Week 8 totals recommendations.

The model estimates scoring from each team’s offense, defense, pace and field goals. Completed games through Week 7 update team form. Forecast weather and the chance of overtime inform the final scoring distribution.

For the more likely over or under at the saved book total, we cap its projected win rate at 60%, then subtract one percentage point: 60% becomes 59%, and 57% becomes 56%. We recommend it only when that adjusted rate is strictly above 55%. Exactly 55% is a pass. Selection uses the full estimate before rounding.

The recommendations range from 55.04% to 56.9% after adjustment. These are projected chances at the listed total, not a guarantee or an observed betting record. A push is counted separately from a win.