October 6–10, 2026 · Week 6 totals

Week 6 totals recommendations.

24 bets across 35 FBS–FBS games: 9 overs and 15 unders. Each call below keeps the book and total available when the card was saved on October 4. Another 23 games are awaiting totals quotes; they are not passes.

24recommended bets
9overs
15unders
11passes

Why these bets

A scoring forecast with a price attached.

The model estimates each team’s scoring and pace against this opponent. Completed games through Week 5 update team form. It also weighs how scoring has compared with the market, offensive style, venue and available weather.

The card starts with qualifying model edges, can add plays when its point and probability views disagree, and allows a limited group of extra overs. A final direction check passes on most calls when the calibrated chance of the chosen side winning is no better than even. It removed no additional Week 6 calls.

Weather forecasts cover all 35 games, including 1 indoor games with no outside exposure; conditions changed 7 predicted totals. Confirmed quarterback adjustments are outside this model, so late roster news deserves a fresh check.

Historical research · 2021–2025

What the betting history shows.

On 3729 historical games, the integrated model’s original selection rule made 2559 hypothetical bets, went 1446–1101–12, and returned +213.5 units risking one per play at assumed −110. The current selection rule includes a direction check. Applied to that same research sample, the fixed check retained 2,435 bets, went 1,389–1,034–12 and returned +228.73 units. These results helped choose the rule; they are historical research, not a live betting record or a predicted win rate for these 24 bets.

How the historical direction check was evaluated

The check removed 124 bets from the 2021–2025 sample. Choosing among candidate filters without the evaluated season’s outcomes showed smaller gains of +5.55 and +6.36 units in two research comparisons. The gain is uncertain, and recent seasons were weaker. Historical returns use consensus totals; the named books below are a separate October 4 snapshot.

The saved Week 6 card

24 recommendations across 35 games.

Grouped by game date, then by model edge against the saved consensus. The bet uses the named book’s total.

Tuesday, October 6

8:00 PM EDT

Southern Miss at Troy

Core model
Recommended bet · DraftKingsOver 48.5
Model vs. consensus+1.4 pts
Projected total
50.4
Consensus total
49.0
Chance at named line
54.9%
Book range
48.5–49.5
Weather adjustment
0.0

Cloudy · 77°F · 6.0 mph wind · weather adjustment 0.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by +0.5 points.

Wednesday, October 7

7:30 PM EDT

New Mexico State at Florida International

Probability addition
Recommended bet · DraftKingsUnder 47.5
Model vs. consensus−0.7 pts
Projected total
46.3
Consensus total
47.0
Chance at named line
53.2%
Book range
46.5–47.5
Weather adjustment
−1.0

Light Rain · 82°F · 5.8 mph wind · weather adjustment −1.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by +0.8 points. The point and probability views disagreed at the selection check.

7:00 PM EDT

Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State

Probability addition
Recommended bet · BovadaUnder 50.0
Model vs. consensus−0.1 pts
Projected total
49.1
Consensus total
49.3
Chance at named line
52.4%
Book range
48.5–50.0
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast available · 77°F · 1.1 mph wind · weather adjustment 0.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by +0.8 points. The point and probability views disagreed at the selection check.

Thursday, October 8

7:30 PM EDT

South Alabama at Arkansas State

Core model
Recommended bet · BovadaUnder 58.0
Model vs. consensus−2.1 pts
Projected total
55.9
Consensus total
58.0
Chance at named line
55.8%
Book range
58.0–58.0
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast available · 81°F · 6.0 mph wind · weather adjustment 0.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by 0.0 points.

7:00 PM EDT

Sam Houston at Liberty

Probability addition
Recommended bet · BovadaOver 52.5
Model vs. consensus+0.9 pts
Projected total
53.4
Consensus total
52.5
Chance at named line
52.5%
Book range
52.5–52.5
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast available · 76°F · 2.5 mph wind · weather adjustment 0.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by +0.4 points. The point and probability views disagreed at the selection check.

Friday, October 9

9:00 PM EDT

Wyoming at San José State

Core model
Recommended bet · BovadaOver 44.0
Model vs. consensus+1.9 pts
Projected total
46.0
Consensus total
44.0
Chance at named line
55.3%
Book range
44.0–44.0
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast available · 78°F · 5.6 mph wind · weather adjustment 0.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by +0.2 points.

7:00 PM EDT

Florida State at Louisville

Core model
Recommended bet · BovadaUnder 58.5
Model vs. consensus−1.9 pts
Projected total
56.6
Consensus total
58.5
Chance at named line
55.1%
Book range
58.5–58.5
Weather adjustment
0.0

Fair · 74°F · 4.6 mph wind · weather adjustment 0.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by −0.6 points.

9:00 PM EDT

Washington State at Utah State

Core model
Recommended bet · BovadaOver 43.5
Model vs. consensus+1.5 pts
Projected total
45.0
Consensus total
43.5
Chance at named line
54.0%
Book range
43.5–43.5
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast available · 76°F · 3.8 mph wind · weather adjustment 0.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by +0.3 points.

Saturday, October 10

7:30 PM EDT

Georgia at Alabama

Core model
Recommended bet · DraftKingsUnder 56.5
Model vs. consensus−3.6 pts
Projected total
52.9
Consensus total
56.5
Chance at named line
59.3%
Book range
56.5–56.5
Weather adjustment
−0.5

Forecast available · 71°F · 12.7 mph wind · weather adjustment −0.5 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by −0.9 points.

3:30 PM EDT

Kent State at Western Michigan

Core model
Recommended bet · BovadaOver 45.5
Model vs. consensus+2.1 pts
Projected total
47.6
Consensus total
45.5
Chance at named line
55.5%
Book range
45.5–45.5
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast available · 75°F · 8.3 mph wind · weather adjustment 0.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by +0.6 points.

12:00 PM EDT

Wake Forest at NC State

Core model
Recommended bet · BovadaUnder 60.0
Model vs. consensus−1.9 pts
Projected total
58.1
Consensus total
60.0
Chance at named line
55.0%
Book range
60.0–60.0
Weather adjustment
0.0

Overcast · 73°F · 8.1 mph wind · weather adjustment 0.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by −0.2 points.

12:45 PM EDT

South Carolina at Florida

Core model
Recommended bet · BovadaUnder 62.0
Model vs. consensus−1.8 pts
Projected total
57.9
Consensus total
59.8
Chance at named line
60.6%
Book range
57.5–62.0
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast available · 82°F · 4.2 mph wind · weather adjustment 0.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by −0.7 points.

12:00 PM EDT

Arizona at West Virginia

Core model
Recommended bet · BovadaUnder 60.0
Model vs. consensus−1.6 pts
Projected total
58.4
Consensus total
60.0
Chance at named line
54.3%
Book range
60.0–60.0
Weather adjustment
−0.1

Forecast available · 72°F · 10.3 mph wind · weather adjustment −0.1 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by −0.7 points.

7:30 PM EDT

USC at Penn State

Core model
Recommended bet · DraftKingsUnder 58.5
Model vs. consensus−1.5 pts
Projected total
55.8
Consensus total
57.3
Chance at named line
57.1%
Book range
56.0–58.5
Weather adjustment
0.0

Fair · 59°F · 4.6 mph wind · weather adjustment 0.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by −0.2 points.

3:30 PM EDT

Eastern Michigan at Akron

Core model
Recommended bet · BovadaOver 51.0
Model vs. consensus+1.4 pts
Projected total
52.5
Consensus total
51.0
Chance at named line
53.9%
Book range
51.0–51.0
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast available · 74°F · 9.2 mph wind · weather adjustment 0.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by +0.4 points.

3:30 PM EDT

Texas at Oklahoma

Over addition
Recommended bet · DraftKingsOver 41.5
Model vs. consensus+1.4 pts
Projected total
42.9
Consensus total
41.5
Chance at named line
53.8%
Book range
41.5–41.5
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast available · 82°F · 0.7 mph wind · weather adjustment 0.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by +0.2 points. This over came from the limited extra-over group.

3:30 PM EDT

Central Michigan at Ohio

Core model
Recommended bet · BovadaOver 48.0
Model vs. consensus+1.2 pts
Projected total
49.2
Consensus total
48.0
Chance at named line
53.3%
Book range
48.0–48.0
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast available · 76°F · 6.3 mph wind · weather adjustment 0.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by +0.2 points.

3:45 PM EDT

UConn at Temple

Core model
Recommended bet · BovadaUnder 53.0
Model vs. consensus−1.2 pts
Projected total
51.8
Consensus total
53.0
Chance at named line
53.2%
Book range
53.0–53.0
Weather adjustment
0.0

Cloudy · 74°F · 9.2 mph wind · weather adjustment 0.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by +0.1 points.

3:30 PM EDT

UCLA at Oregon

Core model
Recommended bet · DraftKingsUnder 60.5
Model vs. consensus−1.1 pts
Projected total
59.4
Consensus total
60.5
Chance at named line
52.9%
Book range
60.5–60.5
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast available · 57°F · 5.3 mph wind · weather adjustment 0.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by −1.2 points.

12:00 PM EDT

Sacramento State at Bowling Green

Over addition
Recommended bet · BovadaOver 43.0
Model vs. consensus+1.1 pts
Projected total
44.1
Consensus total
43.0
Chance at named line
52.9%
Book range
43.0–43.0
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast available · 77°F · 5.8 mph wind · weather adjustment 0.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by +0.5 points. This over came from the limited extra-over group.

12:00 PM EDT

Indiana at Nebraska

Core model
Recommended bet · BovadaUnder 52.0
Model vs. consensus−0.9 pts
Projected total
50.3
Consensus total
51.3
Chance at named line
54.6%
Book range
50.5–52.0
Weather adjustment
−0.9

Forecast available · 78°F · 14.8 mph wind · weather adjustment −0.9 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by −0.3 points.

12:00 PM EDT

Texas A&M at Missouri

Probability addition
Recommended bet · DraftKingsUnder 50.5
Model vs. consensus−0.8 pts
Projected total
49.7
Consensus total
50.5
Chance at named line
52.2%
Book range
50.5–50.5
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast available · 83°F · 6.5 mph wind · weather adjustment 0.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by +0.1 points. The point and probability views disagreed at the selection check.

3:30 PM EDT

Duke at Georgia Tech

Probability addition
Recommended bet · BovadaUnder 49.0
Model vs. consensus−0.7 pts
Projected total
48.3
Consensus total
49.0
Chance at named line
51.9%
Book range
49.0–49.0
Weather adjustment
−0.1

Rain · 74°F · 10.4 mph wind · weather adjustment −0.1 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by +0.6 points. The point and probability views disagreed at the selection check.

12:00 PM EDT

Tulane at Army

Probability addition
Recommended bet · BovadaUnder 47.0
Model vs. consensus−0.6 pts
Projected total
46.4
Consensus total
47.0
Chance at named line
51.7%
Book range
47.0–47.0
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast available · 63°F · 4.0 mph wind · weather adjustment 0.0 points. Completed 2026 games changed this matchup’s scoring outlook by +0.3 points. The point and probability views disagreed at the selection check.

Every prediction

All 35 games with totals quotes.

The 11 passes remain visible. A projected total alone is not a bet.

MatchupConsensusModelDifferenceCall
Southern Missat Troy · Tuesday, October 6 8:00 PM EDT49.050.4+1.4Over 48.5Core model
Jacksonville Stateat Kennesaw State · Wednesday, October 7 7:00 PM EDT49.349.1−0.1Under 50.0Probability addition
New Mexico Stateat Florida International · Wednesday, October 7 7:30 PM EDT47.046.3−0.7Under 47.5Probability addition
Sam Houstonat Liberty · Thursday, October 8 7:00 PM EDT52.553.4+0.9Over 52.5Probability addition
Missouri Stateat Western Kentucky · Thursday, October 8 7:00 PM EDT55.555.7+0.2PassPass
South Alabamaat Arkansas State · Thursday, October 8 7:30 PM EDT58.055.9−2.1Under 58.0Core model
South Floridaat UTSA · Thursday, October 8 7:30 PM EDT52.552.7+0.2PassPass
Florida Stateat Louisville · Friday, October 9 7:00 PM EDT58.556.6−1.9Under 58.5Core model
Wyomingat San José State · Friday, October 9 9:00 PM EDT44.046.0+1.9Over 44.0Core model
Washington Stateat Utah State · Friday, October 9 9:00 PM EDT43.545.0+1.5Over 43.5Core model
Iowaat Washington · Friday, October 9 9:00 PM EDT42.042.1+0.1PassPass
Iowa Stateat BYU · Friday, October 9 10:15 PM EDT49.549.1−0.4PassPass
Indianaat Nebraska · Saturday, October 10 12:00 PM EDT51.350.3−0.9Under 52.0Core model
Arizonaat West Virginia · Saturday, October 10 12:00 PM EDT60.058.4−1.6Under 60.0Core model
Wake Forestat NC State · Saturday, October 10 12:00 PM EDT60.058.1−1.9Under 60.0Core model
Sacramento Stateat Bowling Green · Saturday, October 10 12:00 PM EDT43.044.1+1.1Over 43.0Over addition
Tulaneat Army · Saturday, October 10 12:00 PM EDT47.046.4−0.6Under 47.0Probability addition
Texas A&Mat Missouri · Saturday, October 10 12:00 PM EDT50.549.7−0.8Under 50.5Probability addition
North Carolinaat Pittsburgh · Saturday, October 10 12:00 PM EDT47.047.5+0.5PassPass
South Carolinaat Florida · Saturday, October 10 12:45 PM EDT59.857.9−1.8Under 62.0Core model
Old Dominionat App State · Saturday, October 10 1:00 PM EDT51.050.4−0.6PassPass
Central Michiganat Ohio · Saturday, October 10 3:30 PM EDT48.049.2+1.2Over 48.0Core model
Kent Stateat Western Michigan · Saturday, October 10 3:30 PM EDT45.547.6+2.1Over 45.5Core model
UCLAat Oregon · Saturday, October 10 3:30 PM EDT60.559.4−1.1Under 60.5Core model
Eastern Michiganat Akron · Saturday, October 10 3:30 PM EDT51.052.5+1.4Over 51.0Core model
Texasat Oklahoma · Saturday, October 10 3:30 PM EDT41.542.9+1.4Over 41.5Over addition
Dukeat Georgia Tech · Saturday, October 10 3:30 PM EDT49.048.3−0.7Under 49.0Probability addition
Illinoisat Michigan State · Saturday, October 10 3:30 PM EDT50.050.5+0.5PassPass
Buffaloat Toledo · Saturday, October 10 3:30 PM EDT55.054.2−0.8PassPass
UConnat Temple · Saturday, October 10 3:45 PM EDT53.051.8−1.2Under 53.0Core model
Marylandat Ohio State · Saturday, October 10 4:15 PM EDT56.055.3−0.7PassPass
LSUat Kentucky · Saturday, October 10 7:00 PM EDT52.552.6+0.1PassPass
Georgiaat Alabama · Saturday, October 10 7:30 PM EDT56.552.9−3.6Under 56.5Core model
USCat Penn State · Saturday, October 10 7:30 PM EDT57.355.8−1.5Under 58.5Core model
Syracuseat Virginia · Saturday, October 10 7:30 PM EDT49.549.2−0.3PassPass

Awaiting totals quotes

23 games still need a line.

These games have no totals recommendation in this saved card. Missing quotes are separate from the 11 model passes.

See the games awaiting totals quotes
  • UCF at Oklahoma State · Saturday, October 10 12:00 PM EDT
  • Ball State at Northwestern · Saturday, October 10 12:30 PM EDT
  • Miami (OH) at Massachusetts · Saturday, October 10 2:00 PM EDT
  • Ole Miss at Vanderbilt · Saturday, October 10 3:30 PM EDT
  • Houston at Kansas State · Saturday, October 10 3:30 PM EDT
  • Stanford at Notre Dame · Saturday, October 10 3:30 PM EDT
  • Virginia Tech at California · Saturday, October 10 3:30 PM EDT
  • Charlotte at North Texas · Saturday, October 10 3:30 PM EDT
  • Tulsa at Navy · Saturday, October 10 3:30 PM EDT
  • Rice at East Carolina · Saturday, October 10 4:00 PM EDT
  • Tennessee at Arkansas · Saturday, October 10 4:15 PM EDT
  • San Diego State at Oregon State · Saturday, October 10 6:00 PM EDT
  • UAB at Memphis · Saturday, October 10 7:00 PM EDT
  • Nevada at UTEP · Saturday, October 10 7:00 PM EDT
  • North Dakota State at UNLV · Saturday, October 10 7:00 PM EDT
  • Coastal Carolina at Marshall · Saturday, October 10 7:00 PM EDT
  • Air Force at Northern Illinois · Saturday, October 10 7:30 PM EDT
  • James Madison at Georgia Southern · Saturday, October 10 7:30 PM EDT
  • Louisiana at Louisiana Tech · Saturday, October 10 7:30 PM EDT
  • Minnesota at Purdue · Saturday, October 10 8:00 PM EDT
  • Kansas at Utah · Saturday, October 10 10:15 PM EDT
  • Hawai'i at Arizona State · Saturday, October 10 10:30 PM EDT
  • Boise State at Fresno State · Saturday, October 10 10:30 PM EDT

Before betting

Check the current line and conditions.

Totals were captured October 4 at 12:54 p.m. Pacific. The feed supplied total lines, without individual wager odds; historical returns assume −110. A half-point, weather update or late roster news can change the value of a bet. Confirm the named book’s current total and price before acting. Forecast temperature and wind are held through a four-hour game window, with precipitation accumulated across that window. Indoor games receive no outside weather adjustment.

See Week 6 game predictions