsin · L 0–38; offense 4.6 percentile2019 Week 9: Michigan State vs. Penn State · L 7–28; offense 21.1 percentile2019 Week 11: Michigan State vs. Illinois · L 34–37; offense 47.8 percentile2019 Week 12: Michigan State at Michigan · L 10–44; offense 29.1 percentile2019 Week 13: Michigan State at Rutgers · W 27–0; offense 15.7 percentile2019 Week 14: Michigan State vs. Maryland · W 19–16; offense 10.0 percentile2019 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Wake Forest · W 27–21; offense 58.5 percentile2020 Week 8: Michigan State vs. Rutgers · L 27–38; offense 9.1 percentile2020 Week 9: Michigan State at Michigan · W 27–24; offense 35.4 percentile2020 Week 10: Michigan State at Iowa · L 7–49; offense 23.7 percentile2020 Week 11: Michigan State vs. Indiana · L 0–24; offense 5.0 percentile2020 Week 13: Michigan State vs. Northwestern · W 29–20; offense 62.3 percentile2020 Week 14: Michigan State vs. Ohio State · L 12–52; offense 5.3 percentile2020 Week 15: Michigan State at Penn State · L 24–39; offense 38.9 percentile2021 Week 1: Michigan State at Northwestern · W 38–21; offense 81.7 percentile2021 Week 2: Michigan State vs. Youngstown State · W 42–14; offense 87.6 percentile2021 Week 3: Michigan State at Miami · W 38–17; offense 69.8 percentile2021 Week 4: Michigan State vs. Nebraska · W 23–20; offense 8.0 percentile2021 Week 5: Michigan State vs. Western Kentucky · W 48–31; offense 78.9 percentile2021 Week 6: Michigan State at Rutgers · W 31–13; offense 43.0 percentile2021 Week 7: Michigan State at Indiana · W 20–15; offense 17.9 percentile2021 Week 9: Michigan State vs. Michigan · W 37–33; offense 84.8 percentile2021 Week 10: Michigan State at Purdue · L 29–40; offense 69.8 percentile2021 Week 11: Michigan State vs. Maryland · W 40–21; offense 74.8 percentile2021 Week 12: Michigan State at Ohio State · L 7–56; offense 4.4 percentile2021 Week 13: Michigan State vs. Penn State · W 30–27; offense 79.3 percentile2021 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Pittsburgh · W 31–21; offense 34.5 percentile2022 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Western Michigan · W 35–13; offense 80.9 percentile2022 Week 2: Michigan State vs. Akron · W 52–0; offense 72.9 percentile2022 Week 3: Michigan State at Washington · L 28–39; offense 28.0 percentile2022 Week 4: Michigan State vs. Minnesota · L 7–34; offense 31.6 percentile2022 Week 5: Michigan State at Maryland · L 13–27; offense 58.0 percentile2022 Week 6: Michigan State vs. Ohio State · L 20–49; offense 13.9 percentile2022 Week 7: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin · W 34–28; offense 60.9 percentile2022 Week 9: Michigan State at Michigan · L 7–29; offense 25.0 percentile2022 Week 10: Michigan State at Illinois · W 23–15; offense 57.7 percentile2022 Week 11: Michigan State vs. Rutgers · W 27–21; offense 80.0 percentile2022 Week 12: Michigan State vs. Indiana · L 31–39; offense 33.6 percentile2022 Week 13: Michigan State at Penn State · L 16–35; offense 21.9 percentile2023 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Central Michigan · W 31–7; offense 41.3 percentile2023 Week 2: Michigan State vs. Richmond · W 45–14; offense 52.8 percentile2023 Week 3: Michigan State vs. Washington · L 7–41; offense 0.9 percentile2023 Week 4: Michigan State vs. Maryland · L 9–31; offense 32.5 percentile2023 Week 5: Michigan State at Iowa · L 16–26; offense 44.3 percentile2023 Week 7: Michigan State at Rutgers · L 24–27; offense 27.0 percentile2023 Week 8: Michigan State vs. Michigan · L 0–49; offense 8.2 percentile2023 Week 9: Michigan State at Minnesota · L 12–27; offense 28.7 percentile2023 Week 10: Michigan State vs. Nebraska · W 20–17; offense 31.7 percentile2023 Week 11: Michigan State at Ohio State · L 3–38; offense 25.4 percentile2023 Week 12: Michigan State at Indiana · W 24–21; offense 35.6 percentile2023 Week 13: Michigan State vs. Penn State · L 0–42; offense 0.5 percentile2024 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Florida Atlantic · W 16–10; offense 9.3 percentile2024 Week 2: Michigan State at Maryland · W 27–24; offense 59.8 percentile2024 Week 3: Michigan State vs. Prairie View A&M · W 40–0; offense 59.0 percentile2024 Week 4: Michigan State at Boston College · L 19–23; offense 32.2 percentile2024 Week 5: Michigan State vs. Ohio State · L 7–38; offense 28.7 percentile2024 Week 6: Michigan State at Oregon · L 10–31; offense 22.6 percentile2024 Week 8: Michigan State vs. Iowa · W 32–20; offense 94.4 percentile2024 Week 9: Michigan State at Michigan · L 17–24; offense 83.0 percentile2024 Week 10: Michigan State vs. Indiana · L 10–47; offense 9.2 percentile2024 Week 12: Michigan State at Illinois · L 16–38; offense 28.1 percentile2024 Week 13: Michigan State vs. Purdue · W 24–17; offense 8.2 percentile2024 Week 14: Michigan State vs. Rutgers · L 14–41; offense 0.7 percentile2025 Week 2: Michigan State vs. Boston College · W 42–40; offense 27.4 percentile2025 Week 3: Michigan State vs. Youngstown State · W 41–24; offense 40.2 percentile2025 Week 4: Michigan State at USC · L 31–45; offense 50.5 percentile2025 Week 6: Michigan State at Nebraska · L 27–38; offense 6.0 percentile2025 Week 8: Michigan State at Indiana · L 13–38; offense 53.6 percentile2025 Week 9: Michigan State vs. Michigan · L 20–31; offense 12.5 percentile2025 Week 10: Michigan State at Minnesota · L 20–23; offense 52.1 percentile2025 Week 12: Michigan State vs. Penn State · L 10–28; offense 27.0 percentile2025 Week 13: Michigan State at Iowa · L 17–20; offense 32.6 percentile2025 Week 14: Michigan State vs. Maryland · W 38–28; offense 86.7 percentile2026 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Toledo · W 30–20; offense 67.7 percentile2026 Week 2: Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan · W 35–7; offense 87.3 percentile2014 offense season mean: 79.6 percentile2015 offense season mean: 62.3 percentile2016 offense season mean: 54.6 percentile2017 offense season mean: 53.2 percentile2018 offense season mean: 22.3 percentile2019 offense season mean: 34.4 percentile2020 offense season mean: 21.0 percentile2021 offense season mean: 55.5 percentile2022 offense season mean: 46.6 percentile2023 offense season mean: 20.7 percentile2024 offense season mean: 31.3 percentile2025 offense season mean: 36.9 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 45.7 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 78.8 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Jacksonville State · W 45–7; defense 61.0 percentile2014 Week 2: Michigan State at Oregon · L 27–46; defense 73.2 percentile2014 Week 4: Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan · W 73–14; defense 92.4 percentile2014 Week 5: Michigan State vs. Wyoming · W 56–14; defense 61.3 percentile2014 Week 6: Michigan State vs. Nebraska · W 27–22; defense 99.1 percentile2014 Week 7: Michigan State at Purdue · W 45–31; defense 39.5 percentile2014 Week 8: Michigan State at Indiana · W 56–17; defense 90.7 percentile2014 Week 9: Michigan State vs. Michigan · W 35–11; defense 94.6 percentile2014 Week 11: Michigan State vs. Ohio State · L 37–49; defense 5.7 percentile2014 Week 12: Michigan State at Maryland · W 37–15; defense 94.1 percentile2014 Week 13: Michigan State vs. Rutgers · W 45–3; defense 95.2 percentile2014 Week 14: Michigan State at Penn State · W 34–10; defense 80.8 percentile2014 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Baylor · W 42–41; defense 58.0 percentile2015 Week 1: Michigan State at Western Michigan · W 37–24; defense 82.7 percentile2015 Week 2: Michigan State vs. Oregon · W 31–28; defense 89.6 percentile2015 Week 3: Michigan State vs. Air Force · W 35–21; defense 44.6 percentile2015 Week 4: Michigan State vs. Central Michigan · W 30–10; defense 80.2 percentile2015 Week 5: Michigan State vs. Purdue · W 24–21; defense 42.1 percentile2015 Week 6: Michigan State at Rutgers · W 31–24; defense 50.6 percentile2015 Week 7: Michigan State at Michigan · W 27–23; defense 95.8 percentile2015 Week 8: Michigan State vs. Indiana · W 52–26; defense 46.1 percentile2015 Week 10: Michigan State at Nebraska · L 38–39; defense 15.2 percentile2015 Week 11: Michigan State vs. Maryland · W 24–7; defense 89.7 percentile2015 Week 12: Michigan State at Ohio State · W 17–14; defense 94.8 percentile2015 Week 13: Michigan State vs. Penn State · W 55–16; defense 14.0 percentile2015 Week 14: Michigan State vs. Iowa · W 16–13; defense 83.2 percentile2015 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Alabama · L 0–38; defense 31.7 percentile2016 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Furman · W 28–13; defense 55.0 percentile2016 Week 3: Michigan State at Notre Dame · W 36–28; defense 75.1 percentile2016 Week 4: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin · L 6–30; defense 56.8 percentile2016 Week 5: Michigan State at Indiana · L 21–24; defense 38.9 percentile2016 Week 6: Michigan State vs. BYU · L 14–31; defense 38.5 percentile2016 Week 7: Michigan State vs. Northwestern · L 40–54; defense 11.0 percentile2016 Week 8: Michigan State at Maryland · L 17–28; defense 39.2 percentile2016 Week 9: Michigan State vs. Michigan · L 23–32; defense 44.4 percentile2016 Week 10: Michigan State at Illinois · L 27–31; defense 17.3 percentile2016 Week 11: Michigan State vs. Rutgers · W 49–0; defense 83.6 percentile2016 Week 12: Michigan State vs. Ohio State · L 16–17; defense 78.2 percentile2016 Week 13: Michigan State at Penn State · L 12–45; defense 30.2 percentile2017 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Bowling Green · W 35–10; defense 92.4 percentile2017 Week 2: Michigan State vs. Western Michigan · W 28–14; defense 91.3 percentile2017 Week 4: Michigan State vs. Notre Dame · L 18–38; defense 36.7 percentile2017 Week 5: Michigan State vs. Iowa · W 17–10; defense 95.9 percentile2017 Week 6: Michigan State at Michigan · W 14–10; defense 72.3 percentile2017 Week 7: Michigan State at Minnesota · W 30–27; defense 60.8 percentile2017 Week 8: Michigan State vs. Indiana · W 17–9; defense 93.7 percentile2017 Week 9: Michigan State at Northwestern · L 31–39; defense 62.3 percentile2017 Week 10: Michigan State vs. Penn State · W 27–24; defense 71.7 percentile2017 Week 11: Michigan State at Ohio State · L 3–48; defense 17.1 percentile2017 Week 12: Michigan State vs. Maryland · W 17–7; defense 86.1 percentile2017 Week 13: Michigan State at Rutgers · W 40–7; defense 74.9 percentile2017 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Washington State · W 42–17; defense 59.7 percentile2018 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Utah State · W 38–31; defense 82.4 percentile2018 Week 2: Michigan State at Arizona State · L 13–16; defense 91.1 percentile2018 Week 4: Michigan State at Indiana · W 35–21; defense 93.3 percentile2018 Week 5: Michigan State vs. Central Michigan · W 31–20; defense 51.3 percentile2018 Week 6: Michigan State vs. Northwestern · L 19–29; defense 51.4 percentile2018 Week 7: Michigan State at Penn State · W 21–17; defense 86.0 percentile2018 Week 8: Michigan State vs. Michigan · L 7–21; defense 85.5 percentile2018 Week 9: Michigan State vs. Purdue · W 23–13; defense 84.8 percentile2018 Week 10: Michigan State at Maryland · W 24–3; defense 98.9 percentile2018 Week 11: Michigan State vs. Ohio State · L 6–26; defense 98.6 percentile2018 Week 12: Michigan State at Nebraska · L 6–9; defense 98.5 percentile2018 Week 13: Michigan State vs. Rutgers · W 14–10; defense 64.7 percentile2018 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Oregon · L 6–7; defense 99.5 percentile2019 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Tulsa · W 28–7; defense 99.1 percentile2019 Week 2: Michigan State vs. Western Michigan · W 51–17; defense 90.6 percentile2019 Week 3: Michigan State vs. Arizona State · L 7–10; defense 86.9 percentile2019 Week 4: Michigan State at Northwestern · W 31–10; defense 87.7 percentile2019 Week 5: Michigan State vs. Indiana · W 40–31; defense 72.7 percentile2019 Week 6: Michigan State at Ohio State · L 10–34; defense 54.9 percentile2019 Week 7: Michigan State at Wisconsin · L 0–38; defense 49.5 percentile2019 Week 9: Michigan State vs. Penn State · L 7–28; defense 74.6 percentile2019 Week 11: Michigan State vs. Illinois · L 34–37; defense 63.6 percentile2019 Week 12: Michigan State at Michigan · L 10–44; defense 18.7 percentile2019 Week 13: Michigan State at Rutgers · W 27–0; defense 82.5 percentile2019 Week 14: Michigan State vs. Maryland · W 19–16; defense 67.3 percentile2019 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Wake Forest · W 27–21; defense 46.9 percentile2020 Week 8: Michigan State vs. Rutgers · L 27–38; defense 56.2 percentile2020 Week 9: Michigan State at Michigan · W 27–24; defense 79.9 percentile2020 Week 10: Michigan State at Iowa · L 7–49; defense 30.2 percentile2020 Week 11: Michigan State vs. Indiana · L 0–24; defense 33.6 percentile2020 Week 13: Michigan State vs. Northwestern · W 29–20; defense 84.3 percentile2020 Week 14: Michigan State vs. Ohio State · L 12–52; defense 57.3 percentile2020 Week 15: Michigan State at Penn State · L 24–39; defense 60.2 percentile2021 Week 1: Michigan State at Northwestern · W 38–21; defense 49.8 percentile2021 Week 2: Michigan State vs. Youngstown State · W 42–14; defense 40.0 percentile2021 Week 3: Michigan State at Miami · W 38–17; defense 69.9 percentile2021 Week 4: Michigan State vs. Nebraska · W 23–20; defense 56.3 percentile2021 Week 5: Michigan State vs. Western Kentucky · W 48–31; defense 76.7 percentile2021 Week 6: Michigan State at Rutgers · W 31–13; defense 58.4 percentile2021 Week 7: Michigan State at Indiana · W 20–15; defense 44.8 percentile2021 Week 9: Michigan State vs. Michigan · W 37–33; defense 65.0 percentile2021 Week 10: Michigan State at Purdue · L 29–40; defense 35.4 percentile2021 Week 11: Michigan State vs. Maryland · W 40–21; defense 55.8 percentile2021 Week 12: Michigan State at Ohio State · L 7–56; defense 12.7 percentile2021 Week 13: Michigan State vs. Penn State · W 30–27; defense 52.4 percentile2021 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Pittsburgh · W 31–21; defense 75.6 percentile2022 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Western Michigan · W 35–13; defense 71.4 percentile2022 Week 2: Michigan State vs. Akron · W 52–0; defense 98.2 percentile2022 Week 3: Michigan State at Washington · L 28–39; defense 65.1 percentile2022 Week 4: Michigan State vs. Minnesota · L 7–34; defense 3.3 percentile2022 Week 5: Michigan State at Maryland · L 13–27; defense 26.2 percentile2022 Week 6: Michigan State vs. Ohio State · L 20–49; defense 4.8 percentile2022 Week 7: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin · W 34–28; defense 69.3 percentile2022 Week 9: Michigan State at Michigan · L 7–29; defense 39.0 percentile2022 Week 10: Michigan State at Illinois · W 23–15; defense 82.9 percentile2022 Week 11: Michigan State vs. Rutgers · W 27–21; defense 6.6 percentile2022 Week 12: Michigan State vs. Indiana · L 31–39; defense 23.0 percentile2022 Week 13: Michigan State at Penn State · L 16–35; defense 54.4 percentile2023 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Central Michigan · W 31–7; defense 98.8 percentile2023 Week 2: Michigan State vs. Richmond · W 45–14; defense 80.4 percentile2023 Week 3: Michigan State vs. Washington · L 7–41; defense 20.7 percentile2023 Week 4: Michigan State vs. Maryland · L 9–31; defense 50.3 percentile2023 Week 5: Michigan State at Iowa · L 16–26; defense 54.7 percentile2023 Week 7: Michigan State at Rutgers · L 24–27; defense 24.3 percentile2023 Week 8: Michigan State vs. Michigan · L 0–49; defense 29.7 percentile2023 Week 9: Michigan State at Minnesota · L 12–27; defense 33.3 percentile2023 Week 10: Michigan State vs. Nebraska · W 20–17; defense 78.3 percentile2023 Week 11: Michigan State at Ohio State · L 3–38; defense 4.6 percentile2023 Week 12: Michigan State at Indiana · W 24–21; defense 16.8 percentile2023 Week 13: Michigan State vs. Penn State · L 0–42; defense 9.7 percentile2024 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Florida Atlantic · W 16–10; defense 93.4 percentile2024 Week 2: Michigan State at Maryland · W 27–24; defense 45.3 percentile2024 Week 3: Michigan State vs. Prairie View A&M · W 40–0; defense 59.2 percentile2024 Week 4: Michigan State at Boston College · L 19–23; defense 35.5 percentile2024 Week 5: Michigan State vs. Ohio State · L 7–38; defense 27.6 percentile2024 Week 6: Michigan State at Oregon · L 10–31; defense 27.1 percentile2024 Week 8: Michigan State vs. Iowa · W 32–20; defense 50.7 percentile2024 Week 9: Michigan State at Michigan · L 17–24; defense 37.1 percentile2024 Week 10: Michigan State vs. Indiana · L 10–47; defense 47.1 percentile2024 Week 12: Michigan State at Illinois · L 16–38; defense 38.2 percentile2024 Week 13: Michigan State vs. Purdue · W 24–17; defense 42.0 percentile2024 Week 14: Michigan State vs. Rutgers · L 14–41; defense 28.5 percentile2025 Week 2: Michigan State vs. Boston College · W 42–40; defense 41.3 percentile2025 Week 3: Michigan State vs. Youngstown State · W 41–24; defense 20.8 percentile2025 Week 4: Michigan State at USC · L 31–45; defense 10.1 percentile2025 Week 6: Michigan State at Nebraska · L 27–38; defense 78.7 percentile2025 Week 8: Michigan State at Indiana · L 13–38; defense 21.1 percentile2025 Week 9: Michigan State vs. Michigan · L 20–31; defense 43.9 percentile2025 Week 10: Michigan State at Minnesota · L 20–23; defense 56.6 percentile2025 Week 12: Michigan State vs. Penn State · L 10–28; defense 39.3 percentile2025 Week 13: Michigan State at Iowa · L 17–20; defense 88.4 percentile2025 Week 14: Michigan State vs. Maryland · W 38–28; defense 7.5 percentile2026 Week 1: Michigan State vs. Toledo · W 30–20; defense 63.2 percentile2026 Week 2: Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan · W 35–7; defense 52.3 percentile2014 defense season mean: 78.7 percentile2015 defense season mean: 65.6 percentile2016 defense season mean: 46.9 percentile2017 defense season mean: 74.4 percentile2018 defense season mean: 90.0 percentile2019 defense season mean: 73.3 percentile2020 defense season mean: 58.5 percentile2021 defense season mean: 53.1 percentile2022 defense season mean: 43.2 percentile2023 defense season mean: 42.1 percentile2024 defense season mean: 45.3 percentile2025 defense season mean: 38.9 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 42.6 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 57.8 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2020Mel Tucker
2023Harlon Barnett / Mel Tucker
2024Jonathan Smith
2026Pat Fitzgerald

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimatePat FitzgeraldCoaching change2
45.7 estimate78.8 games-only average
42.6 estimate57.8 games-only average
2025Jonathan Smith1036.938.9
2024Jonathan SmithCoaching change1231.345.3
2023Harlon Barnett / Mel TuckerCoaching change1220.742.1
2022Mel Tucker1246.643.2
2021Mel Tucker1355.553.1
2020Mel TuckerCoaching change721.058.5
2019Mark Dantonio1334.473.3
2018Mark Dantonio1322.390.0
2017Mark Dantonio1353.274.4
2016Mark Dantonio1254.646.9
2015Mark Dantonio1462.365.6
2014Mark Dantonio1379.678.7