2014–2026 performance history

Missouri State over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

Conference USAHead coach: Casey WoodsView Missouri State games →
Offense · 2026 estimate44.7/100

3.6 average through 1 game

53.0 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate28.8/100

20.0 average through 1 game

30.0 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

Missouri State individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.BeardRyan Beard, 2025WoodsCasey Woods, 2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512025 Week 1: Missouri State at USC · L 13–73; offense 15.5 percentile2025 Week 2: Missouri State at Marshall · W 21–20; offense 52.4 percentile2025 Week 3: Missouri State vs. SMU · L 10–28; offense 10.4 percentile2025 Week 4: Missouri State vs. UT Martin · W 42–10; offense 58.8 percentile2025 Week 5: Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky · L 22–27; offense 25.1 percentile2025 Week 9: Missouri State at New Mexico State · W 24–17; offense 43.8 percentile2025 Week 10: Missouri State vs. Florida International · W 28–21; offense 46.8 percentile2025 Week 11: Missouri State at Liberty · W 21–17; offense 28.6 percentile2025 Week 12: Missouri State vs. UTEP · W 38–24; offense 92.3 percentile2025 Week 13: Missouri State at Kennesaw State · L 34–41; offense 82.6 percentile2025 Week 14: Missouri State vs. Louisiana Tech · L 30–42; offense 93.7 percentile2025 Week 1: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State · L 28–34; offense 68.0 percentile2026 Week 1: Missouri State at Texas A&M · L 0–50; offense 3.6 percentile2025 offense season mean: 53.0 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 44.7 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 3.6 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512025 Week 1: Missouri State at USC · L 13–73; defense 1.9 percentile2025 Week 2: Missouri State at Marshall · W 21–20; defense 80.4 percentile2025 Week 3: Missouri State vs. SMU · L 10–28; defense 23.9 percentile2025 Week 4: Missouri State vs. UT Martin · W 42–10; defense 50.2 percentile2025 Week 5: Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky · L 22–27; defense 28.7 percentile2025 Week 9: Missouri State at New Mexico State · W 24–17; defense 41.3 percentile2025 Week 10: Missouri State vs. Florida International · W 28–21; defense 55.5 percentile2025 Week 11: Missouri State at Liberty · W 21–17; defense 65.3 percentile2025 Week 12: Missouri State vs. UTEP · W 38–24; defense 27.1 percentile2025 Week 13: Missouri State at Kennesaw State · L 34–41; defense 19.6 percentile2025 Week 14: Missouri State vs. Louisiana Tech · L 30–42; defense 1.4 percentile2025 Week 1: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State · L 28–34; defense 32.2 percentile2026 Week 1: Missouri State at Texas A&M · L 0–50; defense 20.0 percentile2025 defense season mean: 30.0 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 28.8 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 20.0 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2025Ryan Beard / Nick Petrino
2026Casey Woods

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateCasey WoodsCoaching change1
44.7 estimate3.6 games-only average
28.8 estimate20.0 games-only average
2025Ryan Beard / Nick PetrinoCoaching change1253.030.0