2014–2026 performance history

Arkansas State over time

Season-by-season offense and defense game grades, with head-coaching changes placed on the timeline.

Sun BeltHead coach: Butch JonesView Arkansas State games →
Offense · 2026 estimate36.7/100

82.7 average through 1 game

30.9 prior · 8 equivalent games
Defense · 2026 estimate39.7/100

12.7 average through 1 game

44.0 prior · 8 equivalent games

The trajectory

Game and Season Unit Ratings

Each small dot is one offensive or defensive game rating, arranged in the order played. For completed seasons, the short bar is that season’s average game rating. Both dot and bar values are labeled on a percentile scale. For 2026, the bar is the Bayesian estimate, while the outlined circle is the empirical games-only mean. Labeled background bands show each head coach’s era.

Arkansas State individual offense and defense game grades by seasonEach small point is one game. Horizontal bars show completed-season means and the Bayesian estimate for 2026. The outlined 2026 circle is the empirical games-only mean. Alternating labeled bands identify head-coaching eras.Anderson · ’14–’20Blake Anderson, 2014–2020Jones · ’21–’26Butch Jones, 2021–2026offenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Montana State · W 37–10; offense 42.0 percentile2014 Week 2: Arkansas State at Tennessee · L 19–34; offense 27.8 percentile2014 Week 3: Arkansas State at Miami · L 20–41; offense 23.8 percentile2014 Week 4: Arkansas State vs. Utah State · W 21–14; offense 13.0 percentile2014 Week 6: Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe · W 28–14; offense 46.8 percentile2014 Week 7: Arkansas State at Georgia State · W 52–10; offense 78.9 percentile2014 Week 9: Arkansas State at Louisiana · L 40–55; offense 72.7 percentile2014 Week 10: Arkansas State at Idaho · W 44–28; offense 16.5 percentile2014 Week 11: Arkansas State vs. South Alabama · W 45–10; offense 54.1 percentile2014 Week 12: Arkansas State vs. App State · L 32–37; offense 44.3 percentile2014 Week 13: Arkansas State at Texas State · L 27–45; offense 20.7 percentile2014 Week 14: Arkansas State vs. New Mexico State · W 68–35; offense 92.1 percentile2014 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Toledo · L 44–63; offense 65.4 percentile2015 Week 1: Arkansas State at USC · L 6–55; offense 23.8 percentile2015 Week 2: Arkansas State vs. Missouri · L 20–27; offense 12.9 percentile2015 Week 3: Arkansas State vs. Missouri State · W 70–7; offense 83.7 percentile2015 Week 4: Arkansas State at Toledo · L 7–37; offense 5.6 percentile2015 Week 5: Arkansas State vs. Idaho · W 49–35; offense 82.7 percentile2015 Week 7: Arkansas State at South Alabama · W 49–31; offense 32.4 percentile2015 Week 8: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana · W 37–27; offense 61.7 percentile2015 Week 9: Arkansas State vs. Georgia State · W 48–34; offense 85.0 percentile2015 Week 10: Arkansas State at App State · W 40–27; offense 92.2 percentile2015 Week 11: Arkansas State at UL Monroe · W 59–21; offense 29.3 percentile2015 Week 13: Arkansas State at New Mexico State · W 52–28; offense 52.1 percentile2015 Week 14: Arkansas State vs. Texas State · W 55–17; offense 96.5 percentile2015 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech · L 28–47; offense 59.4 percentile2016 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Toledo · L 10–31; offense 10.5 percentile2016 Week 2: Arkansas State at Auburn · L 14–51; offense 28.7 percentile2016 Week 3: Arkansas State at Utah State · L 20–34; offense 16.5 percentile2016 Week 4: Arkansas State vs. Central Arkansas · L 23–28; offense 6.0 percentile2016 Week 6: Arkansas State vs. Georgia Southern · W 27–26; offense 34.5 percentile2016 Week 7: Arkansas State vs. South Alabama · W 17–7; offense 21.9 percentile2016 Week 9: Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe · W 51–10; offense 53.2 percentile2016 Week 10: Arkansas State at Georgia State · W 31–16; offense 15.8 percentile2016 Week 11: Arkansas State vs. New Mexico State · W 41–22; offense 49.1 percentile2016 Week 12: Arkansas State at Troy · W 35–3; offense 64.8 percentile2016 Week 13: Arkansas State at Louisiana · L 19–24; offense 50.7 percentile2016 Week 14: Arkansas State at Texas State · W 36–14; offense 27.7 percentile2016 Week 1: Arkansas State at UCF · W 31–13; offense 8.6 percentile2017 Week 1: Arkansas State at Nebraska · L 36–43; offense 36.0 percentile2017 Week 3: Arkansas State vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff · W 48–3; offense 32.6 percentile2017 Week 4: Arkansas State at SMU · L 21–44; offense 36.6 percentile2017 Week 6: Arkansas State at Georgia Southern · W 43–25; offense 55.1 percentile2017 Week 7: Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina · W 51–17; offense 91.1 percentile2017 Week 8: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana · W 47–3; offense 53.0 percentile2017 Week 9: Arkansas State at New Mexico State · W 37–21; offense 48.4 percentile2017 Week 11: Arkansas State at South Alabama · L 19–24; offense 14.5 percentile2017 Week 12: Arkansas State vs. Texas State · W 30–12; offense 58.7 percentile2017 Week 13: Arkansas State at UL Monroe · W 67–50; offense 76.8 percentile2017 Week 14: Arkansas State vs. Troy · L 25–32; offense 84.4 percentile2017 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Middle Tennessee · L 30–35; offense 74.2 percentile2018 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Southeast Missouri State · W 48–21; offense 73.5 percentile2018 Week 2: Arkansas State at Alabama · L 7–57; offense 49.7 percentile2018 Week 3: Arkansas State at Tulsa · W 29–20; offense 40.4 percentile2018 Week 4: Arkansas State vs. UNLV · W 27–20; offense 29.2 percentile2018 Week 5: Arkansas State at Georgia Southern · L 21–28; offense 61.9 percentile2018 Week 7: Arkansas State vs. App State · L 9–35; offense 29.0 percentile2018 Week 8: Arkansas State vs. Georgia State · W 51–35; offense 74.8 percentile2018 Week 9: Arkansas State at Louisiana · L 43–47; offense 67.2 percentile2018 Week 10: Arkansas State vs. South Alabama · W 38–14; offense 53.3 percentile2018 Week 11: Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina · W 44–16; offense 92.7 percentile2018 Week 12: Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe · W 31–17; offense 44.2 percentile2018 Week 13: Arkansas State at Texas State · W 33–7; offense 69.5 percentile2018 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Nevada · L 13–16; offense 39.1 percentile2019 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. SMU · L 30–37; offense 39.1 percentile2019 Week 2: Arkansas State at UNLV · W 43–17; offense 65.3 percentile2019 Week 3: Arkansas State at Georgia · L 0–55; offense 17.0 percentile2019 Week 4: Arkansas State vs. Southern Illinois · W 41–28; offense 67.4 percentile2019 Week 5: Arkansas State at Troy · W 50–43; offense 59.3 percentile2019 Week 6: Arkansas State at Georgia State · L 38–52; offense 68.2 percentile2019 Week 8: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana · L 20–37; offense 49.1 percentile2019 Week 9: Arkansas State vs. Texas State · W 38–14; offense 44.0 percentile2019 Week 10: Arkansas State at UL Monroe · W 48–41; offense 12.6 percentile2019 Week 12: Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina · W 28–27; offense 24.8 percentile2019 Week 13: Arkansas State vs. Georgia Southern · W 38–33; offense 83.7 percentile2019 Week 14: Arkansas State at South Alabama · L 30–34; offense 32.1 percentile2019 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Florida International · W 34–26; offense 57.6 percentile2020 Week 1: Arkansas State at Memphis · L 24–37; offense 45.3 percentile2020 Week 2: Arkansas State at Kansas State · W 35–31; offense 60.4 percentile2020 Week 5: Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina · L 23–52; offense 38.2 percentile2020 Week 6: Arkansas State vs. Central Arkansas · W 50–27; offense 46.6 percentile2020 Week 7: Arkansas State vs. Georgia State · W 59–52; offense 69.7 percentile2020 Week 8: Arkansas State at App State · L 17–45; offense 20.8 percentile2020 Week 9: Arkansas State vs. Troy · L 10–38; offense 18.4 percentile2020 Week 10: Arkansas State at Louisiana · L 20–27; offense 58.1 percentile2020 Week 12: Arkansas State at Texas State · L 45–47; offense 78.4 percentile2020 Week 13: Arkansas State vs. South Alabama · L 31–38; offense 53.7 percentile2020 Week 14: Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe · W 48–15; offense 60.3 percentile2021 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Central Arkansas · W 40–21; offense 23.9 percentile2021 Week 2: Arkansas State vs. Memphis · L 50–55; offense 73.9 percentile2021 Week 3: Arkansas State at Washington · L 3–52; offense 23.8 percentile2021 Week 5: Arkansas State at Georgia Southern · L 33–59; offense 59.9 percentile2021 Week 6: Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina · L 20–52; offense 19.1 percentile2021 Week 8: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana · L 27–28; offense 64.6 percentile2021 Week 9: Arkansas State at South Alabama · L 13–31; offense 4.7 percentile2021 Week 10: Arkansas State vs. App State · L 14–48; offense 14.6 percentile2021 Week 11: Arkansas State at UL Monroe · W 27–24; offense 10.8 percentile2021 Week 13: Arkansas State vs. Texas State · L 22–24; offense 40.0 percentile2022 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Grambling · W 58–3; offense 41.4 percentile2022 Week 2: Arkansas State at Ohio State · L 12–45; offense 11.9 percentile2022 Week 3: Arkansas State at Memphis · L 32–44; offense 49.9 percentile2022 Week 4: Arkansas State at Old Dominion · L 26–29; offense 24.9 percentile2022 Week 6: Arkansas State vs. James Madison · L 20–42; offense 40.8 percentile2022 Week 7: Arkansas State at Southern Miss · L 19–20; offense 23.6 percentile2022 Week 8: Arkansas State at Louisiana · L 18–38; offense 38.0 percentile2022 Week 9: Arkansas State vs. South Alabama · L 3–31; offense 0.4 percentile2022 Week 11: Arkansas State vs. Massachusetts · W 35–33; offense 23.4 percentile2022 Week 12: Arkansas State at Texas State · L 13–16; offense 15.6 percentile2022 Week 13: Arkansas State vs. Troy · L 19–48; offense 23.5 percentile2023 Week 1: Arkansas State at Oklahoma · L 0–73; offense 3.5 percentile2023 Week 2: Arkansas State vs. Memphis · L 3–37; offense 1.2 percentile2023 Week 3: Arkansas State vs. Stony Brook · W 31–7; offense 35.1 percentile2023 Week 4: Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss · W 44–37; offense 64.0 percentile2023 Week 5: Arkansas State at Massachusetts · W 52–28; offense 91.7 percentile2023 Week 6: Arkansas State at Troy · L 3–37; offense 7.6 percentile2023 Week 8: Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina · L 17–27; offense 23.1 percentile2023 Week 9: Arkansas State at UL Monroe · W 34–24; offense 45.2 percentile2023 Week 10: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana · W 37–17; offense 61.8 percentile2023 Week 11: Arkansas State at South Alabama · L 14–21; offense 36.1 percentile2023 Week 12: Arkansas State vs. Texas State · W 77–31; offense 96.9 percentile2023 Week 13: Arkansas State at Marshall · L 21–35; offense 5.1 percentile2023 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois · L 19–21; offense 44.5 percentile2024 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Central Arkansas · W 34–31; offense 12.0 percentile2024 Week 2: Arkansas State vs. Tulsa · W 28–24; offense 11.2 percentile2024 Week 3: Arkansas State at Michigan · L 18–28; offense 15.0 percentile2024 Week 4: Arkansas State at Iowa State · L 7–52; offense 5.8 percentile2024 Week 6: Arkansas State vs. South Alabama · W 18–16; offense 17.8 percentile2024 Week 7: Arkansas State at Texas State · L 9–41; offense 49.0 percentile2024 Week 8: Arkansas State at Southern Miss · W 44–28; offense 64.8 percentile2024 Week 9: Arkansas State vs. Troy · W 34–31; offense 65.5 percentile2024 Week 11: Arkansas State at Louisiana · L 19–55; offense 47.9 percentile2024 Week 12: Arkansas State at Georgia State · W 27–20; offense 39.1 percentile2024 Week 13: Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe · W 28–21; offense 55.3 percentile2024 Week 14: Arkansas State vs. Old Dominion · L 32–40; offense 47.4 percentile2024 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green · W 38–31; offense 88.2 percentile2025 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Southeast Missouri State · W 42–24; offense 38.2 percentile2025 Week 4: Arkansas State at Kennesaw State · L 21–28; offense 18.0 percentile2025 Week 9: Arkansas State vs. Georgia Southern · W 34–24; offense 56.6 percentile2025 Week 10: Arkansas State at Troy · W 23–10; offense 22.7 percentile2025 Week 11: Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss · L 21–27; offense 34.2 percentile2025 Week 13: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana · L 30–34; offense 11.5 percentile2025 Week 14: Arkansas State at App State · W 30–29; offense 31.0 percentile2025 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Missouri State · W 34–28; offense 46.5 percentile2026 Week 1: Arkansas State at Memphis · L 24–42; offense 82.7 percentile2014 offense season mean: 45.9 percentile2015 offense season mean: 57.1 percentile2016 offense season mean: 26.9 percentile2017 offense season mean: 56.3 percentile2018 offense season mean: 57.1 percentile2019 offense season mean: 47.0 percentile2020 offense season mean: 49.7 percentile2021 offense season mean: 29.9 percentile2022 offense season mean: 22.1 percentile2023 offense season mean: 35.1 percentile2024 offense season mean: 37.2 percentile2025 offense season mean: 30.9 percentile2026 offense Bayesian estimate: 36.7 percentile2026 offense empirical mean: 82.7 percentiledefenseGame-grade percentile · higher is better9975502512014 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Montana State · W 37–10; defense 69.3 percentile2014 Week 2: Arkansas State at Tennessee · L 19–34; defense 33.8 percentile2014 Week 3: Arkansas State at Miami · L 20–41; defense 20.2 percentile2014 Week 4: Arkansas State vs. Utah State · W 21–14; defense 73.9 percentile2014 Week 6: Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe · W 28–14; defense 55.4 percentile2014 Week 7: Arkansas State at Georgia State · W 52–10; defense 88.6 percentile2014 Week 9: Arkansas State at Louisiana · L 40–55; defense 15.0 percentile2014 Week 10: Arkansas State at Idaho · W 44–28; defense 46.9 percentile2014 Week 11: Arkansas State vs. South Alabama · W 45–10; defense 96.5 percentile2014 Week 12: Arkansas State vs. App State · L 32–37; defense 24.6 percentile2014 Week 13: Arkansas State at Texas State · L 27–45; defense 13.3 percentile2014 Week 14: Arkansas State vs. New Mexico State · W 68–35; defense 40.8 percentile2014 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Toledo · L 44–63; defense 12.9 percentile2015 Week 1: Arkansas State at USC · L 6–55; defense 19.4 percentile2015 Week 2: Arkansas State vs. Missouri · L 20–27; defense 43.0 percentile2015 Week 3: Arkansas State vs. Missouri State · W 70–7; defense 30.6 percentile2015 Week 4: Arkansas State at Toledo · L 7–37; defense 76.4 percentile2015 Week 5: Arkansas State vs. Idaho · W 49–35; defense 71.8 percentile2015 Week 7: Arkansas State at South Alabama · W 49–31; defense 47.2 percentile2015 Week 8: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana · W 37–27; defense 36.1 percentile2015 Week 9: Arkansas State vs. Georgia State · W 48–34; defense 31.3 percentile2015 Week 10: Arkansas State at App State · W 40–27; defense 77.1 percentile2015 Week 11: Arkansas State at UL Monroe · W 59–21; defense 91.1 percentile2015 Week 13: Arkansas State at New Mexico State · W 52–28; defense 28.9 percentile2015 Week 14: Arkansas State vs. Texas State · W 55–17; defense 65.4 percentile2015 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech · L 28–47; defense 30.1 percentile2016 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Toledo · L 10–31; defense 29.7 percentile2016 Week 2: Arkansas State at Auburn · L 14–51; defense 4.8 percentile2016 Week 3: Arkansas State at Utah State · L 20–34; defense 65.7 percentile2016 Week 4: Arkansas State vs. Central Arkansas · L 23–28; defense 33.6 percentile2016 Week 6: Arkansas State vs. Georgia Southern · W 27–26; defense 74.9 percentile2016 Week 7: Arkansas State vs. South Alabama · W 17–7; defense 63.9 percentile2016 Week 9: Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe · W 51–10; defense 76.2 percentile2016 Week 10: Arkansas State at Georgia State · W 31–16; defense 97.2 percentile2016 Week 11: Arkansas State vs. New Mexico State · W 41–22; defense 56.1 percentile2016 Week 12: Arkansas State at Troy · W 35–3; defense 91.9 percentile2016 Week 13: Arkansas State at Louisiana · L 19–24; defense 80.0 percentile2016 Week 14: Arkansas State at Texas State · W 36–14; defense 62.9 percentile2016 Week 1: Arkansas State at UCF · W 31–13; defense 98.3 percentile2017 Week 1: Arkansas State at Nebraska · L 36–43; defense 11.1 percentile2017 Week 3: Arkansas State vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff · W 48–3; defense 58.3 percentile2017 Week 4: Arkansas State at SMU · L 21–44; defense 34.5 percentile2017 Week 6: Arkansas State at Georgia Southern · W 43–25; defense 40.9 percentile2017 Week 7: Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina · W 51–17; defense 52.6 percentile2017 Week 8: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana · W 47–3; defense 98.1 percentile2017 Week 9: Arkansas State at New Mexico State · W 37–21; defense 96.7 percentile2017 Week 11: Arkansas State at South Alabama · L 19–24; defense 72.8 percentile2017 Week 12: Arkansas State vs. Texas State · W 30–12; defense 84.2 percentile2017 Week 13: Arkansas State at UL Monroe · W 67–50; defense 16.0 percentile2017 Week 14: Arkansas State vs. Troy · L 25–32; defense 93.4 percentile2017 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Middle Tennessee · L 30–35; defense 62.6 percentile2018 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Southeast Missouri State · W 48–21; defense 56.0 percentile2018 Week 2: Arkansas State at Alabama · L 7–57; defense 18.1 percentile2018 Week 3: Arkansas State at Tulsa · W 29–20; defense 38.8 percentile2018 Week 4: Arkansas State vs. UNLV · W 27–20; defense 54.7 percentile2018 Week 5: Arkansas State at Georgia Southern · L 21–28; defense 39.6 percentile2018 Week 7: Arkansas State vs. App State · L 9–35; defense 80.0 percentile2018 Week 8: Arkansas State vs. Georgia State · W 51–35; defense 60.1 percentile2018 Week 9: Arkansas State at Louisiana · L 43–47; defense 27.8 percentile2018 Week 10: Arkansas State vs. South Alabama · W 38–14; defense 82.2 percentile2018 Week 11: Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina · W 44–16; defense 87.7 percentile2018 Week 12: Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe · W 31–17; defense 68.0 percentile2018 Week 13: Arkansas State at Texas State · W 33–7; defense 43.7 percentile2018 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Nevada · L 13–16; defense 98.0 percentile2019 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. SMU · L 30–37; defense 52.3 percentile2019 Week 2: Arkansas State at UNLV · W 43–17; defense 78.6 percentile2019 Week 3: Arkansas State at Georgia · L 0–55; defense 2.5 percentile2019 Week 4: Arkansas State vs. Southern Illinois · W 41–28; defense 5.0 percentile2019 Week 5: Arkansas State at Troy · W 50–43; defense 33.1 percentile2019 Week 6: Arkansas State at Georgia State · L 38–52; defense 15.1 percentile2019 Week 8: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana · L 20–37; defense 28.9 percentile2019 Week 9: Arkansas State vs. Texas State · W 38–14; defense 79.4 percentile2019 Week 10: Arkansas State at UL Monroe · W 48–41; defense 67.3 percentile2019 Week 12: Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina · W 28–27; defense 48.2 percentile2019 Week 13: Arkansas State vs. Georgia Southern · W 38–33; defense 43.8 percentile2019 Week 14: Arkansas State at South Alabama · L 30–34; defense 10.0 percentile2019 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Florida International · W 34–26; defense 41.6 percentile2020 Week 1: Arkansas State at Memphis · L 24–37; defense 23.9 percentile2020 Week 2: Arkansas State at Kansas State · W 35–31; defense 81.8 percentile2020 Week 5: Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina · L 23–52; defense 43.3 percentile2020 Week 6: Arkansas State vs. Central Arkansas · W 50–27; defense 43.0 percentile2020 Week 7: Arkansas State vs. Georgia State · W 59–52; defense 27.7 percentile2020 Week 8: Arkansas State at App State · L 17–45; defense 24.8 percentile2020 Week 9: Arkansas State vs. Troy · L 10–38; defense 29.7 percentile2020 Week 10: Arkansas State at Louisiana · L 20–27; defense 76.0 percentile2020 Week 12: Arkansas State at Texas State · L 45–47; defense 18.0 percentile2020 Week 13: Arkansas State vs. South Alabama · L 31–38; defense 32.4 percentile2020 Week 14: Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe · W 48–15; defense 52.8 percentile2021 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Central Arkansas · W 40–21; defense 42.2 percentile2021 Week 2: Arkansas State vs. Memphis · L 50–55; defense 0.9 percentile2021 Week 3: Arkansas State at Washington · L 3–52; defense 2.8 percentile2021 Week 5: Arkansas State at Georgia Southern · L 33–59; defense 3.0 percentile2021 Week 6: Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina · L 20–52; defense 22.5 percentile2021 Week 8: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana · L 27–28; defense 12.5 percentile2021 Week 9: Arkansas State at South Alabama · L 13–31; defense 42.6 percentile2021 Week 10: Arkansas State vs. App State · L 14–48; defense 14.8 percentile2021 Week 11: Arkansas State at UL Monroe · W 27–24; defense 69.6 percentile2021 Week 13: Arkansas State vs. Texas State · L 22–24; defense 50.5 percentile2022 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Grambling · W 58–3; defense 84.3 percentile2022 Week 2: Arkansas State at Ohio State · L 12–45; defense 33.1 percentile2022 Week 3: Arkansas State at Memphis · L 32–44; defense 17.5 percentile2022 Week 4: Arkansas State at Old Dominion · L 26–29; defense 75.4 percentile2022 Week 6: Arkansas State vs. James Madison · L 20–42; defense 5.3 percentile2022 Week 7: Arkansas State at Southern Miss · L 19–20; defense 39.2 percentile2022 Week 8: Arkansas State at Louisiana · L 18–38; defense 8.5 percentile2022 Week 9: Arkansas State vs. South Alabama · L 3–31; defense 91.1 percentile2022 Week 11: Arkansas State vs. Massachusetts · W 35–33; defense 17.1 percentile2022 Week 12: Arkansas State at Texas State · L 13–16; defense 58.9 percentile2022 Week 13: Arkansas State vs. Troy · L 19–48; defense 5.7 percentile2023 Week 1: Arkansas State at Oklahoma · L 0–73; defense 6.6 percentile2023 Week 2: Arkansas State vs. Memphis · L 3–37; defense 70.9 percentile2023 Week 3: Arkansas State vs. Stony Brook · W 31–7; defense 50.9 percentile2023 Week 4: Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss · W 44–37; defense 5.3 percentile2023 Week 5: Arkansas State at Massachusetts · W 52–28; defense 28.4 percentile2023 Week 6: Arkansas State at Troy · L 3–37; defense 30.8 percentile2023 Week 8: Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina · L 17–27; defense 51.5 percentile2023 Week 9: Arkansas State at UL Monroe · W 34–24; defense 37.1 percentile2023 Week 10: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana · W 37–17; defense 83.5 percentile2023 Week 11: Arkansas State at South Alabama · L 14–21; defense 66.9 percentile2023 Week 12: Arkansas State vs. Texas State · W 77–31; defense 40.6 percentile2023 Week 13: Arkansas State at Marshall · L 21–35; defense 25.4 percentile2023 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois · L 19–21; defense 56.5 percentile2024 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Central Arkansas · W 34–31; defense 9.1 percentile2024 Week 2: Arkansas State vs. Tulsa · W 28–24; defense 26.5 percentile2024 Week 3: Arkansas State at Michigan · L 18–28; defense 2.4 percentile2024 Week 4: Arkansas State at Iowa State · L 7–52; defense 7.4 percentile2024 Week 6: Arkansas State vs. South Alabama · W 18–16; defense 62.6 percentile2024 Week 7: Arkansas State at Texas State · L 9–41; defense 2.7 percentile2024 Week 8: Arkansas State at Southern Miss · W 44–28; defense 6.3 percentile2024 Week 9: Arkansas State vs. Troy · W 34–31; defense 32.4 percentile2024 Week 11: Arkansas State at Louisiana · L 19–55; defense 0.3 percentile2024 Week 12: Arkansas State at Georgia State · W 27–20; defense 75.6 percentile2024 Week 13: Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe · W 28–21; defense 17.0 percentile2024 Week 14: Arkansas State vs. Old Dominion · L 32–40; defense 4.9 percentile2024 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green · W 38–31; defense 54.0 percentile2025 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Southeast Missouri State · W 42–24; defense 14.3 percentile2025 Week 4: Arkansas State at Kennesaw State · L 21–28; defense 57.3 percentile2025 Week 9: Arkansas State vs. Georgia Southern · W 34–24; defense 57.6 percentile2025 Week 10: Arkansas State at Troy · W 23–10; defense 81.9 percentile2025 Week 11: Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss · L 21–27; defense 32.3 percentile2025 Week 13: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana · L 30–34; defense 30.5 percentile2025 Week 14: Arkansas State at App State · W 30–29; defense 42.2 percentile2025 Week 1: Arkansas State vs. Missouri State · W 34–28; defense 40.0 percentile2026 Week 1: Arkansas State at Memphis · L 24–42; defense 12.7 percentile2014 defense season mean: 46.2 percentile2015 defense season mean: 50.8 percentile2016 defense season mean: 68.5 percentile2017 defense season mean: 65.5 percentile2018 defense season mean: 61.4 percentile2019 defense season mean: 34.4 percentile2020 defense season mean: 40.9 percentile2021 defense season mean: 18.6 percentile2022 defense season mean: 36.2 percentile2023 defense season mean: 40.2 percentile2024 defense season mean: 14.9 percentile2025 defense season mean: 44.0 percentile2026 defense Bayesian estimate: 39.7 percentile2026 defense empirical mean: 12.7 percentile2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Individual gameSeason bar · 2026 is the estimate2026 empirical meanCoaching-era band
2014Blake Anderson
2021Butch Jones

How to read 2026

The current-season estimate intelligently blends last season with new data.

The 2026 estimate is a Bayesian weighted average of normal-score Z-values. The 2025 season mean counts like 8 games of prior evidence; each completed 2026 game counts once. The result is then translated back to the 0–100 percentile scale.

2026 Z = (8 × 2025 mean Z + games played × 2026 mean Z) ÷ (8 + games played)

Season record

Every annual grade and coach

Retrospective rows average the available single-game grades in normal-score space. The result is shown as a percentile. Roughly speaking, a 95th-percentile season corresponds to about the eighth-best team in a 160-team field.

SeasonHead coachGamesOffenseDefense
2026Live estimateButch Jones1
36.7 estimate82.7 games-only average
39.7 estimate12.7 games-only average
2025Butch Jones830.944.0
2024Butch Jones1337.214.9
2023Butch Jones1335.140.2
2022Butch Jones1122.136.2
2021Butch JonesCoaching change1029.918.6
2020Blake Anderson1149.740.9
2019Blake Anderson1347.034.4
2018Blake Anderson1357.161.4
2017Blake Anderson1256.365.5
2016Blake Anderson1326.968.5
2015Blake Anderson1357.150.8
2014Blake AndersonCoaching change1345.946.2