2014–2026 performance history

East Carolina over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

American AthleticHead coach: Blake HarrellView East Carolina games →
Offense · 2026 estimate52.1/100

21.8 average through 2 games

60.3 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate63.3/100

26.7 average through 2 games

71.9 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

East Carolina individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.McNeill · ’14–’15Ruffin McNeill, 2014–2015Montgomery · ’16–’18Scottie Montgomery, 2016–2018Houston · ’19–’24Mike Houston, 2019–2024Harrell · ’25–’26Blake Harrell, 2025–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: East Carolina vs. North Carolina Central · W 52–7; offense 72.4 percentile2014 Week 2: East Carolina at South Carolina · L 23–33; offense 73.3 percentile2014 Week 3: East Carolina at Virginia Tech · W 28–21; offense 63.2 percentile2014 Week 4: East Carolina vs. North Carolina · W 70–41; offense 82.5 percentile2014 Week 6: East Carolina vs. SMU · W 45–24; offense 89.9 percentile2014 Week 7: East Carolina at South Florida · W 28–17; offense 92.5 percentile2014 Week 9: East Carolina vs. UConn · W 31–21; offense 49.6 percentile2014 Week 10: East Carolina at Temple · L 10–20; offense 62.9 percentile2014 Week 12: East Carolina at Cincinnati · L 46–54; offense 78.8 percentile2014 Week 13: East Carolina vs. Tulane · W 34–6; offense 62.3 percentile2014 Week 14: East Carolina at Tulsa · W 49–32; offense 65.8 percentile2014 Week 15: East Carolina vs. UCF · L 30–32; offense 41.3 percentile2014 Week 1: East Carolina vs. Florida · L 20–28; offense 63.8 percentile2015 Week 1: East Carolina vs. Towson · W 28–20; offense 30.6 percentile2015 Week 2: East Carolina at Florida · L 24–31; offense 35.6 percentile2015 Week 3: East Carolina at Navy · L 21–45; offense 64.8 percentile2015 Week 4: East Carolina vs. Virginia Tech · W 35–28; offense 67.4 percentile2015 Week 5: East Carolina at SMU · W 49–23; offense 68.2 percentile2015 Week 6: East Carolina at BYU · L 38–45; offense 65.4 percentile2015 Week 7: East Carolina vs. Tulsa · W 30–17; offense 2.7 percentile2015 Week 8: East Carolina vs. Temple · L 14–24; offense 52.2 percentile2015 Week 9: East Carolina at UConn · L 13–31; offense 39.8 percentile2015 Week 10: East Carolina vs. South Florida · L 17–22; offense 5.4 percentile2015 Week 12: East Carolina at UCF · W 44–7; offense 64.3 percentile2015 Week 13: East Carolina vs. Cincinnati · L 16–19; offense 25.5 percentile2016 Week 1: East Carolina vs. Western Carolina · W 52–7; offense 90.1 percentile2016 Week 2: East Carolina vs. NC State · W 33–30; offense 67.0 percentile2016 Week 3: East Carolina at South Carolina · L 15–20; offense 42.6 percentile2016 Week 4: East Carolina at Virginia Tech · L 17–54; offense 35.5 percentile2016 Week 5: East Carolina vs. UCF · L 29–47; offense 34.0 percentile2016 Week 6: East Carolina at South Florida · L 22–38; offense 31.6 percentile2016 Week 8: East Carolina at Cincinnati · L 19–31; offense 68.4 percentile2016 Week 9: East Carolina vs. UConn · W 41–3; offense 64.1 percentile2016 Week 10: East Carolina at Tulsa · L 24–45; offense 43.2 percentile2016 Week 11: East Carolina vs. SMU · L 31–55; offense 73.0 percentile2016 Week 12: East Carolina vs. Navy · L 31–66; offense 71.5 percentile2016 Week 13: East Carolina at Temple · L 10–37; offense 24.1 percentile2017 Week 1: East Carolina vs. James Madison · L 14–34; offense 1.4 percentile2017 Week 2: East Carolina at West Virginia · L 20–56; offense 31.6 percentile2017 Week 3: East Carolina vs. Virginia Tech · L 17–64; offense 30.0 percentile2017 Week 4: East Carolina at UConn · W 41–38; offense 63.8 percentile2017 Week 5: East Carolina vs. South Florida · L 31–61; offense 60.2 percentile2017 Week 6: East Carolina vs. Temple · L 10–34; offense 9.3 percentile2017 Week 7: East Carolina at UCF · L 21–63; offense 35.7 percentile2017 Week 8: East Carolina vs. BYU · W 33–17; offense 65.6 percentile2017 Week 10: East Carolina at Houston · L 27–52; offense 47.5 percentile2017 Week 11: East Carolina vs. Tulane · L 24–31; offense 24.8 percentile2017 Week 12: East Carolina vs. Cincinnati · W 48–20; offense 73.4 percentile2017 Week 13: East Carolina at Memphis · L 13–70; offense 17.6 percentile2018 Week 1: East Carolina vs. North Carolina A&T · L 23–28; offense 3.0 percentile2018 Week 2: East Carolina vs. North Carolina · W 41–19; offense 60.0 percentile2018 Week 4: East Carolina at South Florida · L 13–20; offense 10.3 percentile2018 Week 5: East Carolina vs. Old Dominion · W 37–35; offense 57.4 percentile2018 Week 6: East Carolina at Temple · L 6–49; offense 1.5 percentile2018 Week 7: East Carolina vs. Houston · L 20–42; offense 1.9 percentile2018 Week 8: East Carolina vs. UCF · L 10–37; offense 19.3 percentile2018 Week 10: East Carolina vs. Memphis · L 41–59; offense 58.5 percentile2018 Week 11: East Carolina at Tulane · L 18–24; offense 21.3 percentile2018 Week 12: East Carolina vs. UConn · W 55–21; offense 59.6 percentile2018 Week 13: East Carolina at Cincinnati · L 6–56; offense 50.9 percentile2018 Week 14: East Carolina at NC State · L 3–58; offense 0.4 percentile2019 Week 1: East Carolina at NC State · L 6–34; offense 1.4 percentile2019 Week 2: East Carolina vs. Gardner-Webb · W 48–9; offense 71.2 percentile2019 Week 3: East Carolina at Navy · L 10–42; offense 4.9 percentile2019 Week 4: East Carolina vs. William & Mary · W 19–7; offense 13.2 percentile2019 Week 5: East Carolina at Old Dominion · W 24–21; offense 24.9 percentile2019 Week 6: East Carolina vs. Temple · L 17–27; offense 15.3 percentile2019 Week 8: East Carolina at UCF · L 28–41; offense 52.0 percentile2019 Week 9: East Carolina vs. South Florida · L 20–45; offense 5.2 percentile2019 Week 10: East Carolina vs. Cincinnati · L 43–46; offense 80.6 percentile2019 Week 11: East Carolina at SMU · L 51–59; offense 92.3 percentile2019 Week 13: East Carolina at UConn · W 31–24; offense 15.5 percentile2019 Week 14: East Carolina vs. Tulsa · L 24–49; offense 11.5 percentile2020 Week 4: East Carolina vs. UCF · L 28–51; offense 27.5 percentile2020 Week 5: East Carolina at Georgia State · L 29–49; offense 3.2 percentile2020 Week 7: East Carolina vs. Navy · L 23–27; offense 17.9 percentile2020 Week 9: East Carolina at Tulsa · L 30–34; offense 80.8 percentile2020 Week 10: East Carolina vs. Tulane · L 21–38; offense 11.3 percentile2020 Week 11: East Carolina at Cincinnati · L 17–55; offense 61.9 percentile2020 Week 12: East Carolina at Temple · W 28–3; offense 32.6 percentile2020 Week 13: East Carolina vs. SMU · W 52–38; offense 55.0 percentile2021 Week 1: East Carolina at App State · L 19–33; offense 61.4 percentile2021 Week 2: East Carolina vs. South Carolina · L 17–20; offense 7.0 percentile2021 Week 3: East Carolina at Marshall · W 42–38; offense 90.3 percentile2021 Week 4: East Carolina vs. Charleston Southern · W 31–28; offense 4.3 percentile2021 Week 5: East Carolina vs. Tulane · W 52–29; offense 75.5 percentile2021 Week 6: East Carolina at UCF · L 16–20; offense 38.1 percentile2021 Week 8: East Carolina at Houston · L 24–31; offense 24.0 percentile2021 Week 9: East Carolina vs. South Florida · W 29–14; offense 32.2 percentile2021 Week 10: East Carolina vs. Temple · W 45–3; offense 53.2 percentile2021 Week 12: East Carolina at Navy · W 38–35; offense 86.4 percentile2021 Week 13: East Carolina vs. Cincinnati · L 13–35; offense 22.3 percentile2022 Week 1: East Carolina vs. NC State · L 20–21; offense 47.6 percentile2022 Week 2: East Carolina vs. Old Dominion · W 39–21; offense 65.3 percentile2022 Week 3: East Carolina vs. Campbell · W 49–10; offense 67.4 percentile2022 Week 6: East Carolina at Tulane · L 9–24; offense 51.2 percentile2022 Week 7: East Carolina vs. Memphis · W 47–45; offense 81.6 percentile2022 Week 8: East Carolina vs. UCF · W 34–13; offense 82.5 percentile2022 Week 9: East Carolina at BYU · W 27–24; offense 51.6 percentile2022 Week 11: East Carolina at Cincinnati · L 25–27; offense 38.5 percentile2022 Week 12: East Carolina vs. Houston · L 3–42; offense 4.8 percentile2022 Week 13: East Carolina at Temple · W 49–46; offense 93.0 percentile2022 Week 1: East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina · W 53–29; offense 61.5 percentile2023 Week 1: East Carolina at Michigan · L 3–30; offense 48.5 percentile2023 Week 2: East Carolina vs. Marshall · L 13–31; offense 5.3 percentile2023 Week 3: East Carolina at App State · L 28–43; offense 33.5 percentile2023 Week 4: East Carolina vs. Gardner-Webb · W 44–0; offense 9.4 percentile2023 Week 5: East Carolina at Rice · L 17–24; offense 21.3 percentile2023 Week 7: East Carolina vs. SMU · L 10–31; offense 6.7 percentile2023 Week 8: East Carolina vs. Charlotte · L 7–10; offense 0.3 percentile2023 Week 9: East Carolina at UTSA · L 27–41; offense 48.7 percentile2023 Week 10: East Carolina vs. Tulane · L 10–13; offense 22.9 percentile2023 Week 11: East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · W 22–7; offense 16.9 percentile2023 Week 12: East Carolina at Navy · L 0–10; offense 0.4 percentile2023 Week 13: East Carolina vs. Tulsa · L 27–29; offense 35.8 percentile2024 Week 1: East Carolina vs. Norfolk State · W 42–3; offense 20.1 percentile2024 Week 2: East Carolina at Old Dominion · W 20–14; offense 24.7 percentile2024 Week 3: East Carolina vs. App State · L 19–21; offense 16.2 percentile2024 Week 4: East Carolina at Liberty · L 24–35; offense 74.5 percentile2024 Week 5: East Carolina vs. UTSA · W 30–20; offense 17.1 percentile2024 Week 8: East Carolina at Army · L 28–45; offense 52.0 percentile2024 Week 9: East Carolina vs. Temple · W 56–34; offense 96.0 percentile2024 Week 11: East Carolina vs. Florida Atlantic · W 49–14; offense 99.8 percentile2024 Week 12: East Carolina at Tulsa · W 38–31; offense 35.5 percentile2024 Week 13: East Carolina at North Texas · W 40–28; offense 78.0 percentile2024 Week 1: East Carolina vs. NC State · W 26–21; offense 82.9 percentile2025 Week 1: East Carolina at NC State · L 17–24; offense 10.5 percentile2025 Week 2: East Carolina vs. Campbell · W 56–3; offense 66.9 percentile2025 Week 3: East Carolina at Coastal Carolina · W 38–0; offense 57.3 percentile2025 Week 4: East Carolina vs. BYU · L 13–34; offense 23.6 percentile2025 Week 5: East Carolina vs. Army · W 28–6; offense 44.4 percentile2025 Week 7: East Carolina at Tulane · L 19–26; offense 50.9 percentile2025 Week 8: East Carolina vs. Tulsa · W 41–27; offense 72.0 percentile2025 Week 10: East Carolina at Temple · W 45–14; offense 98.1 percentile2025 Week 11: East Carolina vs. Charlotte · W 48–22; offense 53.8 percentile2025 Week 12: East Carolina vs. Memphis · W 31–27; offense 75.4 percentile2025 Week 13: East Carolina at UTSA · L 24–58; offense 44.0 percentile2025 Week 14: East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · W 42–3; offense 95.1 percentile2025 Week 1: East Carolina vs. Pittsburgh · W 23–17; offense 47.1 percentile2026 Week 1: East Carolina at Alabama · L 10–48; offense 10.9 percentile2026 Week 2: East Carolina vs. App State · L 24–27; offense 37.3 percentile2014 offense season mean: 70.9 percentile2015 offense season mean: 39.5 percentile2016 offense season mean: 54.7 percentile2017 offense season mean: 34.0 percentile2018 offense season mean: 18.4 percentile2019 offense season mean: 26.3 percentile2020 offense season mean: 32.0 percentile2021 offense season mean: 42.9 percentile2022 offense season mean: 59.0 percentile2023 offense season mean: 13.6 percentile2024 offense season mean: 61.6 percentile2025 offense season mean: 60.3 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 52.1 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 21.8 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: East Carolina vs. North Carolina Central · W 52–7; defense 72.7 percentile2014 Week 2: East Carolina at South Carolina · L 23–33; defense 23.1 percentile2014 Week 3: East Carolina at Virginia Tech · W 28–21; defense 54.1 percentile2014 Week 4: East Carolina vs. North Carolina · W 70–41; defense 42.8 percentile2014 Week 6: East Carolina vs. SMU · W 45–24; defense 46.2 percentile2014 Week 7: East Carolina at South Florida · W 28–17; defense 39.6 percentile2014 Week 9: East Carolina vs. UConn · W 31–21; defense 25.3 percentile2014 Week 10: East Carolina at Temple · L 10–20; defense 82.3 percentile2014 Week 12: East Carolina at Cincinnati · L 46–54; defense 37.1 percentile2014 Week 13: East Carolina vs. Tulane · W 34–6; defense 83.1 percentile2014 Week 14: East Carolina at Tulsa · W 49–32; defense 55.7 percentile2014 Week 15: East Carolina vs. UCF · L 30–32; defense 67.5 percentile2014 Week 1: East Carolina vs. Florida · L 20–28; defense 75.1 percentile2015 Week 1: East Carolina vs. Towson · W 28–20; defense 12.3 percentile2015 Week 2: East Carolina at Florida · L 24–31; defense 36.0 percentile2015 Week 3: East Carolina at Navy · L 21–45; defense 19.3 percentile2015 Week 4: East Carolina vs. Virginia Tech · W 35–28; defense 29.2 percentile2015 Week 5: East Carolina at SMU · W 49–23; defense 67.4 percentile2015 Week 6: East Carolina at BYU · L 38–45; defense 13.6 percentile2015 Week 7: East Carolina vs. Tulsa · W 30–17; defense 65.6 percentile2015 Week 8: East Carolina vs. Temple · L 14–24; defense 69.6 percentile2015 Week 9: East Carolina at UConn · L 13–31; defense 5.3 percentile2015 Week 10: East Carolina vs. South Florida · L 17–22; defense 80.6 percentile2015 Week 12: East Carolina at UCF · W 44–7; defense 71.2 percentile2015 Week 13: East Carolina vs. Cincinnati · L 16–19; defense 56.7 percentile2016 Week 1: East Carolina vs. Western Carolina · W 52–7; defense 42.0 percentile2016 Week 2: East Carolina vs. NC State · W 33–30; defense 13.9 percentile2016 Week 3: East Carolina at South Carolina · L 15–20; defense 50.2 percentile2016 Week 4: East Carolina at Virginia Tech · L 17–54; defense 50.0 percentile2016 Week 5: East Carolina vs. UCF · L 29–47; defense 41.5 percentile2016 Week 6: East Carolina at South Florida · L 22–38; defense 21.4 percentile2016 Week 8: East Carolina at Cincinnati · L 19–31; defense 22.1 percentile2016 Week 9: East Carolina vs. UConn · W 41–3; defense 73.8 percentile2016 Week 10: East Carolina at Tulsa · L 24–45; defense 36.8 percentile2016 Week 11: East Carolina vs. SMU · L 31–55; defense 7.4 percentile2016 Week 12: East Carolina vs. Navy · L 31–66; defense 0.4 percentile2016 Week 13: East Carolina at Temple · L 10–37; defense 9.5 percentile2017 Week 1: East Carolina vs. James Madison · L 14–34; defense 1.0 percentile2017 Week 2: East Carolina at West Virginia · L 20–56; defense 15.4 percentile2017 Week 3: East Carolina vs. Virginia Tech · L 17–64; defense 3.9 percentile2017 Week 4: East Carolina at UConn · W 41–38; defense 32.5 percentile2017 Week 5: East Carolina vs. South Florida · L 31–61; defense 1.2 percentile2017 Week 6: East Carolina vs. Temple · L 10–34; defense 3.0 percentile2017 Week 7: East Carolina at UCF · L 21–63; defense 14.1 percentile2017 Week 8: East Carolina vs. BYU · W 33–17; defense 42.4 percentile2017 Week 10: East Carolina at Houston · L 27–52; defense 2.8 percentile2017 Week 11: East Carolina vs. Tulane · L 24–31; defense 30.5 percentile2017 Week 12: East Carolina vs. Cincinnati · W 48–20; defense 30.1 percentile2017 Week 13: East Carolina at Memphis · L 13–70; defense 0.3 percentile2018 Week 1: East Carolina vs. North Carolina A&T · L 23–28; defense 49.6 percentile2018 Week 2: East Carolina vs. North Carolina · W 41–19; defense 68.1 percentile2018 Week 4: East Carolina at South Florida · L 13–20; defense 80.9 percentile2018 Week 5: East Carolina vs. Old Dominion · W 37–35; defense 78.0 percentile2018 Week 6: East Carolina at Temple · L 6–49; defense 35.0 percentile2018 Week 7: East Carolina vs. Houston · L 20–42; defense 72.2 percentile2018 Week 8: East Carolina vs. UCF · L 10–37; defense 81.8 percentile2018 Week 10: East Carolina vs. Memphis · L 41–59; defense 25.8 percentile2018 Week 11: East Carolina at Tulane · L 18–24; defense 67.2 percentile2018 Week 12: East Carolina vs. UConn · W 55–21; defense 60.2 percentile2018 Week 13: East Carolina at Cincinnati · L 6–56; defense 7.0 percentile2018 Week 14: East Carolina at NC State · L 3–58; defense 6.0 percentile2019 Week 1: East Carolina at NC State · L 6–34; defense 24.6 percentile2019 Week 2: East Carolina vs. Gardner-Webb · W 48–9; defense 51.2 percentile2019 Week 3: East Carolina at Navy · L 10–42; defense 31.3 percentile2019 Week 4: East Carolina vs. William & Mary · W 19–7; defense 37.4 percentile2019 Week 5: East Carolina at Old Dominion · W 24–21; defense 72.9 percentile2019 Week 6: East Carolina vs. Temple · L 17–27; defense 12.0 percentile2019 Week 8: East Carolina at UCF · L 28–41; defense 53.2 percentile2019 Week 9: East Carolina vs. South Florida · L 20–45; defense 0.5 percentile2019 Week 10: East Carolina vs. Cincinnati · L 43–46; defense 5.2 percentile2019 Week 11: East Carolina at SMU · L 51–59; defense 10.5 percentile2019 Week 13: East Carolina at UConn · W 31–24; defense 30.1 percentile2019 Week 14: East Carolina vs. Tulsa · L 24–49; defense 0.5 percentile2020 Week 4: East Carolina vs. UCF · L 28–51; defense 26.3 percentile2020 Week 5: East Carolina at Georgia State · L 29–49; defense 34.2 percentile2020 Week 7: East Carolina vs. Navy · L 23–27; defense 18.5 percentile2020 Week 9: East Carolina at Tulsa · L 30–34; defense 30.9 percentile2020 Week 10: East Carolina vs. Tulane · L 21–38; defense 15.8 percentile2020 Week 11: East Carolina at Cincinnati · L 17–55; defense 8.6 percentile2020 Week 12: East Carolina at Temple · W 28–3; defense 98.0 percentile2020 Week 13: East Carolina vs. SMU · W 52–38; defense 79.6 percentile2021 Week 1: East Carolina at App State · L 19–33; defense 22.9 percentile2021 Week 2: East Carolina vs. South Carolina · L 17–20; defense 90.6 percentile2021 Week 3: East Carolina at Marshall · W 42–38; defense 26.6 percentile2021 Week 4: East Carolina vs. Charleston Southern · W 31–28; defense 13.6 percentile2021 Week 5: East Carolina vs. Tulane · W 52–29; defense 41.2 percentile2021 Week 6: East Carolina at UCF · L 16–20; defense 73.1 percentile2021 Week 8: East Carolina at Houston · L 24–31; defense 98.2 percentile2021 Week 9: East Carolina vs. South Florida · W 29–14; defense 37.4 percentile2021 Week 10: East Carolina vs. Temple · W 45–3; defense 96.0 percentile2021 Week 12: East Carolina at Navy · W 38–35; defense 0.6 percentile2021 Week 13: East Carolina vs. Cincinnati · L 13–35; defense 77.0 percentile2022 Week 1: East Carolina vs. NC State · L 20–21; defense 54.7 percentile2022 Week 2: East Carolina vs. Old Dominion · W 39–21; defense 80.1 percentile2022 Week 3: East Carolina vs. Campbell · W 49–10; defense 27.1 percentile2022 Week 6: East Carolina at Tulane · L 9–24; defense 76.9 percentile2022 Week 7: East Carolina vs. Memphis · W 47–45; defense 26.1 percentile2022 Week 8: East Carolina vs. UCF · W 34–13; defense 63.6 percentile2022 Week 9: East Carolina at BYU · W 27–24; defense 58.1 percentile2022 Week 11: East Carolina at Cincinnati · L 25–27; defense 62.5 percentile2022 Week 12: East Carolina vs. Houston · L 3–42; defense 22.6 percentile2022 Week 13: East Carolina at Temple · W 49–46; defense 10.6 percentile2022 Week 1: East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina · W 53–29; defense 63.6 percentile2023 Week 1: East Carolina at Michigan · L 3–30; defense 24.0 percentile2023 Week 2: East Carolina vs. Marshall · L 13–31; defense 48.0 percentile2023 Week 3: East Carolina at App State · L 28–43; defense 28.6 percentile2023 Week 4: East Carolina vs. Gardner-Webb · W 44–0; defense 93.4 percentile2023 Week 5: East Carolina at Rice · L 17–24; defense 41.7 percentile2023 Week 7: East Carolina vs. SMU · L 10–31; defense 94.3 percentile2023 Week 8: East Carolina vs. Charlotte · L 7–10; defense 44.0 percentile2023 Week 9: East Carolina at UTSA · L 27–41; defense 22.9 percentile2023 Week 10: East Carolina vs. Tulane · L 10–13; defense 67.6 percentile2023 Week 11: East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · W 22–7; defense 93.6 percentile2023 Week 12: East Carolina at Navy · L 0–10; defense 80.8 percentile2023 Week 13: East Carolina vs. Tulsa · L 27–29; defense 47.7 percentile2024 Week 1: East Carolina vs. Norfolk State · W 42–3; defense 91.6 percentile2024 Week 2: East Carolina at Old Dominion · W 20–14; defense 95.9 percentile2024 Week 3: East Carolina vs. App State · L 19–21; defense 67.0 percentile2024 Week 4: East Carolina at Liberty · L 24–35; defense 40.4 percentile2024 Week 5: East Carolina vs. UTSA · W 30–20; defense 81.2 percentile2024 Week 8: East Carolina at Army · L 28–45; defense 19.7 percentile2024 Week 9: East Carolina vs. Temple · W 56–34; defense 13.1 percentile2024 Week 11: East Carolina vs. Florida Atlantic · W 49–14; defense 68.1 percentile2024 Week 12: East Carolina at Tulsa · W 38–31; defense 59.1 percentile2024 Week 13: East Carolina at North Texas · W 40–28; defense 70.9 percentile2024 Week 1: East Carolina vs. NC State · W 26–21; defense 41.2 percentile2025 Week 1: East Carolina at NC State · L 17–24; defense 63.6 percentile2025 Week 2: East Carolina vs. Campbell · W 56–3; defense 87.5 percentile2025 Week 3: East Carolina at Coastal Carolina · W 38–0; defense 95.4 percentile2025 Week 4: East Carolina vs. BYU · L 13–34; defense 40.9 percentile2025 Week 5: East Carolina vs. Army · W 28–6; defense 96.4 percentile2025 Week 7: East Carolina at Tulane · L 19–26; defense 60.2 percentile2025 Week 8: East Carolina vs. Tulsa · W 41–27; defense 78.8 percentile2025 Week 10: East Carolina at Temple · W 45–14; defense 87.0 percentile2025 Week 11: East Carolina vs. Charlotte · W 48–22; defense 32.6 percentile2025 Week 12: East Carolina vs. Memphis · W 31–27; defense 50.9 percentile2025 Week 13: East Carolina at UTSA · L 24–58; defense 30.0 percentile2025 Week 14: East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · W 42–3; defense 81.4 percentile2025 Week 1: East Carolina vs. Pittsburgh · W 23–17; defense 74.1 percentile2026 Week 1: East Carolina at Alabama · L 10–48; defense 10.5 percentile2026 Week 2: East Carolina vs. App State · L 24–27; defense 50.5 percentile2014 defense season mean: 54.9 percentile2015 defense season mean: 41.1 percentile2016 defense season mean: 24.8 percentile2017 defense season mean: 8.3 percentile2018 defense season mean: 50.8 percentile2019 defense season mean: 19.1 percentile2020 defense season mean: 40.5 percentile2021 defense season mean: 53.6 percentile2022 defense season mean: 48.8 percentile2023 defense season mean: 61.3 percentile2024 defense season mean: 61.6 percentile2025 defense season mean: 71.9 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 63.3 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 26.7 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2016Scottie Montgomery
2018Scottie Montgomery / David Blackwell
2019Mike Houston
2024Mike Houston / Blake Harrell
2025Blake Harrell

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateBlake Harrell2
52.1 estimate21.8 games-only average
63.3 estimate26.7 games-only average
2025Blake HarrellCoaching change1360.371.9
2024Mike Houston / Blake HarrellCoaching change1161.661.6
2023Mike Houston1213.661.3
2022Mike Houston1159.048.8
2021Mike Houston1142.953.6
2020Mike Houston832.040.5
2019Mike HoustonCoaching change1226.319.1
2018Scottie Montgomery / David BlackwellCoaching change1218.450.8
2017Scottie Montgomery1234.08.3
2016Scottie MontgomeryCoaching change1254.724.8
2015Ruffin McNeill1239.541.1
2014Ruffin McNeill1370.954.9