2014–2026 performance history

North Dakota State over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

Mountain WestHead coach: Tim PolasekView North Dakota State games →
Offense · 2026 estimate50.0/100

50.3 average through 2 games

50.0 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate54.4/100

71.0 average through 2 games

50.0 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

North Dakota State individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.PolasekTim Polasek, 2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512026 Week 1: North Dakota State vs. Jacksonville State · W 33–7; offense 65.5 percentile2026 Week 1: North Dakota State vs. Fordham · W 38–0; offense 35.0 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 50.0 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 50.3 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512026 Week 1: North Dakota State vs. Jacksonville State · W 33–7; defense 90.0 percentile2026 Week 1: North Dakota State vs. Fordham · W 38–0; defense 43.2 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 54.4 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 71.0 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

No 2025 FBS baseline: North Dakota State uses 50, the national midpoint, as its 8-game prior.

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateTim Polasek2
50.0 estimate50.3 games-only average
54.4 estimate71.0 games-only average