2014–2026 performance history

USC over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

Big TenHead coach: Lincoln RileyView USC games →
Offense · 2026 estimate84.1/100

86.1 average through 2 games

83.5 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate59.0/100

88.8 average through 2 games

49.2 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

USC individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.SarkisianSteve Sarkisian, 2014Helton · ’15–’20Clay Helton, 2015–2020WilliamsDonte Williams, 2021Riley · ’22–’26Lincoln Riley, 2022–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: USC vs. Fresno State · W 52–13; offense 82.9 percentile2014 Week 2: USC at Stanford · W 13–10; offense 72.0 percentile2014 Week 5: USC vs. Oregon State · W 35–10; offense 44.7 percentile2014 Week 6: USC vs. Arizona State · L 34–38; offense 60.1 percentile2014 Week 7: USC at Arizona · W 28–26; offense 79.1 percentile2014 Week 8: USC vs. Colorado · W 56–28; offense 81.4 percentile2014 Week 9: USC at Utah · L 21–24; offense 42.5 percentile2014 Week 10: USC at Washington State · W 44–17; offense 53.0 percentile2014 Week 12: USC vs. California · W 38–30; offense 49.4 percentile2014 Week 13: USC at UCLA · L 20–38; offense 24.1 percentile2014 Week 14: USC vs. Notre Dame · W 49–14; offense 92.5 percentile2014 Week 1: USC vs. Nebraska · W 45–42; offense 76.3 percentile2015 Week 1: USC vs. Arkansas State · W 55–6; offense 89.1 percentile2015 Week 2: USC vs. Idaho · W 59–9; offense 93.7 percentile2015 Week 3: USC vs. Stanford · L 31–41; offense 93.8 percentile2015 Week 4: USC at Arizona State · W 42–14; offense 68.0 percentile2015 Week 6: USC vs. Washington · L 12–17; offense 38.7 percentile2015 Week 7: USC at Notre Dame · L 31–41; offense 69.4 percentile2015 Week 8: USC vs. Utah · W 42–24; offense 53.9 percentile2015 Week 9: USC at California · W 27–21; offense 33.3 percentile2015 Week 10: USC vs. Arizona · W 38–30; offense 61.1 percentile2015 Week 11: USC at Colorado · W 27–24; offense 35.7 percentile2015 Week 12: USC at Oregon · L 28–48; offense 40.9 percentile2015 Week 13: USC vs. UCLA · W 40–21; offense 54.8 percentile2015 Week 14: USC vs. Stanford · L 22–41; offense 72.0 percentile2015 Week 1: USC vs. Wisconsin · L 21–23; offense 62.4 percentile2016 Week 1: USC vs. Alabama · L 6–52; offense 4.3 percentile2016 Week 2: USC vs. Utah State · W 45–7; offense 54.9 percentile2016 Week 3: USC at Stanford · L 10–27; offense 45.3 percentile2016 Week 4: USC at Utah · L 27–31; offense 89.4 percentile2016 Week 5: USC vs. Arizona State · W 41–20; offense 52.7 percentile2016 Week 6: USC vs. Colorado · W 21–17; offense 87.5 percentile2016 Week 7: USC at Arizona · W 48–14; offense 90.9 percentile2016 Week 9: USC vs. California · W 45–24; offense 92.4 percentile2016 Week 10: USC vs. Oregon · W 45–20; offense 67.9 percentile2016 Week 11: USC at Washington · W 26–13; offense 84.7 percentile2016 Week 12: USC at UCLA · W 36–14; offense 87.2 percentile2016 Week 13: USC vs. Notre Dame · W 45–27; offense 61.4 percentile2016 Week 1: USC vs. Penn State · W 52–49; offense 90.8 percentile2017 Week 1: USC vs. Western Michigan · W 49–31; offense 96.0 percentile2017 Week 2: USC vs. Stanford · W 42–24; offense 99.5 percentile2017 Week 3: USC vs. Texas · W 27–24; offense 28.4 percentile2017 Week 4: USC at California · W 30–20; offense 34.0 percentile2017 Week 5: USC at Washington State · L 27–30; offense 60.8 percentile2017 Week 6: USC vs. Oregon State · W 38–10; offense 55.7 percentile2017 Week 7: USC vs. Utah · W 28–27; offense 72.0 percentile2017 Week 8: USC at Notre Dame · L 14–49; offense 36.8 percentile2017 Week 9: USC at Arizona State · W 48–17; offense 94.3 percentile2017 Week 10: USC vs. Arizona · W 49–35; offense 73.8 percentile2017 Week 11: USC at Colorado · W 38–24; offense 60.5 percentile2017 Week 12: USC vs. UCLA · W 28–23; offense 37.5 percentile2017 Week 14: USC vs. Stanford · W 31–28; offense 85.6 percentile2017 Week 1: USC vs. Ohio State · L 7–24; offense 35.9 percentile2018 Week 1: USC vs. UNLV · W 43–21; offense 63.0 percentile2018 Week 2: USC at Stanford · L 3–17; offense 26.9 percentile2018 Week 3: USC at Texas · L 14–37; offense 21.1 percentile2018 Week 4: USC vs. Washington State · W 39–36; offense 51.6 percentile2018 Week 5: USC at Arizona · W 24–20; offense 42.1 percentile2018 Week 7: USC vs. Colorado · W 31–20; offense 10.8 percentile2018 Week 8: USC at Utah · L 28–41; offense 14.1 percentile2018 Week 9: USC vs. Arizona State · L 35–38; offense 31.6 percentile2018 Week 10: USC at Oregon State · W 38–21; offense 72.0 percentile2018 Week 11: USC vs. California · L 14–15; offense 21.9 percentile2018 Week 12: USC at UCLA · L 27–34; offense 53.4 percentile2018 Week 13: USC vs. Notre Dame · L 17–24; offense 68.7 percentile2019 Week 1: USC vs. Fresno State · W 31–23; offense 36.2 percentile2019 Week 2: USC vs. Stanford · W 45–20; offense 80.5 percentile2019 Week 3: USC at BYU · L 27–30; offense 65.0 percentile2019 Week 4: USC vs. Utah · W 30–23; offense 71.8 percentile2019 Week 5: USC at Washington · L 14–28; offense 54.9 percentile2019 Week 7: USC at Notre Dame · L 27–30; offense 91.9 percentile2019 Week 8: USC vs. Arizona · W 41–14; offense 43.1 percentile2019 Week 9: USC at Colorado · W 35–31; offense 55.6 percentile2019 Week 10: USC vs. Oregon · L 24–56; offense 81.8 percentile2019 Week 11: USC at Arizona State · W 31–26; offense 60.4 percentile2019 Week 12: USC at California · W 41–17; offense 79.2 percentile2019 Week 13: USC vs. UCLA · W 52–35; offense 75.4 percentile2019 Week 1: USC vs. Iowa · L 24–49; offense 57.5 percentile2020 Week 10: USC vs. Arizona State · W 28–27; offense 67.1 percentile2020 Week 11: USC at Arizona · W 34–30; offense 53.3 percentile2020 Week 12: USC at Utah · W 33–17; offense 45.5 percentile2020 Week 14: USC vs. Washington State · W 38–13; offense 47.3 percentile2020 Week 15: USC at UCLA · W 43–38; offense 61.2 percentile2020 Week 16: USC vs. Oregon · L 24–31; offense 15.7 percentile2021 Week 2: USC vs. Stanford · L 28–42; offense 35.5 percentile2021 Week 3: USC at Washington State · W 45–14; offense 62.8 percentile2021 Week 4: USC vs. Oregon State · L 27–45; offense 77.3 percentile2021 Week 5: USC at Colorado · W 37–14; offense 81.2 percentile2021 Week 6: USC vs. Utah · L 26–42; offense 60.0 percentile2021 Week 8: USC at Notre Dame · L 16–31; offense 94.5 percentile2021 Week 9: USC vs. Arizona · W 41–34; offense 84.5 percentile2021 Week 10: USC at Arizona State · L 16–31; offense 10.6 percentile2021 Week 13: USC vs. BYU · L 31–35; offense 49.3 percentile2021 Week 14: USC at California · L 14–24; offense 56.7 percentile2022 Week 1: USC vs. Rice · W 66–14; offense 99.3 percentile2022 Week 2: USC at Stanford · W 41–28; offense 92.7 percentile2022 Week 3: USC vs. Fresno State · W 45–17; offense 98.9 percentile2022 Week 4: USC at Oregon State · W 17–14; offense 64.6 percentile2022 Week 5: USC vs. Arizona State · W 42–25; offense 94.0 percentile2022 Week 6: USC vs. Washington State · W 30–14; offense 48.7 percentile2022 Week 7: USC at Utah · L 42–43; offense 98.6 percentile2022 Week 9: USC at Arizona · W 45–37; offense 93.7 percentile2022 Week 10: USC vs. California · W 41–35; offense 88.9 percentile2022 Week 11: USC vs. Colorado · W 55–17; offense 65.7 percentile2022 Week 12: USC at UCLA · W 48–45; offense 88.3 percentile2022 Week 13: USC vs. Notre Dame · W 38–27; offense 96.3 percentile2022 Week 14: USC vs. Utah · L 24–47; offense 45.9 percentile2022 Week 1: USC vs. Tulane · L 45–46; offense 84.2 percentile2023 Week 1: USC vs. San José State · W 56–28; offense 63.2 percentile2023 Week 1: USC vs. Nevada · W 66–14; offense 92.8 percentile2023 Week 2: USC vs. Stanford · W 56–10; offense 91.9 percentile2023 Week 4: USC at Arizona State · W 42–28; offense 93.8 percentile2023 Week 5: USC at Colorado · W 48–41; offense 81.4 percentile2023 Week 6: USC vs. Arizona · W 43–41; offense 47.3 percentile2023 Week 7: USC at Notre Dame · L 20–48; offense 53.7 percentile2023 Week 8: USC vs. Utah · L 32–34; offense 82.3 percentile2023 Week 9: USC at California · W 50–49; offense 87.4 percentile2023 Week 10: USC vs. Washington · L 42–52; offense 95.5 percentile2023 Week 11: USC at Oregon · L 27–36; offense 66.7 percentile2023 Week 12: USC vs. UCLA · L 20–38; offense 28.4 percentile2023 Week 1: USC vs. Louisville · W 42–28; offense 90.8 percentile2024 Week 1: USC vs. LSU · W 27–20; offense 50.5 percentile2024 Week 2: USC vs. Utah State · W 48–0; offense 94.5 percentile2024 Week 4: USC at Michigan · L 24–27; offense 55.2 percentile2024 Week 5: USC vs. Wisconsin · W 38–21; offense 77.6 percentile2024 Week 6: USC at Minnesota · L 17–24; offense 89.6 percentile2024 Week 7: USC vs. Penn State · L 30–33; offense 84.9 percentile2024 Week 8: USC at Maryland · L 28–29; offense 51.2 percentile2024 Week 9: USC vs. Rutgers · W 42–20; offense 95.2 percentile2024 Week 10: USC at Washington · L 21–26; offense 63.7 percentile2024 Week 12: USC vs. Nebraska · W 28–20; offense 89.8 percentile2024 Week 13: USC at UCLA · W 19–13; offense 34.8 percentile2024 Week 14: USC vs. Notre Dame · L 35–49; offense 92.0 percentile2025 Week 1: USC vs. Missouri State · W 73–13; offense 97.0 percentile2025 Week 2: USC vs. Georgia Southern · W 59–20; offense 97.4 percentile2025 Week 3: USC at Purdue · W 33–17; offense 59.5 percentile2025 Week 4: USC vs. Michigan State · W 45–31; offense 97.3 percentile2025 Week 5: USC at Illinois · L 32–34; offense 76.3 percentile2025 Week 7: USC vs. Michigan · W 31–13; offense 88.8 percentile2025 Week 8: USC at Notre Dame · L 24–34; offense 50.0 percentile2025 Week 10: USC at Nebraska · W 21–17; offense 64.5 percentile2025 Week 11: USC vs. Northwestern · W 38–17; offense 93.3 percentile2025 Week 12: USC vs. Iowa · W 26–21; offense 78.0 percentile2025 Week 13: USC at Oregon · L 27–42; offense 71.5 percentile2025 Week 14: USC vs. UCLA · W 29–10; offense 89.7 percentile2025 Week 1: USC vs. TCU · L 27–30; offense 60.3 percentile2026 Week 1: USC vs. San José State · W 42–26; offense 91.4 percentile2026 Week 1: USC vs. Fresno State · W 39–0; offense 79.1 percentile2014 offense season mean: 65.2 percentile2015 offense season mean: 64.9 percentile2016 offense season mean: 72.5 percentile2017 offense season mean: 68.9 percentile2018 offense season mean: 38.0 percentile2019 offense season mean: 67.3 percentile2020 offense season mean: 47.5 percentile2021 offense season mean: 63.2 percentile2022 offense season mean: 89.3 percentile2023 offense season mean: 79.3 percentile2024 offense season mean: 77.7 percentile2025 offense season mean: 83.5 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 84.1 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 86.1 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: USC vs. Fresno State · W 52–13; defense 67.9 percentile2014 Week 2: USC at Stanford · W 13–10; defense 73.7 percentile2014 Week 5: USC vs. Oregon State · W 35–10; defense 95.6 percentile2014 Week 6: USC vs. Arizona State · L 34–38; defense 50.2 percentile2014 Week 7: USC at Arizona · W 28–26; defense 66.1 percentile2014 Week 8: USC vs. Colorado · W 56–28; defense 49.6 percentile2014 Week 9: USC at Utah · L 21–24; defense 81.3 percentile2014 Week 10: USC at Washington State · W 44–17; defense 93.4 percentile2014 Week 12: USC vs. California · W 38–30; defense 70.3 percentile2014 Week 13: USC at UCLA · L 20–38; defense 34.5 percentile2014 Week 14: USC vs. Notre Dame · W 49–14; defense 79.1 percentile2014 Week 1: USC vs. Nebraska · W 45–42; defense 70.5 percentile2015 Week 1: USC vs. Arkansas State · W 55–6; defense 73.7 percentile2015 Week 2: USC vs. Idaho · W 59–9; defense 93.3 percentile2015 Week 3: USC vs. Stanford · L 31–41; defense 17.7 percentile2015 Week 4: USC at Arizona State · W 42–14; defense 57.1 percentile2015 Week 6: USC vs. Washington · L 12–17; defense 82.8 percentile2015 Week 7: USC at Notre Dame · L 31–41; defense 23.2 percentile2015 Week 8: USC vs. Utah · W 42–24; defense 47.4 percentile2015 Week 9: USC at California · W 27–21; defense 73.5 percentile2015 Week 10: USC vs. Arizona · W 38–30; defense 87.0 percentile2015 Week 11: USC at Colorado · W 27–24; defense 67.8 percentile2015 Week 12: USC at Oregon · L 28–48; defense 15.7 percentile2015 Week 13: USC vs. UCLA · W 40–21; defense 64.3 percentile2015 Week 14: USC vs. Stanford · L 22–41; defense 36.9 percentile2015 Week 1: USC vs. Wisconsin · L 21–23; defense 59.6 percentile2016 Week 1: USC vs. Alabama · L 6–52; defense 43.8 percentile2016 Week 2: USC vs. Utah State · W 45–7; defense 87.3 percentile2016 Week 3: USC at Stanford · L 10–27; defense 19.4 percentile2016 Week 4: USC at Utah · L 27–31; defense 41.7 percentile2016 Week 5: USC vs. Arizona State · W 41–20; defense 79.3 percentile2016 Week 6: USC vs. Colorado · W 21–17; defense 62.8 percentile2016 Week 7: USC at Arizona · W 48–14; defense 87.8 percentile2016 Week 9: USC vs. California · W 45–24; defense 58.8 percentile2016 Week 10: USC vs. Oregon · W 45–20; defense 95.6 percentile2016 Week 11: USC at Washington · W 26–13; defense 98.9 percentile2016 Week 12: USC at UCLA · W 36–14; defense 69.1 percentile2016 Week 13: USC vs. Notre Dame · W 45–27; defense 75.9 percentile2016 Week 1: USC vs. Penn State · W 52–49; defense 13.5 percentile2017 Week 1: USC vs. Western Michigan · W 49–31; defense 30.5 percentile2017 Week 2: USC vs. Stanford · W 42–24; defense 50.6 percentile2017 Week 3: USC vs. Texas · W 27–24; defense 78.2 percentile2017 Week 4: USC at California · W 30–20; defense 64.5 percentile2017 Week 5: USC at Washington State · L 27–30; defense 42.1 percentile2017 Week 6: USC vs. Oregon State · W 38–10; defense 61.0 percentile2017 Week 7: USC vs. Utah · W 28–27; defense 40.3 percentile2017 Week 8: USC at Notre Dame · L 14–49; defense 10.6 percentile2017 Week 9: USC at Arizona State · W 48–17; defense 76.2 percentile2017 Week 10: USC vs. Arizona · W 49–35; defense 58.2 percentile2017 Week 11: USC at Colorado · W 38–24; defense 60.0 percentile2017 Week 12: USC vs. UCLA · W 28–23; defense 59.9 percentile2017 Week 14: USC vs. Stanford · W 31–28; defense 70.0 percentile2017 Week 1: USC vs. Ohio State · L 7–24; defense 93.2 percentile2018 Week 1: USC vs. UNLV · W 43–21; defense 48.6 percentile2018 Week 2: USC at Stanford · L 3–17; defense 75.5 percentile2018 Week 3: USC at Texas · L 14–37; defense 42.9 percentile2018 Week 4: USC vs. Washington State · W 39–36; defense 28.4 percentile2018 Week 5: USC at Arizona · W 24–20; defense 96.9 percentile2018 Week 7: USC vs. Colorado · W 31–20; defense 94.2 percentile2018 Week 8: USC at Utah · L 28–41; defense 24.9 percentile2018 Week 9: USC vs. Arizona State · L 35–38; defense 18.2 percentile2018 Week 10: USC at Oregon State · W 38–21; defense 70.5 percentile2018 Week 11: USC vs. California · L 14–15; defense 74.0 percentile2018 Week 12: USC at UCLA · L 27–34; defense 18.6 percentile2018 Week 13: USC vs. Notre Dame · L 17–24; defense 55.7 percentile2019 Week 1: USC vs. Fresno State · W 31–23; defense 45.4 percentile2019 Week 2: USC vs. Stanford · W 45–20; defense 63.1 percentile2019 Week 3: USC at BYU · L 27–30; defense 55.0 percentile2019 Week 4: USC vs. Utah · W 30–23; defense 57.3 percentile2019 Week 5: USC at Washington · L 14–28; defense 63.3 percentile2019 Week 7: USC at Notre Dame · L 27–30; defense 30.5 percentile2019 Week 8: USC vs. Arizona · W 41–14; defense 73.2 percentile2019 Week 9: USC at Colorado · W 35–31; defense 20.0 percentile2019 Week 10: USC vs. Oregon · L 24–56; defense 6.1 percentile2019 Week 11: USC at Arizona State · W 31–26; defense 66.7 percentile2019 Week 12: USC at California · W 41–17; defense 55.8 percentile2019 Week 13: USC vs. UCLA · W 52–35; defense 27.3 percentile2019 Week 1: USC vs. Iowa · L 24–49; defense 22.8 percentile2020 Week 10: USC vs. Arizona State · W 28–27; defense 52.6 percentile2020 Week 11: USC at Arizona · W 34–30; defense 18.4 percentile2020 Week 12: USC at Utah · W 33–17; defense 87.1 percentile2020 Week 14: USC vs. Washington State · W 38–13; defense 68.2 percentile2020 Week 15: USC at UCLA · W 43–38; defense 53.8 percentile2020 Week 16: USC vs. Oregon · L 24–31; defense 63.1 percentile2021 Week 2: USC vs. Stanford · L 28–42; defense 19.8 percentile2021 Week 3: USC at Washington State · W 45–14; defense 81.7 percentile2021 Week 4: USC vs. Oregon State · L 27–45; defense 5.2 percentile2021 Week 5: USC at Colorado · W 37–14; defense 77.3 percentile2021 Week 6: USC vs. Utah · L 26–42; defense 16.1 percentile2021 Week 8: USC at Notre Dame · L 16–31; defense 34.3 percentile2021 Week 9: USC vs. Arizona · W 41–34; defense 2.3 percentile2021 Week 10: USC at Arizona State · L 16–31; defense 38.2 percentile2021 Week 13: USC vs. BYU · L 31–35; defense 30.6 percentile2021 Week 14: USC at California · L 14–24; defense 74.2 percentile2022 Week 1: USC vs. Rice · W 66–14; defense 51.3 percentile2022 Week 2: USC at Stanford · W 41–28; defense 33.0 percentile2022 Week 3: USC vs. Fresno State · W 45–17; defense 51.8 percentile2022 Week 4: USC at Oregon State · W 17–14; defense 91.3 percentile2022 Week 5: USC vs. Arizona State · W 42–25; defense 24.1 percentile2022 Week 6: USC vs. Washington State · W 30–14; defense 75.8 percentile2022 Week 7: USC at Utah · L 42–43; defense 27.8 percentile2022 Week 9: USC at Arizona · W 45–37; defense 12.8 percentile2022 Week 10: USC vs. California · W 41–35; defense 18.2 percentile2022 Week 11: USC vs. Colorado · W 55–17; defense 37.6 percentile2022 Week 12: USC at UCLA · W 48–45; defense 48.9 percentile2022 Week 13: USC vs. Notre Dame · W 38–27; defense 24.4 percentile2022 Week 14: USC vs. Utah · L 24–47; defense 14.4 percentile2022 Week 1: USC vs. Tulane · L 45–46; defense 0.8 percentile2023 Week 1: USC vs. San José State · W 56–28; defense 65.3 percentile2023 Week 1: USC vs. Nevada · W 66–14; defense 66.7 percentile2023 Week 2: USC vs. Stanford · W 56–10; defense 89.4 percentile2023 Week 4: USC at Arizona State · W 42–28; defense 15.1 percentile2023 Week 5: USC at Colorado · W 48–41; defense 23.1 percentile2023 Week 6: USC vs. Arizona · W 43–41; defense 48.7 percentile2023 Week 7: USC at Notre Dame · L 20–48; defense 70.8 percentile2023 Week 8: USC vs. Utah · L 32–34; defense 15.6 percentile2023 Week 9: USC at California · W 50–49; defense 18.5 percentile2023 Week 10: USC vs. Washington · L 42–52; defense 1.6 percentile2023 Week 11: USC at Oregon · L 27–36; defense 20.8 percentile2023 Week 12: USC vs. UCLA · L 20–38; defense 47.2 percentile2023 Week 1: USC vs. Louisville · W 42–28; defense 31.7 percentile2024 Week 1: USC vs. LSU · W 27–20; defense 69.8 percentile2024 Week 2: USC vs. Utah State · W 48–0; defense 88.2 percentile2024 Week 4: USC at Michigan · L 24–27; defense 58.3 percentile2024 Week 5: USC vs. Wisconsin · W 38–21; defense 30.9 percentile2024 Week 6: USC at Minnesota · L 17–24; defense 32.5 percentile2024 Week 7: USC vs. Penn State · L 30–33; defense 48.2 percentile2024 Week 8: USC at Maryland · L 28–29; defense 64.8 percentile2024 Week 9: USC vs. Rutgers · W 42–20; defense 61.6 percentile2024 Week 10: USC at Washington · L 21–26; defense 38.8 percentile2024 Week 12: USC vs. Nebraska · W 28–20; defense 59.0 percentile2024 Week 13: USC at UCLA · W 19–13; defense 52.9 percentile2024 Week 14: USC vs. Notre Dame · L 35–49; defense 11.0 percentile2025 Week 1: USC vs. Missouri State · W 73–13; defense 87.0 percentile2025 Week 2: USC vs. Georgia Southern · W 59–20; defense 62.6 percentile2025 Week 3: USC at Purdue · W 33–17; defense 39.8 percentile2025 Week 4: USC vs. Michigan State · W 45–31; defense 31.3 percentile2025 Week 5: USC at Illinois · L 32–34; defense 1.6 percentile2025 Week 7: USC vs. Michigan · W 31–13; defense 73.0 percentile2025 Week 8: USC at Notre Dame · L 24–34; defense 85.2 percentile2025 Week 10: USC at Nebraska · W 21–17; defense 69.2 percentile2025 Week 11: USC vs. Northwestern · W 38–17; defense 44.3 percentile2025 Week 12: USC vs. Iowa · W 26–21; defense 39.0 percentile2025 Week 13: USC at Oregon · L 27–42; defense 44.4 percentile2025 Week 14: USC vs. UCLA · W 29–10; defense 42.3 percentile2025 Week 1: USC vs. TCU · L 27–30; defense 41.5 percentile2026 Week 1: USC vs. San José State · W 42–26; defense 75.5 percentile2026 Week 1: USC vs. Fresno State · W 39–0; defense 95.9 percentile2014 defense season mean: 72.3 percentile2015 defense season mean: 58.5 percentile2016 defense season mean: 69.3 percentile2017 defense season mean: 57.6 percentile2018 defense season mean: 57.2 percentile2019 defense season mean: 43.3 percentile2020 defense season mean: 57.9 percentile2021 defense season mean: 33.1 percentile2022 defense season mean: 33.0 percentile2023 defense season mean: 36.2 percentile2024 defense season mean: 51.3 percentile2025 defense season mean: 49.2 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 59.0 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 88.8 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2014Steve Sarkisian
2015Clay Helton
2021Donte Williams / Clay Helton
2022Lincoln Riley

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateLincoln Riley2
84.1 estimate86.1 games-only average
59.0 estimate88.8 games-only average
2025Lincoln Riley1383.549.2
2024Lincoln Riley1277.751.3
2023Lincoln Riley1379.336.2
2022Lincoln RileyCoaching change1489.333.0
2021Donte Williams / Clay HeltonCoaching change1063.233.1
2020Clay Helton647.557.9
2019Clay Helton1367.343.3
2018Clay Helton1238.057.2
2017Clay Helton1468.957.6
2016Clay Helton1372.569.3
2015Clay HeltonCoaching change1464.958.5
2014Steve SarkisianCoaching change1265.272.3