2014–2026 performance history

Kent State over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

Mid-AmericanHead coach: Mark CarneyView Kent State games →
Offense · 2026 estimate24.6/100

19.3 average through 2 games

26.1 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate17.3/100

6.5 average through 2 games

21.1 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

Kent State individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.Haynes · ’14–’17Paul Haynes, 2014–2017Lewis · ’18–’22Sean Lewis, 2018–2022Burns · ’23–’24Kenni Burns, 2023–2024Carney · ’25–’26Mark Carney, 2025–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Kent State vs. Ohio · L 14–17; offense 9.7 percentile2014 Week 2: Kent State vs. South Alabama · L 13–23; offense 12.1 percentile2014 Week 3: Kent State at Ohio State · L 0–66; offense 5.7 percentile2014 Week 5: Kent State at Virginia · L 13–45; offense 26.0 percentile2014 Week 6: Kent State at Northern Illinois · L 14–17; offense 7.7 percentile2014 Week 7: Kent State vs. Massachusetts · L 17–40; offense 13.7 percentile2014 Week 8: Kent State vs. Army · W 39–17; offense 61.2 percentile2014 Week 9: Kent State at Miami (OH) · L 3–10; offense 0.9 percentile2014 Week 11: Kent State vs. Toledo · L 20–30; offense 32.5 percentile2014 Week 12: Kent State at Bowling Green · L 20–30; offense 12.8 percentile2014 Week 14: Kent State vs. Akron · W 27–24; offense 47.6 percentile2015 Week 1: Kent State at Illinois · L 3–52; offense 1.7 percentile2015 Week 2: Kent State vs. Delaware State · W 45–13; offense 15.7 percentile2015 Week 3: Kent State at Minnesota · L 7–10; offense 1.2 percentile2015 Week 4: Kent State vs. Marshall · L 29–36; offense 32.9 percentile2015 Week 5: Kent State vs. Miami (OH) · W 20–14; offense 5.0 percentile2015 Week 6: Kent State at Toledo · L 7–38; offense 16.3 percentile2015 Week 7: Kent State at Massachusetts · W 15–10; offense 6.7 percentile2015 Week 8: Kent State vs. Bowling Green · L 0–48; offense 0.3 percentile2015 Week 11: Kent State at Ohio · L 0–27; offense 2.7 percentile2015 Week 13: Kent State at Akron · L 0–20; offense 1.0 percentile2016 Week 1: Kent State at Penn State · L 13–33; offense 33.0 percentile2016 Week 3: Kent State vs. Monmouth · W 27–7; offense 11.8 percentile2016 Week 4: Kent State at Alabama · L 0–48; offense 7.9 percentile2016 Week 5: Kent State vs. Akron · L 27–31; offense 29.7 percentile2016 Week 6: Kent State at Buffalo · W 44–20; offense 80.2 percentile2016 Week 7: Kent State at Miami (OH) · L 14–18; offense 17.4 percentile2016 Week 8: Kent State vs. Ohio · L 10–14; offense 10.6 percentile2016 Week 9: Kent State at Central Michigan · W 27–24; offense 28.4 percentile2016 Week 11: Kent State vs. Western Michigan · L 21–37; offense 61.3 percentile2016 Week 12: Kent State at Bowling Green · L 7–42; offense 3.2 percentile2016 Week 13: Kent State vs. Northern Illinois · L 21–31; offense 9.5 percentile2017 Week 1: Kent State at Clemson · L 3–56; offense 9.5 percentile2017 Week 2: Kent State vs. Howard · W 38–31; offense 17.6 percentile2017 Week 3: Kent State at Marshall · L 0–21; offense 13.7 percentile2017 Week 4: Kent State at Louisville · L 3–42; offense 1.5 percentile2017 Week 5: Kent State vs. Buffalo · L 13–27; offense 32.8 percentile2017 Week 6: Kent State at Northern Illinois · L 3–24; offense 1.7 percentile2017 Week 7: Kent State vs. Miami (OH) · W 17–14; offense 26.7 percentile2017 Week 8: Kent State at Ohio · L 3–48; offense 10.0 percentile2017 Week 10: Kent State vs. Bowling Green · L 16–44; offense 4.5 percentile2017 Week 11: Kent State at Western Michigan · L 20–48; offense 18.4 percentile2017 Week 12: Kent State vs. Central Michigan · L 23–42; offense 48.2 percentile2017 Week 13: Kent State at Akron · L 14–24; offense 3.6 percentile2018 Week 1: Kent State at Illinois · L 24–31; offense 7.5 percentile2018 Week 2: Kent State vs. Howard · W 54–14; offense 37.6 percentile2018 Week 3: Kent State at Penn State · L 10–63; offense 22.5 percentile2018 Week 4: Kent State at Ole Miss · L 17–38; offense 13.6 percentile2018 Week 5: Kent State at Ball State · L 24–52; offense 21.4 percentile2018 Week 6: Kent State vs. Ohio · L 26–27; offense 56.0 percentile2018 Week 7: Kent State at Miami (OH) · L 6–31; offense 17.8 percentile2018 Week 8: Kent State vs. Akron · L 23–24; offense 14.6 percentile2018 Week 10: Kent State at Bowling Green · W 35–28; offense 17.9 percentile2018 Week 11: Kent State at Buffalo · L 14–48; offense 2.5 percentile2018 Week 12: Kent State vs. Toledo · L 34–56; offense 49.5 percentile2018 Week 13: Kent State vs. Eastern Michigan · L 20–28; offense 42.8 percentile2019 Week 1: Kent State at Arizona State · L 7–30; offense 5.9 percentile2019 Week 2: Kent State vs. Kennesaw State · W 26–23; offense 10.9 percentile2019 Week 3: Kent State at Auburn · L 16–55; offense 43.2 percentile2019 Week 4: Kent State vs. Bowling Green · W 62–20; offense 74.0 percentile2019 Week 6: Kent State at Wisconsin · L 0–48; offense 25.3 percentile2019 Week 7: Kent State at Akron · W 26–3; offense 66.1 percentile2019 Week 8: Kent State at Ohio · L 38–45; offense 93.1 percentile2019 Week 9: Kent State vs. Miami (OH) · L 16–23; offense 6.4 percentile2019 Week 11: Kent State at Toledo · L 33–35; offense 48.9 percentile2019 Week 12: Kent State vs. Buffalo · W 30–27; offense 56.4 percentile2019 Week 13: Kent State vs. Ball State · W 41–38; offense 81.1 percentile2019 Week 14: Kent State at Eastern Michigan · W 34–26; offense 66.5 percentile2019 Week 1: Kent State vs. Utah State · W 51–41; offense 70.0 percentile2020 Week 10: Kent State vs. Eastern Michigan · W 27–23; offense 32.2 percentile2020 Week 11: Kent State at Bowling Green · W 62–24; offense 77.4 percentile2020 Week 12: Kent State vs. Akron · W 69–35; offense 99.3 percentile2020 Week 13: Kent State at Buffalo · L 41–70; offense 95.2 percentile2021 Week 1: Kent State at Texas A&M · L 10–41; offense 71.7 percentile2021 Week 2: Kent State vs. VMI · W 60–10; offense 93.3 percentile2021 Week 3: Kent State at Iowa · L 7–30; offense 23.3 percentile2021 Week 4: Kent State at Maryland · L 16–37; offense 9.0 percentile2021 Week 5: Kent State vs. Bowling Green · W 27–20; offense 60.8 percentile2021 Week 6: Kent State vs. Buffalo · W 48–38; offense 95.0 percentile2021 Week 7: Kent State at Western Michigan · L 31–64; offense 21.6 percentile2021 Week 8: Kent State at Ohio · W 34–27; offense 63.7 percentile2021 Week 10: Kent State vs. Northern Illinois · W 52–47; offense 94.8 percentile2021 Week 11: Kent State at Central Michigan · L 30–54; offense 87.1 percentile2021 Week 14: Kent State vs. Northern Illinois · L 23–41; offense 15.7 percentile2021 Week 1: Kent State vs. Wyoming · L 38–52; offense 86.8 percentile2022 Week 1: Kent State at Washington · L 20–45; offense 42.6 percentile2022 Week 2: Kent State at Oklahoma · L 3–33; offense 7.0 percentile2022 Week 3: Kent State vs. Long Island University · W 63–10; offense 95.4 percentile2022 Week 4: Kent State at Georgia · L 22–39; offense 77.4 percentile2022 Week 7: Kent State at Toledo · L 31–52; offense 60.0 percentile2022 Week 8: Kent State vs. Akron · W 33–27; offense 73.8 percentile2022 Week 10: Kent State vs. Ball State · L 20–27; offense 31.8 percentile2022 Week 11: Kent State at Bowling Green · W 40–6; offense 71.7 percentile2022 Week 12: Kent State vs. Eastern Michigan · L 24–31; offense 42.9 percentile2023 Week 1: Kent State at UCF · L 6–56; offense 3.5 percentile2023 Week 2: Kent State at Arkansas · L 6–28; offense 6.9 percentile2023 Week 3: Kent State vs. Central Connecticut · W 38–10; offense 28.5 percentile2023 Week 5: Kent State vs. Miami (OH) · L 3–23; offense 5.6 percentile2023 Week 6: Kent State at Ohio · L 17–42; offense 32.2 percentile2023 Week 7: Kent State at Eastern Michigan · L 14–28; offense 11.3 percentile2023 Week 8: Kent State vs. Buffalo · L 6–24; offense 1.7 percentile2023 Week 11: Kent State vs. Bowling Green · L 19–49; offense 24.2 percentile2023 Week 12: Kent State at Ball State · L 3–34; offense 2.2 percentile2023 Week 13: Kent State vs. Northern Illinois · L 27–37; offense 70.0 percentile2024 Week 1: Kent State at Pittsburgh · L 24–55; offense 7.2 percentile2024 Week 2: Kent State vs. Saint Francis · L 17–23; offense 3.6 percentile2024 Week 3: Kent State at Tennessee · L 0–71; offense 41.7 percentile2024 Week 4: Kent State at Penn State · L 0–56; offense 1.7 percentile2024 Week 5: Kent State vs. Eastern Michigan · L 33–52; offense 27.5 percentile2024 Week 7: Kent State vs. Ball State · L 35–37; offense 36.5 percentile2024 Week 8: Kent State at Bowling Green · L 6–27; offense 20.4 percentile2024 Week 9: Kent State at Western Michigan · L 21–52; offense 1.4 percentile2024 Week 11: Kent State vs. Ohio · L 0–41; offense 10.0 percentile2024 Week 13: Kent State vs. Akron · L 17–38; offense 6.3 percentile2024 Week 14: Kent State at Buffalo · L 7–43; offense 4.6 percentile2025 Week 1: Kent State vs. Merrimack · W 21–17; offense 2.3 percentile2025 Week 2: Kent State at Texas Tech · L 14–62; offense 14.8 percentile2025 Week 3: Kent State vs. Buffalo · L 28–31; offense 50.7 percentile2025 Week 4: Kent State at Florida State · L 10–66; offense 1.9 percentile2025 Week 6: Kent State at Oklahoma · L 0–44; offense 1.5 percentile2025 Week 7: Kent State vs. Massachusetts · W 42–6; offense 22.9 percentile2025 Week 8: Kent State at Toledo · L 10–45; offense 50.3 percentile2025 Week 9: Kent State vs. Bowling Green · W 24–21; offense 54.5 percentile2025 Week 11: Kent State at Ball State · L 13–17; offense 5.1 percentile2025 Week 12: Kent State at Akron · W 42–35; offense 88.0 percentile2025 Week 13: Kent State vs. Central Michigan · L 16–28; offense 18.5 percentile2025 Week 14: Kent State at Northern Illinois · W 35–31; offense 94.1 percentile2026 Week 1: Kent State at South Carolina · L 0–57; offense 15.9 percentile2026 Week 2: Kent State vs. Wofford · W 36–15; offense 23.2 percentile2014 offense season mean: 16.0 percentile2015 offense season mean: 4.5 percentile2016 offense season mean: 22.4 percentile2017 offense season mean: 11.5 percentile2018 offense season mean: 21.9 percentile2019 offense season mean: 48.0 percentile2020 offense season mean: 86.6 percentile2021 offense season mean: 64.2 percentile2022 offense season mean: 57.0 percentile2023 offense season mean: 12.6 percentile2024 offense season mean: 10.1 percentile2025 offense season mean: 26.1 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 24.6 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 19.3 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Kent State vs. Ohio · L 14–17; defense 21.2 percentile2014 Week 2: Kent State vs. South Alabama · L 13–23; defense 57.1 percentile2014 Week 3: Kent State at Ohio State · L 0–66; defense 9.2 percentile2014 Week 5: Kent State at Virginia · L 13–45; defense 4.7 percentile2014 Week 6: Kent State at Northern Illinois · L 14–17; defense 61.1 percentile2014 Week 7: Kent State vs. Massachusetts · L 17–40; defense 18.3 percentile2014 Week 8: Kent State vs. Army · W 39–17; defense 59.9 percentile2014 Week 9: Kent State at Miami (OH) · L 3–10; defense 79.4 percentile2014 Week 11: Kent State vs. Toledo · L 20–30; defense 68.8 percentile2014 Week 12: Kent State at Bowling Green · L 20–30; defense 38.0 percentile2014 Week 14: Kent State vs. Akron · W 27–24; defense 21.4 percentile2015 Week 1: Kent State at Illinois · L 3–52; defense 20.1 percentile2015 Week 2: Kent State vs. Delaware State · W 45–13; defense 96.5 percentile2015 Week 3: Kent State at Minnesota · L 7–10; defense 82.2 percentile2015 Week 4: Kent State vs. Marshall · L 29–36; defense 91.6 percentile2015 Week 5: Kent State vs. Miami (OH) · W 20–14; defense 54.3 percentile2015 Week 6: Kent State at Toledo · L 7–38; defense 48.4 percentile2015 Week 7: Kent State at Massachusetts · W 15–10; defense 92.5 percentile2015 Week 8: Kent State vs. Bowling Green · L 0–48; defense 38.6 percentile2015 Week 11: Kent State at Ohio · L 0–27; defense 24.1 percentile2015 Week 13: Kent State at Akron · L 0–20; defense 17.9 percentile2016 Week 1: Kent State at Penn State · L 13–33; defense 63.0 percentile2016 Week 3: Kent State vs. Monmouth · W 27–7; defense 67.9 percentile2016 Week 4: Kent State at Alabama · L 0–48; defense 20.0 percentile2016 Week 5: Kent State vs. Akron · L 27–31; defense 22.2 percentile2016 Week 6: Kent State at Buffalo · W 44–20; defense 39.3 percentile2016 Week 7: Kent State at Miami (OH) · L 14–18; defense 94.3 percentile2016 Week 8: Kent State vs. Ohio · L 10–14; defense 61.2 percentile2016 Week 9: Kent State at Central Michigan · W 27–24; defense 58.2 percentile2016 Week 11: Kent State vs. Western Michigan · L 21–37; defense 39.8 percentile2016 Week 12: Kent State at Bowling Green · L 7–42; defense 8.9 percentile2016 Week 13: Kent State vs. Northern Illinois · L 21–31; defense 66.9 percentile2017 Week 1: Kent State at Clemson · L 3–56; defense 6.9 percentile2017 Week 2: Kent State vs. Howard · W 38–31; defense 26.3 percentile2017 Week 3: Kent State at Marshall · L 0–21; defense 65.0 percentile2017 Week 4: Kent State at Louisville · L 3–42; defense 28.1 percentile2017 Week 5: Kent State vs. Buffalo · L 13–27; defense 51.8 percentile2017 Week 6: Kent State at Northern Illinois · L 3–24; defense 86.2 percentile2017 Week 7: Kent State vs. Miami (OH) · W 17–14; defense 69.0 percentile2017 Week 8: Kent State at Ohio · L 3–48; defense 24.8 percentile2017 Week 10: Kent State vs. Bowling Green · L 16–44; defense 16.1 percentile2017 Week 11: Kent State at Western Michigan · L 20–48; defense 67.2 percentile2017 Week 12: Kent State vs. Central Michigan · L 23–42; defense 10.2 percentile2017 Week 13: Kent State at Akron · L 14–24; defense 80.3 percentile2018 Week 1: Kent State at Illinois · L 24–31; defense 36.3 percentile2018 Week 2: Kent State vs. Howard · W 54–14; defense 81.9 percentile2018 Week 3: Kent State at Penn State · L 10–63; defense 4.4 percentile2018 Week 4: Kent State at Ole Miss · L 17–38; defense 16.2 percentile2018 Week 5: Kent State at Ball State · L 24–52; defense 21.7 percentile2018 Week 6: Kent State vs. Ohio · L 26–27; defense 32.9 percentile2018 Week 7: Kent State at Miami (OH) · L 6–31; defense 14.0 percentile2018 Week 8: Kent State vs. Akron · L 23–24; defense 29.5 percentile2018 Week 10: Kent State at Bowling Green · W 35–28; defense 61.5 percentile2018 Week 11: Kent State at Buffalo · L 14–48; defense 19.0 percentile2018 Week 12: Kent State vs. Toledo · L 34–56; defense 9.7 percentile2018 Week 13: Kent State vs. Eastern Michigan · L 20–28; defense 54.9 percentile2019 Week 1: Kent State at Arizona State · L 7–30; defense 18.5 percentile2019 Week 2: Kent State vs. Kennesaw State · W 26–23; defense 5.5 percentile2019 Week 3: Kent State at Auburn · L 16–55; defense 1.5 percentile2019 Week 4: Kent State vs. Bowling Green · W 62–20; defense 45.2 percentile2019 Week 6: Kent State at Wisconsin · L 0–48; defense 3.0 percentile2019 Week 7: Kent State at Akron · W 26–3; defense 42.6 percentile2019 Week 8: Kent State at Ohio · L 38–45; defense 14.1 percentile2019 Week 9: Kent State vs. Miami (OH) · L 16–23; defense 44.9 percentile2019 Week 11: Kent State at Toledo · L 33–35; defense 23.7 percentile2019 Week 12: Kent State vs. Buffalo · W 30–27; defense 38.0 percentile2019 Week 13: Kent State vs. Ball State · W 41–38; defense 18.3 percentile2019 Week 14: Kent State at Eastern Michigan · W 34–26; defense 46.5 percentile2019 Week 1: Kent State vs. Utah State · W 51–41; defense 8.9 percentile2020 Week 10: Kent State vs. Eastern Michigan · W 27–23; defense 78.8 percentile2020 Week 11: Kent State at Bowling Green · W 62–24; defense 63.5 percentile2020 Week 12: Kent State vs. Akron · W 69–35; defense 12.3 percentile2020 Week 13: Kent State at Buffalo · L 41–70; defense 0.9 percentile2021 Week 1: Kent State at Texas A&M · L 10–41; defense 2.4 percentile2021 Week 2: Kent State vs. VMI · W 60–10; defense 33.7 percentile2021 Week 3: Kent State at Iowa · L 7–30; defense 20.4 percentile2021 Week 4: Kent State at Maryland · L 16–37; defense 25.2 percentile2021 Week 5: Kent State vs. Bowling Green · W 27–20; defense 35.8 percentile2021 Week 6: Kent State vs. Buffalo · W 48–38; defense 13.6 percentile2021 Week 7: Kent State at Western Michigan · L 31–64; defense 11.9 percentile2021 Week 8: Kent State at Ohio · W 34–27; defense 55.5 percentile2021 Week 10: Kent State vs. Northern Illinois · W 52–47; defense 15.6 percentile2021 Week 11: Kent State at Central Michigan · L 30–54; defense 8.1 percentile2021 Week 14: Kent State vs. Northern Illinois · L 23–41; defense 31.0 percentile2021 Week 1: Kent State vs. Wyoming · L 38–52; defense 1.8 percentile2022 Week 1: Kent State at Washington · L 20–45; defense 31.9 percentile2022 Week 2: Kent State at Oklahoma · L 3–33; defense 45.2 percentile2022 Week 3: Kent State vs. Long Island University · W 63–10; defense 29.8 percentile2022 Week 4: Kent State at Georgia · L 22–39; defense 43.8 percentile2022 Week 7: Kent State at Toledo · L 31–52; defense 12.0 percentile2022 Week 8: Kent State vs. Akron · W 33–27; defense 14.9 percentile2022 Week 10: Kent State vs. Ball State · L 20–27; defense 15.5 percentile2022 Week 11: Kent State at Bowling Green · W 40–6; defense 80.5 percentile2022 Week 12: Kent State vs. Eastern Michigan · L 24–31; defense 36.2 percentile2023 Week 1: Kent State at UCF · L 6–56; defense 1.1 percentile2023 Week 2: Kent State at Arkansas · L 6–28; defense 11.9 percentile2023 Week 3: Kent State vs. Central Connecticut · W 38–10; defense 49.7 percentile2023 Week 5: Kent State vs. Miami (OH) · L 3–23; defense 52.3 percentile2023 Week 6: Kent State at Ohio · L 17–42; defense 17.4 percentile2023 Week 7: Kent State at Eastern Michigan · L 14–28; defense 52.4 percentile2023 Week 8: Kent State vs. Buffalo · L 6–24; defense 25.9 percentile2023 Week 11: Kent State vs. Bowling Green · L 19–49; defense 6.7 percentile2023 Week 12: Kent State at Ball State · L 3–34; defense 9.8 percentile2023 Week 13: Kent State vs. Northern Illinois · L 27–37; defense 20.1 percentile2024 Week 1: Kent State at Pittsburgh · L 24–55; defense 1.2 percentile2024 Week 2: Kent State vs. Saint Francis · L 17–23; defense 3.4 percentile2024 Week 3: Kent State at Tennessee · L 0–71; defense 1.8 percentile2024 Week 4: Kent State at Penn State · L 0–56; defense 1.2 percentile2024 Week 5: Kent State vs. Eastern Michigan · L 33–52; defense 16.2 percentile2024 Week 7: Kent State vs. Ball State · L 35–37; defense 20.0 percentile2024 Week 8: Kent State at Bowling Green · L 6–27; defense 21.0 percentile2024 Week 9: Kent State at Western Michigan · L 21–52; defense 5.0 percentile2024 Week 11: Kent State vs. Ohio · L 0–41; defense 25.6 percentile2024 Week 13: Kent State vs. Akron · L 17–38; defense 1.6 percentile2024 Week 14: Kent State at Buffalo · L 7–43; defense 16.9 percentile2025 Week 1: Kent State vs. Merrimack · W 21–17; defense 21.3 percentile2025 Week 2: Kent State at Texas Tech · L 14–62; defense 18.5 percentile2025 Week 3: Kent State vs. Buffalo · L 28–31; defense 30.6 percentile2025 Week 4: Kent State at Florida State · L 10–66; defense 0.3 percentile2025 Week 6: Kent State at Oklahoma · L 0–44; defense 12.8 percentile2025 Week 7: Kent State vs. Massachusetts · W 42–6; defense 85.8 percentile2025 Week 8: Kent State at Toledo · L 10–45; defense 16.1 percentile2025 Week 9: Kent State vs. Bowling Green · W 24–21; defense 19.6 percentile2025 Week 11: Kent State at Ball State · L 13–17; defense 58.7 percentile2025 Week 12: Kent State at Akron · W 42–35; defense 7.7 percentile2025 Week 13: Kent State vs. Central Michigan · L 16–28; defense 28.9 percentile2025 Week 14: Kent State at Northern Illinois · W 35–31; defense 16.0 percentile2026 Week 1: Kent State at South Carolina · L 0–57; defense 0.5 percentile2026 Week 2: Kent State vs. Wofford · W 36–15; defense 33.6 percentile2014 defense season mean: 36.6 percentile2015 defense season mean: 61.3 percentile2016 defense season mean: 49.4 percentile2017 defense season mean: 42.3 percentile2018 defense season mean: 28.7 percentile2019 defense season mean: 19.0 percentile2020 defense season mean: 27.7 percentile2021 defense season mean: 17.1 percentile2022 defense season mean: 32.8 percentile2023 defense season mean: 19.6 percentile2024 defense season mean: 6.7 percentile2025 defense season mean: 21.1 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 17.3 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 6.5 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2018Sean Lewis
2023Kenni Burns
2025Mark Carney

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateMark Carney2
24.6 estimate19.3 games-only average
17.3 estimate6.5 games-only average
2025Mark CarneyCoaching change1226.121.1
2024Kenni Burns1110.16.7
2023Kenni BurnsCoaching change1012.619.6
2022Sean Lewis957.032.8
2021Sean Lewis1264.217.1
2020Sean Lewis486.627.7
2019Sean Lewis1348.019.0
2018Sean LewisCoaching change1221.928.7
2017Paul Haynes1211.542.3
2016Paul Haynes1122.449.4
2015Paul Haynes104.561.3
2014Paul Haynes1116.036.6