2014–2026 performance history

Toledo over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

Mid-AmericanHead coach: Mike JacobsView Toledo games →
Offense · 2026 estimate55.9/100

49.2 average through 2 games

57.5 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate73.3/100

57.3 average through 2 games

76.8 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

Toledo individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.Campbell · ’14–’15Matt Campbell, 2014–2015Candle · ’16–’25Jason Candle, 2016–2025JacobsMike Jacobs, 2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Toledo vs. New Hampshire · W 54–20; offense 91.3 percentile2014 Week 2: Toledo vs. Missouri · L 24–49; offense 41.5 percentile2014 Week 3: Toledo at Cincinnati · L 34–58; offense 89.6 percentile2014 Week 4: Toledo vs. Ball State · W 34–23; offense 90.6 percentile2014 Week 5: Toledo vs. Central Michigan · W 42–28; offense 96.9 percentile2014 Week 7: Toledo at Iowa State · L 30–37; offense 55.1 percentile2014 Week 9: Toledo vs. Massachusetts · W 42–35; offense 91.0 percentile2014 Week 11: Toledo at Kent State · W 30–20; offense 51.8 percentile2014 Week 12: Toledo at Northern Illinois · L 24–27; offense 55.6 percentile2014 Week 13: Toledo vs. Bowling Green · W 27–20; offense 41.0 percentile2014 Week 14: Toledo at Eastern Michigan · W 52–16; offense 85.7 percentile2014 Week 1: Toledo vs. Arkansas State · W 63–44; offense 95.6 percentile2015 Week 2: Toledo at Arkansas · W 16–12; offense 22.5 percentile2015 Week 3: Toledo vs. Iowa State · W 30–23; offense 15.5 percentile2015 Week 4: Toledo vs. Arkansas State · W 37–7; offense 40.7 percentile2015 Week 5: Toledo at Ball State · W 24–10; offense 62.8 percentile2015 Week 6: Toledo vs. Kent State · W 38–7; offense 62.5 percentile2015 Week 7: Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan · W 63–20; offense 83.1 percentile2015 Week 8: Toledo at Massachusetts · W 51–35; offense 87.1 percentile2015 Week 10: Toledo vs. Northern Illinois · L 27–32; offense 53.7 percentile2015 Week 11: Toledo at Central Michigan · W 28–23; offense 67.5 percentile2015 Week 12: Toledo at Bowling Green · W 44–28; offense 57.2 percentile2015 Week 1: Toledo vs. Temple · W 32–17; offense 84.0 percentile2016 Week 1: Toledo at Arkansas State · W 31–10; offense 93.2 percentile2016 Week 2: Toledo vs. Maine · W 45–3; offense 76.9 percentile2016 Week 3: Toledo vs. Fresno State · W 52–17; offense 90.5 percentile2016 Week 5: Toledo at BYU · L 53–55; offense 97.4 percentile2016 Week 6: Toledo at Eastern Michigan · W 35–20; offense 73.9 percentile2016 Week 8: Toledo vs. Central Michigan · W 31–17; offense 50.2 percentile2016 Week 9: Toledo vs. Ohio · L 26–31; offense 81.3 percentile2016 Week 10: Toledo at Akron · W 48–17; offense 98.0 percentile2016 Week 11: Toledo vs. Northern Illinois · W 31–24; offense 45.7 percentile2016 Week 12: Toledo vs. Ball State · W 37–19; offense 69.9 percentile2016 Week 13: Toledo at Western Michigan · L 35–55; offense 78.6 percentile2016 Week 1: Toledo vs. App State · L 28–31; offense 79.0 percentile2017 Week 1: Toledo vs. Elon · W 47–13; offense 66.6 percentile2017 Week 2: Toledo at Nevada · W 37–24; offense 28.7 percentile2017 Week 3: Toledo vs. Tulsa · W 54–51; offense 89.1 percentile2017 Week 6: Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan · W 20–15; offense 30.7 percentile2017 Week 7: Toledo at Central Michigan · W 30–10; offense 73.3 percentile2017 Week 8: Toledo vs. Akron · W 48–21; offense 99.3 percentile2017 Week 9: Toledo at Ball State · W 58–17; offense 69.8 percentile2017 Week 10: Toledo vs. Northern Illinois · W 27–17; offense 82.1 percentile2017 Week 11: Toledo at Ohio · L 10–38; offense 33.8 percentile2017 Week 12: Toledo at Bowling Green · W 66–37; offense 91.5 percentile2017 Week 13: Toledo vs. Western Michigan · W 37–10; offense 81.1 percentile2017 Week 14: Toledo vs. Akron · W 45–28; offense 72.1 percentile2017 Week 1: Toledo vs. App State · L 0–34; offense 1.8 percentile2018 Week 1: Toledo vs. VMI · W 66–3; offense 33.3 percentile2018 Week 3: Toledo vs. Miami · L 24–49; offense 47.7 percentile2018 Week 4: Toledo vs. Nevada · W 63–44; offense 85.1 percentile2018 Week 5: Toledo at Fresno State · L 27–49; offense 62.9 percentile2018 Week 6: Toledo vs. Bowling Green · W 52–36; offense 80.2 percentile2018 Week 7: Toledo at Eastern Michigan · L 26–28; offense 65.3 percentile2018 Week 8: Toledo vs. Buffalo · L 17–31; offense 30.9 percentile2018 Week 9: Toledo at Western Michigan · W 51–24; offense 89.2 percentile2018 Week 10: Toledo vs. Ball State · W 45–13; offense 78.6 percentile2018 Week 11: Toledo at Northern Illinois · L 15–38; offense 45.9 percentile2018 Week 12: Toledo at Kent State · W 56–34; offense 86.9 percentile2018 Week 13: Toledo vs. Central Michigan · W 51–13; offense 79.0 percentile2018 Week 1: Toledo vs. Florida International · L 32–35; offense 47.0 percentile2019 Week 1: Toledo at Kentucky · L 24–38; offense 58.4 percentile2019 Week 3: Toledo vs. Murray State · W 45–0; offense 46.9 percentile2019 Week 4: Toledo at Colorado State · W 41–35; offense 88.1 percentile2019 Week 5: Toledo vs. BYU · W 28–21; offense 49.8 percentile2019 Week 6: Toledo vs. Western Michigan · W 31–24; offense 56.7 percentile2019 Week 7: Toledo at Bowling Green · L 7–20; offense 9.6 percentile2019 Week 8: Toledo at Ball State · L 14–52; offense 1.8 percentile2019 Week 9: Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan · W 37–34; offense 75.9 percentile2019 Week 11: Toledo vs. Kent State · W 35–33; offense 55.3 percentile2019 Week 12: Toledo vs. Northern Illinois · L 28–31; offense 53.1 percentile2019 Week 13: Toledo at Buffalo · L 30–49; offense 79.1 percentile2019 Week 14: Toledo at Central Michigan · L 7–49; offense 9.0 percentile2020 Week 10: Toledo vs. Bowling Green · W 38–3; offense 36.9 percentile2020 Week 11: Toledo at Western Michigan · L 38–41; offense 72.5 percentile2020 Week 12: Toledo at Eastern Michigan · W 45–28; offense 75.4 percentile2020 Week 13: Toledo vs. Ball State · L 24–27; offense 34.6 percentile2020 Week 14: Toledo at Northern Illinois · W 41–24; offense 88.0 percentile2020 Week 15: Toledo vs. Central Michigan · W 24–23; offense 27.1 percentile2021 Week 1: Toledo vs. Norfolk State · W 49–10; offense 77.9 percentile2021 Week 2: Toledo at Notre Dame · L 29–32; offense 38.9 percentile2021 Week 3: Toledo vs. Colorado State · L 6–22; offense 6.8 percentile2021 Week 4: Toledo at Ball State · W 22–12; offense 63.8 percentile2021 Week 5: Toledo at Massachusetts · W 45–7; offense 27.2 percentile2021 Week 6: Toledo vs. Northern Illinois · L 20–22; offense 21.0 percentile2021 Week 8: Toledo vs. Western Michigan · W 34–15; offense 46.2 percentile2021 Week 10: Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan · L 49–52; offense 82.8 percentile2021 Week 11: Toledo at Bowling Green · W 49–17; offense 97.5 percentile2021 Week 12: Toledo at Ohio · W 35–23; offense 90.1 percentile2021 Week 13: Toledo vs. Akron · W 49–14; offense 81.4 percentile2021 Week 1: Toledo vs. Middle Tennessee · L 24–31; offense 47.1 percentile2022 Week 1: Toledo vs. Long Island University · W 37–0; offense 8.7 percentile2022 Week 2: Toledo vs. Massachusetts · W 55–10; offense 87.9 percentile2022 Week 3: Toledo at Ohio State · L 21–77; offense 78.7 percentile2022 Week 4: Toledo at San Diego State · L 14–17; offense 44.1 percentile2022 Week 5: Toledo vs. Central Michigan · W 38–17; offense 46.9 percentile2022 Week 6: Toledo at Northern Illinois · W 52–32; offense 80.6 percentile2022 Week 7: Toledo vs. Kent State · W 52–31; offense 79.9 percentile2022 Week 9: Toledo at Eastern Michigan · W 27–24; offense 68.7 percentile2022 Week 11: Toledo vs. Ball State · W 28–21; offense 31.5 percentile2022 Week 12: Toledo vs. Bowling Green · L 35–42; offense 21.4 percentile2022 Week 13: Toledo at Western Michigan · L 14–20; offense 19.3 percentile2022 Week 14: Toledo vs. Ohio · W 17–7; offense 45.8 percentile2022 Week 1: Toledo vs. Liberty · W 21–19; offense 46.6 percentile2023 Week 1: Toledo at Illinois · L 28–30; offense 77.1 percentile2023 Week 2: Toledo vs. Texas Southern · W 71–3; offense 81.3 percentile2023 Week 3: Toledo vs. San José State · W 21–17; offense 54.8 percentile2023 Week 4: Toledo vs. Western Michigan · W 49–31; offense 60.2 percentile2023 Week 5: Toledo vs. Northern Illinois · W 35–33; offense 73.0 percentile2023 Week 6: Toledo at Massachusetts · W 41–24; offense 96.1 percentile2023 Week 7: Toledo at Ball State · W 13–6; offense 68.7 percentile2023 Week 8: Toledo at Miami (OH) · W 21–17; offense 71.8 percentile2023 Week 10: Toledo vs. Buffalo · W 31–13; offense 42.6 percentile2023 Week 11: Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan · W 49–23; offense 90.2 percentile2023 Week 12: Toledo at Bowling Green · W 32–31; offense 74.5 percentile2023 Week 13: Toledo at Central Michigan · W 32–17; offense 39.8 percentile2023 Week 14: Toledo vs. Miami (OH) · L 14–23; offense 33.8 percentile2023 Week 1: Toledo vs. Wyoming · L 15–16; offense 24.5 percentile2024 Week 1: Toledo vs. Duquesne · W 49–10; offense 51.0 percentile2024 Week 2: Toledo vs. Massachusetts · W 38–23; offense 11.2 percentile2024 Week 3: Toledo at Mississippi State · W 41–17; offense 64.4 percentile2024 Week 4: Toledo at Western Kentucky · L 21–26; offense 25.5 percentile2024 Week 6: Toledo vs. Miami (OH) · W 30–20; offense 36.1 percentile2024 Week 8: Toledo at Northern Illinois · W 13–6; offense 26.4 percentile2024 Week 9: Toledo vs. Bowling Green · L 26–41; offense 63.2 percentile2024 Week 10: Toledo at Eastern Michigan · W 29–28; offense 26.0 percentile2024 Week 12: Toledo vs. Central Michigan · W 37–10; offense 32.3 percentile2024 Week 13: Toledo vs. Ohio · L 7–24; offense 2.6 percentile2025 Week 1: Toledo at Kentucky · L 16–24; offense 4.4 percentile2025 Week 2: Toledo vs. Western Kentucky · W 45–21; offense 95.0 percentile2025 Week 3: Toledo vs. Morgan State · W 60–0; offense 48.0 percentile2025 Week 4: Toledo at Western Michigan · L 13–14; offense 15.8 percentile2025 Week 5: Toledo vs. Akron · W 45–3; offense 95.6 percentile2025 Week 7: Toledo at Bowling Green · L 23–28; offense 21.4 percentile2025 Week 8: Toledo vs. Kent State · W 45–10; offense 79.6 percentile2025 Week 9: Toledo at Washington State · L 7–28; offense 15.2 percentile2025 Week 11: Toledo vs. Northern Illinois · W 42–3; offense 94.1 percentile2025 Week 12: Toledo at Miami (OH) · W 24–3; offense 59.8 percentile2025 Week 13: Toledo vs. Ball State · W 38–9; offense 70.4 percentile2025 Week 14: Toledo at Central Michigan · W 21–3; offense 47.5 percentile2025 Week 1: Toledo vs. Louisville · L 22–27; offense 71.4 percentile2026 Week 1: Toledo at Michigan State · L 20–30; offense 29.5 percentile2026 Week 2: Toledo vs. Central Connecticut · W 63–10; offense 69.1 percentile2014 offense season mean: 79.3 percentile2015 offense season mean: 58.8 percentile2016 offense season mean: 82.2 percentile2017 offense season mean: 66.2 percentile2018 offense season mean: 66.1 percentile2019 offense season mean: 44.9 percentile2020 offense season mean: 57.4 percentile2021 offense season mean: 59.4 percentile2022 offense season mean: 50.7 percentile2023 offense season mean: 66.2 percentile2024 offense season mean: 30.2 percentile2025 offense season mean: 57.5 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 55.9 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 49.2 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Toledo vs. New Hampshire · W 54–20; defense 26.8 percentile2014 Week 2: Toledo vs. Missouri · L 24–49; defense 16.7 percentile2014 Week 3: Toledo at Cincinnati · L 34–58; defense 14.3 percentile2014 Week 4: Toledo vs. Ball State · W 34–23; defense 47.6 percentile2014 Week 5: Toledo vs. Central Michigan · W 42–28; defense 16.5 percentile2014 Week 7: Toledo at Iowa State · L 30–37; defense 24.1 percentile2014 Week 9: Toledo vs. Massachusetts · W 42–35; defense 29.3 percentile2014 Week 11: Toledo at Kent State · W 30–20; defense 29.1 percentile2014 Week 12: Toledo at Northern Illinois · L 24–27; defense 74.3 percentile2014 Week 13: Toledo vs. Bowling Green · W 27–20; defense 84.2 percentile2014 Week 14: Toledo at Eastern Michigan · W 52–16; defense 76.2 percentile2014 Week 1: Toledo vs. Arkansas State · W 63–44; defense 34.0 percentile2015 Week 2: Toledo at Arkansas · W 16–12; defense 96.4 percentile2015 Week 3: Toledo vs. Iowa State · W 30–23; defense 36.2 percentile2015 Week 4: Toledo vs. Arkansas State · W 37–7; defense 99.4 percentile2015 Week 5: Toledo at Ball State · W 24–10; defense 94.5 percentile2015 Week 6: Toledo vs. Kent State · W 38–7; defense 55.1 percentile2015 Week 7: Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan · W 63–20; defense 53.6 percentile2015 Week 8: Toledo at Massachusetts · W 51–35; defense 60.6 percentile2015 Week 10: Toledo vs. Northern Illinois · L 27–32; defense 68.4 percentile2015 Week 11: Toledo at Central Michigan · W 28–23; defense 56.2 percentile2015 Week 12: Toledo at Bowling Green · W 44–28; defense 77.4 percentile2015 Week 1: Toledo vs. Temple · W 32–17; defense 76.4 percentile2016 Week 1: Toledo at Arkansas State · W 31–10; defense 82.6 percentile2016 Week 2: Toledo vs. Maine · W 45–3; defense 72.1 percentile2016 Week 3: Toledo vs. Fresno State · W 52–17; defense 85.4 percentile2016 Week 5: Toledo at BYU · L 53–55; defense 9.3 percentile2016 Week 6: Toledo at Eastern Michigan · W 35–20; defense 80.5 percentile2016 Week 8: Toledo vs. Central Michigan · W 31–17; defense 75.6 percentile2016 Week 9: Toledo vs. Ohio · L 26–31; defense 34.9 percentile2016 Week 10: Toledo at Akron · W 48–17; defense 45.7 percentile2016 Week 11: Toledo vs. Northern Illinois · W 31–24; defense 61.6 percentile2016 Week 12: Toledo vs. Ball State · W 37–19; defense 77.4 percentile2016 Week 13: Toledo at Western Michigan · L 35–55; defense 41.7 percentile2016 Week 1: Toledo vs. App State · L 28–31; defense 65.7 percentile2017 Week 1: Toledo vs. Elon · W 47–13; defense 58.1 percentile2017 Week 2: Toledo at Nevada · W 37–24; defense 33.0 percentile2017 Week 3: Toledo vs. Tulsa · W 54–51; defense 16.4 percentile2017 Week 6: Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan · W 20–15; defense 83.0 percentile2017 Week 7: Toledo at Central Michigan · W 30–10; defense 95.0 percentile2017 Week 8: Toledo vs. Akron · W 48–21; defense 58.5 percentile2017 Week 9: Toledo at Ball State · W 58–17; defense 77.1 percentile2017 Week 10: Toledo vs. Northern Illinois · W 27–17; defense 38.5 percentile2017 Week 11: Toledo at Ohio · L 10–38; defense 15.0 percentile2017 Week 12: Toledo at Bowling Green · W 66–37; defense 29.1 percentile2017 Week 13: Toledo vs. Western Michigan · W 37–10; defense 87.2 percentile2017 Week 14: Toledo vs. Akron · W 45–28; defense 38.0 percentile2017 Week 1: Toledo vs. App State · L 0–34; defense 41.9 percentile2018 Week 1: Toledo vs. VMI · W 66–3; defense 46.8 percentile2018 Week 3: Toledo vs. Miami · L 24–49; defense 13.2 percentile2018 Week 4: Toledo vs. Nevada · W 63–44; defense 22.8 percentile2018 Week 5: Toledo at Fresno State · L 27–49; defense 9.0 percentile2018 Week 6: Toledo vs. Bowling Green · W 52–36; defense 13.0 percentile2018 Week 7: Toledo at Eastern Michigan · L 26–28; defense 54.7 percentile2018 Week 8: Toledo vs. Buffalo · L 17–31; defense 83.1 percentile2018 Week 9: Toledo at Western Michigan · W 51–24; defense 40.7 percentile2018 Week 10: Toledo vs. Ball State · W 45–13; defense 65.7 percentile2018 Week 11: Toledo at Northern Illinois · L 15–38; defense 10.8 percentile2018 Week 12: Toledo at Kent State · W 56–34; defense 28.8 percentile2018 Week 13: Toledo vs. Central Michigan · W 51–13; defense 93.1 percentile2018 Week 1: Toledo vs. Florida International · L 32–35; defense 24.7 percentile2019 Week 1: Toledo at Kentucky · L 24–38; defense 59.6 percentile2019 Week 3: Toledo vs. Murray State · W 45–0; defense 59.7 percentile2019 Week 4: Toledo at Colorado State · W 41–35; defense 17.0 percentile2019 Week 5: Toledo vs. BYU · W 28–21; defense 70.6 percentile2019 Week 6: Toledo vs. Western Michigan · W 31–24; defense 62.8 percentile2019 Week 7: Toledo at Bowling Green · L 7–20; defense 10.1 percentile2019 Week 8: Toledo at Ball State · L 14–52; defense 1.9 percentile2019 Week 9: Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan · W 37–34; defense 37.8 percentile2019 Week 11: Toledo vs. Kent State · W 35–33; defense 31.4 percentile2019 Week 12: Toledo vs. Northern Illinois · L 28–31; defense 19.4 percentile2019 Week 13: Toledo at Buffalo · L 30–49; defense 10.3 percentile2019 Week 14: Toledo at Central Michigan · L 7–49; defense 9.8 percentile2020 Week 10: Toledo vs. Bowling Green · W 38–3; defense 88.1 percentile2020 Week 11: Toledo at Western Michigan · L 38–41; defense 52.5 percentile2020 Week 12: Toledo at Eastern Michigan · W 45–28; defense 91.3 percentile2020 Week 13: Toledo vs. Ball State · L 24–27; defense 76.9 percentile2020 Week 14: Toledo at Northern Illinois · W 41–24; defense 34.5 percentile2020 Week 15: Toledo vs. Central Michigan · W 24–23; defense 74.3 percentile2021 Week 1: Toledo vs. Norfolk State · W 49–10; defense 35.6 percentile2021 Week 2: Toledo at Notre Dame · L 29–32; defense 64.8 percentile2021 Week 3: Toledo vs. Colorado State · L 6–22; defense 71.5 percentile2021 Week 4: Toledo at Ball State · W 22–12; defense 76.0 percentile2021 Week 5: Toledo at Massachusetts · W 45–7; defense 99.5 percentile2021 Week 6: Toledo vs. Northern Illinois · L 20–22; defense 61.0 percentile2021 Week 8: Toledo vs. Western Michigan · W 34–15; defense 65.1 percentile2021 Week 10: Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan · L 49–52; defense 24.0 percentile2021 Week 11: Toledo at Bowling Green · W 49–17; defense 59.3 percentile2021 Week 12: Toledo at Ohio · W 35–23; defense 67.2 percentile2021 Week 13: Toledo vs. Akron · W 49–14; defense 44.1 percentile2021 Week 1: Toledo vs. Middle Tennessee · L 24–31; defense 53.8 percentile2022 Week 1: Toledo vs. Long Island University · W 37–0; defense 71.9 percentile2022 Week 2: Toledo vs. Massachusetts · W 55–10; defense 66.1 percentile2022 Week 3: Toledo at Ohio State · L 21–77; defense 2.4 percentile2022 Week 4: Toledo at San Diego State · L 14–17; defense 71.9 percentile2022 Week 5: Toledo vs. Central Michigan · W 38–17; defense 84.9 percentile2022 Week 6: Toledo at Northern Illinois · W 52–32; defense 65.6 percentile2022 Week 7: Toledo vs. Kent State · W 52–31; defense 51.9 percentile2022 Week 9: Toledo at Eastern Michigan · W 27–24; defense 76.7 percentile2022 Week 11: Toledo vs. Ball State · W 28–21; defense 68.4 percentile2022 Week 12: Toledo vs. Bowling Green · L 35–42; defense 24.2 percentile2022 Week 13: Toledo at Western Michigan · L 14–20; defense 93.0 percentile2022 Week 14: Toledo vs. Ohio · W 17–7; defense 97.8 percentile2022 Week 1: Toledo vs. Liberty · W 21–19; defense 26.8 percentile2023 Week 1: Toledo at Illinois · L 28–30; defense 20.6 percentile2023 Week 2: Toledo vs. Texas Southern · W 71–3; defense 52.8 percentile2023 Week 3: Toledo vs. San José State · W 21–17; defense 93.0 percentile2023 Week 4: Toledo vs. Western Michigan · W 49–31; defense 77.2 percentile2023 Week 5: Toledo vs. Northern Illinois · W 35–33; defense 64.7 percentile2023 Week 6: Toledo at Massachusetts · W 41–24; defense 17.1 percentile2023 Week 7: Toledo at Ball State · W 13–6; defense 72.5 percentile2023 Week 8: Toledo at Miami (OH) · W 21–17; defense 59.0 percentile2023 Week 10: Toledo vs. Buffalo · W 31–13; defense 81.3 percentile2023 Week 11: Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan · W 49–23; defense 72.0 percentile2023 Week 12: Toledo at Bowling Green · W 32–31; defense 35.3 percentile2023 Week 13: Toledo at Central Michigan · W 32–17; defense 76.2 percentile2023 Week 14: Toledo vs. Miami (OH) · L 14–23; defense 67.7 percentile2023 Week 1: Toledo vs. Wyoming · L 15–16; defense 48.3 percentile2024 Week 1: Toledo vs. Duquesne · W 49–10; defense 10.5 percentile2024 Week 2: Toledo vs. Massachusetts · W 38–23; defense 78.7 percentile2024 Week 3: Toledo at Mississippi State · W 41–17; defense 60.2 percentile2024 Week 4: Toledo at Western Kentucky · L 21–26; defense 74.0 percentile2024 Week 6: Toledo vs. Miami (OH) · W 30–20; defense 60.7 percentile2024 Week 8: Toledo at Northern Illinois · W 13–6; defense 90.1 percentile2024 Week 9: Toledo vs. Bowling Green · L 26–41; defense 24.5 percentile2024 Week 10: Toledo at Eastern Michigan · W 29–28; defense 48.2 percentile2024 Week 12: Toledo vs. Central Michigan · W 37–10; defense 87.8 percentile2024 Week 13: Toledo vs. Ohio · L 7–24; defense 85.0 percentile2025 Week 1: Toledo at Kentucky · L 16–24; defense 44.2 percentile2025 Week 2: Toledo vs. Western Kentucky · W 45–21; defense 86.0 percentile2025 Week 3: Toledo vs. Morgan State · W 60–0; defense 94.1 percentile2025 Week 4: Toledo at Western Michigan · L 13–14; defense 90.4 percentile2025 Week 5: Toledo vs. Akron · W 45–3; defense 96.2 percentile2025 Week 7: Toledo at Bowling Green · L 23–28; defense 88.0 percentile2025 Week 8: Toledo vs. Kent State · W 45–10; defense 61.7 percentile2025 Week 9: Toledo at Washington State · L 7–28; defense 27.8 percentile2025 Week 11: Toledo vs. Northern Illinois · W 42–3; defense 94.4 percentile2025 Week 12: Toledo at Miami (OH) · W 24–3; defense 96.3 percentile2025 Week 13: Toledo vs. Ball State · W 38–9; defense 31.4 percentile2025 Week 14: Toledo at Central Michigan · W 21–3; defense 72.6 percentile2025 Week 1: Toledo vs. Louisville · L 22–27; defense 33.1 percentile2026 Week 1: Toledo at Michigan State · L 20–30; defense 39.1 percentile2026 Week 2: Toledo vs. Central Connecticut · W 63–10; defense 74.1 percentile2014 defense season mean: 38.4 percentile2015 defense season mean: 77.1 percentile2016 defense season mean: 61.7 percentile2017 defense season mean: 53.3 percentile2018 defense season mean: 37.5 percentile2019 defense season mean: 27.6 percentile2020 defense season mean: 72.5 percentile2021 defense season mean: 64.5 percentile2022 defense season mean: 63.4 percentile2023 defense season mean: 61.1 percentile2024 defense season mean: 63.6 percentile2025 defense season mean: 76.8 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 73.3 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 57.3 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2015Matt Campbell / Jason Candle
2016Jason Candle
2025Jason Candle / Robert Weiner
2026Mike Jacobs

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateMike JacobsCoaching change2
55.9 estimate49.2 games-only average
73.3 estimate57.3 games-only average
2025Jason Candle / Robert WeinerCoaching change1357.576.8
2024Jason Candle1030.263.6
2023Jason Candle1466.261.1
2022Jason Candle1350.763.4
2021Jason Candle1259.464.5
2020Jason Candle657.472.5
2019Jason Candle1244.927.6
2018Jason Candle1366.137.5
2017Jason Candle1366.253.3
2016Jason CandleCoaching change1282.261.7
2015Matt Campbell / Jason CandleCoaching change1158.877.1
2014Matt Campbell1279.338.4