Sept. 3–6 / Week 1

The full Week 1 argument.

Every currently lined FBS-vs-FBS game in the model slate, laid out the same way as Week 0: market, All-Takes ATS and totals, SP+ projected spreads, Cover 3, and a sourced pick from each local perspective when one surfaced.

4lined FBS games
3ATS picks
3totals bets
38local picks sourced

How to read the board

What you’re looking at for each game.

Each game starts with the spread, the total, our projected score and the SP+ projected spread. Below that are our ATS and total picks, every official Cover 3 lock on that matchup, and a published pick from each team’s local coverage when we found one.

Local search: 43 games · 86 team perspectives · checked through Sept. 3, 2026

The board

Kickoff to last call.

All 43 remaining lined FBS-vs-FBS games in chronological order. Every game keeps the same evidence lanes, including explicit ATS and total passes and a fixed slot for each local perspective.

Week 1 slate

Sunday, September 6

3 games
01

4:00 PM EDT · Husky Stadium

Washington State at Washington

Published spreadWashington −23.3Model-build market snapshot
Published total51.5DraftKings · saved price
All-Takes projected scoreModel total 49.6No published ATS projection
SP+ projected spreadWashington by 23.6Neutral-field ratings · +3.45 Washington

All-Takes projections

What our models are saying

Against the spreadPass

The Week 1 ATS model did not publish a recommendation for this matchup. The pass is shown explicitly.

Game totalUnder 51.5

The model projects 49.6 points, 1.6 from the 51.3 market consensus.

Possessions
11.10
Weather
Forecast not yet available

The wider argument

What Cover 3 and SP+ see

Close to the teams

One local pick from each perspective

Washington StatePick search complete
No attributable pick surfaced

We checked team-focused and local outlets for a published game pick. No attributable call surfaced inside this game’s research window.

30-second game budget · perspective preserved
WashingtonPick search complete
No attributable pick surfaced

We checked team-focused and local outlets for a published game pick. No attributable call surfaced inside this game’s research window.

30-second game budget · perspective preserved
02

7:30 PM EDT · Nissan Stadium · Neutral site

Louisville vs. Ole Miss

Published spreadOle Miss −6.5Model-build market snapshot
Published total55.0Bovada · saved price
All-Takes projected scoreLouisville 22.2 · Ole Miss 30.6Side line: Ole Miss −8.4
SP+ projected spreadOle Miss by 5.4Neutral-field ratings · no site adjustment

All-Takes projections

What our models are saying

Against the spreadOle Miss −6.5

The model makes it Ole Miss −8.4, a 1.9-point gap from the saved best price at Bovada.

  • Core football model+1.7 pts
  • Expected possessions+0.1 pts
Game totalUnder 55.0

The model projects 52.9 points, 1.9 from the 54.8 market consensus.

Possessions
11.64
Weather
Forecast not yet available

The wider argument

What Cover 3 and SP+ see

Cover 3 locksSept. 3 episode
5 official locks
  • Bud ElliottLouisville–Ole Miss under 55.5
  • Danny KanellLouisville +7
  • Tom FornelliLouisville +7
  • Cover 3 producersLouisville–Ole Miss 1H under 28.5
  • Cover 3 producersOle Miss −6.5

The number shown is the one used on the show.

Listen to the episode ↗Podcast feed ↗

Close to the teams

One local pick from each perspective

03

7:30 PM EDT · Lambeau Field · Neutral site

Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame

Published spreadNotre Dame −20.5Model-build market snapshot
Published total46.5Bovada · saved price
All-Takes projected scoreWisconsin 9.0 · Notre Dame 36.7Side line: Notre Dame −27.6
SP+ projected spreadNotre Dame by 22.7Neutral-field ratings · no site adjustment

All-Takes projections

What our models are saying

Against the spreadNotre Dame −20.5

The model makes it Notre Dame −27.6, a 7.1-point gap from the saved best price at Bovada.

  • Core football model+7.0 pts
  • 2026 roster check+0.1 pts
Game totalOver 46.5

The model projects 45.7 points, 0.8 from the 46.5 market consensus.

Possessions
11.33
Weather
Forecast not yet available

The wider argument

What Cover 3 and SP+ see

Cover 3 locksSept. 3 episode
5 official locks
  • Bud ElliottWisconsin–Notre Dame 1H under 24.5
  • Chip PattersonNotre Dame −20
  • Danny KanellWisconsin 1H +11.5
  • Tom FornelliWisconsin–Notre Dame under 47.53-star lock
  • Cover 3 producersWisconsin team total under 13.5

The number shown is the one used on the show.

Listen to the episode ↗Podcast feed ↗
ESPN SP+Projected spread
Notre Dame by 22.7

SP+ makes the neutral-field gap Notre Dame by 22.7. This is a neutral-site game, so that is also the matchup line.

Ratings sheet ↗ESPN SP+ explainer ↗

Close to the teams

One local pick from each perspective

WisconsinWisconsin upset
ESPN Madison hosts

The local radio segment makes the contrarian call for a Badgers upset at Lambeau.

ESPN Madison · Aug. 14 ↗

Week 1 slate

Monday, September 7

1 game
04

7:30 PM EDT · Doak Campbell Stadium

SMU at Florida State

Published spreadSMU −3Model-build market snapshot
Published total53.3Consensus · saved price
All-Takes projected scoreSMU 25.6 · Florida State 26.7Side line: Florida State −1.2
SP+ projected spreadSMU by 0.7Neutral-field ratings · +3.45 Florida State

All-Takes projections

What our models are saying

Against the spreadFlorida State +3

The model makes it Florida State −1.2, a 4.2-point gap from the saved best price at Bovada.

  • Core football model+3.2 pts
  • Year-over-year production+0.5 pts
  • Expected possessions+0.3 pts
Game totalPass

The model projects 52.3 points, 1.0 from the 53.3 market consensus.

Possessions
11.49
Weather
Forecast not yet available

The wider argument

What Cover 3 and SP+ see

Close to the teams

One local pick from each perspective

SMUPick search complete
No attributable pick surfaced

We checked team-focused and local outlets for a published game pick. No attributable call surfaced inside this game’s research window.

30-second game budget · perspective preserved
Florida StateFlorida State upset
JD PicKell

PicKell likes the Seminoles' extra prep and Week 0 tune-up to produce an upset of SMU.

Warchant / On3 · Aug. 5 ↗

Source notes

Every lane keeps its own meaning.

Slate count. The current model export contains 43 remaining lined FBS-vs-FBS games. The original 51-game file included eight completed Week 0 games that have since been removed. The board keeps that auditable 43 rather than padding the count with FCS matchups the model did not price.

All-Takes ATS. The 3 current side recommendations are matched into their game cards from the published ATS file. Every other card says Pass instead of silently omitting the lane.

All-Takes totals. The totals model recommends 1 overs and 2 unders. Its 1 passes remain visible.

SP+. The Sept. 3 ratings sheet is converted into a projected spread by comparing the two neutral-field ratings and adding 3.45 points for the home team. Neutral-site games get no home-field adjustment.

Cover 3. The four host cards have 36 Week 1 locks. Kenzie Brooks added 2 Club Kenz plays, and the show’s producers added 3 more. All 39 calls on FBS-vs-FBS games appear above across 21 matchups. Bud Elliott’s Georgia −47 against Tennessee State and Tom Fornelli’s Tennessee −46.5 against Furman are the two FCS games outside our model slate.

Local picks. We checked 43 matchups and both team perspectives, using team-focused sites, local news, student papers, podcasts and networks including SB Nation, On3 and 247Sports. A blank side is labeled as an unsuccessful search, not treated as evidence that no local view exists.

SP+ ratings sheet ↗ESPN SP+ explainer ↗Cover 3 Week 1 locks episode ↗