pregame searches across the 23 recommended matchups
The injury workflow cleared both teams before kickoff for every side recommendation. Seven ATS picks carried a confirmed availability item and went 2–5.
2026 college football · Week 2 review · Final
Agreement did not protect Week 2.
The frozen All-Takes side card finished 8–15. The totals card went 15–17.
Eleven side recommendations matched CFBPredictor’s line read, and those games went 4–7. Week 2 turned consensus into something to review, not something to trust automatically.
49FBS-vs-FBS finals
8–15Published ATS
15–17Published totals
4–7ATS with CFBP agreement
The opening read
The side process needs the harder look.
The 23 published spread recommendations went 8–15. The original base-model plays were 5–8; the nine matchup additions went 3–6; and the manual Oregon adjustment lost by the largest cover margin on the card.
Totals were closer to even at 15–17. The page below grades every saved number, then keeps CFBPredictor’s line read and SP+’s winner projection in separate lanes so outside agreement cannot quietly become an All-Takes result.
Reopen the frozen Week 2 pregame board →The checks around the card
Injuries were captured. Weather changed one total.
These are process audits, not excuses for the final records.
confirmed pregame starter change on a recommended game
Sacramento State’s move from Carson Conklin to Jackson Sharman was reconciled before kickoff. Rutgers’ AJ Surace start was found after kickoff and remains labeled as a research miss.
on 8 bets with a nonzero adjustment
Most adjustments were small. Oregon–Oklahoma State was the only published total moved across the market line by weather; under 57.5 lost in a 70-point game.
CFBPredictor line reads across all 49 games
SP+ picked 34 of 49 outright winners. Neither record is folded into the All-Takes card.
The games that shaped the review
Six results carry the main lessons.
Two clean doubles, two major misses, one half-point loss and the week’s most important injury check.
Final · Oregon 31, Oklahoma State 39
Oregon at Oklahoma State
The manual Oregon upgrade produced the board’s largest miss.
All Takes laid 22.5 with Oregon. Oklahoma State won 39–31, sending the pick 30.5 points past the wrong side of the spread. The inferred ATQ translation was even more aggressive at Oregon −27.5, while CFBPredictor’s Oklahoma State +22.5 line read was the useful counterweight.
Weather moved the All-Takes scoring forecast from 57.72 to 56.45 and across the saved 57.5 total. That made Oregon–Oklahoma State the only published Week 2 total whose raw model direction flipped because of weather. The game reached 70, so the weather-dependent under also lost.
What travels to Week 3
Game recap and box score ↗The Oklahoma State team-strength inference needs a full reset; neither the side override nor the weather-driven total survived the result.
Final · UNLV 6, North Texas 44
UNLV at North Texas
North Texas turned the board’s biggest availability concern into its best spread result.
North Texas entered with three cornerbacks ruled out and was still a 3.5-point home underdog on the frozen card. The Mean Green won 44–6, covering by 41.5 points—the widest win among the 23 All-Takes side recommendations.
The under 57 also won with seven points to spare. CFBPredictor leaned the other way, so this was evidence for the All-Takes matchup case rather than a consensus win.
What travels to Week 3
Game recap and box score ↗The injury report was real, but it did not outweigh the broader team and matchup edge in this game.
Final · UTSA 31, Texas State 26
UTSA at Texas State
UTSA supplied the cleanest agreement win on the card.
All Takes took UTSA +1.5, and CFBPredictor also preferred the Roadrunners against the spread. UTSA won 31–26, leaving 6.5 points of room on the saved number.
The under 66.5 finished comfortably at 57. This was one of only two games where an All-Takes side agreed with CFBPredictor and both the side and total won.
What travels to Week 3
Game recap and box score ↗A strong side, a useful outside-model confirmation and a total that matched the scoring range.
Final · Georgia State 31, Kennesaw State 17
Georgia State at Kennesaw State
Georgia State joined UTSA as the other clean consensus double.
Georgia State was getting 9.5 and won outright, 31–17. The spread ticket cleared by 23.5 points, and CFBPredictor’s line read supported the same side.
The under 54.5 also won at a 48-point final. In a difficult week for model agreement, this was the other game where both All-Takes recommendations and the outside side read all landed together.
What travels to Week 3
Game recap and box score ↗One of the week’s few results where every main betting lane reinforced the same story.
Final · Ohio State 23, Texas 24
Ohio State at Texas
Texas won the game and missed the spread by half a point.
Texas beat Ohio State 24–23. The saved recommendation was Texas −1.5, so the side lost by 0.5. CFBPredictor agreed with Texas against its captured line and lost the same narrow decision.
The under 49.5 won by 2.5 points. Texas had ruled running back Derrek Cooper out before kickoff; that availability item was captured on the board, but this result is better described as a price miss than a missed winner.
What travels to Week 3
Game recap and box score ↗The winner read was right, the spread price was not, and the total supplied the usable edge.
Final · Sacramento State 3, Fresno State 49
Sacramento State at Fresno State
The quarterback was correctly identified; the team-strength read was still far off.
Sacramento State ruled out Carson Conklin and confirmed Jackson Sharman as the starter. The pregame process had already moved to Sharman, so there was no unresolved quarterback mismatch at kickoff.
Fresno State won 49–3. Sacramento State +18.5 missed by 27.5 points, and CFBPredictor’s underdog line read lost too. Capturing the starter protected the input; it did not make the broader projection accurate.
What travels to Week 3
Game recap and box score ↗Availability reconciliation worked as designed, while the rating and matchup estimate failed decisively.
Every final, every frozen grade
The complete 49-game review board.
ATS and total grades use the exact published team and saved price. CFBPredictor is graded against its captured DraftKings line as an outside projection, while SP+ receives a winner-only grade.
Week 2 finals
Friday, September 11
2 games01
Rutgers at Boston College
21–28Boston College won by 7. 49 points finished 5.5 below the saved 54.5 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalUnder 54.5Win
CFBPredictor line readRutgers +3Loss
SP+ winner readRutgers by 1.3Wrong winner
Pregame source context 3
Local readOn the Banks: Rutgers 34, Boston College 24
Local readBoston.com: Boston College
Postgame injury auditDylan Lonergan was out and AJ Surace started. This was found after kickoff, so it diagnoses the research miss without changing the frozen card. Field Level Media ↗
02
Missouri at Kansas
38–21Missouri won by 17. 59 points finished 8.5 above the saved 50.5 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalUnder 50.5Loss
CFBPredictor line readKansas +5.5Loss
SP+ winner readMissouri by 2.9Right winner
Pregame source context 4
Cover 3Chip Patterson: Kansas–Missouri over 50.5
Cover 3Danny Kanell: Kansas 1H +3.5
Local readKU Sports: Missouri 28, Kansas 23
Weather adjustmentWeather moved the forecast -0.06 points to 49.02.
Week 2 finals
Saturday, September 12
47 games03
Oregon at Oklahoma State
31–39Oklahoma State won by 8. 70 points finished 12.5 above the saved 57.5 total.
All-Takes ATSOregon −22.5Loss
All-Takes totalUnder 57.5Loss
CFBPredictor line readOklahoma State +22.5Win
SP+ winner readOregon by 20.3Wrong winner
Pregame source context 3
Local readAddicted To Quack: Inferred ATQ: Oregon −27.5 · Total 55.5
Local readOklahoma State Cowboys On SI: Oregon 44, Oklahoma State 34
Weather changed the side of the totalWeather moved the forecast -1.27 points to 56.45.
04
Arizona State at Texas A&M
20–48Texas A&M won by 28. 68 points finished 17.5 above the saved 50.5 total.
All-Takes ATSArizona State +14.5Loss
All-Takes totalUnder 50.5Loss
CFBPredictor line readTexas A&M −14.5Win
SP+ winner readTexas A&M by 17.7Right winner
Pregame source context 5
Cover 3Bud Elliott: Arizona State +14.5
Cover 3Chip Patterson: Arizona State team total over 17.5
Cover 3Danny Kanell: Arizona State +14.5
Cover 3Chip Patterson: Arizona State +517 ML sprinkle
Local readDave Campbell's Texas Football: Texas A&M 24, Arizona State 17
05
South Florida at Army
28–24South Florida won by 4. 52 points finished 5.0 above the saved 47 total.
All-Takes ATSArmy −3.5Loss
All-Takes totalUnder 47Loss
CFBPredictor line readSouth Florida +3.5Win
SP+ winner readArmy by 7.9Wrong winner
06
Oklahoma at Michigan
10–17Michigan won by 7. 27 points finished 16.5 below the saved 43.5 total.
All-Takes ATSOklahoma −5.5Loss
All-Takes totalPassPass
CFBPredictor line readMichigan +5.5Win
SP+ winner readOklahoma by 7.0Wrong winner
Pregame source context 7
Cover 3Chip Patterson: Michigan 1H team total under 9.5
Cover 3Danny Kanell: Michigan +5.5
Cover 3Danny Kanell: Michigan–Oklahoma 1H under 21.5
Cover 3Tom Fornelli: Michigan–Oklahoma under 43.5
Local readSooners Wire: Oklahoma — unanimous
Local readMaize n Brew: Michigan
Weather adjustmentWeather moved the forecast -0.45 points to 42.92.
07
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech
21–44Virginia Tech won by 23. 65 points finished 14.5 above the saved 50.5 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalUnder 50.5Loss
CFBPredictor line readVirginia Tech −19.5Win
SP+ winner readVirginia Tech by 21.0Right winner
Pregame source context 1
Local readTechSideline: Virginia Tech 31, Old Dominion 14
08
Penn State at Temple
27–9Penn State won by 18. 36 points finished 13.5 below the saved 49.5 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalOver 49.5Loss
CFBPredictor line readTemple +23.5Win
SP+ winner readPenn State by 22.2Right winner
Pregame source context 2
Cover 3Danny Kanell: Penn State −23.5
Local readPenn State Nittany Lions On SI: Penn State — unanimous
09
Washington State at Kansas State
7–34Kansas State won by 27. 41 points finished 7.8 below the saved 48.75 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalOver 48.75Loss
CFBPredictor line readWashington State +18.5Loss
SP+ winner readKansas State by 18.9Right winner
Pregame source context 2
Cover 3Bud Elliott: Washington State +18
Cover 3Tom Fornelli: Kansas State −17.5
10
App State at East Carolina
27–24App State won by 3. 51 points finished 5.5 below the saved 56.5 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalUnder 56.5Win
CFBPredictor line readApp State +7.5Win
SP+ winner readEast Carolina by 1.6Wrong winner
Pregame source context 2
Cover 3Bud Elliott: App State +7.5
Cover 3Bud Elliott: App State +244 ML sprinkle
11
Wake Forest at Purdue
38–36Wake Forest won by 2. 74 points finished 24.3 above the saved 49.75 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalOver 49.75Win
CFBPredictor line readPurdue +3Win
SP+ winner readPurdue by 2.1Wrong winner
Pregame source context 4
Cover 3Tom Fornelli: Purdue +3.5
Cover 3Danny Kanell: Purdue +138 ML sprinkle
Cover 3Tom Fornelli: Purdue +138 ML sprinkle
Local readBlogger So Dear: Wake Forest
12
Western Kentucky at Georgia
20–70Georgia won by 50. 90 points finished 34.5 above the saved 55.5 total.
All-Takes ATSGeorgia −40.5Win
All-Takes totalUnder 55.5Loss
CFBPredictor line readGeorgia −40.5Win
SP+ winner readGeorgia by 44.3Right winner
13
UL Monroe at UAB
20–26UAB won by 6. 46 points finished 9.8 below the saved 55.75 total.
All-Takes ATSUAB −9.5Loss
All-Takes totalPassPass
CFBPredictor line readUAB −10Loss
SP+ winner readUAB by 19.6Right winner
14
Duke at Illinois
31–27Duke won by 4. 58 points finished 6.5 above the saved 51.5 total.
All-Takes ATSIllinois −5.5Loss
All-Takes totalPassPass
CFBPredictor line readDuke +6Win
SP+ winner readIllinois by 3.4Wrong winner
Pregame source context 4
Cover 3Tom Fornelli: Illinois–Duke over 51.5
Cover 3Danny Kanell: Duke +186 ML sprinkle
Local readThe Champaign Room: Illinois −5.5 · Illinois 31, Duke 20
Pregame availabilityBret Bielema confirmed starting right guard Brandon Henderson would not play. WCIA 3 via Yahoo Sports ↗
15
UTSA at Texas State
31–26UTSA won by 5. 57 points finished 9.5 below the saved 66.5 total.
All-Takes ATSUTSA +1.5Win
All-Takes totalUnder 66.5Win
CFBPredictor line readUTSA +1.5Win
SP+ winner readUTSA by 8.1Right winner
16
Arizona at BYU
17–28BYU won by 11. 45 points finished 2.8 below the saved 47.75 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalPassPass
CFBPredictor line readBYU −7.5Win
SP+ winner readBYU by 6.7Right winner
Pregame source context 2
Cover 3Danny Kanell: Arizona +7.5
Local readArizona Desert Swarm: BYU — 4 of 6
17
Alabama at Kentucky
45–17Alabama won by 28. 62 points finished 12.8 above the saved 49.25 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalPassPass
CFBPredictor line readKentucky +10.5Loss
SP+ winner readAlabama by 9.0Right winner
Pregame source context 3
Cover 3Danny Kanell: Kentucky +10.5
Cover 3Chip Patterson: Kentucky +315 ML sprinkle
Local readTideFans.com: Alabama 31, Kentucky 14
18
California at Syracuse
21–18California won by 3. 39 points finished 17.5 below the saved 56.5 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalUnder 56.5Win
CFBPredictor line readSyracuse −3.5Loss
SP+ winner readSyracuse by 8.7Wrong winner
Pregame source context 1
Local readTroy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician: Syracuse 31, California 27
19
UCF at Pittsburgh
7–12Pittsburgh won by 5. 19 points finished 37.5 below the saved 56.5 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalUnder 56.5Win
CFBPredictor line readPittsburgh −7Loss
SP+ winner readPittsburgh by 6.7Right winner
Pregame source context 1
Cover 3Bud Elliott: UCF +235 ML sprinkle
20
Utah State at Washington
14–16Washington won by 2. 30 points finished 25.5 below the saved 55.5 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalPassPass
CFBPredictor line readUtah State +26.5Win
SP+ winner readWashington by 26.0Right winner
Pregame source context 2
Cover 3Bud Elliott: Washington −26.5
Local readUW Dawg Pound: Washington
21
Maryland at UConn
38–14Maryland won by 24. 52 points finished 0.5 below the saved 52.5 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalUnder 52.5Win
CFBPredictor line readUConn +12.5Loss
SP+ winner readMaryland by 13.0Right winner
Pregame source context 1
Cover 3Bud Elliott: Maryland −13
22
Eastern Michigan at Michigan State
7–35Michigan State won by 28. 42 points finished 7.8 below the saved 49.75 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalPassPass
CFBPredictor line readEastern Michigan +17.5Loss
SP+ winner readMichigan State by 19.1Right winner
Pregame source context 2
Local readMichigan State Spartans On SI: Michigan State 38, Eastern Michigan 10
Weather changed the side of the totalWeather moved the forecast -0.59 points to 49.57.
23
Rice at Notre Dame
0–52Notre Dame won by 52. 52 points finished 3.0 below the saved 55 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalOver 55Loss
CFBPredictor line readRice +44.5Loss
SP+ winner readNotre Dame by 39.7Right winner
Pregame source context 3
Cover 3Chip Patterson: Rice +44.5
Cover 3Tom Fornelli: Notre Dame team total over 48.5
Weather adjustmentWeather moved the forecast -0.10 points to 55.34.
24
Mississippi State at Minnesota
38–13Mississippi State won by 25. 51 points finished 4.5 below the saved 55.5 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalUnder 55.5Win
CFBPredictor line readMinnesota +1.5Loss
SP+ winner readMinnesota by 2.7Wrong winner
Pregame source context 3
Cover 3Bud Elliott: Minnesota 1H +0.5
Local readThe Daily Gopher: Minnesota
Weather adjustmentWeather moved the forecast -0.74 points to 52.51.
25
UNLV at North Texas
6–44North Texas won by 38. 50 points finished 7.0 below the saved 57 total.
All-Takes ATSNorth Texas +3.5Win
All-Takes totalUnder 57Win
CFBPredictor line readUNLV −3.5Loss
SP+ winner readUNLV by 13.0Wrong winner
Pregame source context 3
Cover 3Danny Kanell: North Texas +140 ML sprinkle
Pregame availabilityCaden Jenkins, Chase Canada and Zach Johnson were all unavailable; BJ Allen Jr. was slated to start as the room rotated. North Texas Athletics ↗
Weather adjustmentWeather moved the forecast -0.06 points to 55.85.
26
Delaware at Vanderbilt
26–35Vanderbilt won by 9. 61 points finished 6.0 above the saved 55 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalUnder 55Loss
CFBPredictor line readVanderbilt −20.5Loss
SP+ winner readVanderbilt by 22.2Right winner
Pregame source context 1
Local readVandySports: Vanderbilt 35, Delaware 17
27
Memphis at Boise State
20–38Boise State won by 18. 58 points finished 3.0 above the saved 55 total.
All-Takes ATSMemphis +9.5Loss
All-Takes totalUnder 55Loss
CFBPredictor line readMemphis +8.5Loss
SP+ winner readBoise State by 5.6Right winner
Pregame source context 7
Cover 3Chip Patterson: Memphis team total over 22.5
Cover 3Tom Fornelli: Boise State–Memphis under 55
Cover 3Bud Elliott: Memphis +285 ML sprinkle
Cover 3Chip Patterson: Memphis +285 ML sprinkle
Cover 3Danny Kanell: Memphis +285 ML sprinkle
Local readBoise State Broncos On SI: Boise State 27, Memphis 23
Weather adjustmentWeather moved the forecast -0.08 points to 52.82.
28
Jacksonville State at Ohio
27–29Ohio won by 2. 56 points finished 5.5 above the saved 50.5 total.
All-Takes ATSOhio −2.5Loss
All-Takes totalPassPass
CFBPredictor line readJacksonville State +3Win
SP+ winner readJacksonville State by 6.9Wrong winner
29
Buffalo at Florida International
20–33Florida International won by 13. 53 points finished 5.5 above the saved 47.5 total.
All-Takes ATSBuffalo +10.5Loss
All-Takes totalPassPass
CFBPredictor line readBuffalo +10.5Loss
SP+ winner readFlorida International by 0.6Right winner
Pregame source context 2
Cover 3Bud Elliott: FIU −10
Weather changed the side of the totalWeather moved the forecast -0.98 points to 46.89.
30
Georgia State at Kennesaw State
31–17Georgia State won by 14. 48 points finished 6.5 below the saved 54.5 total.
All-Takes ATSGeorgia State +9.5Win
All-Takes totalUnder 54.5Win
CFBPredictor line readGeorgia State +9.5Win
SP+ winner readKennesaw State by 17.8Wrong winner
31
Tennessee at Georgia Tech
45–24Tennessee won by 21. 69 points finished 13.5 above the saved 55.5 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalUnder 55.5Loss
CFBPredictor line readGeorgia Tech +12.5Loss
SP+ winner readTennessee by 15.6Right winner
Pregame source context 2
Cover 3Danny Kanell: Georgia Tech +12.5
Local readRocky Top Insider: Tennessee 33, Georgia Tech 22
32
Middle Tennessee at Marshall
26–28Marshall won by 2. 54 points finished 3.5 below the saved 57.5 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalUnder 57.5Win
CFBPredictor line readMiddle Tennessee +13.5Win
SP+ winner readMarshall by 8.9Right winner
33
South Alabama at Tulane
24–28Tulane won by 4. 52 points finished 2.5 above the saved 49.5 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalUnder 49.5Loss
CFBPredictor line readSouth Alabama +9.5Win
SP+ winner readTulane by 6.5Right winner
Pregame source context 2
Cover 3Bud Elliott: South Alabama +300 ML sprinkle
Local readTulane Green Wave On SI: Tulane — both reporters
34
Bowling Green at Nebraska
7–56Nebraska won by 49. 63 points finished 11.3 above the saved 51.75 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalPassPass
CFBPredictor line readBowling Green +28.5Loss
SP+ winner readNebraska by 27.4Right winner
Pregame source context 2
Local readCorn Nation: Nebraska
Weather changed the side of the totalWeather moved the forecast -1.26 points to 51.33.
35
Tulsa at Sam Houston
23–17Tulsa won by 6. 40 points finished 11.5 below the saved 51.5 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalPassPass
CFBPredictor line readTulsa −13.5Loss
SP+ winner readTulsa by 16.7Right winner
Pregame source context 2
Cover 3Bud Elliott: Sam Houston +14
Cover 3Bud Elliott: Sam Houston +440 ML sprinkle
36
San Diego State at UCLA
10–28UCLA won by 18. 38 points finished 17.5 below the saved 55.5 total.
All-Takes ATSSan Diego State +12Loss
All-Takes totalUnder 55.5Win
CFBPredictor line readSan Diego State +11.5Loss
SP+ winner readUCLA by 8.6Right winner
37
Navy at Florida Atlantic
30–38Florida Atlantic won by 8. 68 points finished 9.5 above the saved 58.5 total.
All-Takes ATSFlorida Atlantic +5Win
All-Takes totalUnder 58.5Loss
CFBPredictor line readFlorida Atlantic +4.5Win
SP+ winner readNavy by 13.3Wrong winner
38
Georgia Southern at Clemson
7–22Clemson won by 15. 29 points finished 26.8 below the saved 55.75 total.
All-Takes ATSGeorgia Southern +20.5Win
All-Takes totalPassPass
CFBPredictor line readClemson −20.5Loss
SP+ winner readClemson by 13.5Right winner
Pregame source context 3
Cover 3Danny Kanell: Georgia Southern +20.5
Local readClemson Sports Media: Clemson — unanimous
Pregame availabilityDabo Swinney listed Christopher Vizzina and Tait Reynolds as co-starters and said both would play. FOX Carolina ↗
39
Ohio State at Texas
23–24Texas won by 1. 47 points finished 2.5 below the saved 49.5 total.
All-Takes ATSTexas −1.5Loss
All-Takes totalUnder 49.5Win
CFBPredictor line readTexas −1.5Loss
SP+ winner readOhio State by 2.0Wrong winner
Pregame source context 5
Cover 3Chip Patterson: Texas −1
Cover 3Chip Patterson: Ohio State 3Q PK
Cover 3Danny Kanell: Texas–Ohio State under 49.5
Cover 3Tom Fornelli: Ohio State +2
Pregame availabilityDerrek Cooper was ruled out after an injury in the opener. Austin American-Statesman via Yahoo Sports ↗
40
Iowa State at Iowa
13–16Iowa won by 3. 29 points finished 11.5 below the saved 40.5 total.
All-Takes ATSIowa State +14Win
All-Takes totalPassPass
CFBPredictor line readIowa −14Loss
SP+ winner readIowa by 17.4Right winner
Pregame source context 5
Cover 3Bud Elliott: Iowa −13.5
Cover 3Chip Patterson: Iowa −13.5
Cover 3Danny Kanell: Iowa −13.5
Cover 3Tom Fornelli: Iowa −13.5
Local readBlack Heart Gold Pants: Iowa −13.5 · Over 40.5
41
Texas Tech at Oregon State
35–24Texas Tech won by 11. 59 points finished 5.3 above the saved 53.75 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalOver 53.75Win
CFBPredictor line readOregon State +26.5Win
SP+ winner readTexas Tech by 23.2Right winner
42
Louisiana Tech at LSU
14–45LSU won by 31. 59 points finished 3.0 above the saved 56 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalUnder 56Loss
CFBPredictor line readLSU −35.5Loss
SP+ winner readLSU by 29.5Right winner
Pregame source context 1
Local readCrain & Company: LSU — unanimous
43
Southern Miss at Auburn
8–43Auburn won by 35. 51 points finished 5.5 below the saved 56.5 total.
All-Takes ATSAuburn −33.5Win
All-Takes totalOver 56.5Loss
CFBPredictor line readSouthern Miss +33.5Loss
SP+ winner readAuburn by 24.3Right winner
Pregame source context 3
Cover 3Tom Fornelli: Auburn team total over 44.5
Local readSouthern Miss Golden Eagles On SI: Auburn — both reporters
Local readAuburn Tigers On SI: Auburn — both reporters
44
Charlotte at Ole Miss
9–41Ole Miss won by 32. 50 points finished 10.5 below the saved 60.5 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalPassPass
CFBPredictor line readCharlotte +47.5Win
SP+ winner readOle Miss by 41.8Right winner
Pregame source context 2
Cover 3Chip Patterson: Ole Miss 1H team total over 30.5
Local readOle Miss Rebels On SI: Ole Miss
45
North Dakota State at Air Force
38–32North Dakota State won by 6. 70 points finished 22.5 above the saved 47.5 total.
All-Takes ATSAir Force +2.5Loss
All-Takes totalUnder 47.5Loss
CFBPredictor line readAir Force +2.5Loss
SP+ winner readAir Force by 1.0Wrong winner
Pregame source context 2
Cover 3Tom Fornelli: Air Force +112 ML sprinkle
Weather adjustmentWeather moved the forecast -0.29 points to 45.82.
46
Arkansas at Utah
10–43Utah won by 33. 53 points finished 2.0 below the saved 55 total.
All-Takes ATSPassPass
All-Takes totalUnder 55Win
CFBPredictor line readArkansas +12.5Loss
SP+ winner readUtah by 12.2Right winner
Pregame source context 2
Local read4th & Five: Utah 27, Arkansas 23 · Arkansas +11.5
Weather adjustmentWeather moved the forecast -0.08 points to 52.95.
47
Sacramento State at Fresno State
3–49Fresno State won by 46. 52 points finished 6.8 above the saved 45.25 total.
All-Takes ATSSacramento State +18.5Loss
All-Takes totalPassPass
CFBPredictor line readSacramento State +18.5Loss
SP+ winner readFresno State by 14.0Right winner
Pregame source context 2
Pregame availabilityCarson Conklin was out with an injury to his throwing arm. The board already used Jackson Sharman, so the confirmed starter matched the model input. Sacramento State Athletics ↗
Weather changed the side of the totalWeather moved the forecast -0.52 points to 45.24.
48
Louisiana at USC
30–49USC won by 19. 79 points finished 19.5 above the saved 59.5 total.
All-Takes ATSUSC −30.5Loss
All-Takes totalPassPass
CFBPredictor line readLouisiana +30.5Win
SP+ winner readUSC by 25.9Right winner
Pregame source context 1
Pregame availabilityShelton Sampson Jr. was listed out after leaving the opener. RotoWire ↗
49
New Mexico State at Hawai'i
19–29Hawai'i won by 10. 48 points finished 1.8 below the saved 49.75 total.
All-Takes ATSNew Mexico State +8Loss
All-Takes totalPassPass
CFBPredictor line readHawai'i −8.5Win
SP+ winner readHawai'i by 10.5Right winner
Pregame source context 2
Cover 3Bud Elliott: New Mexico State +245 ML sprinkle
Pregame availabilityTimmy Chang said Micah Alejado would be ready, superseding an earlier questionable tag. Hawaii News Now ↗
The Week 3 decision
Move the new layers back toward evidence.
Week 2 was poor enough to require changes in confidence before it justifies changes in the underlying football model.
Put the expanded side lane back in shadow mode.
The nine matchup additions went 3–6. Keep studying the signals, but stop treating the historical replay as sufficient live validation.
Raise the burden for a qualitative rating change.
The Oregon override crossed the original model and CFBPredictor countercase, then missed by 30.5 points ATS. Future overrides need stronger independent evidence and a smaller first move.
Use outside consensus as context, not promotion.
The All-Takes/CFBP agreement group went 4–7. Agreement did not improve the card enough to serve as a ranking rule.
Keep the search discipline and separate it from the grade.
The workflow caught meaningful absences and reconciled the one pregame quarterback change. The rating can still be wrong after the correct players are entered.
Recordkeeping note
The pregame board stays frozen.
All-Takes ATS results use the saved recommendation and named-book spread. Totals use the displayed best-book number, falling back to the saved consensus only when no named total was present.
Passes remain visible and do not count as wins or losses. Injury and weather notes preserve what was known before kickoff; the postgame Rutgers quarterback finding is explicitly separated.
Final scores come from the retained official CFBD results pull. Game links open the corresponding ESPN recap and box score.