Week 1 / Game totals

The total is
the argument.

A regulation-score model, a final-score model and the betting market all get a vote. The board publishes the answer only after separating the prediction from the price.

29recommendations
19unders
10overs
43remaining lined games

What changed

Let the under signal be an under signal.

This card is not forced to be directionally balanced. It currently finds 19 unders and 10 overs.

The core model targets the final total and recommends a side when it differs from the consensus by more than one point. A second CatBoost model targets regulation points, then converts its edge into an over probability using spread-binned isotonic calibration. That probability layer can add a recommendation where the core model passes; it never replaces a core side. On a Core model card, the point edge makes the call and probability is only a cross-check. On aProbability add card, calibrated probability makes the call.

The displayed book is the most favorable named-book total in the saved snapshot: lowest for an over, highest for an under. The model and probability are still evaluated against the provider consensus.

Sequential replay · 2021–2025

The policy earned the right to make the call.

Each historical season was forecast from earlier seasons. These are research replays, not a live betting record; the current card is the first forward slate for this exact combination.

Core model+95.6 units

1,907 settled bets · 5.0% ROI · profitable in 5/5 seasons

Probability additions+28.4 units

426 bets where core passed · positive in 4/5 seasons · 98.7% season-cluster support

Combined replay+124.0 units

2,333 settled bets · 5.3% ROI · core always keeps priority

The current card

29 recommendations across 43 games.

Core modelProbability add
01
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM EDT

UL Monroe at Mississippi State

Core model
Recommendation · BovadaOver 55.5
Core edge vs. consensus+1.8 pts
Final-total model
57.8
Consensus total
56.0
Model edge
+1.8
Regulation model
58.0
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(over) 57.2%
Expected possessions
11.57
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. 100°F, 1.6 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 55.5–56.5
02
Sat, Sep 5, 12:30 PM EDT

Ball State at Ohio State

Core model
Recommendation · BovadaOver 56.5
Core edge vs. consensus+1.3 pts
Final-total model
57.8
Consensus total
56.5
Model edge
+1.3
Regulation model
59.1
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(over) 57.2%
Expected possessions
11.04
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. 84°F, 9.8 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 56.5–56.5
03
Fri, Sep 4, 8:00 PM EDT

UTEP at Oklahoma

Core model
Recommendation · BovadaOver 50.5
Core edge vs. consensus+1.1 pts
Final-total model
51.6
Consensus total
50.5
Model edge
+1.1
Regulation model
52.9
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(over) 57.2%
Expected possessions
11.90
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Fair, 100°F, 6.3 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 50.5–50.5
04
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM EDT

Coastal Carolina at West Virginia

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 56.5
Core edge vs. consensus−3.1 pts
Final-total model
53.1
Consensus total
56.3
Model edge
−3.1
Regulation model
54.5
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 53.8%
Expected possessions
11.72
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. 84°F, 5.6 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 56.0–56.5
05
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM EDT

Florida International at South Florida

Core model
Recommendation · BovadaUnder 54.0
Core edge vs. consensus−3.1 pts
Final-total model
50.6
Consensus total
53.8
Model edge
−3.1
Regulation model
52.1
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 53.1%
Expected possessions
12.06
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Heavy Rain Shower, 83°F, 5.8 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 53.5–54.0
06
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM EDT

Texas State at Texas

Core model
Recommendation · BovadaUnder 60.0
Core edge vs. consensus−2.1 pts
Final-total model
57.6
Consensus total
59.8
Model edge
−2.1
Regulation model
58.5
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 51.2%
Expected possessions
11.55
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Fair, 99°F, 4.6 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 59.5–60.0
07
Sat, Sep 5, 7:45 PM EDT

Florida Atlantic at Florida

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 59.5
Core edge vs. consensus−1.4 pts
Final-total model
58.1
Consensus total
59.5
Model edge
−1.4
Regulation model
57.9
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 51.2%
Expected possessions
11.30
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. 89°F, 3.1 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 59.5–59.5
08
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM EDT

Boise State at Oregon

Core model
Recommendation · BovadaUnder 52.0
Core edge vs. consensus−1.9 pts
Final-total model
49.9
Consensus total
51.8
Model edge
−1.9
Regulation model
52.0
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 51.2%
Expected possessions
11.30
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. 62°F, 7.1 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 51.5–52.0
09
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM EDT

North Texas at Indiana

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 55.5
Core edge vs. consensus−1.6 pts
Final-total model
53.9
Consensus total
55.5
Model edge
−1.6
Regulation model
55.7
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 51.2%
Expected possessions
11.40
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. 95°F, 4.2 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 55.5–55.5
10
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM EDT

Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 49.5
Core edge vs. consensus−1.3 pts
Final-total model
48.2
Consensus total
49.5
Model edge
−1.3
Regulation model
50.0
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 51.2%
Expected possessions
11.67
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Cloudy, 81°F, 6.9 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 49.5–49.5
11
Fri, Sep 4, 9:00 PM EDT

Miami at Stanford

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 47.5
Core edge vs. consensus−1.3 pts
Final-total model
46.2
Consensus total
47.5
Model edge
−1.3
Regulation model
47.0
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 51.2%
Expected possessions
11.34
Weather adjustment
−0.1

Forecast applied. 68°F, 10.5 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total −0.1 points. Week 0 scoring evidence is included for Stanford. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 47.5–47.5
12
Sun, Sep 6, 4:00 PM EDT

Washington State at Washington

Core model
Recommendation · BovadaUnder 51.0
Core edge vs. consensus−1.6 pts
Final-total model
49.1
Consensus total
50.8
Model edge
−1.6
Regulation model
51.3
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 51.1%
Expected possessions
11.10
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Cloudy, 69°F, 8.1 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 50.5–51.0
13
Sat, Sep 5, 10:00 PM EDT

UNLV at Hawai'i

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 58.5
Core edge vs. consensus−2.5 pts
Final-total model
56.0
Consensus total
58.5
Model edge
−2.5
Regulation model
55.9
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 50.8%
Expected possessions
11.48
Weather adjustment
−0.7

Forecast applied. Cloudy, 86°F, 13.8 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total −0.7 points. Week 0 scoring evidence is included for UNLV and Hawai'i. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 58.5–58.5
14
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM EDT

Tulane at Duke

Core model
Recommendation · BovadaUnder 51.0
Core edge vs. consensus−1.5 pts
Final-total model
49.2
Consensus total
50.8
Model edge
−1.5
Regulation model
49.6
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 50.4%
Expected possessions
11.29
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Cloudy, 84°F, 6.9 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 50.5–51.0
15
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM EDT

Boston College at Cincinnati

Core model
Recommendation · BovadaUnder 52.0
Core edge vs. consensus−1.4 pts
Final-total model
50.3
Consensus total
51.8
Model edge
−1.4
Regulation model
51.5
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 50.4%
Expected possessions
11.23
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Cloudy, 87°F, 9.2 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 51.5–52.0
16
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM EDT

Liberty at James Madison

Core model
Recommendation · BovadaUnder 53.0
Core edge vs. consensus−2.8 pts
Final-total model
49.9
Consensus total
52.8
Model edge
−2.8
Regulation model
51.6
Probability cross-check
Opposes · P(under) 49.7%
Expected possessions
11.54
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. 89°F, 4.2 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. The probability model leans the other way; this recommendation comes from the core point-model edge. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 52.5–53.0
17
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM EDT · Neutral

Baylor vs. Auburn

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 59.5
Core edge vs. consensus−2.7 pts
Final-total model
56.5
Consensus total
59.3
Model edge
−2.7
Regulation model
58.4
Probability cross-check
Opposes · P(under) 49.7%
Expected possessions
11.43
Weather adjustment
0.0

Indoor — no weather adjustment. The game is indoors, so outside conditions contribute zero points. The probability model leans the other way; this recommendation comes from the core point-model edge. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 59.0–59.5
18
Sun, Sep 6, 7:30 PM EDT · Neutral

Louisville vs. Ole Miss

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 55.5
Core edge vs. consensus−1.9 pts
Final-total model
53.6
Consensus total
55.5
Model edge
−1.9
Regulation model
54.7
Probability cross-check
Opposes · P(under) 49.7%
Expected possessions
11.64
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Fair, 86°F, 6.9 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. The probability model leans the other way; this recommendation comes from the core point-model edge. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 55.5–55.5
19
Fri, Sep 4, 6:30 PM EDT

San José State at Eastern Michigan

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 54.5
Core edge vs. consensus−1.3 pts
Final-total model
52.7
Consensus total
54.0
Model edge
−1.3
Regulation model
53.0
Probability cross-check
Opposes · P(under) 49.7%
Expected possessions
11.43
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. 89°F, 0.9 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Week 0 scoring evidence is included for San José State and Eastern Michigan. The probability model leans the other way; this recommendation comes from the core point-model edge. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 53.5–54.5
20
Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM EDT

Colorado at Georgia Tech

Core model
Recommendation · BovadaUnder 51.0
Core edge vs. consensus−1.0 pts
Final-total model
49.7
Consensus total
50.8
Model edge
−1.0
Regulation model
50.4
Probability cross-check
Opposes · P(under) 49.7%
Expected possessions
11.40
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Cloudy, 88°F, 4.9 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. The probability model leans the other way; this recommendation comes from the core point-model edge. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 50.5–51.0
21
Sat, Sep 5, 10:00 PM EDT

Central Michigan at New Mexico

Core model
Recommendation · BovadaUnder 47.0
Core edge vs. consensus−1.3 pts
Final-total model
45.5
Consensus total
46.8
Model edge
−1.3
Regulation model
47.0
Probability cross-check
Opposes · P(under) 47.7%
Expected possessions
11.07
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Rain, 78°F, 9.2 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. The probability model leans the other way; this recommendation comes from the core point-model edge. Final-total model clears the one-point consensus edge gate.

Books 46.5–47.0
22
Sat, Sep 5, 6:00 PM EDT

Wyoming at Colorado State

Probability add
Recommendation · BovadaOver 47.5
Calibrated over probability60.8%
Final-total model
48.3
Consensus total
47.5
Model edge
+0.8
Regulation model
49.2
Probability gate
P(over) 60.8%
Expected possessions
11.51
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. 89°F, 3.6 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Margin-local over/under probability clears the -110 break-even rate where the core model passes.

Books 47.5–47.5
23
Sun, Sep 6, 7:30 PM EDT · Neutral

Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame

Probability add
Recommendation · BovadaOver 47.5
Calibrated over probability57.2%
Final-total model
46.6
Consensus total
47.5
Model edge
−0.9
Regulation model
49.2
Probability gate
P(over) 57.2%
Expected possessions
11.33
Weather adjustment
−0.0

Forecast applied. 83°F, 10.1 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total −0.0 points. Margin-local over/under probability clears the -110 break-even rate where the core model passes.

Books 47.5–47.5
24
Sat, Sep 5, 12:45 PM EDT

Kent State at South Carolina

Probability add
Recommendation · BovadaOver 53.0
Calibrated over probability57.2%
Final-total model
54.0
Consensus total
53.3
Model edge
+0.8
Regulation model
55.0
Probability gate
P(over) 57.2%
Expected possessions
11.58
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. 90°F, 1.8 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Margin-local over/under probability clears the -110 break-even rate where the core model passes.

Books 53.0–53.5
25
Sat, Sep 5, 4:15 PM EDT

Northern Illinois at Iowa

Probability add
Recommendation · BovadaOver 45.5
Calibrated over probability57.2%
Final-total model
46.0
Consensus total
45.5
Model edge
+0.6
Regulation model
48.3
Probability gate
P(over) 57.2%
Expected possessions
11.24
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. 95°F, 3.1 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Margin-local over/under probability clears the -110 break-even rate where the core model passes.

Books 45.5–45.5
26
Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM EDT

Akron at Wake Forest

Probability add
Recommendation · BovadaOver 48.5
Calibrated over probability57.2%
Final-total model
48.1
Consensus total
48.5
Model edge
−0.4
Regulation model
49.7
Probability gate
P(over) 57.2%
Expected possessions
11.83
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. 100°F, 7.0 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Margin-local over/under probability clears the -110 break-even rate where the core model passes.

Books 48.5–48.5
27
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM EDT

Western Michigan at Michigan

Probability add
Recommendation · BovadaOver 47.5
Calibrated over probability57.2%
Final-total model
47.5
Consensus total
47.5
Model edge
+0.0
Regulation model
48.9
Probability gate
P(over) 57.2%
Expected possessions
11.18
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. 81°F, 3.6 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Margin-local over/under probability clears the -110 break-even rate where the core model passes.

Books 47.5–47.5
28
Sat, Sep 5, 3:45 PM EDT

Oklahoma State at Tulsa

Probability add
Recommendation · BovadaOver 60.0
Calibrated over probability56.8%
Final-total model
59.5
Consensus total
60.3
Model edge
−0.7
Regulation model
61.5
Probability gate
P(over) 56.8%
Expected possessions
11.93
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. 102°F, 4.0 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Margin-local over/under probability clears the -110 break-even rate where the core model passes.

Books 60.0–60.5
29
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM EDT

Arkansas State at Memphis

Probability add
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 55.5
Calibrated under probability53.1%
Final-total model
54.7
Consensus total
55.5
Model edge
−0.8
Regulation model
53.9
Probability gate
P(under) 53.1%
Expected possessions
11.66
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Fair, 89°F, 8.1 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Week 0 scoring evidence is included for Memphis. Margin-local over/under probability clears the -110 break-even rate where the core model passes.

Books 55.5–55.5

Every prediction

The 43-game board.

Passing is a prediction too. The table retains every lined FBS–FBS game, including the 14 games where neither layer clears its gate.

MatchupMarketModelSelection basisCall
UL Monroeat Mississippi State56.057.8Edge +1.8Probability supportsOver 55.5Core model
Ball Stateat Ohio State56.557.8Edge +1.3Probability supportsOver 56.5Core model
UTEPat Oklahoma50.551.6Edge +1.1Probability supportsOver 50.5Core model
Coastal Carolinaat West Virginia56.353.1Edge −3.1Probability supportsUnder 56.5Core model
Florida Internationalat South Florida53.850.6Edge −3.1Probability supportsUnder 54.0Core model
Texas Stateat Texas59.857.6Edge −2.1Probability supportsUnder 60.0Core model
Florida Atlanticat Florida59.558.1Edge −1.4Probability supportsUnder 59.5Core model
Boise Stateat Oregon51.849.9Edge −1.9Probability supportsUnder 52.0Core model
North Texasat Indiana55.553.9Edge −1.6Probability supportsUnder 55.5Core model
Miami (OH)at Pittsburgh49.548.2Edge −1.3Probability supportsUnder 49.5Core model
Miamiat Stanford47.546.2Edge −1.3Probability supportsUnder 47.5Core model
Washington Stateat Washington50.849.1Edge −1.6Probability supportsUnder 51.0Core model
UNLVat Hawai'i58.556.0Edge −2.5Probability supportsUnder 58.5Core model
Tulaneat Duke50.849.2Edge −1.5Probability supportsUnder 51.0Core model
Boston Collegeat Cincinnati51.850.3Edge −1.4Probability supportsUnder 52.0Core model
Libertyat James Madison52.849.9Edge −2.8Probability opposesUnder 53.0Core model
Baylorvs. Auburn59.356.5Edge −2.7Probability opposesUnder 59.5Core model
Louisvillevs. Ole Miss55.553.6Edge −1.9Probability opposesUnder 55.5Core model
San José Stateat Eastern Michigan54.052.7Edge −1.3Probability opposesUnder 54.5Core model
Coloradoat Georgia Tech50.849.7Edge −1.0Probability opposesUnder 51.0Core model
Central Michiganat New Mexico46.845.5Edge −1.3Probability opposesUnder 47.0Core model
Wyomingat Colorado State47.548.3P(over) 60.8%Probability modelOver 47.5Probability add
Wisconsinvs. Notre Dame47.546.6P(over) 57.2%Probability modelOver 47.5Probability add
Kent Stateat South Carolina53.354.0P(over) 57.2%Probability modelOver 53.0Probability add
Northern Illinoisat Iowa45.546.0P(over) 57.2%Probability modelOver 45.5Probability add
Akronat Wake Forest48.548.1P(over) 57.2%Probability modelOver 48.5Probability add
Western Michiganat Michigan47.547.5P(over) 57.2%Probability modelOver 47.5Probability add
Oklahoma Stateat Tulsa60.359.5P(over) 56.8%Probability modelOver 60.0Probability add
Arkansas Stateat Memphis55.554.7P(under) 53.1%Probability modelUnder 55.5Probability add
SMUat Florida State52.851.8No gatePassPassPass
Massachusettsat Rutgers52.853.6No gatePassPassPass
Western Kentuckyat Nevada52.851.9No gatePassPassPass
Fresno Stateat USC51.550.8No gatePassPassPass
Missouri Stateat Texas A&M52.553.2No gatePassPassPass
Clemsonat LSU51.350.6No gatePassPassPass
Toledoat Michigan State49.548.9No gatePassPassPass
UABat Illinois56.355.9No gatePassPassPass
Sam Houstonat Troy53.553.1No gatePassPassPass
Ohioat Nebraska47.547.8No gatePassPassPass
East Carolinaat Alabama53.853.6No gatePassPassPass
Oregon Stateat Houston51.551.6No gatePassPassPass
UCLAat California53.853.6No gatePassPassPass
Marshallat Penn State54.554.6No gatePassPassPass

Read before betting

A prediction is not a price guarantee.

Totals can move quickly, and a half-point can change both the edge and the recommendation. This page reflects a saved market snapshot, assumes standard −110 pricing, and does not account for limits or availability. Available CFBD forecasts are treated as the realized game conditions and translated through the historical weather response. Forecasts can change, so recheck the named book, price and weather before acting.

See the Week 1 spread board